Learning theory has traditionally followed a model-centric approach, focusing on designing optimal algorithms for a fixed natural learning task (e.g., linear classification or regression). In this paper, we adopt a complementary data-centric perspective, whereby we fix a natural learning rule and focus on optimizing the training data. Specifically, we study the following question: given a learning rule $\mathcal{A}$ and a data selection budget $n$, how well can $\mathcal{A}$ perform when trained on at most $n$ data points selected from a population of $N$ points? We investigate when it is possible to select $n \ll N$ points and achieve performance comparable to training on the entire population. We address this question across a variety of empirical risk minimizers. Our results include optimal data-selection bounds for mean estimation, linear classification, and linear regression. Additionally, we establish two general results: a taxonomy of error rates in binary classification and in stochastic convex optimization. Finally, we propose several open questions and directions for future research.
In the era of large-scale model training, the extensive use of available datasets has resulted in significant computational inefficiencies. To tackle this issue, we explore methods for identifying informative subsets of training data that can achieve comparable or even superior model performance. We propose a technique based on influence functions to determine which training samples should be included in the training set. We conducted empirical evaluations of our method on binary classification tasks utilizing logistic regression models. Our approach demonstrates performance comparable to that of training on the entire dataset while using only 10% of the data. Furthermore, we found that our method achieved even higher accuracy when trained with just 60% of the data.
Depression is a complex mental disorder characterized by a diverse range of observable and measurable indicators that go beyond traditional subjective assessments. Recent research has increasingly focused on objective, passive, and continuous monitoring using wearable devices to gain more precise insights into the physiological and behavioral aspects of depression. However, most existing studies primarily distinguish between healthy and depressed individuals, adopting a binary classification that fails to capture the heterogeneity of depressive disorders. In this study, we leverage wearable devices to predict depression subtypes-specifically unipolar and bipolar depression-aiming to identify distinctive biomarkers that could enhance diagnostic precision and support personalized treatment strategies. To this end, we introduce the CALYPSO dataset, designed for non-invasive detection of depression subtypes and symptomatology through physiological and behavioral signals, including blood volume pulse, electrodermal activity, body temperature, and three-axis acceleration. Additionally, we establish a benchmark on the dataset using well-known features and standard machine learning methods. Preliminary results indicate that features related to physical activity, extracted from accelerometer data, are the most effective in distinguishing between unipolar and bipolar depression, achieving an accuracy of $96.77\%$. Temperature-based features also showed high discriminative power, reaching an accuracy of $93.55\%$. These findings highlight the potential of physiological and behavioral monitoring for improving the classification of depressive subtypes, paving the way for more tailored clinical interventions.
The purpose of research: Detection of cybersecurity incidents and analysis of decision support and assessment of the effectiveness of measures to counter information security threats based on modern generative models. The methods of research: Emulation of signal propagation data in MIMO systems, synthesis of adversarial examples, execution of adversarial attacks on machine learning models, fine tuning of large language models for detecting adversarial attacks, explainability of decisions on detecting cybersecurity incidents based on the prompts technique. Scientific novelty: A binary classification of data poisoning attacks was performed using large language models, and the possibility of using large language models for investigating cybersecurity incidents in the latest generation wireless networks was investigated. The result of research: Fine-tuning of large language models was performed on the prepared data of the emulated wireless network segment. Six large language models were compared for detecting adversarial attacks, and the capabilities of explaining decisions made by a large language model were investigated. The Gemma-7b model showed the best results according to the metrics Precision = 0.89, Recall = 0.89 and F1-Score = 0.89. Based on various explainability prompts, the Gemma-7b model notes inconsistencies in the compromised data under study, performs feature importance analysis and provides various recommendations for mitigating the consequences of adversarial attacks. Large language models integrated with binary classifiers of network threats have significant potential for practical application in the field of cybersecurity incident investigation, decision support and assessing the effectiveness of measures to counter information security threats.
