The recurrent neural networks (RNN) with richly distributed internal states and flexible non-linear transition functions, have overtaken the dynamic Bayesian networks such as the hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the task of modeling highly structured sequential data. These data, such as from speech and handwriting, often contain complex relationships between the underlaying variational factors and the observed data. The standard RNN model has very limited randomness or variability in its structure, coming from the output conditional probability model. This paper will present different ways of using high level latent random variables in RNN to model the variability in the sequential data, and the training method of such RNN model under the VAE (Variational Autoencoder) principle. We will explore possible ways of using adversarial method to train a variational RNN model. Contrary to competing approaches, our approach has theoretical optimum in the model training and provides better model training stability. Our approach also improves the posterior approximation in the variational inference network by a separated adversarial training step. Numerical results simulated from TIMIT speech data show that reconstruction loss and evidence lower bound converge to the same level and adversarial training loss converges to 0.
Anomaly detection plays a pivotal role in numerous real-world scenarios, such as industrial automation and manufacturing intelligence. Recently, variational inference-based anomaly analysis has attracted researchers' and developers' attention. It aims to model the defect-free distribution so that anomalies can be classified as out-of-distribution samples. Nevertheless, there are two disturbing factors that need us to prioritize: (i) the simplistic prior latent distribution inducing limited expressive capability; (ii) the strong probability distance notion results in collapsed features. In this paper, we propose a novel Patch-wise Wasserstein AutoEncoder (P-WAE) architecture to alleviate those challenges. In particular, a patch-wise variational inference model coupled with solving the jigsaw puzzle is designed, which is a simple yet effective way to increase the expressiveness of the latent manifold. This makes using the model on high-dimensional practical data possible. In addition, we leverage a weaker measure, sliced-Wasserstein distance, to achieve the equilibrium between the reconstruction fidelity and generalized representations. Comprehensive experiments, conducted on the MVTec AD dataset, demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method.
We propose Pathfinder, a variational method for approximately sampling from differentiable log densities. Starting from a random initialization, Pathfinder locates normal approximations to the target density along a quasi-Newton optimization path, with local covariance estimated using the inverse Hessian estimates produced by the optimizer. Pathfinder returns draws from the approximation with the lowest estimated Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to the true posterior. We evaluate Pathfinder on a wide range of posterior distributions, demonstrating that its approximate draws are better than those from automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and comparable to those produced by short chains of dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), as measured by 1-Wasserstein distance. Compared to ADVI and short dynamic HMC runs, Pathfinder requires one to two orders of magnitude fewer log density and gradient evaluations, with greater reductions for more challenging posteriors. Importance resampling over multiple runs of Pathfinder improves the diversity of approximate draws, reducing 1-Wasserstein distance further and providing a measure of robustness to optimization failures on plateaus, saddle points, or in minor modes. The Monte Carlo KL divergence estimates are embarrassingly parallelizable in the core Pathfinder algorithm, as are multiple runs in the resampling version, further increasing Pathfinder's speed advantage with multiple cores.
We study the problem of estimating potential revenue or demand at business facilities and understanding its generating mechanism. This problem arises in different fields such as operation research or urban science, and more generally, it is crucial for businesses' planning and decision making. We develop a Bayesian spatial interaction model, henceforth BSIM, which provides probabilistic predictions about revenues generated by a particular business location provided their features and the potential customers' characteristics in a given region. BSIM explicitly accounts for the competition among the competitive facilities through a probability value determined by evaluating a store-specific Gaussian distribution at a given customer location. We propose a scalable variational inference framework that, while being significantly faster than competing Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference schemes, exhibits comparable performances in terms of parameters identification and uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the benefits of BSIM in various synthetic settings characterised by an increasing number of stores and customers. Finally, we construct a real-world, large spatial dataset for pub activities in London, UK, which includes over 1,500 pubs and 150,000 customer regions. We demonstrate how BSIM outperforms competing approaches on this large dataset in terms of prediction performances while providing results that are both interpretable and consistent with related indicators observed for the London region.
