The dissemination of fake news intended to deceive people, influence public opinion and manipulate social outcomes, has become a pressing problem on social media. Moreover, information sharing on social media facilitates diffusion of viral information cascades. In this work, we focus on understanding and leveraging diffusion dynamics of false and legitimate contents in order to facilitate network interventions for fake news mitigation. We analyze real-world Twitter datasets comprising fake and true news cascades, to understand differences in diffusion dynamics and user behaviours with regards to fake and true contents. Based on the analysis, we model the diffusion as a mixture of Independent Cascade models (MIC) with parameters $\theta_T, \theta_F$ over the social network graph; and derive unsupervised inference techniques for parameter estimation of the diffusion mixture model from observed, unlabeled cascades. Users influential in the propagation of true and fake contents are identified using the inferred diffusion dynamics. Characteristics of the identified influential users reveal positive correlation between influential users identified for fake news and their relative appearance in fake news cascades. Identified influential users tend to be related to topics of more viral information cascades than less viral ones; and identified fake news influential users have relatively fewer counts of direct followers, compared to the true news influential users. Intervention analysis on nodes and edges demonstrates capacity of the inferred diffusion dynamics in supporting network interventions for mitigation.
Magnetic resonance fingerprinting (MRF) enables fast and multiparametric MR imaging. Despite fast acquisition, the state-of-the-art reconstruction of MRF based on dictionary matching is slow and lacks scalability. To overcome these limitations, neural network (NN) approaches estimating MR parameters from fingerprints have been proposed recently. Here, we revisit NN-based MRF reconstruction to jointly learn the forward process from MR parameters to fingerprints and the backward process from fingerprints to MR parameters by leveraging invertible neural networks (INNs). As a proof-of-concept, we perform various experiments showing the benefit of learning the forward process, i.e., the Bloch simulations, for improved MR parameter estimation. The benefit especially accentuates when MR parameter estimation is difficult due to MR physical restrictions. Therefore, INNs might be a feasible alternative to the current solely backward-based NNs for MRF reconstruction.
We propose a novel stochastic network model, called Fractal Gaussian Network (FGN), that embodies well-defined and analytically tractable fractal structures. Such fractal structures have been empirically observed in diverse applications. FGNs interpolate continuously between the popular purely random geometric graphs (a.k.a. the Poisson Boolean network), and random graphs with increasingly fractal behavior. In fact, they form a parametric family of sparse random geometric graphs that are parametrized by a fractality parameter which governs the strength of the fractal structure. FGNs are driven by the latent spatial geometry of Gaussian Multiplicative Chaos (GMC), a canonical model of fractality in its own right. We asymptotically characterize the expected number of edges, triangles, cliques and hub-and-spoke motifs in FGNs, unveiling a distinct pattern in their scaling with the size parameter of the network. We then examine the natural question of detecting the presence of fractality and the problem of parameter estimation based on observed network data, in addition to fundamental properties of the FGN as a random graph model. We also explore fractality in community structures by unveiling a natural stochastic block model in the setting of FGNs. Finally, we substantiate our results with phenomenological analysis of the FGN in the context of available scientific literature for fractality in networks, including applications to real-world massive network data.
In this paper, we propose the Adaptive Physics-Informed Neural Networks (APINNs) for accurate and efficient simulation-free Bayesian parameter estimation via Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We specifically focus on a class of parameter estimation problems for which computing the likelihood function requires solving a PDE. The proposed method consists of: (1) constructing an offline PINN-UQ model as an approximation to the forward model; and (2) refining this approximate model on the fly using samples generated from the MCMC sampler. The proposed APINN method constantly refines this approximate model on the fly and guarantees that the approximation error is always less than a user-defined residual error threshold. We numerically demonstrate the performance of the proposed APINN method in solving a parameter estimation problem for a system governed by the Poisson equation.
Bayesian networks are powerful statistical models to study the probabilistic relationships among set random variables with major applications in disease modeling and prediction. Here, we propose a continuous time Bayesian network with conditional dependencies, represented as Poisson regression, to model the impact of exogenous variables on the conditional dependencies of the network. We also propose an adaptive regularization method with an intuitive early stopping feature based on density based clustering for efficient learning of the structure and parameters of the proposed network. Using a dataset of patients with multiple chronic conditions extracted from electronic health records of the Department of Veterans Affairs we compare the performance of the proposed approach with some of the existing methods in the literature for both short-term (one-year ahead) and long-term (multi-year ahead) predictions. The proposed approach provides a sparse intuitive representation of the complex functional relationships between multiple chronic conditions. It also provides the capability of analyzing multiple disease trajectories over time given any combination of prior conditions.