Ultrasound imaging of the heart (echocardiography) is widely used to diagnose cardiac diseases. However, obtaining an echocardiogram requires an expert sonographer and a high-quality ultrasound imaging device, which are generally only available in hospitals. Recently, AI-based navigation models and algorithms have been used to aid novice sonographers in acquiring the standardized cardiac views necessary to visualize potential disease pathologies. These navigation systems typically rely on directional guidance to predict the necessary rotation of the ultrasound probe. This paper demonstrates a novel AI navigation system that builds on a decision model for identifying the inferior vena cava (IVC) of the heart. The decision model is trained offline using cardiac ultrasound videos and employs binary classification to determine whether the IVC is present in a given ultrasound video. The underlying model integrates a novel localization algorithm that leverages the learned feature representations to annotate the spatial location of the IVC in real-time. Our model demonstrates strong localization performance on traditional high-quality hospital ultrasound videos, as well as impressive zero-shot performance on lower-quality ultrasound videos from a more affordable Butterfly iQ handheld ultrasound machine. This capability facilitates the expansion of ultrasound diagnostics beyond hospital settings. Currently, the guidance system is undergoing clinical trials and is available on the Butterfly iQ app.
Bovine Viral Diarrhoea (BVD) has been the focus of a successful eradication programme in Ireland, with the herd-level prevalence declining from 11.3% in 2013 to just 0.2% in 2023. As the country moves toward BVD freedom, the development of predictive models for targeted surveillance becomes increasingly important to mitigate the risk of disease re-emergence. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a range of machine learning algorithms, including binary classification and anomaly detection techniques, for predicting BVD-positive herds using highly imbalanced herd-level data. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess model performance across varying sample sizes and class imbalance ratios, incorporating resampling, class weighting, and appropriate evaluation metrics (sensitivity, positive predictive value, F1-score and AUC values). Random forests and XGBoost models consistently outperformed other methods, with the random forest model achieving the highest sensitivity and AUC across scenarios, including real-world prediction of 2023 herd status, correctly identifying 219 of 250 positive herds while halving the number of herds that require compared to a blanket-testing strategy.
The evaluation of open-ended responses in serious games presents a unique challenge, as correctness is often subjective. Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being explored as evaluators in such contexts, yet their accuracy and consistency remain uncertain, particularly for smaller models intended for local execution. This study investigates the reliability of five small-scale LLMs when assessing player responses in \textit{En-join}, a game that simulates decision-making within energy communities. By leveraging traditional binary classification metrics (including accuracy, true positive rate, and true negative rate), we systematically compare these models across different evaluation scenarios. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each model, revealing trade-offs between sensitivity, specificity, and overall performance. We demonstrate that while some models excel at identifying correct responses, others struggle with false positives or inconsistent evaluations. The findings highlight the need for context-aware evaluation frameworks and careful model selection when deploying LLMs as evaluators. This work contributes to the broader discourse on the trustworthiness of AI-driven assessment tools, offering insights into how different LLM architectures handle subjective evaluation tasks.
Task arithmetic refers to editing the pre-trained model by adding a weighted sum of task vectors, each of which is the weight update from the pre-trained model to fine-tuned models for certain tasks. This approach recently gained attention as a computationally efficient inference method for model editing, e.g., multi-task learning, forgetting, and out-of-domain generalization capabilities. However, the theoretical understanding of why task vectors can execute various conceptual operations remains limited, due to the highly non-convexity of training Transformer-based models. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the first theoretical characterization of the generalization guarantees of task vector methods on nonlinear Transformers. We consider a conceptual learning setting, where each task is a binary classification problem based on a discriminative pattern. We theoretically prove the effectiveness of task addition in simultaneously learning a set of irrelevant or aligned tasks, as well as the success of task negation in unlearning one task from irrelevant or contradictory tasks. Moreover, we prove the proper selection of linear coefficients for task arithmetic to achieve guaranteed generalization to out-of-domain tasks. All of our theoretical results hold for both dense-weight parameters and their low-rank approximations. Although established in a conceptual setting, our theoretical findings were validated on a practical machine unlearning task using the large language model Phi-1.5 (1.3B).
