We address the problem of continual learning in multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models for handling sequential input-output observations. Our approach extends the existing prior-posterior recursion of online Bayesian inference, i.e.\ past posterior discoveries become future prior beliefs, to the infinite functional space setting of GP. For a reason of scalability, we introduce variational inference together with an sparse approximation based on inducing inputs. As a consequence, we obtain tractable continual lower-bounds where two novel Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences intervene in a natural way. The key technical property of our method is the recursive reconstruction of conditional GP priors conditioned on the variational parameters learned so far. To achieve this goal, we introduce a novel factorization of past variational distributions, where the predictive GP equation propagates the posterior uncertainty forward. We then demonstrate that it is possible to derive GP models over many types of sequential observations, either discrete or continuous and amenable to stochastic optimization. The continual inference approach is also applicable to scenarios where potential multi-channel or heterogeneous observations might appear. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the method is fully scalable, shows a reliable performance and is robust to uncertainty error propagation over a plenty of synthetic and real-world datasets.
Exploration in environments with continuous control and sparse rewards remains a key challenge in reinforcement learning (RL). Recently, surprise has been used as an intrinsic reward that encourages systematic and efficient exploration. We introduce a new definition of surprise and its RL implementation named Variational Assorted Surprise Exploration (VASE). VASE uses a Bayesian neural network as a model of the environment dynamics and is trained using variational inference, alternately updating the accuracy of the agent's model and policy. Our experiments show that in continuous control sparse reward environments VASE outperforms other surprise-based exploration techniques.
Energy-based models (EBMs) are powerful probabilistic models, but suffer from intractable sampling and density evaluation due to the partition function. As a result, inference in EBMs relies on approximate sampling algorithms, leading to a mismatch between the model and inference. Motivated by this, we consider the sampler-induced distribution as the model of interest and maximize the likelihood of this model. This yields a class of energy-inspired models (EIMs) that incorporate learned energy functions while still providing exact samples and tractable log-likelihood lower bounds. We describe and evaluate three instantiations of such models based on truncated rejection sampling, self-normalized importance sampling, and Hamiltonian importance sampling. These models outperform or perform comparably to the recently proposed Learned Accept/Reject Sampling algorithm and provide new insights on ranking Noise Contrastive Estimation and Contrastive Predictive Coding. Moreover, EIMs allow us to generalize a recent connection between multi-sample variational lower bounds and auxiliary variable variational inference. We show how recent variational bounds can be unified with EIMs as the variational family.
Thompson sampling is an efficient algorithm for sequential decision making, which exploits the posterior uncertainty to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. There has been significant recent interest in integrating Bayesian neural networks into Thompson sampling. Most of these methods rely on global variable uncertainty for exploration. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic modeling framework for Thompson sampling, where local latent variable uncertainty is used to sample the mean reward. Variational inference is used to approximate the posterior of the local variable, and semi-implicit structure is further introduced to enhance its expressiveness. Our experimental results on eight contextual bandit benchmark datasets show that Thompson sampling guided by local uncertainty achieves state-of-the-art performance while having low computational complexity.
The fundamental challenge of planning for multi-step manipulation is to find effective and plausible action sequences that lead to the task goal. We present Cascaded Variational Inference (CAVIN) Planner, a model-based method that hierarchically generates plans by sampling from latent spaces. To facilitate planning over long time horizons, our method learns latent representations that decouple the prediction of high-level effects from the generation of low-level motions through cascaded variational inference. This enables us to model dynamics at two different levels of temporal resolutions for hierarchical planning. We evaluate our approach in three multi-step robotic manipulation tasks in cluttered tabletop environments given high-dimensional observations. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art model-based methods by strategically interacting with multiple objects.
In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP). By introducing auxiliary latent random variables (branching structure, P\'{o}lya-Gamma random variables and latent marked Poisson processes), the likelihood is converted to two decoupled components with a Gaussian form which allows for an efficient conjugate analytical inference. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. Furthermore, we extend the EM algorithm to an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm: mean-field variational inference. We demonstrate the performance of two algorithms on simulated fictitious data. Experiments on real data show that our proposed inference algorithms can recover well the underlying prompting characteristics efficiently.
The holy grail in deep neural network research is porting the memory- and computation-intensive network models on embedded platforms with a minimal compromise in model accuracy. To this end, we propose a novel approach, termed as Variational Student, where we reap the benefits of compressibility of the knowledge distillation (KD) framework, and sparsity inducing abilities of variational inference (VI) techniques. Essentially, we build a sparse student network, whose sparsity is induced by the variational parameters found via optimizing a loss function based on VI, leveraging the knowledge learnt by an accurate but complex pre-trained teacher network. Further, for sparsity enhancement, we also employ a Block Sparse Regularizer on a concatenated tensor of teacher and student network weights. We demonstrate that the marriage of KD and the VI techniques inherits compression properties from the KD framework, and enhances levels of sparsity from the VI approach, with minimal compromise in the model accuracy. We benchmark our results on LeNet MLP and VGGNet (CNN) and illustrate a memory footprint reduction of 64x and 213x on these MLP and CNN variants, respectively, without a need to retrain the teacher network. Furthermore, in the low data regime, we observed that our method outperforms state-of-the-art Bayesian techniques in terms of accuracy.
