Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN) are powerful Bayesian models for multi-output regression, but their inference is intractable. To address this issue, existing methods use a fully factorized structure (or a mixture of such structures) over all the outputs and latent functions for posterior approximation, which, however, can miss the strong posterior dependencies among the latent variables and hurt the inference quality. In addition, the updates of the variational parameters are inefficient and can be prohibitively expensive for a large number of outputs. To overcome these limitations, we propose a scalable variational inference algorithm for GPRN, which not only captures the abundant posterior dependencies but also is much more efficient for massive outputs. We tensorize the output space and introduce tensor/matrix-normal variational posteriors to capture the posterior correlations and to reduce the parameters. We jointly optimize all the parameters and exploit the inherent Kronecker product structure in the variational model evidence lower bound to accelerate the computation. We demonstrate the advantages of our method in several real-world applications.
We introduce deep Markov spatio-temporal factorization (DMSTF), a generative model for dynamical analysis of spatio-temporal data. Like other factor analysis methods, DMSTF approximates high dimensional data by a product between time dependent weights and spatially dependent factors. These weights and factors are in turn represented in terms of lower dimensional latents inferred using stochastic variational inference. The innovation in DMSTF is that we parameterize weights in terms of a deep Markovian prior extendable with a discrete latent, which is able to characterize nonlinear multimodal temporal dynamics, and perform multidimensional time series forecasting. DMSTF learns a low dimensional spatial latent to generatively parameterize spatial factors or their functional forms in order to accommodate high spatial dimensionality. We parameterize the corresponding variational distribution using a bidirectional recurrent network in the low-level latent representations. This results in a flexible family of hierarchical deep generative factor analysis models that can be extended to perform time series clustering or perform factor analysis in the presence of a control signal. Our experiments, which include simulated and real-world data, demonstrate that DMSTF outperforms related methodologies in terms of predictive performance for unseen data, reveals meaningful clusters in the data, and performs forecasting in a variety of domains with potentially nonlinear temporal transitions.
We present parameter learning in a Gaussian variational inference setting using only noisy measurements (i.e., no groundtruth). This is demonstrated in the context of vehicle trajectory estimation, although the method we propose is general. The paper extends the Exactly Sparse Gaussian Variational Inference (ESGVI) framework, which has previously been used for large-scale nonlinear batch state estimation. Our contribution is to additionally learn parameters of our system models (which may be difficult to choose in practice) within the ESGVI framework. In this paper, we learn the covariances for the motion and sensor models used within vehicle trajectory estimation. Specifically, we learn the parameters of a white-noise-on-acceleration motion model and the parameters of an Inverse-Wishart prior over measurement covariances for our sensor model. We demonstrate our technique using a 36~km dataset consisting of a car using lidar to localize against a high-definition map; we learn the parameters on a training section of the data and then show that we achieve high-quality state estimates on a test section, even in the presence of outliers. Lastly, we show that our framework can be used to solve pose graph optimization even with many false loop closures.
Modern variational inference (VI) uses stochastic gradients to avoid intractable expectations, enabling large-scale probabilistic inference in complex models. VI posits a family of approximating distributions q and then finds the member of that family that is closest to the exact posterior p. Traditionally, VI algorithms minimize the "exclusive Kullback-Leibler (KL)" KL(q || p), often for computational convenience. Recent research, however, has also focused on the "inclusive KL" KL(p || q), which has good statistical properties that makes it more appropriate for certain inference problems. This paper develops a simple algorithm for reliably minimizing the inclusive KL using stochastic gradients with vanishing bias. This method, which we call Markovian score climbing (MSC), converges to a local optimum of the inclusive KL. It does not suffer from the systematic errors inherent in existing methods, such as Reweighted Wake-Sleep and Neural Adaptive Sequential Monte Carlo, which lead to bias in their final estimates. We illustrate convergence on a toy model and demonstrate the utility of MSC on Bayesian probit regression for classification as well as a stochastic volatility model for financial data.
Reinforcement learning algorithms based on Q-learning are driving Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) research towards solving complex problems and achieving super-human performance on many of them. Nevertheless, Q-Learning is known to be positively biased since it learns by using the maximum over noisy estimates of expected values. Systematic overestimation of the action values coupled with the inherently high variance of DRL methods can lead to incrementally accumulate errors, causing learning algorithms to diverge. Ideally, we would like DRL agents to take into account their own uncertainty about the optimality of each action, and be able to exploit it to make more informed estimations of the expected return. In this regard, Weighted Q-Learning (WQL) effectively reduces bias and shows remarkable results in stochastic environments. WQL uses a weighted sum of the estimated action values, where the weights correspond to the probability of each action value being the maximum; however, the computation of these probabilities is only practical in the tabular setting. In this work, we provide methodological advances to benefit from the WQL properties in DRL, by using neural networks trained with Dropout as an effective approximation of deep Gaussian processes. In particular, we adopt the Concrete Dropout variant to obtain calibrated estimates of epistemic uncertainty in DRL. The estimator, then, is obtained by taking several stochastic forward passes through the action-value network and computing the weights in a Monte Carlo fashion. Such weights are Bayesian estimates of the probability of each action value corresponding to the maximum w.r.t. a posterior probability distribution estimated by Dropout. We show how our novel Deep Weighted Q-Learning algorithm reduces the bias w.r.t. relevant baselines and provides empirical evidence of its advantages on representative benchmarks.
Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been paid to obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates associated with each prediction. The currently popular models are opaque and untrustworthy in that they often express high confidence even on those test cases that are not similar to the training samples, and even when their predictions are wrong. We propose a Bayesian framework for survival models that not only gives more accurate survival predictions but also quantifies the survival uncertainty better. Our approach is a novel combination of variational inference for uncertainty estimation, neural multi-task logistic regression for estimating nonlinear and time-varying risk models, and an additional sparsity-inducing prior to work with high dimensional data.
We describe nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs), a family of Bayesian nonparametric models for collections of data in which each observation is the average over the features from heterogeneous particles. For example, these types of data are found in elections, where we observe precinct-level vote tallies (observations) of individual citizens' votes (particles) across each of the candidates or ballot measures (features), where each voter is part of a specific voter cohort or demographic (factor). Like the hierarchical Dirichlet process, NDMs rely on two tiers of Dirichlet processes to explain the data with an unknown number of latent factors; each observation is modeled as a weighted average of these latent factors. Unlike existing models, NDMs recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation. This uniquely allows NDMs both to deconvolve each observation into its constituent factors, and also to describe how the factor distributions specific to each observation vary across observations and deviate from the corresponding global factors. We present variational inference techniques for this family of models and study its performance on simulated data and voting data from California. We show that including local factors improves estimates of global factors and provides a novel scaffold for exploring data.
We propose a Bayesian physics-informed neural network (B-PINN) to solve both forward and inverse nonlinear problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) and noisy data. In this Bayesian framework, the Bayesian neural network (BNN) combined with a PINN for PDEs serves as the prior while the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) or the variational inference (VI) could serve as an estimator of the posterior. B-PINNs make use of both physical laws and scattered noisy measurements to provide predictions and quantify the aleatoric uncertainty arising from the noisy data in the Bayesian framework. Compared with PINNs, in addition to uncertainty quantification, B-PINNs obtain more accurate predictions in scenarios with large noise due to their capability of avoiding overfitting. We conduct a systematic comparison between the two different approaches for the B-PINN posterior estimation (i.e., HMC or VI), along with dropout used for quantifying uncertainty in deep neural networks. Our experiments show that HMC is more suitable than VI for the B-PINNs posterior estimation, while dropout employed in PINNs can hardly provide accurate predictions with reasonable uncertainty. Finally, we replace the BNN in the prior with a truncated Karhunen-Lo\`eve (KL) expansion combined with HMC or a deep normalizing flow (DNF) model as posterior estimators. The KL is as accurate as BNN and much faster but this framework cannot be easily extended to high-dimensional problems unlike the BNN based framework.
Abstraction is crucial for effective sequential decision making in domains with large state spaces. In this work, we propose an information bottleneck method for learning approximate bisimulations, a type of state abstraction. We use a deep neural encoder to map states onto continuous embeddings. We map these embeddings onto a discrete representation using an action-conditioned hidden Markov model, which is trained end-to-end with the neural network. Our method is suited for environments with high-dimensional states and learns from a stream of experience collected by an agent acting in a Markov decision process. Through this learned discrete abstract model, we can efficiently plan for unseen goals in a multi-goal Reinforcement Learning setting. We test our method in simplified robotic manipulation domains with image states. We also compare it against previous model-based approaches to finding bisimulations in discrete grid-world-like environments. Source code is available at https://github.com/ondrejba/discrete_abstractions.
In this paper, we propose a deep probabilistic multi-view model that is composed of a linear multi-view layer based on probabilistic canonical correlation analysis (CCA) description in the latent space together with deep generative networks as observation models. The network is designed to decompose the variations of all views into a shared latent representation and a set of view-specific components where the shared latent representation is intended to describe the common underlying sources of variation among the views. An efficient variational inference procedure is developed that approximates the posterior distributions of the latent probabilistic multi-view layer while taking into account the solution of probabilistic CCA. A generalization to models with arbitrary number of views is also proposed. The empirical studies confirm that the proposed deep generative multi-view model can successfully extend deep variational inference to multi-view learning while it efficiently integrates the relationship between multiple views to alleviate the difficulty of learning.
Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) provide a flexible and scalable framework for non-linear dimensionality reduction. However, in application domains such as genomics where data sets are typically tabular and high-dimensional, a black-box approach to dimensionality reduction does not provide sufficient insights. Common data analysis workflows additionally use clustering techniques to identify groups of similar features. This usually leads to a two-stage process, however, it would be desirable to construct a joint modelling framework for simultaneous dimensionality reduction and clustering of features. In this paper, we propose to achieve this through the BasisVAE: a combination of the VAE and a probabilistic clustering prior, which lets us learn a one-hot basis function representation as part of the decoder network. Furthermore, for scenarios where not all features are aligned, we develop an extension to handle translation-invariant basis functions. We show how a collapsed variational inference scheme leads to scalable and efficient inference for BasisVAE, demonstrated on various toy examples as well as on single-cell gene expression data.
As Deep Learning continues to yield successful applications in Computer Vision, the ability to quantify all forms of uncertainty is a paramount requirement for its safe and reliable deployment in the real-world. In this work, we leverage the formulation of variational inference in function space, where we associate Gaussian Processes (GPs) to both Bayesian CNN priors and variational family. Since GPs are fully determined by their mean and covariance functions, we are able to obtain predictive uncertainty estimates at the cost of a single forward pass through any chosen CNN architecture and for any supervised learning task. By leveraging the structure of the induced covariance matrices, we propose numerically efficient algorithms which enable fast training in the context of high-dimensional tasks such as depth estimation and semantic segmentation. Additionally, we provide sufficient conditions for constructing regression loss functions whose probabilistic counterparts are compatible with aleatoric uncertainty quantification.
Variational inference techniques based on inducing variables provide an elegant framework for scalable posterior estimation in Gaussian process (GP) models. Besides enabling scalability, one of their main advantages over sparse approximations using direct marginal likelihood maximization is that they provide a robust alternative for point estimation of the inducing inputs, i.e. the location of the inducing variables. In this work we challenge the common wisdom that optimizing the inducing inputs in the variational framework yields optimal performance. We show that, by revisiting old model approximations such as the fully-independent training conditionals endowed with powerful sampling-based inference methods, treating both inducing locations and GP hyper-parameters in a Bayesian way can improve performance significantly. Based on stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we develop a fully Bayesian approach to scalable GP and deep GP models, and demonstrate its state-of-the-art performance through an extensive experimental campaign across several regression and classification problems.
In this paper we propose mmFall - a novel fall detection system, which comprises of (i) the emerging millimeter-wave (mmWave) radar sensor to collect the human body's point cloud along with the body centroid, and (ii) a variational recurrent autoencoder (VRAE) to compute the anomaly level of the body motion based on the acquired point cloud. A fall is claimed to have occurred when the spike in anomaly level and the drop in centroid height occur simultaneously. The mmWave radar sensor provides several advantages, such as privacycompliance and high-sensitivity to motion, over the traditional sensing modalities. However, (i) randomness in radar point cloud data and (ii) difficulties in fall collection/labeling in the traditional supervised fall detection approaches are the two main challenges. To overcome the randomness in radar data, the proposed VRAE uses variational inference, a probabilistic approach rather than the traditional deterministic approach, to infer the posterior probability of the body's latent motion state at each frame, followed by a recurrent neural network (RNN) to learn the temporal features of the motion over multiple frames. Moreover, to circumvent the difficulties in fall data collection/labeling, the VRAE is built upon an autoencoder architecture in a semi-supervised approach, and trained on only normal activities of daily living (ADL) such that in the inference stage the VRAE will generate a spike in the anomaly level once an abnormal motion, such as fall, occurs. During the experiment, we implemented the VRAE along with two other baselines, and tested on the dataset collected in an apartment. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve indicates that our proposed model outperforms the other two baselines, and achieves 98% detection out of 50 falls at the expense of just 2 false alarms.
We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of the unknown parameters from a time series dataset. We assume that the time series data set consists of an ensemble of trajectories for a range of the parameters. The learning task is formulated as a statistical inference problem by considering the unknown parameters as random variables. A latent variable is introduced to model the effects of the unknown parameters, and a variational inference method is employed to simultaneously train probabilistic models for the time marching operator and an approximate posterior distribution for the latent variable. Unlike the classical variational inference, where a factorized distribution is used to approximate the posterior, we employ a feedforward neural network supplemented by an encoder recurrent neural network to develop a more flexible probabilistic model. The approximate posterior distribution makes an inference on a trajectory to identify the effects of the unknown parameters. The time marching operator is approximated by a recurrent neural network, which takes a latent state sampled from the approximate posterior distribution as one of the input variables, to compute the time evolution of the probability distribution conditioned on the latent variable. In the numerical experiments, it is shown that the proposed variational inference model makes a more accurate simulation compared to the standard recurrent neural networks. It is found that the proposed deep learning model is capable of correctly identifying the dimensions of the random parameters and learning a representation of complex time series data.
Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) is a useful tool for efficiently learning probabilistic models in machine learning. Generally approximate posteriors learned by ADVI are forced to be unimodal in order to facilitate use of the reparameterization trick. In this paper, we show how stratified sampling may be used to enable mixture distributions as the approximate posterior, and derive a new lower bound on the evidence analogous to the importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE). We show that this "SIWAE" is a tighter bound than both IWAE and the traditional ELBO, both of which are special instances of this bound. We verify empirically that the traditional ELBO objective disfavors the presence of multimodal posterior distributions and may therefore not be able to fully capture structure in the latent space. Our experiments show that using the SIWAE objective allows the encoder to learn more complex distributions which regularly contain multimodality, resulting in higher accuracy and better calibration in the presence of incomplete, limited, or corrupted data.
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) are trained to optimize an entire distribution over their weights instead of a single set, having significant advantages in terms of, e.g., interpretability, multi-task learning, and calibration. Because of the intractability of the resulting optimization problem, most BNNs are either sampled through Monte Carlo methods, or trained by minimizing a suitable Evidence Lower BOund (ELBO) on a variational approximation. In this paper, we propose a variant of the latter, wherein we replace the Kullback-Leibler divergence in the ELBO term with a Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) estimator, inspired by recent work in variational inference. After motivating our proposal based on the properties of the MMD term, we proceed to show a number of empirical advantages of the proposed formulation over the state-of-the-art. In particular, our BNNs achieve higher accuracy on multiple benchmarks, including several image classification tasks. In addition, they are more robust to the selection of a prior over the weights, and they are better calibrated. As a second contribution, we provide a new formulation for estimating the uncertainty on a given prediction, showing it performs in a more robust fashion against adversarial attacks and the injection of noise over their inputs, compared to more classical criteria such as the differential entropy.
Gradient-based approximate inference methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), provide simple and general-purpose inference engines for differentiable continuous distributions. However, existing forms of SVGD cannot be directly applied to discrete distributions. In this work, we fill this gap by proposing a simple yet general framework that transforms discrete distributions to equivalent piecewise continuous distributions, on which the gradient-free SVGD is applied to perform efficient approximate inference. The empirical results show that our method outperforms traditional algorithms such as Gibbs sampling and discontinuous Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on various challenging benchmarks of discrete graphical models. We demonstrate that our method provides a promising tool for learning ensembles of binarized neural network (BNN), outperforming other widely used ensemble methods on learning binarized AlexNet on CIFAR-10 dataset. In addition, such transform can be straightforwardly employed in gradient-free kernelized Stein discrepancy to perform goodness-of-fit (GOF) test on discrete distributions. Our proposed method outperforms existing GOF test methods for intractable discrete distributions.
In the present paper, we propose an extension of the Deep Planning Network (PlaNet), also referred to as PlaNet of the Bayesians (PlaNet-Bayes). There has been a growing demand in model predictive control (MPC) in partially observable environments in which complete information is unavailable because of, for example, lack of expensive sensors. PlaNet is a promising solution to realize such latent MPC, as it is used to train state-space models via model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) and to conduct planning in the latent space. However, recent state-of-the-art strategies mentioned in MBRR literature, such as involving uncertainty into training and planning, have not been considered, significantly suppressing the training performance. The proposed extension is to make PlaNet uncertainty-aware on the basis of Bayesian inference, in which both model and action uncertainty are incorporated. Uncertainty in latent models is represented using a neural network ensemble to approximately infer model posteriors. The ensemble of optimal action candidates is also employed to capture multimodal uncertainty in the optimality. The concept of the action ensemble relies on a general variational inference MPC (VI-MPC) framework and its instance, probabilistic action ensemble with trajectory sampling (PaETS). In this paper, we extend VI-MPC and PaETS, which have been originally introduced in previous literature, to address partially observable cases. We experimentally compare the performances on continuous control tasks, and conclude that our method can consistently improve the asymptotic performance compared with PlaNet.
Given an inverse problem with a normalizing flow prior, we wish to estimate the distribution of the underlying signal conditioned on the observations. We approach this problem as a task of conditional inference on the pre-trained unconditional flow model. We first establish that this is computationally hard for a large class of flow models. Motivated by this, we propose a framework for approximate inference that estimates the target conditional as a composition of two flow models. This formulation leads to a stable variational inference training procedure that avoids adversarial training. Our method is evaluated on a variety of inverse problems and is shown to produce high-quality samples with uncertainty quantification. We further demonstrate that our approach can be amortized for zero-shot inference.