We revisit online binary classification by shifting the focus from competing with the best-in-class binary loss to competing against relaxed benchmarks that capture smoothed notions of optimality. Instead of measuring regret relative to the exact minimal binary error -- a standard approach that leads to worst-case bounds tied to the Littlestone dimension -- we consider comparing with predictors that are robust to small input perturbations, perform well under Gaussian smoothing, or maintain a prescribed output margin. Previous examples of this were primarily limited to the hinge loss. Our algorithms achieve regret guarantees that depend only on the VC dimension and the complexity of the instance space (e.g., metric entropy), and notably, they incur only an $O(\log(1/\gamma))$ dependence on the generalized margin $\gamma$. This stands in contrast to most existing regret bounds, which typically exhibit a polynomial dependence on $1/\gamma$. We complement this with matching lower bounds. Our analysis connects recent ideas from adversarial robustness and smoothed online learning.
We compare the performance of human and artificially intelligent (AI) decision makers in simple binary classification tasks where the optimal decision rule is given by Bayes Rule. We reanalyze choices of human subjects gathered from laboratory experiments conducted by El-Gamal and Grether and Holt and Smith. We confirm that while overall, Bayes Rule represents the single best model for predicting human choices, subjects are heterogeneous and a significant share of them make suboptimal choices that reflect judgement biases described by Kahneman and Tversky that include the ``representativeness heuristic'' (excessive weight on the evidence from the sample relative to the prior) and ``conservatism'' (excessive weight on the prior relative to the sample). We compare the performance of AI subjects gathered from recent versions of large language models (LLMs) including several versions of ChatGPT. These general-purpose generative AI chatbots are not specifically trained to do well in narrow decision making tasks, but are trained instead as ``language predictors'' using a large corpus of textual data from the web. We show that ChatGPT is also subject to biases that result in suboptimal decisions. However we document a rapid evolution in the performance of ChatGPT from sub-human performance for early versions (ChatGPT 3.5) to superhuman and nearly perfect Bayesian classifications in the latest versions (ChatGPT 4o).
Recognizing that technical debt is a persistent and significant challenge requiring sophisticated management tools, TD-Suite offers a comprehensive software framework specifically engineered to automate the complex task of its classification within software projects. It leverages the advanced natural language understanding of state-of-the-art transformer models to analyze textual artifacts, such as developer discussions in issue reports, where subtle indicators of debt often lie hidden. TD-Suite provides a seamless end-to-end pipeline, managing everything from initial data ingestion and rigorous preprocessing to model training, thorough evaluation, and final inference. This allows it to support both straightforward binary classification (debt or no debt) and more valuable, identifying specific categories like code, design, or documentation debt, thus enabling more targeted management strategies. To ensure the generated models are robust and perform reliably on real-world, often imbalanced, datasets, TD-Suite incorporates critical training methodologies: k-fold cross-validation assesses generalization capability, early stopping mechanisms prevent overfitting to the training data, and class weighting strategies effectively address skewed data distributions. Beyond core functionality, and acknowledging the growing importance of sustainability, the framework integrates tracking and reporting of carbon emissions associated with the computationally intensive model training process. It also features a user-friendly Gradio web interface in a Docker container setup, simplifying model interaction, evaluation, and inference.
ML-supported decisions, such as ordering tests or determining preventive custody, often involve binary classification based on probabilistic forecasts. Evaluation frameworks for such forecasts typically consider whether to prioritize independent-decision metrics (e.g., Accuracy) or top-K metrics (e.g., Precision@K), and whether to focus on fixed thresholds or threshold-agnostic measures like AUC-ROC. We highlight that a consequentialist perspective, long advocated by decision theorists, should naturally favor evaluations that support independent decisions using a mixture of thresholds given their prevalence, such as Brier scores and Log loss. However, our empirical analysis reveals a strong preference for top-K metrics or fixed thresholds in evaluations at major conferences like ICML, FAccT, and CHIL. To address this gap, we use this decision-theoretic framework to map evaluation metrics to their optimal use cases, along with a Python package, briertools, to promote the broader adoption of Brier scores. In doing so, we also uncover new theoretical connections, including a reconciliation between the Brier Score and Decision Curve Analysis, which clarifies and responds to a longstanding critique by (Assel, et al. 2017) regarding the clinical utility of proper scoring rules.
Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is one of the major complications in diabetic patients' eyes, potentially leading to permanent blindness if not detected timely. This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of artificial intelligence (AI) in diagnosing DR. The method employed is the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) algorithm, applied to identify DR and its severity stages from fundus images using the public dataset "APTOS 2019 Blindness Detection." Literature was reviewed via ScienceDirect, ResearchGate, Google Scholar, and IEEE Xplore. Classification results using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) showed the best performance for the binary classes normal (0) and DR (1) with an accuracy of 99.55%, precision of 99.54%, recall of 99.54%, and F1-score of 99.54%. For the multiclass classification No_DR (0), Mild (1), Moderate (2), Severe (3), Proliferate_DR (4), the accuracy was 95.26%, precision 95.26%, recall 95.17%, and F1-score 95.23%. Evaluation using the confusion matrix yielded results of 99.68% for binary classification and 96.65% for multiclass. This study highlights the significant potential in enhancing the accuracy of DR diagnosis compared to traditional human analysis
We consider the problem of optimal decision referrals in human-automation teams performing binary classification tasks. The automation, which includes a pre-trained classifier, observes data for a batch of independent tasks, analyzes them, and may refer a subset of tasks to a human operator for fresh and final analysis. Our key modeling assumption is that human performance degrades with task load. We model the problem of choosing which tasks to refer as a stochastic optimization problem and show that, for a given task load, it is optimal to myopically refer tasks that yield the largest reduction in expected cost, conditional on the observed data. This provides a ranking scheme and a policy to determine the optimal set of tasks for referral. We evaluate this policy against a baseline through an experimental study with human participants. Using a radar screen simulator, participants made binary target classification decisions under time constraint. They were guided by a decision rule provided to them, but were still prone to errors under time pressure. An initial experiment estimated human performance model parameters, while a second experiment compared two referral policies. Results show statistically significant gains for the proposed optimal referral policy over a blind policy that determines referrals using the automation and human-performance models but not based on the observed data.
AI computation in healthcare faces significant challenges when clinical datasets are limited and heterogeneous. Integrating datasets from multiple sources and different equipments is critical for effective AI computation but is complicated by their diversity, complexity, and lack of representativeness, so we often need to join multiple datasets for analysis. The currently used method is fusion after normalization. But when using this method, it can introduce redundant information, decreasing the signal-to-noise ratio and reducing classification accuracy. To tackle this issue, we propose a feature-based fusion algorithm utilizing Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Our approach involves initially preprocessing and continuous estimation on the extracted features, followed by employing the gradient descent method to identify the optimal linear parameters that minimize the KL divergence between the feature distributions. Using our in-house datasets consisting of ECG signals collected from 2000 healthy and 2000 diseased individuals by different equipments and verifying our method by using the publicly available PTB-XL dataset which contains 21,837 ECG recordings from 18,885 patients. We employ a Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model to do the binary classification. The results demonstrate that the proposed fusion method significantly enhances feature-based classification accuracy for abnormal ECG cases in the merged datasets, compared to the normalization method. This data fusion strategy provides a new approach to process heterogeneous datasets for the optimal AI computation results.
We study the geometry of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) and Precision-Recall (PR) curves in binary classification problems. The key finding is that many of the most commonly used binary classification metrics are merely functions of the composition function $G := F_p \circ F_n^{-1}$, where $F_p(\cdot)$ and $F_n(\cdot)$ are the class-conditional cumulative distribution functions of the classifier scores in the positive and negative classes, respectively. This geometric perspective facilitates the selection of operating points, understanding the effect of decision thresholds, and comparison between classifiers. It also helps explain how the shapes and geometry of ROC/PR curves reflect classifier behavior, providing objective tools for building classifiers optimized for specific applications with context-specific constraints. We further explore the conditions for classifier dominance, present analytical and numerical examples demonstrating the effects of class separability and variance on ROC and PR geometries, and derive a link between the positive-to-negative class leakage function $G(\cdot)$ and the Kullback--Leibler divergence. The framework highlights practical considerations, such as model calibration, cost-sensitive optimization, and operating point selection under real-world capacity constraints, enabling more informed approaches to classifier deployment and decision-making.