We propose a robust parameter estimation method for dynamical systems based on Statistical Learning techniques which aims to estimate a set of parameters that well fit the dynamics in order to obtain robust evidences about the qualitative behaviour of its trajectory. The method is quite general and flexible, since it does not rely on any specific property of the dynamical system, and represents a reinterpretation of Approximate Bayesian Computation methods through the lens of Statistical Learning. The method is specially useful for estimating parameters in epidemiological compartmental models in order to obtain qualitative properties of a disease evolution. We apply it to simulated and real data about COVID-19 spread in the US in order to evaluate qualitatively its evolution over time, showing how one may assess the effectiveness of measures implemented to slow the spread and some qualitative features of the disease current and future evolution.
We introduce an automatic, end-to-end method for recovering the 3D pose and shape of dogs from monocular internet images. The large variation in shape between dog breeds, significant occlusion and low quality of internet images makes this a challenging problem. We learn a richer prior over shapes than previous work, which helps regularize parameter estimation. We demonstrate results on the Stanford Dog dataset, an 'in the wild' dataset of 20,580 dog images for which we have collected 2D joint and silhouette annotations to split for training and evaluation. In order to capture the large shape variety of dogs, we show that the natural variation in the 2D dataset is enough to learn a detailed 3D prior through expectation maximization (EM). As a by-product of training, we generate a new parameterized model (including limb scaling) SMBLD which we release alongside our new annotation dataset StanfordExtra to the research community.
Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function. We propose a new parameter fitting method, Minimum Probability Flow (MPF), which is applicable to any parametric model. We demonstrate parameter estimation using MPF in two cases: a continuous state space model, and an Ising spin glass. In the latter case it outperforms current techniques by at least an order of magnitude in convergence time with lower error in the recovered coupling parameters.
Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function and its derivatives. Here we propose a new parameter estimation technique that does not require computing an intractable normalization factor or sampling from the equilibrium distribution of the model. This is achieved by establishing dynamics that would transform the observed data distribution into the model distribution, and then setting as the objective the minimization of the KL divergence between the data distribution and the distribution produced by running the dynamics for an infinitesimal time. Score matching, minimum velocity learning, and certain forms of contrastive divergence are shown to be special cases of this learning technique. We demonstrate parameter estimation in Ising models, deep belief networks and an independent component analysis model of natural scenes. In the Ising model case, current state of the art techniques are outperformed by at least an order of magnitude in learning time, with lower error in recovered coupling parameters.
Characterising intractable high-dimensional random variables is one of the fundamental challenges in stochastic computation. The recent surge of transport maps offers a mathematical foundation and new insights for tackling this challenge by coupling intractable random variables with tractable reference random variables. This paper generalises the functional tensor-train approximation of the inverse Rosenblatt transport recently developed by Dolgov et al. (Stat Comput 30:603--625, 2020) to a wide class of high-dimensional non-negative functions, such as unnormalised probability density functions. First, we extend the inverse Rosenblatt transform to enable the transport to general reference measures other than the uniform measure. We develop an efficient procedure to compute this transport from a squared tensor-train decomposition which preserves the monotonicity. More crucially, we integrate the proposed order-preserving functional tensor-train transport into a nested variable transformation framework inspired by the layered structure of deep neural networks. The resulting deep inverse Rosenblatt transport significantly expands the capability of tensor approximations and transport maps to random variables with complicated nonlinear interactions and concentrated density functions. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach on a range of applications in statistical learning and uncertainty quantification, including parameter estimation for dynamical systems and inverse problems constrained by partial differential equations.
In this work, we consider the problem of robust parameter estimation from observational data in the context of linear structural equation models (LSEMs). LSEMs are a popular and well-studied class of models for inferring causality in the natural and social sciences. One of the main problems related to LSEMs is to recover the model parameters from the observational data. Under various conditions on LSEMs and the model parameters the prior work provides efficient algorithms to recover the parameters. However, these results are often about generic identifiability. In practice, generic identifiability is not sufficient and we need robust identifiability: small changes in the observational data should not affect the parameters by a huge amount. Robust identifiability has received far less attention and remains poorly understood. Sankararaman et al. (2019) recently provided a set of sufficient conditions on parameters under which robust identifiability is feasible. However, a limitation of their work is that their results only apply to a small sub-class of LSEMs, called ``bow-free paths.'' In this work, we significantly extend their work along multiple dimensions. First, for a large and well-studied class of LSEMs, namely ``bow free'' models, we provide a sufficient condition on model parameters under which robust identifiability holds, thereby removing the restriction of paths required by prior work. We then show that this sufficient condition holds with high probability which implies that for a large set of parameters robust identifiability holds and that for such parameters, existing algorithms already achieve robust identifiability. Finally, we validate our results on both simulated and real-world datasets.