One of the greatest challenges in IC design is the repeated executions of computationally expensive SPICE simulations, particularly when highly complex chip testing/verification is involved. Recently, pseudo transient analysis (PTA) has shown to be one of the most promising continuation SPICE solver. However, the PTA efficiency is highly influenced by the inserted pseudo-parameters. In this work, we proposed BoA-PTA, a Bayesian optimization accelerated PTA that can substantially accelerate simulations and improve convergence performance without introducing extra errors. Furthermore, our method does not require any pre-computation data or offline training. The acceleration framework can either be implemented to speed up ongoing repeated simulations immediately or to improve new simulations of completely different circuits. BoA-PTA is equipped with cutting-edge machine learning techniques, e.g., deep learning, Gaussian process, Bayesian optimization, non-stationary monotonic transformation, and variational inference via parameterization. We assess BoA-PTA in 43 benchmark circuits against other SOTA SPICE solvers and demonstrate an average 2.3x (maximum 3.5x) speed-up over the original CEPTA.
Two of the main principles underlying the life cycle of an artificial intelligence (AI) module in communication networks are adaptation and monitoring. Adaptation refers to the need to adjust the operation of an AI module depending on the current conditions; while monitoring requires measures of the reliability of an AI module's decisions. Classical frequentist learning methods for the design of AI modules fall short on both counts of adaptation and monitoring, catering to one-off training and providing overconfident decisions. This paper proposes a solution to address both challenges by integrating meta-learning with Bayesian learning. As a specific use case, the problems of demodulation and equalization over a fading channel based on the availability of few pilots are studied. Meta-learning processes pilot information from multiple frames in order to extract useful shared properties of effective demodulators across frames. The resulting trained demodulators are demonstrated, via experiments, to offer better calibrated soft decisions, at the computational cost of running an ensemble of networks at run time. The capacity to quantify uncertainty in the model parameter space is further leveraged by extending Bayesian meta-learning to an active setting. In it, the designer can select in a sequential fashion channel conditions under which to generate data for meta-learning from a channel simulator. Bayesian active meta-learning is seen in experiments to significantly reduce the number of frames required to obtain efficient adaptation procedure for new frames.
We perform approximate inference in state-space models with nonlinear state transitions. Without parameterizing a generative model, we apply Bayesian update formulas using a local linearity approximation parameterized by neural networks. This comes accompanied by a maximum likelihood objective that requires no supervision via uncorrupt observations or ground truth latent states. The optimization backpropagates through a recursion similar to the classical Kalman filter and smoother. Additionally, using an approximate conditional independence, we can perform smoothing without having to parameterize a separate model. In scientific applications, domain knowledge can give a linear approximation of the latent transition maps, which we can easily incorporate into our model. Usage of such domain knowledge is reflected in excellent results (despite our model's simplicity) on the chaotic Lorenz system compared to fully supervised and variational inference methods. Finally, we show competitive results on an audio denoising experiment.
Particle-based approximate Bayesian inference approaches such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combine the flexibility and convergence guarantees of sampling methods with the computational benefits of variational inference. In practice, SVGD relies on the choice of an appropriate kernel function, which impacts its ability to model the target distribution -- a challenging problem with only heuristic solutions. We propose Neural Variational Gradient Descent (NVGD), which is based on parameterizing the witness function of the Stein discrepancy by a deep neural network whose parameters are learned in parallel to the inference, mitigating the necessity to make any kernel choices whatsoever. We empirically evaluate our method on popular synthetic inference problems, real-world Bayesian linear regression, and Bayesian neural network inference.
Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) are multi-layer, flexible extensions of Gaussian processes but their training remains challenging. Sparse approximations simplify the training but often require optimization over a large number of inducing inputs and their locations across layers. In this paper, we simplify the training by setting the locations to a fixed subset of data and sampling the inducing inputs from a variational distribution. This reduces the trainable parameters and computation cost without significant performance degradations, as demonstrated by our empirical results on regression problems. Our modifications simplify and stabilize DGP training while making it amenable to sampling schemes for setting the inducing inputs.
Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are Bayesian models that provide uncertainty estimates associated to the predictions made. They are also very flexible due to their non-parametric nature. Nevertheless, GPs suffer from poor scalability as the number of training instances N increases. More precisely, they have a cubic cost with respect to $N$. To overcome this problem, sparse GP approximations are often used, where a set of $M \ll N$ inducing points is introduced during training. The location of the inducing points is learned by considering them as parameters of an approximate posterior distribution $q$. Sparse GPs, combined with variational inference for inferring $q$, reduce the training cost of GPs to $\mathcal{O}(M^3)$. Critically, the inducing points determine the flexibility of the model and they are often located in regions of the input space where the latent function changes. A limitation is, however, that for some learning tasks a large number of inducing points may be required to obtain a good prediction performance. To address this limitation, we propose here to amortize the computation of the inducing points locations, as well as the parameters of the variational posterior approximation q. For this, we use a neural network that receives the observed data as an input and outputs the inducing points locations and the parameters of $q$. We evaluate our method in several experiments, showing that it performs similar or better than other state-of-the-art sparse variational GP approaches. However, with our method the number of inducing points is reduced drastically due to their dependency on the input data. This makes our method scale to larger datasets and have faster training and prediction times.