This study investigates the application of diffusion models in medical image classification (DiffMIC), focusing on skin and oral lesions. Utilizing the datasets PAD-UFES-20 for skin cancer and P-NDB-UFES for oral cancer, the diffusion model demonstrated competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art deep learning models like Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Transformers. Specifically, for the PAD-UFES-20 dataset, the model achieved a balanced accuracy of 0.6457 for six-class classification and 0.8357 for binary classification (cancer vs. non-cancer). For the P-NDB-UFES dataset, it attained a balanced accuracy of 0.9050. These results suggest that diffusion models are viable models for classifying medical images of skin and oral lesions. In addition, we investigate the robustness of the model trained on PAD-UFES-20 for skin cancer but tested on the clinical images of the HIBA dataset.
The goal of extrinsic calibration is the alignment of sensor data to ensure an accurate representation of the surroundings and enable sensor fusion applications. From a safety perspective, sensor calibration is a key enabler of autonomous driving. In the current state of the art, a trend from target-based offline calibration towards targetless online calibration can be observed. However, online calibration is subject to strict real-time and resource constraints which are not met by state-of-the-art methods. This is mainly due to the high number of parameters to estimate, the reliance on geometric features, or the dependence on specific vehicle maneuvers. To meet these requirements and ensure the vehicle's safety at any time, we propose a miscalibration detection framework that shifts the focus from the direct regression of calibration parameters to a binary classification of the calibration state, i.e., calibrated or miscalibrated. Therefore, we propose a contrastive learning approach that compares embedded features in a latent space to classify the calibration state of two different sensor modalities. Moreover, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the feature embeddings and challenging calibration errors that highlight the performance of our approach. As a result, our method outperforms the current state-of-the-art in terms of detection performance, inference time, and resource demand. The code is open source and available on https://github.com/TUMFTM/MiscalibrationDetection.
This study investigates rare event detection on tabular data within binary classification. Standard techniques to handle class imbalance include SMOTE, which generates synthetic samples from the minority class. However, SMOTE is intrinsically designed for continuous input variables. In fact, despite SMOTE-NC-its default extension to handle mixed features (continuous and categorical variables)-very few works propose procedures to synthesize mixed features. On the other hand, many real-world classification tasks, such as in banking sector, deal with mixed features, which have a significant impact on predictive performances. To this purpose, we introduce MGS-GRF, an oversampling strategy designed for mixed features. This method uses a kernel density estimator with locally estimated full-rank covariances to generate continuous features, while categorical ones are drawn from the original samples through a generalized random forest. Empirically, contrary to SMOTE-NC, we show that MGS-GRF exhibits two important properties: (i) the coherence i.e. the ability to only generate combinations of categorical features that are already present in the original dataset and (ii) association, i.e. the ability to preserve the dependence between continuous and categorical features. We also evaluate the predictive performances of LightGBM classifiers trained on data sets, augmented with synthetic samples from various strategies. Our comparison is performed on simulated and public real-world data sets, as well as on a private data set from a leading financial institution. We observe that synthetic procedures that have the properties of coherence and association display better predictive performances in terms of various predictive metrics (PR and ROC AUC...), with MGS-GRF being the best one. Furthermore, our method exhibits promising results for the private banking application, with development pipeline being compliant with regulatory constraints.
The Additive Voronoi Tessellations (AddiVortes) model is a multivariate regression model that uses multiple Voronoi tessellations to partition the covariate space for an additive ensemble model. In this paper, the AddiVortes framework is extended to binary classification by incorporating a probit model with a latent variable formulation. Specifically, we utilise a data augmentation technique, where a latent variable is introduced and the binary response is determined via thresholding. In most cases, the AddiVortes model outperforms random forests, BART and other leading black-box regression models when compared using a range of metrics. A comprehensive analysis is conducted using AddiVortes to predict an individual's likelihood of being approved for a home mortgage, based on a range of covariates. This evaluation highlights the model's effectiveness in capturing complex relationships within the data and its potential for improving decision-making in mortgage approval processes.