Recently, neural networks have spread into numerous fields including many safety-critical systems. Neural networks are built (and trained) by programming in frameworks such as TensorFlow and PyTorch. Developers apply a rich set of pre-defined layers to manually program neural networks or to automatically generate them (e.g., through AutoML). Composing neural networks with different layers is error-prone due to the non-trivial constraints that must be satisfied in order to use those layers. In this work, we propose an approach to automatically repair erroneous neural networks. The challenge is in identifying a minimal modification to the network so that it becomes valid. Modifying a layer might have cascading effects on subsequent layers and thus our approach must search recursively to identify a "globally" minimal modification. Our approach is based on an executable semantics of deep learning layers and focuses on four kinds of errors which are common in practice. We evaluate our approach for two usage scenarios, i.e., repairing automatically generated neural networks and manually written ones suffering from common model bugs. The results show that we are able to repair 100% of a set of randomly generated neural networks (which are produced with an existing AI framework testing approach) effectively and efficiently (with an average repair time of 21.08s) and 93.75% of a collection of real neural network bugs (with an average time of 3min 40s).
High-fidelity simulators that connect theoretical models with observations are indispensable tools in many sciences. When coupled with machine learning, a simulator makes it possible to infer the parameters of a theoretical model directly from real and simulated observations without explicit use of the likelihood function. This is of particular interest when the latter is intractable. In this work, we introduce a simple extension of the recently proposed likelihood-free frequentist inference (LF2I) approach that has some computational advantages. Like LF2I, this extension yields provably valid confidence sets in parameter inference problems in which a high-fidelity simulator is available. The utility of our algorithm is illustrated by applying it to three pedagogically interesting examples: the first is from cosmology, the second from high-energy physics and astronomy, both with tractable likelihoods, while the third, with an intractable likelihood, is from epidemiology.
Models of diffusive processes that occur on evolving domains are frequently employed to describe biological and physical phenomena, such as diffusion within expanding tissues or substrates. Previous investigations into these models either report numerical solutions or require an assumption of linear diffusion to determine exact solutions. Unfortunately, numerical solutions do not reveal the relationship between the model parameters and the solution features. Additionally, experimental observations typically report the presence of sharp fronts, which are not captured by linear diffusion. Here we address both limitations by presenting exact sharp-fronted solutions to a model of degenerate nonlinear diffusion on a growing domain. We obtain the solution by identifying a series of transformations that converts the model of a nonlinear diffusive process on an evolving domain to a nonlinear diffusion equation on a fixed domain, which admits known exact solutions for certain choices of diffusivity functions. We determine expressions for critical time scales and domain growth rates such that the diffusive population never reaches the domain boundaries and hence the solution remains valid.
We study the properties of conformal prediction for network data under various sampling mechanisms that commonly arise in practice but often result in a non-representative sample of nodes. We interpret these sampling mechanisms as selection rules applied to a superpopulation and study the validity of conformal prediction conditional on an appropriate selection event. We show that the sampled subarray is exchangeable conditional on the selection event if the selection rule satisfies a permutation invariance property and a joint exchangeability condition holds for the superpopulation. Our result implies the finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events related to ego networks and snowball sampling. We also show that when data are sampled via a random walk on a graph, a variant of weighted conformal prediction yields asymptotically valid prediction sets for an independently selected node from the population.
Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial heterogeneity and dependence. However, existing implementations of doubly-stochastic spatial models are computationally demanding, often have limited theoretical guarantee, and/or rely on restrictive assumptions. We propose a penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes that is computationally efficient and does not require a parametric form or stationarity of the underlying intensity. Our approach is based on an approximate (discrete and deterministic) formulation of the true (continuous and stochastic) intensity function. We show that consistency and asymptotic normality of the covariate effect estimates can be achieved despite the model misspecification, and develop a covariance estimator that leads to a valid, albeit conservative, statistical inference procedure. A simulation study shows the validity of our approach under less restrictive assumptions on the data generating mechanism, and an application to Seattle crime data demonstrates better prediction accuracy compared with existing alternatives.