A multi-layer deep Gaussian process (DGP) model is a hierarchical composition of GP models with a greater expressive power. Exact DGP inference is intractable, which has motivated the recent development of deterministic and stochastic approximation methods. Unfortunately, the deterministic approximation methods yield a biased posterior belief while the stochastic one is computationally costly. This paper presents an implicit posterior variational inference (IPVI) framework for DGPs that can ideally recover an unbiased posterior belief and still preserve time efficiency. Inspired by generative adversarial networks, our IPVI framework achieves this by casting the DGP inference problem as a two-player game in which a Nash equilibrium, interestingly, coincides with an unbiased posterior belief. This consequently inspires us to devise a best-response dynamics algorithm to search for a Nash equilibrium (i.e., an unbiased posterior belief). Empirical evaluation shows that IPVI outperforms the state-of-the-art approximation methods for DGPs.
This paper tests the hypothesis that modeling a scene in terms of entities and their local interactions, as opposed to modeling the scene globally, provides a significant benefit in generalizing to physical tasks in a combinatorial space the learner has not encountered before. We present object-centric perception, prediction, and planning (OP3), which to the best of our knowledge is the first fully probabilistic entity-centric dynamic latent variable framework for model-based reinforcement learning that acquires entity representations from raw visual observations without supervision and uses them to predict and plan. OP3 enforces entity-abstraction -- symmetric processing of each entity representation with the same locally-scoped function -- which enables it to scale to model different numbers and configurations of objects from those in training. Our approach to solving the key technical challenge of grounding these entity representations to actual objects in the environment is to frame this variable binding problem as an inference problem, and we develop an interactive inference algorithm that uses temporal continuity and interactive feedback to bind information about object properties to the entity variables. On block-stacking tasks, OP3 generalizes to novel block configurations and more objects than observed during training, outperforming an oracle model that assumes access to object supervision and achieving two to three times better accuracy than a state-of-the-art video prediction model that does not exhibit entity abstraction.
Stochastic recurrent neural networks with latent random variables of complex dependency structures have shown to be more successful in modeling sequential data than deterministic deep models. However, the majority of existing methods have limited expressive power due to the Gaussian assumption of latent variables. In this paper, we advocate learning implicit latent representations using semi-implicit variational inference to further increase model flexibility. Semi-implicit stochastic recurrent neural network(SIS-RNN) is developed to enrich inferred model posteriors that may have no analytic density functions, as long as independent random samples can be generated via reparameterization. Extensive experiments in different tasks on real-world datasets show that SIS-RNN outperforms the existing methods.
Neural Network based controllers hold enormous potential to learn complex, high-dimensional functions. However, they are prone to overfitting and unwarranted extrapolations. PAC Bayes is a generalized framework which is more resistant to overfitting and that yields performance bounds that hold with arbitrarily high probability even on the unjustified extrapolations. However, optimizing to learn such a function and a bound is intractable for complex tasks. In this work, we propose a method to simultaneously learn such a function and estimate performance bounds that scale organically to high-dimensions, non-linear environments without making any explicit assumptions about the environment. We build our approach on a parallel that we draw between the formulations called ELBO and PAC Bayes when the risk metric is negative log likelihood. Through our experiments on multiple high dimensional MuJoCo locomotion tasks, we validate the correctness of our theory, show its ability to generalize better, and investigate the factors that are important for its learning. The code for all the experiments is available at https://bit.ly/2qv0JjA.
We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of two independent processes: one spanned by a finite basis of inducing points and the other capturing the remaining variation. We show that this formulation recovers existing approximations and at the same time allows to obtain tighter lower bounds on the marginal likelihood and new stochastic variational inference algorithms. We demonstrate the efficiency of these algorithms in several Gaussian process models ranging from standard regression to multi-class classification using (deep) convolutional Gaussian processes and report state-of-the-art results on CIFAR-10 among purely GP-based models.
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have developed into useful tools for probabilistic modelling due to recent advances in variational inference enabling large scale BNNs. However, BNNs remain brittle and hard to train, especially: (1) when using deep architectures consisting of many hidden layers and (2) in situations with large weight variances. We use signal propagation theory to quantify these challenges and propose self-stabilising priors. This is achieved by a reformulation of the ELBO to allow the prior to influence network signal propagation. Then, we develop a stabilising prior, where the distributional parameters of the prior are adjusted before each forward pass to ensure stability of the propagating signal. This stabilised signal propagation leads to improved convergence and robustness making it possible to train deeper networks and in more noisy settings.
