Sepsis is a leading cause of mortality in intensive care units (ICUs), representing a substantial medical challenge. The complexity of analyzing diverse vital signs to predict sepsis further aggravates this issue. While deep learning techniques have been advanced for early sepsis prediction, their 'black-box' nature obscures the internal logic, impairing interpretability in critical settings like ICUs. This paper introduces a framework that combines a deep learning model with an attention mechanism that highlights the critical time steps in the forecasting process, thus improving model interpretability and supporting clinical decision-making. We show that the attention mechanism could be adapted to various black box time series forecasting models such as N-HiTS and N-BEATS. Our method preserves the accuracy of conventional deep learning models while enhancing interpretability through attention-weight-generated heatmaps. We evaluated our model on the eICU-CRD dataset, focusing on forecasting vital signs for sepsis patients. We assessed its performance using mean squared error (MSE) and dynamic time warping (DTW) metrics. We explored the attention maps of N-HiTS and N-BEATS, examining the differences in their performance and identifying crucial factors influencing vital sign forecasting.
Signal detection and modulation classification are two crucial tasks in various wireless communication systems. Different from prior works that investigate them independently, this paper studies the joint signal detection and automatic modulation classification (AMC) by considering a realistic and complex scenario, in which multiple signals with different modulation schemes coexist at different carrier frequencies. We first generate a coexisting RADIOML dataset (CRML23) to facilitate the joint design. Different from the publicly available AMC dataset ignoring the signal detection step and containing only one signal, our synthetic dataset covers the more realistic multiple-signal coexisting scenario. Then, we present a joint framework for detection and classification (JDM) for such a multiple-signal coexisting environment, which consists of two modules for signal detection and AMC, respectively. In particular, these two modules are interconnected using a designated data structure called "proposal". Finally, we conduct extensive simulations over the newly developed dataset, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our designs. Our code and dataset are now available as open-source (https://github.com/Singingkettle/ChangShuoRadioData).
Human Activity Recognition (HAR) is a well-studied field with research dating back to the 1980s. Over time, HAR technologies have evolved significantly from manual feature extraction, rule-based algorithms, and simple machine learning models to powerful deep learning models, from one sensor type to a diverse array of sensing modalities. The scope has also expanded from recognising a limited set of activities to encompassing a larger variety of both simple and complex activities. However, there still exist many challenges that hinder advancement in complex activity recognition using modern deep learning methods. In this paper, we comprehensively systematise factors leading to inaccuracy in complex HAR, such as data variety and model capacity. Among many sensor types, we give more attention to wearable and camera due to their prevalence. Through this Systematisation of Knowledge (SoK) paper, readers can gain a solid understanding of the development history and existing challenges of HAR, different categorisations of activities, obstacles in deep learning-based complex HAR that impact accuracy, and potential research directions.
In the current landscape of pervasive smartphones and tablets, apps frequently exist across both platforms. Although apps share most graphic user interfaces (GUIs) and functionalities across phones and tablets, developers often rebuild from scratch for tablet versions, escalating costs and squandering existing design resources. Researchers are attempting to collect data and employ deep learning in automated GUIs development to enhance developers' productivity. There are currently several publicly accessible GUI page datasets for phones, but none for pairwise GUIs between phones and tablets. This poses a significant barrier to the employment of deep learning in automated GUI development. In this paper, we introduce the Papt dataset, a pioneering pairwise GUI dataset tailored for Android phones and tablets, encompassing 10,035 phone-tablet GUI page pairs sourced from 5,593 unique app pairs. We propose novel pairwise GUI collection approaches for constructing this dataset and delineate its advantages over currently prevailing datasets in the field. Through preliminary experiments on this dataset, we analyze the present challenges of utilizing deep learning in automated GUI development.
A survival analysis model for predicting time-to-total knee replacement (TKR) was developed using features from medical images and clinical measurements. Supervised and self-supervised deep learning approaches were utilized to extract features from radiographs and magnetic resonance images. Extracted features were combined with clinical and image assessments for survival analysis using random survival forests. The proposed model demonstrated high discrimination power by combining deep learning features and clinical and image assessments using a fusion of multiple modalities. The model achieved an accuracy of 75.6% and a C-Index of 84.8% for predicting the time-to-TKR surgery. Accurate time-to-TKR predictions have the potential to help assist physicians to personalize treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.
