A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model fitting times. The message passing and factor graph fragment approach to variational Bayes that is also described facilitates streamlined implementation of approximate inference algorithms and allows for supple inclusion of numerous response distributions and penalizations into the inverse problem model. Models for one- and two-dimensional response variables are examined and an infrastructure is laid down where efficient algorithm updates based on nullifying weak interactions between variables can also be derived for inverse problems in higher dimensions. An image processing application and a simulation exercise motivated by biomedical problems reveal the computational advantage offered by efficient implementation of variational Bayes over Markov chain Monte Carlo.
In this paper, we introduce a novel family of iterative algorithms which carry out $\alpha$-divergence minimisation in a Variational Inference context. They do so by ensuring a systematic decrease at each step in the $\alpha$-divergence between the variational and the posterior distributions. In its most general form, the variational distribution is a mixture model and our framework allows us to simultaneously optimise the weights and components parameters of this mixture model. Our approach permits us to build on various methods previously proposed for $\alpha$-divergence minimisation such as Gradient or Power Descent schemes and we also shed a new light on an integrated Expectation Maximization algorithm. Lastly, we provide empirical evidence that our methodology yields improved results on several multimodal target distributions and on a real data example.
This tutorial gives a quick introduction to Variational Bayes (VB), also called Variational Inference or Variational Approximation, from a practical point of view. The paper covers a range of commonly used VB methods and an attempt is made to keep the materials accessible to the wide community of data analysis practitioners. The aim is that the reader can quickly derive and implement their first VB algorithm for Bayesian inference with their data analysis problem. An end-user software package in Matlab together with the documentation can be found at https://vbayeslab.github.io/VBLabDocs/
Recently, particle-based variational inference (ParVI) methods have gained interest because they can avoid arbitrary parametric assumptions that are common in variational inference. However, many ParVI approaches do not allow arbitrary sampling from the posterior, and the few that do allow such sampling suffer from suboptimality. This work proposes a new method for learning to approximately sample from the posterior distribution. We construct a neural sampler that is trained with the functional gradient of the KL-divergence between the empirical sampling distribution and the target distribution, assuming the gradient resides within a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Our generative ParVI (GPVI) approach maintains the asymptotic performance of ParVI methods while offering the flexibility of a generative sampler. Through carefully constructed experiments, we show that GPVI outperforms previous generative ParVI methods such as amortized SVGD, and is competitive with ParVI as well as gold-standard approaches like Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for fitting both exactly known and intractable target distributions.
Advertising creatives are ubiquitous in E-commerce advertisements and aesthetic creatives may improve the click-through rate (CTR) of the products. Nowadays smart advertisement platforms provide the function of compositing creatives based on source materials provided by advertisers. Since a great number of creatives can be generated, it is difficult to accurately predict their CTR given a limited amount of feedback. Factorization machine (FM), which models inner product interaction between features, can be applied for the CTR prediction of creatives. However, interactions between creative elements may be more complex than the inner product, and the FM-estimated CTR may be of high variance due to limited feedback. To address these two issues, we propose an Automated Creative Optimization (AutoCO) framework to model complex interaction between creative elements and to balance between exploration and exploitation. Specifically, motivated by AutoML, we propose one-shot search algorithms for searching effective interaction functions between elements. We then develop stochastic variational inference to estimate the posterior distribution of parameters based on the reparameterization trick, and apply Thompson Sampling for efficiently exploring potentially better creatives. We evaluate the proposed method with both a synthetic dataset and two public datasets. The experimental results show our method can outperform competing baselines with respect to cumulative regret. The online A/B test shows our method leads to a 7 increase in CTR compared to the baseline.
Current black-box variational inference (BBVI) methods require the user to make numerous design choices -- such as the selection of variational objective and approximating family -- yet there is little principled guidance on how to do so. We develop a conceptual framework and set of experimental tools to understand the effects of these choices, which we leverage to propose best practices for maximizing posterior approximation accuracy. Our approach is based on studying the pre-asymptotic tail behavior of the density ratios between the joint distribution and the variational approximation, then exploiting insights and tools from the importance sampling literature. Our framework and supporting experiments help to distinguish between the behavior of BBVI methods for approximating low-dimensional versus moderate-to-high-dimensional posteriors. In the latter case, we show that mass-covering variational objectives are difficult to optimize and do not improve accuracy, but flexible variational families can improve accuracy and the effectiveness of importance sampling -- at the cost of additional optimization challenges. Therefore, for moderate-to-high-dimensional posteriors we recommend using the (mode-seeking) exclusive KL divergence since it is the easiest to optimize, and improving the variational family or using model parameter transformations to make the posterior and optimal variational approximation more similar. On the other hand, in low-dimensional settings, we show that heavy-tailed variational families and mass-covering divergences are effective and can increase the chances that the approximation can be improved by importance sampling.
It is important to estimate the errors of probabilistic inference algorithms. Existing diagnostics for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods assume inference is asymptotically exact, and are not appropriate for approximate methods like variational inference or Laplace's method. This paper introduces a diagnostic based on repeatedly simulating datasets from the prior and performing inference on each. The central observation is that it is possible to estimate a symmetric KL-divergence defined over these simulations.