This paper proposes an extension of principal component analysis for Gaussian process (GP) posteriors, denoted by GP-PCA. Since GP-PCA estimates a low-dimensional space of GP posteriors, it can be used for meta-learning, which is a framework for improving the performance of target tasks by estimating a structure of a set of tasks. The issue is how to define a structure of a set of GPs with an infinite-dimensional parameter, such as coordinate system and a divergence. In this study, we reduce the infiniteness of GP to the finite-dimensional case under the information geometrical framework by considering a space of GP posteriors that have the same prior. In addition, we propose an approximation method of GP-PCA based on variational inference and demonstrate the effectiveness of GP-PCA as meta-learning through experiments.
Bayesian neural networks provide a direct and natural way to extend standard deep neural networks to support probabilistic deep learning through the use of probabilistic layers that, traditionally, encode weight (and bias) uncertainty. In particular, hybrid Bayesian neural networks utilize standard deterministic layers together with few probabilistic layers judicially positioned in the networks for uncertainty estimation. A major aspect and benefit of Bayesian inference is that priors, in principle, provide the means to encode prior knowledge for use in inference and prediction. However, it is difficult to specify priors on weights since the weights have no intuitive interpretation. Further, the relationships of priors on weights to the functions computed by networks are difficult to characterize. In contrast, functions are intuitive to interpret and are direct since they map inputs to outputs. Therefore, it is natural to specify priors on functions to encode prior knowledge, and to use them in inference and prediction based on functions. To support this, we propose hybrid Bayesian neural networks with functional probabilistic layers that encode function (and activation) uncertainty. We discuss their foundations in functional Bayesian inference, functional variational inference, sparse Gaussian processes, and sparse variational Gaussian processes. We further perform few proof-of-concept experiments using GPflus, a new library that provides Gaussian process layers and supports their use with deterministic Keras layers to form hybrid neural network and Gaussian process models.
Automating report generation for medical imaging promises to reduce workload and assist diagnosis in clinical practice. Recent work has shown that deep learning models can successfully caption natural images. However, learning from medical data is challenging due to the diversity and uncertainty inherent in the reports written by different radiologists with discrepant expertise and experience. To tackle these challenges, we propose variational topic inference for automatic report generation. Specifically, we introduce a set of topics as latent variables to guide sentence generation by aligning image and language modalities in a latent space. The topics are inferred in a conditional variational inference framework, with each topic governing the generation of a sentence in the report. Further, we adopt a visual attention module that enables the model to attend to different locations in the image and generate more informative descriptions. We conduct extensive experiments on two benchmarks, namely Indiana U. Chest X-rays and MIMIC-CXR. The results demonstrate that our proposed variational topic inference method can generate novel reports rather than mere copies of reports used in training, while still achieving comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods in terms of standard language generation criteria.
This paper introduces kernel continual learning, a simple but effective variant of continual learning that leverages the non-parametric nature of kernel methods to tackle catastrophic forgetting. We deploy an episodic memory unit that stores a subset of samples for each task to learn task-specific classifiers based on kernel ridge regression. This does not require memory replay and systematically avoids task interference in the classifiers. We further introduce variational random features to learn a data-driven kernel for each task. To do so, we formulate kernel continual learning as a variational inference problem, where a random Fourier basis is incorporated as the latent variable. The variational posterior distribution over the random Fourier basis is inferred from the coreset of each task. In this way, we are able to generate more informative kernels specific to each task, and, more importantly, the coreset size can be reduced to achieve more compact memory, resulting in more efficient continual learning based on episodic memory. Extensive evaluation on four benchmarks demonstrates the effectiveness and promise of kernels for continual learning.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are very popular to generate realistic images, but they often suffer from the training instability issues and the phenomenon of mode loss. In order to attain greater diversity in GAN synthesized data, it is critical to solving the problem of mode loss. Our work explores probabilistic approaches to GAN modelling that could allow us to tackle these issues. We present Prb-GANs, a new variation that uses dropout to create a distribution over the network parameters with the posterior learnt using variational inference. We describe theoretically and validate experimentally using simple and complex datasets the benefits of such an approach. We look into further improvements using the concept of uncertainty measures. Through a set of further modifications to the loss functions for each network of the GAN, we are able to get results that show the improvement of GAN performance. Our methods are extremely simple and require very little modification to existing GAN architecture.
