Performing reliable Bayesian inference on a big data scale is becoming a keystone in the modern era of machine learning. A workhorse class of methods to achieve this task are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and their design to handle distributed datasets has been the subject of many works. However, existing methods are not completely either reliable or computationally efficient. In this paper, we propose to fill this gap in the case where the dataset is partitioned and stored on computing nodes within a cluster under a master/slaves architecture. We derive a user-friendly centralised distributed MCMC algorithm with provable scaling in high-dimensional settings. We illustrate the relevance of the proposed methodology on both synthetic and real data experiments.
Despite much research targeted at enabling conventional machine learning models to continually learn tasks and data distributions sequentially without forgetting the knowledge acquired, little effort has been devoted to account for more realistic situations where learning some tasks accurately might be more critical than forgetting previous ones. In this paper we propose a Bayesian inference based framework to continually learn a set of real-world, sensing-based analysis tasks that can be tuned to prioritize the remembering of previously learned tasks or the learning of new ones. Our experiments prove the robustness and reliability of the learned models to adapt to the changing sensing environment, and show the suitability of using uncertainty of the predictions to assess their reliability.
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the change dates of a time segmentation process trigger the renewal of a piece-wise constant emission law. Bayesian posterior information on the change dates and emission parameters is obtained. These estimations can be revised online, i.e. as new data arrive. This paper proposes explicit formulations corresponding to various emission laws, as well as a generalization to the case where only partially observed data are available. Practical applications include the returns of partially observed multi-asset investment strategies, when only scant prior knowledge of the movers of the returns is at hand, limited to some statistical assumptions. This situation is different from the study of trend changes in the returns of individual assets, where fundamental exogenous information (news, earnings announcements, controversies, etc.) can be used.
Variational Bayes (VB) is a critical method in machine learning and statistics, underpinning the recent success of Bayesian deep learning. The natural gradient is an essential component of efficient VB estimation, but it is prohibitively computationally expensive in high dimensions. We propose a computationally efficient regression-based method for natural gradient estimation, with convergence guarantees under standard assumptions. The method enables the use of quantum matrix inversion to further speed up VB. We demonstrate that the problem setup fulfills the conditions required for quantum matrix inversion to deliver computational efficiency. The method works with a broad range of statistical models and does not require special-purpose or simplified variational distributions.
Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We present a novel, domain-agnostic approach to tackling this problem, using compositions of physics-informed random features, derived from ordinary differential equations. The architecture of our model leverages recent advances in approximate inference for deep Gaussian processes, such as layer-wise weight-space approximations which allow us to incorporate random Fourier features, and stochastic variational inference for approximate Bayesian inference. We provide evidence that our model is capable of capturing highly nonlinear behaviour in real-world multivariate time series data. In addition, we find that our approach achieves comparable performance to a number of other probabilistic models on benchmark regression tasks.
Bayesian neural networks that incorporate data augmentation implicitly use a ``randomly perturbed log-likelihood [which] does not have a clean interpretation as a valid likelihood function'' (Izmailov et al. 2021). Here, we provide several approaches to developing principled Bayesian neural networks incorporating data augmentation. We introduce a ``finite orbit'' setting which allows likelihoods to be computed exactly, and give tight multi-sample bounds in the more usual ``full orbit'' setting. These models cast light on the origin of the cold posterior effect. In particular, we find that the cold posterior effect persists even in these principled models incorporating data augmentation. This suggests that the cold posterior effect cannot be dismissed as an artifact of data augmentation using incorrect likelihoods.
Adoption of deep neural networks in fields such as economics or finance has been constrained by the lack of interpretability of model outcomes. This paper proposes a generative neural network architecture - the parameter encoder neural network (PENN) - capable of estimating local posterior distributions for the parameters of a regression model. The parameters fully explain predictions in terms of the inputs and permit visualization, interpretation and inference in the presence of complex heterogeneous effects and feature dependencies. The use of Bayesian inference techniques offers an intuitive mechanism to regularize local parameter estimates towards a stable solution, and to reduce noise-fitting in settings of limited data availability. The proposed neural network is particularly well-suited to applications in economics and finance, where parameter inference plays an important role. An application to an asset pricing problem demonstrates how the PENN can be used to explore nonlinear risk dynamics in financial markets, and to compare empirical nonlinear effects to behavior posited by financial theory.
Boosting methods are widely used in statistical learning to deal with high-dimensional data due to their variable selection feature. However, those methods lack straightforward ways to construct estimators for the precision of the parameters such as variance or confidence interval, which can be achieved by conventional statistical methods like Bayesian inference. In this paper, we propose a new inference method "BayesBoost" that combines boosting and Bayesian for linear mixed models to make the uncertainty estimation for the random effects possible on the one hand. On the other hand, the new method overcomes the shortcomings of Bayesian inference in giving precise and unambiguous guidelines for the selection of covariates by benefiting from boosting techniques. The implementation of Bayesian inference leads to the randomness of model selection criteria like the conditional AIC (cAIC), so we also propose a cAIC-based model selection criteria that focus on the stabilized regions instead of the global minimum. The effectiveness of the new approach can be observed via simulation and in a data example from the field of neurophysiology focussing on the mechanisms in the brain while listening to unpleasant sounds.