Existing deterministic variational inference approaches for diffusion processes use simple proposals and target the marginal density of the posterior. We construct the variational process as a controlled version of the prior process and approximate the posterior by a set of moment functions. In combination with moment closure, the smoothing problem is reduced to a deterministic optimal control problem. Exploiting the path-wise Fisher information, we propose an optimization procedure that corresponds to a natural gradient descent in the variational parameters. Our approach allows for richer variational approximations that extend to state-dependent diffusion terms. The classical Gaussian process approximation is recovered as a special case.
We introduce a novel model for multilayer weighted networks that accounts for global noise in addition to local signals. The model is similar to a multilayer stochastic blockmodel (SBM), but the key difference is that between-block interactions independent across layers are common for the whole system, which we call ambient noise. A single block is also characterized by these fixed ambient parameters to represent members that do not belong anywhere else. This approach allows simultaneous clustering and typologizing of blocks into signal or noise in order to better understand their roles in the overall system, which is not accounted for by existing Blockmodels. We employ a novel application of hierarchical variational inference to jointly detect and differentiate types of blocks. We call this model for multilayer weighted networks the Stochastic Block (with) Ambient Noise Model (SBANM) and develop an associated community detection algorithm. We apply this method to subjects in the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort to discover communities of subjects with co-occurrent psychopathologies in relation to psychosis.
We develop variational Laplace for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) which exploits a local approximation of the curvature of the likelihood to estimate the ELBO without the need for stochastic sampling of the neural-network weights. The Variational Laplace objective is simple to evaluate, as it is (in essence) the log-likelihood, plus weight-decay, plus a squared-gradient regularizer. Variational Laplace gave better test performance and expected calibration errors than maximum a-posteriori inference and standard sampling-based variational inference, despite using the same variational approximate posterior. Finally, we emphasise care needed in benchmarking standard VI as there is a risk of stopping before the variance parameters have converged. We show that early-stopping can be avoided by increasing the learning rate for the variance parameters.
Volatility for financial assets returns can be used to gauge the risk for financial market. We propose a deep stochastic volatility model (DSVM) based on the framework of deep latent variable models. It uses flexible deep learning models to automatically detect the dependence of the future volatility on past returns, past volatilities and the stochastic noise, and thus provides a flexible volatility model without the need to manually select features. We develop a scalable inference and learning algorithm based on variational inference. In real data analysis, the DSVM outperforms several popular alternative volatility models. In addition, the predicted volatility of the DSVM provides a more reliable risk measure that can better reflex the risk in the financial market, reaching more quickly to a higher level when the market becomes more risky and to a lower level when the market is more stable, compared with the commonly used GARCH type model with a huge data set on the U.S. stock market.
Graph neural networks (GNNs) manifest pathologies including over-smoothing and limited discriminating power as a result of suboptimally expressive aggregating mechanisms. We herein present a unifying framework for stochastic aggregation (STAG) in GNNs, where noise is (adaptively) injected into the aggregation process from the neighborhood to form node embeddings. We provide theoretical arguments that STAG models, with little overhead, remedy both of the aforementioned problems. In addition to fixed-noise models, we also propose probabilistic versions of STAG models and a variational inference framework to learn the noise posterior. We conduct illustrative experiments clearly targeting oversmoothing and multiset aggregation limitations. Furthermore, STAG enhances general performance of GNNs demonstrated by competitive performance in common citation and molecule graph benchmark datasets.
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) refers to a class of methods for Bayesian inference based on interacting particle systems. In this paper, we consider the originally proposed deterministic dynamics as well as a stochastic variant, each of which represent one of the two main paradigms in Bayesian computational statistics: variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo. As it turns out, these are tightly linked through a correspondence between gradient flow structures and large-deviation principles rooted in statistical physics. To expose this relationship, we develop the cotangent space construction for the Stein geometry, prove its basic properties, and determine the large-deviation functional governing the many-particle limit for the empirical measure. Moreover, we identify the Stein-Fisher information (or kernelised Stein discrepancy) as its leading order contribution in the long-time and many-particle regime in the sense of $\Gamma$-convergence, shedding some light on the finite-particle properties of SVGD. Finally, we establish a comparison principle between the Stein-Fisher information and RKHS-norms that might be of independent interest.
We focus on automatic feature extraction for raw audio heartbeat sounds, aimed at anomaly detection applications in healthcare. We learn features with the help of an autoencoder composed by a 1D non-causal convolutional encoder and a WaveNet decoder trained with a modified objective based on variational inference, employing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). Moreover we model the latent distribution using a Gaussian chain graphical model to capture temporal correlations which characterize the encoded signals. After training the autoencoder on the reconstruction task in a unsupervised manner, we test the significance of the learned latent representations by training an SVM to predict anomalies. We evaluate the methods on a problem proposed by the PASCAL Classifying Heart Sounds Challenge and we compare with results in the literature.