Recently, there has been a significant focus on exploring the theoretical aspects of deep learning, especially regarding its performance in classification tasks. Bayesian deep learning has emerged as a unified probabilistic framework, seeking to integrate deep learning with Bayesian methodologies seamlessly. However, there exists a gap in the theoretical understanding of Bayesian approaches in deep learning for classification. This study presents an attempt to bridge that gap. By leveraging PAC-Bayes bounds techniques, we present theoretical results on the prediction or misclassification error of a probabilistic approach utilizing Spike-and-Slab priors for sparse deep learning in classification. We establish non-asymptotic results for the prediction error. Additionally, we demonstrate that, by considering different architectures, our results can achieve minimax optimal rates in both low and high-dimensional settings, up to a logarithmic factor. Moreover, our additional logarithmic term yields slight improvements over previous works. Additionally, we propose and analyze an automated model selection approach aimed at optimally choosing a network architecture with guaranteed optimality.
Traffic congestion has significant impacts on both the economy and the environment. Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) have long been the standard for evaluating traffic intersections' level of service and operational efficiency. However, the scarcity of traditional high-resolution loop detector data (ATSPM) presents challenges in accurately measuring MOEs or capturing the intricate spatiotemporal characteristics inherent in urban intersection traffic. To address this challenge, we present a comprehensive intersection traffic flow simulation that utilizes a multi-task learning paradigm. This approach combines graph convolutions for primary estimating lane-wise exit and inflow with time series convolutions for secondary assessing multi-directional queue lengths and travel time distribution through any arbitrary urban traffic intersection. Compared to existing deep learning methodologies, the proposed Multi-Task Deep Learning Digital Twin (MTDT) distinguishes itself through its adaptability to local temporal and spatial features, such as signal timing plans, intersection topology, driving behaviors, and turning movement counts. We also show the benefit of multi-task learning in the effectiveness of individual traffic simulation tasks. Furthermore, our approach facilitates sequential computation and provides complete parallelization through GPU implementation. This not only streamlines the computational process but also enhances scalability and performance.
The escalation in urban private car ownership has worsened the urban parking predicament, necessitating effective parking availability prediction for urban planning and management. However, the existing prediction methods suffer from low prediction accuracy with the lack of spatial-temporal correlation features related to parking volume, and neglect of flow patterns and correlations between similar parking lots within certain areas. To address these challenges, this study proposes a parking availability prediction framework integrating spatial-temporal deep learning with multi-source data fusion, encompassing traffic demand data from multiple sources (e.g., metro, bus, taxi services), and parking lot data. The framework is based on the Transformer as the spatial-temporal deep learning model and leverages K-means clustering to establish parking cluster zones, extracting and integrating traffic demand characteristics from various transportation modes (i.e., metro, bus, online ride-hailing, and taxi) connected to parking lots. Real-world empirical data was used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with different machine learning, deep learning, and traditional statistical models for predicting parking availability. Experimental results reveal that, with the proposed pipeline, the developed Transformer model outperforms other models in terms of various metrics, e.g., Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). By fusing multi-source demanding data with spatial-temporal deep learning techniques, this approach offers the potential to develop parking availability prediction systems that furnish more accurate and timely information to both drivers and urban planners, thereby fostering more efficient and sustainable urban mobility.
Background and Purpose: Identifying the thromboembolism source in ischemic stroke is crucial for treatment and secondary prevention yet is often undetermined. This study describes a self-supervised deep learning approach in digital pathology of emboli for classifying ischemic stroke clot origin from histopathological images. Methods: The dataset included whole slide images (WSI) from the STRIP AI Kaggle challenge, consisting of retrieved clots from ischemic stroke patients following mechanical thrombectomy. Transformer-based deep learning models were developed using transfer learning and self-supervised pretraining for classifying WSI. Customizations included an attention pooling layer, weighted loss function, and threshold optimization. Various model architectures were tested and compared, and model performances were primarily evaluated using weighted logarithmic loss. Results: The model achieved a logloss score of 0.662 in cross-validation and 0.659 on the test set. Different model backbones were compared, with the swin_large_patch4_window12_384 showed higher performance. Thresholding techniques for clot origin classification were employed to balance false positives and negatives. Conclusion: The study demonstrates the extent of efficacy of transformer-based deep learning models in identifying ischemic stroke clot origins from histopathological images and emphasizes the need for refined modeling techniques specifically adapted to thrombi WSI. Further research is needed to improve model performance, interpretability, validate its effectiveness. Future enhancement could include integrating larger patient cohorts, advanced preprocessing strategies, and exploring ensemble multimodal methods for enhanced diagnostic accuracy.