Conducting valid statistical analyses is challenging in the presence of missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data, where the missingness mechanism is dependent on the missing values themselves even conditioned on the observed data. Here, we consider a MNAR model that generalizes several prior popular MNAR models in two ways: first, it is less restrictive in terms of statistical independence assumptions imposed on the underlying joint data distribution, and second, it allows for all variables in the observed sample to have missing values. This MNAR model corresponds to a so-called criss-cross structure considered in the literature on graphical models of missing data that prevents nonparametric identification of the entire missing data model. Nonetheless, part of the complete-data distribution remains nonparametrically identifiable. By exploiting this fact and considering a rich class of exponential family distributions, we establish sufficient conditions for identification of the complete-data distribution as well as the entire missingness mechanism. We then propose methods for testing the independence restrictions encoded in such models using odds ratio as our parameter of interest. We adopt two semiparametric approaches for estimating the odds ratio parameter and establish the corresponding asymptotic theories: one involves maximizing a conditional likelihood with order statistics and the other uses estimating equations. The utility of our methods is illustrated via simulation studies.
In classification and forecasting with tabular data, one often utilizes tree-based models. Those can be competitive with deep neural networks on tabular data and, under some conditions, explainable. The explainability depends on the depth of the tree and the accuracy in each leaf of the tree. We point out that decision trees containing leaves with unbalanced accuracy can provide misleading explanations. Low-accuracy leaves give less valid explanations, which could be interpreted as unfairness among subgroups utilizing these explanations. Here, we train a shallow tree with the objective of minimizing the maximum misclassification error across all leaf nodes. The shallow tree provides a global explanation, while the overall statistical performance of the shallow tree can become comparable to state-of-the-art methods (e.g., well-tuned XGBoost) by extending the leaves with further models.
When using machine learning for fault detection, a common problem is the fact that most data sets are very unbalanced, with the minority class (a fault) being the interesting one. In this paper, we investigate the usage of Venn-Abers predictors, looking specifically at the effect on the minority class predictions. A key property of Venn-Abers predictors is that they output well-calibrated probability intervals. In the experiments, we apply Venn-Abers calibration to decision trees, random forests and XGBoost models, showing how both overconfident and underconfident models are corrected. In addition, the benefit of using the valid probability intervals produced by Venn-Abers for decision support is demonstrated. When using techniques producing opaque underlying models, e.g., random forest and XGBoost, each prediction will consist of not only the label, but also a valid probability interval, where the width is an indication of the confidence in the estimate. Adding Venn-Abers on top of a decision tree allows inspection and analysis of the model, to understand both the underlying relationship, and finding out in which parts of feature space that the model is accurate and/or confident.
AI assistance continues to help advance applications in education, from language learning to intelligent tutoring systems, yet current methods for providing students feedback are still quite limited. Most automatic feedback systems either provide binary correctness feedback, which may not help a student understand how to improve, or require hand-coding feedback templates, which may not generalize to new domains. This can be particularly challenging for physical control tasks, where the rich diversity in student behavior and specialized domains make it challenging to leverage general-purpose assistive tools for providing feedback. We design and build CORGI, a model trained to generate language corrections for physical control tasks, such as learning to ride a bike. CORGI takes in as input a pair of student and expert trajectories, and then generates natural language corrections to help the student improve. We collect and train CORGI over data from three diverse physical control tasks (drawing, steering, and joint movement). Through both automatic and human evaluations, we show that CORGI can (i) generate valid feedback for novel student trajectories, (ii) outperform baselines on domains with novel control dynamics, and (iii) improve student learning in an interactive drawing task.
In this paper, we investigate a semiparametric regression model under the context of treatment effects via a localized neural network (LNN) approach. Due to a vast number of parameters involved, we reduce the number of effective parameters by (i) exploring the use of identification restrictions; and (ii) adopting a variable selection method based on the group-LASSO technique. Subsequently, we derive the corresponding estimation theory and propose a dependent wild bootstrap procedure to construct valid inferences accounting for the dependence of data. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings through extensive numerical studies. In an empirical study, we revisit the impacts of a tightening monetary policy action on a variety of economic variables, including short-/long-term interest rate, inflation, unemployment rate, industrial price and equity return via the newly proposed framework using a monthly dataset of the US.