Variational approximation, such as mean-field (MF) and tree-reweighted (TRW), provide a computationally efficient approximation of the log-partition function for a generic graphical model. TRW provably provides an upper bound, but the approximation ratio is generally not quantified. As the primary contribution of this work, we provide an approach to quantify the approximation ratio through the property of the underlying graph structure. Specifically, we argue that (a variant of) TRW produces an estimate that is within factor $\frac{1}{\sqrt{\kappa(G)}}$ of the true log-partition function for any discrete pairwise graphical model over graph $G$, where $\kappa(G) \in (0,1]$ captures how far $G$ is from tree structure with $\kappa(G) = 1$ for trees and $2/N$ for the complete graph over $N$ vertices. As a consequence, the approximation ratio is $1$ for trees, $\sqrt{(d+1)/2}$ for any graph with maximum average degree $d$, and $\stackrel{\beta\to\infty}{\approx} 1+1/(2\beta)$ for graphs with girth (shortest cycle) at least $\beta \log N$. In general, $\kappa(G)$ is the solution of a max-min problem associated with $G$ that can be evaluated in polynomial time for any graph. Using samples from the uniform distribution over the spanning trees of G, we provide a near linear-time variant that achieves an approximation ratio equal to the inverse of square-root of minimal (across edges) effective resistance of the graph. We connect our results to the graph partition-based approximation method and thus provide a unified perspective. Keywords: variational inference, log-partition function, spanning tree polytope, minimum effective resistance, min-max spanning tree, local inference
Approximate inference in Bayesian deep networks exhibits a dilemma of how to yield high fidelity posterior approximations while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability. We tackle this challenge by introducing a novel variational structured approximation inspired by the Bayesian interpretation of Dropout regularization. Concretely, we focus on the inflexibility of the factorized structure in Dropout posterior and then propose an improved method called Variational Structured Dropout (VSD). VSD employs an orthogonal transformation to learn a structured representation on the variational Gaussian noise with plausible complexity, and consequently induces statistical dependencies in the approximate posterior. Theoretically, VSD successfully addresses the pathologies of previous Variational Dropout methods and thus offers a standard Bayesian justification. We further show that VSD induces an adaptive regularization term with several desirable properties which contribute to better generalization. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on standard benchmarks to demonstrate the effectiveness of VSD over state-of-the-art variational methods on predictive accuracy, uncertainty estimation, and out-of-distribution detection.
Particle Filtering (PF) methods are an established class of procedures for performing inference in non-linear state-space models. Resampling is a key ingredient of PF, necessary to obtain low variance likelihood and states estimates. However, traditional resampling methods result in PF-based loss functions being non-differentiable with respect to model and PF parameters. In a variational inference context, resampling also yields high variance gradient estimates of the PF-based evidence lower bound. By leveraging optimal transport ideas, we introduce a principled differentiable particle filter and provide convergence results. We demonstrate this novel method on a variety of applications.
In the context of statistical learning, the Information Bottleneck method seeks a right balance between accuracy and generalization capability through a suitable tradeoff between compression complexity, measured by minimum description length, and distortion evaluated under logarithmic loss measure. In this paper, we study a variation of the problem, called scalable information bottleneck, in which the encoder outputs multiple descriptions of the observation with increasingly richer features. The model, which is of successive-refinement type with degraded side information streams at the decoders, is motivated by some application scenarios that require varying levels of accuracy depending on the allowed (or targeted) level of complexity. We establish an analytic characterization of the optimal relevance-complexity region for vector Gaussian sources. Then, we derive a variational inference type algorithm for general sources with unknown distribution; and show means of parametrizing it using neural networks. Finally, we provide experimental results on the MNIST dataset which illustrate that the proposed method generalizes better to unseen data during the training phase.
Natural-gradient descent (NGD) on structured parameter spaces (e.g., low-rank covariances) is computationally challenging due to difficult Fisher-matrix computations. We address this issue by using \emph{local-parameter coordinates} to obtain a flexible and efficient NGD method that works well for a wide-variety of structured parameterizations. We show four applications where our method (1) generalizes the exponential natural evolutionary strategy, (2) recovers existing Newton-like algorithms, (3) yields new structured second-order algorithms via matrix groups, and (4) gives new algorithms to learn covariances of Gaussian and Wishart-based distributions. We show results on a range of problems from deep learning, variational inference, and evolution strategies. Our work opens a new direction for scalable structured geometric methods.
We perform scalable approximate inference in continuous-depth Bayesian neural networks. In this model class, uncertainty about separate weights in each layer gives hidden units that follow a stochastic differential equation. We demonstrate gradient-based stochastic variational inference in this infinite-parameter setting, producing arbitrarily-flexible approximate posteriors. We also derive a novel gradient estimator that approaches zero variance as the approximate posterior over weights approaches the true posterior. This approach brings continuous-depth Bayesian neural nets to a competitive comparison against discrete-depth alternatives, while inheriting the memory-efficient training and tunable precision of Neural ODEs.