Bridging the gap between the practical performance of deep learning and its theoretical foundations often involves analyzing neural networks through stochastic gradient descent (SGD). Expanding on previous research that focused on modeling structured inputs under a simple Gaussian setting, we analyze the behavior of a deep learning system trained on inputs modeled as Gaussian mixtures to better simulate more general structured inputs. Through empirical analysis and theoretical investigation, we demonstrate that under certain standardization schemes, the deep learning model converges toward Gaussian setting behavior, even when the input data follow more complex or real-world distributions. This finding exhibits a form of universality in which diverse structured distributions yield results consistent with Gaussian assumptions, which can support the theoretical understanding of deep learning models.
Nonlinear differential equations are encountered as models of fluid flow, spiking neurons, and many other systems of interest in the real world. Common features of these systems are that their behaviors are difficult to describe exactly and invariably unmodeled dynamics present challenges in making precise predictions. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven linear estimator based on Koopman operator theory to extract meaningful finite-dimensional representations of complex non-linear systems. The Koopman model is used together with deep reinforcement networks that learn the optimal stepwise actions to predict future states of nonlinear systems. Our estimator is also adaptive to a diffeomorphic transformation of the estimated nonlinear system, which enables it to compute optimal state estimates without re-learning.
With the development of technology, the chemical production process is becoming increasingly complex and large-scale, making fault detection particularly important. However, current detective methods struggle to address the complexities of large-scale production processes. In this paper, we integrate the strengths of deep learning and machine learning technologies, combining the advantages of bidirectional long and short-term memory neural networks, fully connected neural networks, and the extra trees algorithm to propose a novel fault detection model named three-layer deep learning network random trees (TDLN-trees). First, the deep learning component extracts temporal features from industrial data, combining and transforming them into a higher-level data representation. Second, the machine learning component processes and classifies the features extracted in the first step. An experimental analysis based on the Tennessee Eastman process verifies the superiority of the proposed method.
Deep learning models are widely used in traffic forecasting and have achieved state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. However, the black-box nature of those models makes the results difficult to interpret by users. This study aims to leverage an Explainable AI approach, counterfactual explanations, to enhance the explainability and usability of deep learning-based traffic forecasting models. Specifically, the goal is to elucidate relationships between various input contextual features and their corresponding predictions. We present a comprehensive framework that generates counterfactual explanations for traffic forecasting and provides usable insights through the proposed scenario-driven counterfactual explanations. The study first implements a deep learning model to predict traffic speed based on historical traffic data and contextual variables. Counterfactual explanations are then used to illuminate how alterations in these input variables affect predicted outcomes, thereby enhancing the transparency of the deep learning model. We investigated the impact of contextual features on traffic speed prediction under varying spatial and temporal conditions. The scenario-driven counterfactual explanations integrate two types of user-defined constraints, directional and weighting constraints, to tailor the search for counterfactual explanations to specific use cases. These tailored explanations benefit machine learning practitioners who aim to understand the model's learning mechanisms and domain experts who seek insights for real-world applications. The results showcase the effectiveness of counterfactual explanations in revealing traffic patterns learned by deep learning models, showing its potential for interpreting black-box deep learning models used for spatiotemporal predictions in general.
The positive correlation test for asymmetric information developed by Chiappori and Salanie (2000) has been applied in many insurance markets. Most of the literature focuses on the special case of constant correlation; it also relies on restrictive parametric specifications for the choice of coverage and the occurrence of claims. We relax these restrictions by estimating conditional covariances and correlations using deep learning methods. We test the positive correlation property by using the intersection test of Chernozhukov, Lee, and Rosen (2013) and the "sorted groups" test of Chernozhukov, Demirer, Duflo, and Fernandez-Val (2023). Our results confirm earlier findings that the correlation between risk and coverage is small. Random forests and gradient boosting trees produce similar results to neural networks.
Community detection is an important task in social network analysis. Existing methods typically use the topological information alone, and ignore the rich information available in the content data. Recently, some researchers have noticed that user profiles can also benefit to community detection, and hence the combination of topology and node contents has become a new hot topic. Some methods using both topology and content have been proposed. However, they often suffer from two drawbacks: 1) they cannot extract a potential deep representation of the network; 2) they cannot automatically weight different information sources with adequate balance parameters. To overcome these issues, we propose a deep integration representation (DIR) algorithm via deep joint reconstruction, which is motivated by the similarity between deep feedforward auto-encoders and spectral clustering in terms of matrix reconstruction. Thanks to spectral clustering which is one of the best community detection methods, the proposed new method is also good at community discovery task. In addition, DIR has further benefit because it not only provides a nonlinear and deep representation of the network, but also learns the most suitable balance between different components automatically. We compare the proposed new approach with nine state-of-the-art community detection methods on eight real relatively large networks. The experimental results show the definite superiority of this new approach.