Insufficient prior knowledge of a captured hyperspectral image (HSI) scene may lead the experts or the automatic labeling systems to offer incorrect labels or ambiguous labels (i.e., assigning each training sample to a group of candidate labels, among which only one of them is valid; this is also known as partial label learning) during the labeling process. Accordingly, how to learn from such data with ambiguous labels is a problem of great practical importance. In this letter, we propose a novel superpixelwise low-rank approximation (LRA)-based partial label learning method, namely SLAP, which is the first to take into account partial label learning in HSI classification. SLAP is mainly composed of two phases: disambiguating the training labels and acquiring the predictive model. Specifically, in the first phase, we propose a superpixelwise LRA-based model, preparing the affinity graph for the subsequent label propagation process while extracting the discriminative representation to enhance the following classification task of the second phase. Then to disambiguate the training labels, label propagation propagates the labeling information via the affinity graph of training pixels. In the second phase, we take advantage of the resulting disambiguated training labels and the discriminative representations to enhance the classification performance. The extensive experiments validate the advantage of the proposed SLAP method over state-of-the-art methods.
Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.
An important aspect of developing reliable deep learning systems is devising strategies that make these systems robust to adversarial attacks. There is a long line of work that focuses on developing defenses against these attacks, but recently, researchers have began to study ways to reverse engineer the attack process. This allows us to not only defend against several attack models, but also classify the threat model. However, there is still a lack of theoretical guarantees for the reverse engineering process. Current approaches that give any guarantees are based on the assumption that the data lies in a union of linear subspaces, which is not a valid assumption for more complex datasets. In this paper, we build on prior work and propose a novel framework for reverse engineering of deceptions which supposes that the clean data lies in the range of a GAN. To classify the signal and attack, we jointly solve a GAN inversion problem and a block-sparse recovery problem. For the first time in the literature, we provide deterministic linear convergence guarantees for this problem. We also empirically demonstrate the merits of the proposed approach on several nonlinear datasets as compared to state-of-the-art methods.
In computational social science (CSS), researchers analyze documents to explain social and political phenomena. In most scenarios, CSS researchers first obtain labels for documents and then explain labels using interpretable regression analyses in the second step. One increasingly common way to annotate documents cheaply at scale is through large language models (LLMs). However, like other scalable ways of producing annotations, such surrogate labels are often imperfect and biased. We present a new algorithm for using imperfect annotation surrogates for downstream statistical analyses while guaranteeing statistical properties -- like asymptotic unbiasedness and proper uncertainty quantification -- which are fundamental to CSS research. We show that direct use of surrogate labels in downstream statistical analyses leads to substantial bias and invalid confidence intervals, even with high surrogate accuracy of 80-90%. To address this, we build on debiased machine learning to propose the design-based supervised learning (DSL) estimator. DSL employs a doubly-robust procedure to combine surrogate labels with a smaller number of high-quality, gold-standard labels. Our approach guarantees valid inference for downstream statistical analyses, even when surrogates are arbitrarily biased and without requiring stringent assumptions, by controlling the probability of sampling documents for gold-standard labeling. Both our theoretical analysis and experimental results show that DSL provides valid statistical inference while achieving root mean squared errors comparable to existing alternatives that focus only on prediction without inferential guarantees.
We address the problem of making Conformal Prediction (CP) intervals locally adaptive. Most existing methods focus on approximating the object-conditional validity of the intervals by partitioning or re-weighting the calibration set. Our strategy is new and conceptually different. Instead of re-weighting the calibration data, we redefine the conformity measure through a trainable change of variables, $A \to \phi_X(A)$, that depends explicitly on the object attributes, $X$. Under certain conditions and if $\phi_X$ is monotonic in $A$ for any $X$, the transformations produce prediction intervals that are guaranteed to be marginally valid and have $X$-dependent sizes. We describe how to parameterize and train $\phi_X$ to maximize the interval efficiency. Contrary to other CP-aware training methods, the objective function is smooth and can be minimized through standard gradient methods without approximations.
We propose two approaches to estimate semiparametric discrete choice models for bundles. Our first approach is a kernel-weighted rank estimator based on a matching-based identification strategy. We establish its complete asymptotic properties and prove the validity of the nonparametric bootstrap for inference. We then introduce a new multi-index least absolute deviations (LAD) estimator as an alternative, of which the main advantage is its capacity to estimate preference parameters on both alternative- and agent-specific regressors. Both methods can account for arbitrary correlation in disturbances across choices, with the former also allowing for interpersonal heteroskedasticity. We also demonstrate that the identification strategy underlying these procedures can be extended naturally to panel data settings, producing an analogous localized maximum score estimator and a LAD estimator for estimating bundle choice models with fixed effects. We derive the limiting distribution of the former and verify the validity of the numerical bootstrap as an inference tool. All our proposed methods can be applied to general multi-index models. Monte Carlo experiments show that they perform well in finite samples.