We study the problem of estimating the parameters of a Boolean product distribution in $d$ dimensions, when the samples are truncated by a set $S \subset \{0, 1\}^d$ accessible through a membership oracle. This is the first time that the computational and statistical complexity of learning from truncated samples is considered in a discrete setting. We introduce a natural notion of fatness of the truncation set $S$, under which truncated samples reveal enough information about the true distribution. We show that if the truncation set is sufficiently fat, samples from the true distribution can be generated from truncated samples. A stunning consequence is that virtually any statistical task (e.g., learning in total variation distance, parameter estimation, uniformity or identity testing) that can be performed efficiently for Boolean product distributions, can also be performed from truncated samples, with a small increase in sample complexity. We generalize our approach to ranking distributions over $d$ alternatives, where we show how fatness implies efficient parameter estimation of Mallows models from truncated samples. Exploring the limits of learning discrete models from truncated samples, we identify three natural conditions that are necessary for efficient identifiability: (i) the truncation set $S$ should be rich enough; (ii) $S$ should be accessible through membership queries; and (iii) the truncation by $S$ should leave enough randomness in all directions. By carefully adapting the Stochastic Gradient Descent approach of (Daskalakis et al., FOCS 2018), we show that these conditions are also sufficient for efficient learning of truncated Boolean product distributions.
An end-to-end image analysis pipeline is presented for the abdominal MRI protocol used in the UK Biobank on the first 38,971 participants. Emphasis is on the processing steps necessary to ensure a high-level of data quality and consistency is produced in order to prepare the datasets for downstream quantitative analysis, such as segmentation and parameter estimation. Quality control procedures have been incorporated to detect and, where possible, correct issues in the raw data. Detection of fat-water swaps in the Dixon series is performed by a deep learning model and corrected automatically. Bone joints are predicted using a hybrid atlas-based registration and deep learning model for the shoulders, hips and knees. Simultaneous estimation of proton density fat fraction and transverse relaxivity (R2*) is performed using both the magnitude and phase information for the single-slice multiecho series. Approximately 98.1% of the two-point Dixon acquisitions were successfully processed and passed quality control, with 99.98% of the high-resolution T1-weighted 3D volumes succeeding. Approximately 99.98% of the single-slice multiecho acquisitions covering the liver were successfully processed and passed quality control, with 97.6% of the single-slice multiecho acquisitions covering the pancreas succeeding. At least one fat-water swap was detected in 1.8% of participants. With respect to the bone joints, approximately 3.3% of participants were missing at least one knee joint and 0.8% were missing at least one shoulder joint. For the participants who received both single-slice multiecho acquisition protocols for the liver a systematic difference between the two protocols was identified and modeled using multiple linear regression. The findings presented here will be invaluable for scientists who seek to use image-derived phenotypes from the abdominal MRI protocol.
We present a differentiable dynamics solver that is able to handle frictional contact for rigid and deformable objects within a unified framework. Through a principled mollification of normal and tangential contact forces, our method circumvents the main difficulties inherent to the non-smooth nature of frictional contact. We combine this new contact model with fully-implicit time integration to obtain a robust and efficient dynamics solver that is analytically differentiable. In conjunction with adjoint sensitivity analysis, our formulation enables gradient-based optimization with adaptive trade-offs between simulation accuracy and smoothness of objective function landscapes. We thoroughly analyse our approach on a set of simulation examples involving rigid bodies, visco-elastic materials, and coupled multi-body systems. We furthermore showcase applications of our differentiable simulator to parameter estimation for deformable objects, motion planning for robotic manipulation, trajectory optimization for compliant walking robots, as well as efficient self-supervised learning of control policies.
Bayesian adaptive inference is widely used in psychophysics to estimate psychometric parameters. Most applications used myopic one-step ahead strategy which only optimizes the immediate utility. The widely held expectation is that global optimization strategies that explicitly optimize over some horizon can largely improve the performance of the myopic strategy. With limited studies that compared myopic and global strategies, the expectation was not challenged and researchers are still investing heavily to achieve global optimization. Is that really worthwhile? This paper provides a discouraging answer based on experimental simulations comparing the performance improvement and computation burden between global and myopic strategies in parameter estimation of multiple models. The finding is that the added horizon in global strategies has negligible contributions to the improvement of optimal global utility other than the most immediate next steps (of myopic strategy). Mathematical recursion is derived to prove that the contribution of utility improvement of each added horizon step diminishes fast as that step moves further into the future.