With the ever-growing presence of deep artificial neural networks in every facet of modern life, a growing body of researchers in educational data science -- a field consisting of various interrelated research communities -- have turned their attention to leveraging these powerful algorithms within the domain of education. Use cases range from advanced knowledge tracing models that can leverage open-ended student essays or snippets of code to automatic affect and behavior detectors that can identify when a student is frustrated or aimlessly trying to solve problems unproductively -- and much more. This chapter provides a brief introduction to deep learning, describes some of its advantages and limitations, presents a survey of its many uses in education, and discusses how it may further come to shape the field of educational data science.
The forecast accuracy of machine learning (ML) weather prediction models is improving rapidly, leading many to speak of a "second revolution in weather forecasting". With numerous methods being developed and limited physical guarantees offered by ML models, there is a critical need for a comprehensive evaluation of these emerging techniques. While this need has been partly fulfilled by benchmark datasets, they provide little information on rare and impactful extreme events or on compound impact metrics, for which model accuracy might degrade due to misrepresented dependencies between variables. To address these issues, we compare ML weather prediction models (GraphCast, PanguWeather, and FourCastNet) and ECMWF's high-resolution forecast system (HRES) in three case studies: the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, the 2023 South Asian humid heatwave, and the North American winter storm in 2021. We find that ML weather prediction models locally achieve similar accuracy to HRES on the record-shattering Pacific Northwest heatwave but underperform when aggregated over space and time. However, they forecast the compound winter storm substantially better. We also highlight structural differences in how the errors of HRES and the ML models build up to that event. The ML forecasts lack important variables for a detailed assessment of the health risks of the 2023 humid heatwave. Using a possible substitute variable, prediction errors show spatial patterns with the highest danger levels over Bangladesh being underestimated by the ML models. Generally, case-study-driven, impact-centric evaluation can complement existing research, increase public trust, and aid in developing reliable ML weather prediction models.
During the three month long eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii in 2018, the pre-existing summit caldera collapsed in over 60 quasi-periodic failure events. The last 40 of these events, which generated Mw >5 very long period (VLP) earthquakes, had inter-event times between 0.8 - 2.2 days. These failure events offer a unique dataset for testing methods for predicting earthquake recurrence based on locally recorded GPS, tilt, and seismicity data. In this work, we train a deep learning graph neural network (GNN) to predict the time-to-failure of the caldera collapse events using only a fraction of the data recorded at the start of each cycle. We find that the GNN generalizes to unseen data and can predict the time-to-failure to within a few hours using only 0.5 days of data, substantially improving upon a null model based only on inter-event statistics. Predictions improve with increasing input data length, and are most accurate when using high-SNR tilt-meter data. Applying the trained GNN to synthetic data with different magma pressure decay times predicts failure at a nearly constant stress threshold, revealing that the GNN is sensing the underling physics of caldera collapse. These findings demonstrate the predictability of caldera collapse sequences under well monitored conditions, and highlight the potential of machine learning methods for forecasting real world catastrophic events with limited training data.
While recent advances in deep learning have demonstrated its transformative potential, its adoption for real-world manufacturing applications remains limited. We present an Explanation User Interface (XUI) for a state-of-the-art deep learning-based robot program optimizer which provides both naive and expert users with different user experiences depending on their skill level, as well as Explainable AI (XAI) features to facilitate the application of deep learning methods in real-world applications. To evaluate the impact of the XUI on task performance, user satisfaction and cognitive load, we present the results of a preliminary user survey and propose a study design for a large-scale follow-up study.
The paper examines the performance of regression models (OLS linear regression, Ridge regression, Random Forest, and Fully-connected Neural Network) on the prediction of CMA (Conservative Minus Aggressive) factor premium and the performance of factor timing investment with them. Out-of-sample R-squared shows that more flexible models have better performance in explaining the variance in factor premium of the unseen period, and the back testing affirms that the factor timing based on more flexible models tends to over perform the ones with linear models. However, for flexible models like neural networks, the optimal weights based on their prediction tend to be unstable, which can lead to high transaction costs and market impacts. We verify that tilting down the rebalance frequency according to the historical optimal rebalancing scheme can help reduce the transaction costs.