Under the Bayesian brain hypothesis, behavioural variations can be attributed to different priors over generative model parameters. This provides a formal explanation for why individuals exhibit inconsistent behavioural preferences when confronted with similar choices. For example, greedy preferences are a consequence of confident (or precise) beliefs over certain outcomes. Here, we offer an alternative account of behavioural variability using R\'enyi divergences and their associated variational bounds. R\'enyi bounds are analogous to the variational free energy (or evidence lower bound) and can be derived under the same assumptions. Importantly, these bounds provide a formal way to establish behavioural differences through an $\alpha$ parameter, given fixed priors. This rests on changes in $\alpha$ that alter the bound (on a continuous scale), inducing different posterior estimates and consequent variations in behaviour. Thus, it looks as if individuals have different priors, and have reached different conclusions. More specifically, $\alpha \to 0^{+}$ optimisation leads to mass-covering variational estimates and increased variability in choice behaviour. Furthermore, $\alpha \to + \infty$ optimisation leads to mass-seeking variational posteriors and greedy preferences. We exemplify this formulation through simulations of the multi-armed bandit task. We note that these $\alpha$ parameterisations may be especially relevant, i.e., shape preferences, when the true posterior is not in the same family of distributions as the assumed (simpler) approximate density, which may be the case in many real-world scenarios. The ensuing departure from vanilla variational inference provides a potentially useful explanation for differences in behavioural preferences of biological (or artificial) agents under the assumption that the brain performs variational Bayesian inference.
The vast majority of uncertainty quantification methods for deep object detectors such as variational inference are based on the network output. Here, we study gradient-based epistemic uncertainty metrics for deep object detectors to obtain reliable confidence estimates. We show that they contain predictive information and that they capture information orthogonal to that of common, output-based uncertainty estimation methods like Monte-Carlo dropout and deep ensembles. To this end, we use meta classification and meta regression to produce confidence estimates using gradient metrics and other baselines for uncertainty quantification which are in principle applicable to any object detection architecture. Specifically, we employ false positive detection and prediction of localization quality to investigate uncertainty content of our metrics and compute the calibration errors of meta classifiers. Moreover, we use them as a post-processing filter mechanism to the object detection pipeline and compare object detection performance. Our results show that gradient-based uncertainty is itself on par with output-based methods across different detectors and datasets. More significantly, combined meta classifiers based on gradient and output-based metrics outperform the standalone models. Based on this result, we conclude that gradient uncertainty adds orthogonal information to output-based methods. This suggests that variational inference may be supplemented by gradient-based uncertainty to obtain improved confidence measures, contributing to down-stream applications of deep object detectors and improving their probabilistic reliability.
Given an unnormalized target distribution we want to obtain approximate samples from it and a tight lower bound on its (log) normalization constant log Z. Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) with Hamiltonian MCMC is a powerful method that can be used to do this. Its main drawback is that it uses non-differentiable transition kernels, which makes tuning its many parameters hard. We propose a framework to use an AIS-like procedure with Uncorrected Hamiltonian MCMC, called Uncorrected Hamiltonian Annealing. Our method leads to tight and differentiable lower bounds on log Z. We show empirically that our method yields better performances than other competing approaches, and that the ability to tune its parameters using reparameterization gradients may lead to large performance improvements.
Gaussian processes with derivative information are useful in many settings where derivative information is available, including numerous Bayesian optimization and regression tasks that arise in the natural sciences. Incorporating derivative observations, however, comes with a dominating $O(N^3D^3)$ computational cost when training on $N$ points in $D$ input dimensions. This is intractable for even moderately sized problems. While recent work has addressed this intractability in the low-$D$ setting, the high-$N$, high-$D$ setting is still unexplored and of great value, particularly as machine learning problems increasingly become high dimensional. In this paper, we introduce methods to achieve fully scalable Gaussian process regression with derivatives using variational inference. Analogous to the use of inducing values to sparsify the labels of a training set, we introduce the concept of inducing directional derivatives to sparsify the partial derivative information of a training set. This enables us to construct a variational posterior that incorporates derivative information but whose size depends neither on the full dataset size $N$ nor the full dimensionality $D$. We demonstrate the full scalability of our approach on a variety of tasks, ranging from a high dimensional stellarator fusion regression task to training graph convolutional neural networks on Pubmed using Bayesian optimization. Surprisingly, we find that our approach can improve regression performance even in settings where only label data is available.