Dynamic texture (DT) segmentation, and video processing in general, is currently widely dominated by methods based on deep neural networks that require the deployment of a large number of layers. Although this parametric approach has shown superior performances for the dynamic texture segmentation, all current deep learning methods suffer from a significant main weakness related to the lack of a sufficient reference annotation to train models and to make them functional. This study explores the unsupervised segmentation approach that can be used in the absence of training data to segment new videos. We present an effective unsupervised learning consensus model for the segmentation of dynamic texture (ULCM). This model is designed to merge different segmentation maps that contain multiple and weak quality regions in order to achieve a more accurate final result of segmentation. The diverse labeling fields required for the combination process are obtained by a simplified grouping scheme applied to an input video (on the basis of a three orthogonal planes: xy, yt and xt). In the proposed model, the set of values of the requantized local binary patterns (LBP) histogram around the pixel to be classified are used as features which represent both the spatial and temporal information replicated in the video. Experiments conducted on the challenging SynthDB dataset show that, contrary to current dynamic texture segmentation approaches that either require parameter estimation or a training step, ULCM is significantly faster, easier to code, simple and has limited parameters. Further qualitative experiments based on the YUP++ dataset prove the efficiently and competitively of the ULCM.
Set classification aims to classify a set of observations as a whole, as opposed to classifying individual observations separately. To formally understand the unfamiliar concept of binary set classification, we first investigate the optimal decision rule under the normal distribution, which utilizes the empirical covariance of the set to be classified. We show that the number of observations in the set plays a critical role in bounding the Bayes risk. Under this framework, we further propose new methods of set classification. For the case where only a few parameters of the model drive the difference between two classes, we propose a computationally-efficient approach to parameter estimation using linear programming, leading to the Covariance-engaged LInear Programming Set (CLIPS) classifier. Its theoretical properties are investigated for both independent case and various (short-range and long-range dependent) time series structures among observations within each set. The convergence rates of estimation errors and risk of the CLIPS classifier are established to show that having multiple observations in a set leads to faster convergence rates, compared to the standard classification situation in which there is only one observation in the set. The applicable domains in which the CLIPS performs better than competitors are highlighted in a comprehensive simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methods in classification of real image data in histopathology.
The time evolution of dynamical systems is frequently described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), which must be solved for given initial conditions. Most standard approaches numerically integrate ODEs producing a single solution whose values are computed at discrete times. When many varied solutions with different initial conditions to the ODE are required, the computational cost can become significant. We propose that a neural network be used as a solution bundle, a collection of solutions to an ODE for various initial states and system parameters. The neural network solution bundle is trained with an unsupervised loss that does not require any prior knowledge of the sought solutions, and the resulting object is differentiable in initial conditions and system parameters. The solution bundle exhibits fast, parallelizable evaluation of the system state, facilitating the use of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation in real dynamical systems.
We provide the first global model recovery results for the IRLS (iteratively reweighted least squares) heuristic for robust regression problems. IRLS is known to offer excellent performance, despite bad initializations and data corruption, for several parameter estimation problems. Existing analyses of IRLS frequently require careful initialization, thus offering only local convergence guarantees. We remedy this by proposing augmentations to the basic IRLS routine that not only offer guaranteed global recovery, but in practice also outperform state-of-the-art algorithms for robust regression. Our routines are more immune to hyperparameter misspecification in basic regression tasks, as well as applied tasks such as linear-armed bandit problems. Our theoretical analyses rely on a novel extension of the notions of strong convexity and smoothness to weighted strong convexity and smoothness, and establishing that sub-Gaussian designs offer bounded weighted condition numbers. These notions may be useful in analyzing other algorithms as well.
We show that the mutual information between the representation of a learning machine and the hidden features that it extracts from data is bounded from below by the relevance, which is the entropy of the model's energy distribution. Models with maximal relevance -- that we call Optimal Learning Machines (OLM) -- are hence expected to extract maximally informative representations. We explore this principle in a range of models. For fully connected Ising models and we show that {\em i)} OLM are characterised by inhomogeneous distributions of couplings, and that {\em ii)} their learning performance is affected by sub-extensive features that are elusive to a thermodynamic treatment. On specific learning tasks, we find that likelihood maximisation is achieved by models with maximal relevance. Training of Restricted Boltzmann Machines on the MNIST benchmark shows that learning is associated with a broadening of the spectrum of energy levels and that the internal representation of the hidden layer approaches the maximal relevance that can be achieved in a finite dataset. Finally, we discuss a Gaussian learning machine that clarifies that learning hidden features is conceptually different from parameter estimation.