We propose an efficient inference method for switching nonlinear dynamical systems. The key idea is to learn an inference network which can be used as a proposal distribution for the continuous latent variables, while performing exact marginalization of the discrete latent variables. This allows us to use the reparameterization trick, and apply end-to-end training with stochastic gradient descent. We show that the proposed method can successfully segment time series data, including videos and 3D human pose, into meaningful ``regimes'' by using the piece-wise nonlinear dynamics.
Transfer and adaptation to new unknown environmental dynamics is a key challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). An even greater challenge is performing near-optimally in a single attempt at test time, possibly without access to dense rewards, which is not addressed by current methods that require multiple experience rollouts for adaptation. To achieve single episode transfer in a family of environments with related dynamics, we propose a general algorithm that optimizes a probe and an inference model to rapidly estimate underlying latent variables of test dynamics, which are then immediately used as input to a universal control policy. This modular approach enables integration of state-of-the-art algorithms for variational inference or RL. Moreover, our approach does not require access to rewards at test time, allowing it to perform in settings where existing adaptive approaches cannot. In diverse experimental domains with a single episode test constraint, our method significantly outperforms existing adaptive approaches and shows favorable performance against baselines for robust transfer.
The combination of inducing point methods with stochastic variational inference has enabled approximate Gaussian Process (GP) inference on large datasets. Unfortunately, the resulting predictive distributions often exhibit substantially underestimated uncertainties. Notably, in the regression case the predictive variance is typically dominated by observation noise, yielding uncertainty estimates that make little use of the input-dependent function uncertainty that makes GP priors attractive. In this work we propose two simple methods for scalable GP regression that address this issue and thus yield substantially improved predictive uncertainties. The first applies variational inference to FITC (Fully Independent Training Conditional; Snelson et.~al.~2006). The second bypasses posterior approximations and instead directly targets the posterior predictive distribution. In an extensive empirical comparison with a number of alternative methods for scalable GP regression, we find that the resulting predictive distributions exhibit significantly better calibrated uncertainties and higher log likelihoods--often by as much as half a nat per datapoint.
Gaussian processes are a flexible Bayesian nonparametric modelling approach that has been widely applied but poses computational challenges. To address the poor scaling of exact inference methods, approximation methods based on sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) are attractive. An issue faced by SGP, especially in latent variable models, is the inefficient learning of the inducing inputs, which leads to poor model prediction. We propose a regularization approach by balancing the reconstruction performance of data and the approximation performance of the model itself. This regularization improves both inference and prediction performance. We extend this regularization approach into latent variable models with SGPs and show that performing variational inference (VI) on those models is equivalent to performing VI on a related empirical Bayes model.
We introduce the Mutual Information Machine (MIM), a novel formulation of representation learning, using a joint distribution over the observations and latent state in an encoder/decoder framework. Our key principles are symmetry and mutual information, where symmetry encourages the encoder and decoder to learn different factorizations of the same underlying distribution, and mutual information, to encourage the learning of useful representations for downstream tasks. Our starting point is the symmetric Jensen-Shannon divergence between the encoding and decoding joint distributions, plus a mutual information encouraging regularizer. We show that this can be bounded by a tractable cross entropy loss function between the true model and a parameterized approximation, and relate this to the maximum likelihood framework. We also relate MIM to variational autoencoders (VAEs) and demonstrate that MIM is capable of learning symmetric factorizations, with high mutual information that avoids posterior collapse.
Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of post-hoc accuracy measures that are both theoretically justified and computationally efficient. In this paper, we provide rigorous bounds on the error of posterior mean and uncertainty estimates that arise from full-distribution approximations, as in variational inference. Our bounds are widely applicable, as they require only that the approximating and exact posteriors have polynomial moments. Our bounds are also computationally efficient for variational inference because they require only standard values from variational objectives, straightforward analytic calculations, and simple Monte Carlo estimates. We show that our analysis naturally leads to a new and improved workflow for validated variational inference. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our proposed workflow and error bounds on a robust regression problem and on a real-data example with a widely used multilevel hierarchical model.
In this paper, we are concerned with a non-asymptotic analysis of sampling algorithms used in nonconvex optimization. In particular, we obtain non-asymptotic estimates in Wasserstein-1 and Wasserstein-2 distances for a popular class of algorithms called Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD). In addition, the aforementioned Wasserstein-2 convergence result can be applied to establish a non-asymptotic error bound for the expected excess risk. Crucially, these results are obtained under a local Lipschitz condition and a local dissipativity condition where we remove the uniform dependence in the data stream. We illustrate the importance of this relaxation by presenting examples from variational inference and from index tracking optimization.