Hawkes processes are a class of point processes that have the ability to model the self- and mutual-exciting phenomena. Although the classic Hawkes processes cover a wide range of applications, their expressive ability is limited due to three key hypotheses: parametric, linear and homogeneous. Recent work has attempted to address these limitations separately. This work aims to overcome all three assumptions simultaneously by proposing the flexible state-switching Hawkes processes: a flexible, nonlinear and nonhomogeneous variant where a state process is incorporated to interact with the point processes. The proposed model empowers Hawkes processes to be applied to time-varying systems. For inference, we utilize the latent variable augmentation technique to design two efficient Bayesian inference algorithms: Gibbs sampler and mean-field variational inference, with analytical iterative updates to estimate the posterior. In experiments, our model achieves superior performance compared to the state-of-the-art competitors.
Theories for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been formulated at different levels: ranging from physiological observations to perceptual and behavioral descriptions. Understanding the physiological underpinnings of perceptual traits in ASD remains a significant challenge in the field. Here we show how a recurrent neural circuit model which was optimized to perform sampling-based inference and displays characteristic features of cortical dynamics can help bridge this gap. The model was able to establish a mechanistic link between two descriptive levels for ASD: a physiological level, in terms of inhibitory dysfunction, neural variability and oscillations, and a perceptual level, in terms of hypopriors in Bayesian computations. We took two parallel paths: inducing hypopriors in the probabilistic model, and an inhibitory dysfunction in the network model, which lead to consistent results in terms of the represented posteriors, providing support for the view that both descriptions might constitute two sides of the same coin.
We present a novel offline-online method to mitigate the computational burden of the characterization of posterior random variables in statistical learning. In the offline phase, the proposed method learns the joint law of the parameter random variables and the observable random variables in the tensor-train (TT) format. In the online phase, the resulting order-preserving conditional transport can characterize the posterior random variables given newly observed data in real time. Compared with the state-of-the-art normalizing flow techniques, the proposed method relies on function approximation and is equipped with a thorough performance analysis. The function approximation perspective also allows us to further extend the capability of transport maps in challenging problems with high-dimensional observations and high-dimensional parameters. On the one hand, we present novel heuristics to reorder and/or reparametrize the variables to enhance the approximation power of TT. On the other hand, we integrate the TT-based transport maps and the parameter reordering/reparametrization into layered compositions to further improve the performance of the resulting transport maps. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method on various statistical learning tasks in ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and partial differential equations (PDEs).
The duality of sensory inference and motor control has been known since the 1960s and has recently been recognized as the commonality in computations required for the posterior distributions in Bayesian inference and the value functions in optimal control. Meanwhile, an intriguing question about the brain is why the entire neocortex shares a canonical six-layer architecture while its posterior and anterior halves are engaged in sensory processing and motor control, respectively. Here we consider the hypothesis that the sensory and motor cortical circuits implement the dual computations for Bayesian inference and optimal control, or perceptual and value-based decision making, respectively. We first review the classic duality of inference and control in linear quadratic systems and then review the correspondence between dynamic Bayesian inference and optimal control. Based on the architecture of the canonical cortical circuit, we explore how different cortical neurons may represent variables and implement computations.
Real-valued time series are ubiquitous in the sciences and engineering. In this work, a general, hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework is developed for building mixture models for times series. This development is based, in part, on the use of context trees, and it includes a collection of effective algorithmic tools for learning and inference. A discrete context (or 'state') is extracted for each sample, consisting of a discretised version of some of the most recent observations preceding it. The set of all relevant contexts are represented as a discrete context-tree. At the bottom level, a different real-valued time series model is associated with each context-state, i.e., with each leaf of the tree. This defines a very general framework that can be used in conjunction with any existing model class to build flexible and interpretable mixture models. Extending the idea of context-tree weighting leads to algorithms that allow for efficient, exact Bayesian inference in this setting. The utility of the general framework is illustrated in detail when autoregressive (AR) models are used at the bottom level, resulting in a nonlinear AR mixture model. The associated methods are found to outperform several state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world experiments.
We consider the privacy-preserving machine learning (ML) setting where the trained model must satisfy differential privacy (DP) with respect to the labels of the training examples. We propose two novel approaches based on, respectively, the Laplace mechanism and the PATE framework, and demonstrate their effectiveness on standard benchmarks. While recent work by Ghazi et al. proposed Label DP schemes based on a randomized response mechanism, we argue that additive Laplace noise coupled with Bayesian inference (ALIBI) is a better fit for typical ML tasks. Moreover, we show how to achieve very strong privacy levels in some regimes, with our adaptation of the PATE framework that builds on recent advances in semi-supervised learning. We complement theoretical analysis of our algorithms' privacy guarantees with empirical evaluation of their memorization properties. Our evaluation suggests that comparing different algorithms according to their provable DP guarantees can be misleading and favor a less private algorithm with a tighter analysis. Code for implementation of algorithms and memorization attacks is available from https://github.com/facebookresearch/label_dp_antipodes.