Recent advances in deep learning have witnessed many successful unsupervised image-to-image translation models that learn correspondences between two visual domains without paired data. However, it is still a great challenge to build robust mappings between various domains especially for those with drastic visual discrepancies. In this paper, we introduce a novel versatile framework, Generative Prior-guided UNsupervised Image-to-image Translation (GP-UNIT), that improves the quality, applicability and controllability of the existing translation models. The key idea of GP-UNIT is to distill the generative prior from pre-trained class-conditional GANs to build coarse-level cross-domain correspondences, and to apply the learned prior to adversarial translations to excavate fine-level correspondences. With the learned multi-level content correspondences, GP-UNIT is able to perform valid translations between both close domains and distant domains. For close domains, GP-UNIT can be conditioned on a parameter to determine the intensity of the content correspondences during translation, allowing users to balance between content and style consistency. For distant domains, semi-supervised learning is explored to guide GP-UNIT to discover accurate semantic correspondences that are hard to learn solely from the appearance. We validate the superiority of GP-UNIT over state-of-the-art translation models in robust, high-quality and diversified translations between various domains through extensive experiments.
Language models often achieve higher accuracy when reasoning step-by-step in complex tasks. However, even when arriving at a correct final answer, their rationales are often logically unsound or inconsistent. This is a major issue when reliable reasoning traces are needed, such when fine-tuning on model-generated reasoning for self-improvement. To tackle these issues, we introduce a class of tools for language models called \emph{guides}, that use state and incremental constraints to guide generation. A guide can be invoked by the model to constrain its own generation to a set of valid statements given by the tool. In turn, the model's choices can change the guide's state. We show how a general system for logical reasoning can be used as a guide, which we call \textsc{LogicGuide}. Given a reasoning problem in natural language, a model can formalize its assumptions for \textsc{LogicGuide} and guarantee that its step-by-step reasoning is sound. In experiments on PrOntoQA, ProofWriter and Syllogism Validity datasets, \textsc{LogicGuide} significantly improves the performance of GPT-3, GPT-3.5 Turbo and LLaMA (accuracy gains up to 35\%), while drastically reducing \emph{content effects} -- the interference between unwanted prior assumptions and reasoning, which humans and language models suffer from. We then explore bootstrapping GPT-3.5 Turbo and LLaMA using their own reasoning traces. We find that LogicGuide is critical: by training only on certified self-generated reasoning, models can self-improve, avoiding learning from their own hallucinations. Moreover, bootstrapped models enjoy significant boosts on ReClor, a challenging real-world reasoning dataset, even when not relying on formalization at inference time.
Counterfactual explanations can provide sample-based explanations of features required to modify from the original sample to change the classification result from an undesired state to a desired state; hence it provides interpretability of the model. Previous work of LatentCF presents an algorithm for image data that employs auto-encoder models to directly transform original samples into counterfactuals in a latent space representation. In our paper, we adapt the approach to time series classification and propose an improved algorithm named LatentCF++ which introduces additional constraints in the counterfactual generation process. We conduct an extensive experiment on a total of 40 datasets from the UCR archive, comparing to current state-of-the-art methods. Based on our evaluation metrics, we show that the LatentCF++ framework can with high probability generate valid counterfactuals and achieve …
Humor is a central aspect of human communication that has not been solved for artificial agents so far. Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly able to capture implicit and contextual information. Especially, OpenAI's ChatGPT recently gained immense public attention. The GPT3-based model almost seems to communicate on a human level and can even tell jokes. Humor is an essential component of human communication. But is ChatGPT really funny? We put ChatGPT's sense of humor to the test. In a series of exploratory experiments around jokes, i.e., generation, explanation, and detection, we seek to understand ChatGPT's capability to grasp and reproduce human humor. Since the model itself is not accessible, we applied prompt-based experiments. Our empirical evidence indicates that jokes are not hard-coded but mostly also not newly generated by the model. Over 90% of 1008 generated jokes were the same 25 Jokes. The system accurately explains valid jokes but also comes up with fictional explanations for invalid jokes. Joke-typical characteristics can mislead ChatGPT in the classification of jokes. ChatGPT has not solved computational humor yet but it can be a big leap toward "funny" machines.