We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributions, Negative binomial regression, Poisson-Gamma hierarchical models, Extreme value models, to name but a few. All of those models include a gamma function which does not admit a natural conjugate prior distribution providing a significant challenge to inference and prediction. To provide a data augmentation strategy, we construct and develop the theory of the class of Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions. This allows scalable EM and MCMC algorithms to be developed. We illustrate our methodology on a number of examples, including gamma shape inference, negative binomial regression and Dirichlet allocation. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
In this paper, we propose a novel method for separately estimating spectral distributions from images captured by a typical RGB camera. The proposed method allows us to separately estimate a spectral distribution of illumination, reflectance, or camera sensitivity, while recent hyperspectral cameras are limited to capturing a joint spectral distribution from a scene. In addition, the use of Bayesian inference makes it possible to take into account prior information of both spectral distributions and image noise as probability distributions. As a result, the proposed method can estimate spectral distributions in a unified way, and it can enhance the robustness of the estimation against noise, which conventional spectral-distribution estimation methods cannot. The use of Bayesian inference also enables us to obtain the confidence of estimation results. In an experiment, the proposed method is shown not only to outperform conventional estimation methods in terms of RMSE but also to be robust against noise.
With the increased interest in machine learning and big data problems, the need for large amounts of labelled data has also grown. However, it is often infeasible to get experts to label all of this data, which leads many practitioners to crowdsourcing solutions. In this paper, we present new techniques to improve the quality of the labels while attempting to reduce the cost. The naive approach to assigning labels is to adopt a majority vote method, however, in the context of data labelling, this is not always ideal as data labellers are not equally reliable. One might, instead, give higher priority to certain labellers through some kind of weighted vote based on past performance. This paper investigates the use of more sophisticated methods, such as Bayesian inference, to measure the performance of the labellers as well as the confidence of each label. The methods we propose follow an iterative improvement algorithm which attempts to use the least amount of workers necessary to achieve the desired confidence in the inferred label. This paper explores simulated binary classification problems with simulated workers and questions to test the proposed methods. Our methods outperform the standard voting methods in both cost and accuracy while maintaining higher reliability when there is disagreement within the crowd.
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is a popular class of algorithms for scalable Bayesian inference. However, these algorithms include hyperparameters such as step size or batch size that influence the accuracy of estimators based on the obtained posterior samples. As a result, these hyperparameters must be tuned by the practitioner and currently no principled and automated way to tune them exists. Standard MCMC tuning methods based on acceptance rates cannot be used for SGMCMC, thus requiring alternative tools and diagnostics. We propose a novel bandit-based algorithm that tunes the SGMCMC hyperparameters by minimizing the Stein discrepancy between the true posterior and its Monte Carlo approximation. We provide theoretical results supporting this approach and assess various Stein-based discrepancies. We support our results with experiments on both simulated and real datasets, and find that this method is practical for a wide range of applications.
Deep neural networks offer numerous potential applications across geoscience, for example, one could argue that they are the state-of-the-art method for predicting faults in seismic datasets. In quantitative reservoir characterization workflows, it is common to incorporate the uncertainty of predictions thus such subsurface models should provide calibrated probabilities and the associated uncertainties in their predictions. It has been shown that popular Deep Learning-based models are often miscalibrated, and due to their deterministic nature, provide no means to interpret the uncertainty of their predictions. We compare three different approaches to obtaining probabilistic models based on convolutional neural networks in a Bayesian formalism, namely Deep Ensembles, Concrete Dropout, and Stochastic Weight Averaging-Gaussian (SWAG). These methods are consistently applied to fault detection case studies where Deep Ensembles use independently trained models to provide fault probabilities, Concrete Dropout represents an extension to the popular Dropout technique to approximate Bayesian neural networks, and finally, we apply SWAG, a recent method that is based on the Bayesian inference equivalence of mini-batch Stochastic Gradient Descent. We provide quantitative results in terms of model calibration and uncertainty representation, as well as qualitative results on synthetic and real seismic datasets. Our results show that the approximate Bayesian methods, Concrete Dropout and SWAG, both provide well-calibrated predictions and uncertainty attributes at a lower computational cost when compared to the baseline Deep Ensemble approach. The resulting uncertainties also offer a possibility to further improve the model performance as well as enhancing the interpretability of the models.
We consider the problem of modeling trajectories of drivers in a road network from the perspective of inverse reinforcement learning. Cars are detected by sensors placed on sparsely distributed points on the street network of a city. As rational agents, drivers are trying to maximize some reward function unknown to an external observer. We apply the concept of random utility from econometrics to model the unknown reward function as a function of observed and unobserved features. In contrast to current inverse reinforcement learning approaches, we do not assume that agents act according to a stochastic policy; rather, we assume that agents act according to a deterministic optimal policy and show that randomness in data arises because the exact rewards are not fully observed by an external observer. We introduce the concept of extended state to cope with unobserved features and develop a Markov decision process formulation of drivers decisions. We present theoretical results which guarantee the existence of solutions and show that maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning is a particular case of our approach. Finally, we illustrate Bayesian inference on model parameters through a case study with real trajectory data from a large city in Brazil.