Mixture models are widely used to fit complex and multimodal datasets. In this paper we study mixtures with high dimensional sparse latent parameter vectors and consider the problem of support recovery of those vectors. While parameter learning in mixture models is well-studied, the sparsity constraint remains relatively unexplored. Sparsity of parameter vectors is a natural constraint in variety of settings, and support recovery is a major step towards parameter estimation. We provide efficient algorithms for support recovery that have a logarithmic sample complexity dependence on the dimensionality of the latent space. Our algorithms are quite general, namely they are applicable to 1) mixtures of many different canonical distributions including Uniform, Poisson, Laplace, Gaussians, etc. 2) Mixtures of linear regressions and linear classifiers with Gaussian covariates under different assumptions on the unknown parameters. In most of these settings, our results are the first guarantees on the problem while in the rest, our results provide improvements on existing works.
This paper introduces a novel deep metric learning-based semi-supervised regression (DML-S2R) method for parameter estimation problems. The proposed DML-S2R method aims to mitigate the problems of insufficient amount of labeled samples without collecting any additional sample with a target value. To this end, it is made up of two main steps: i) pairwise similarity modeling with scarce labeled data; and ii) triplet-based metric learning with abundant unlabeled data. The first step aims to model pairwise sample similarities by using a small number of labeled samples. This is achieved by estimating the target value differences of labeled samples with a Siamese neural network (SNN). The second step aims to learn a triplet-based metric space (in which similar samples are close to each other and dissimilar samples are far apart from each other) when the number of labeled samples is insufficient. This is achieved by employing the SNN of the first step for triplet-based deep metric learning that exploits not only labeled samples but also unlabeled samples. For the end-to-end training of DML-S2R, we investigate an alternate learning strategy for the two steps. Due to this strategy, the encoded information in each step becomes a guidance for learning phase of the other step. The experimental results confirm the success of DML-S2R compared to the state-of-the-art semi-supervised regression methods. The code of the proposed method is publicly available at https://git.tu-berlin.de/rsim/DML-S2R.
Terahertz (THz) integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) is a promising interdisciplinary technology that realizes simultaneously transmitting Terabit-per-second (Tbps) and millimeter-level accurate environment or human activity sensing. However, both communication performance and sensing accuracy are influenced by the Doppler effects, which are especially severe in the THz band. Moreover, peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) degrades the THz power amplifier (PA) efficiency. In this paper, a discrete Fourier transform spread orthogonal time frequency space (DFT-s-OTFS) system with superimposed pilots is proposed to improve the robustness to Doppler effects and reduce PAPR for THz ISAC. Then, a two-phase sensing parameter estimation algorithm is developed to integrate sensing functionality into the DFT-s-OTFS waveform. Meanwhile, a low-complexity iterative channel estimation and data detection method with a conjugate gradient based equalizer is proposed to recover the data symbols of DFT-s-OTFS. The proposed DFT-s-OTFS waveform can improve the PA efficiency by 10% on average compared to OTFS. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed two-phase sensing estimation algorithm for THz DFT-s-OTFS systems is able to realize millimeter-level range estimation accuracy and decimeter-per-second-level velocity estimation accuracy. Moreover, the effectiveness of the iterative method for data detection aided by superimposed pilots in DFT-s-OTFS systems is validated by the simulations and the bit error rate performance is not degraded by the Doppler effects.
In the upcoming next-generation (5G-Advanced and 6G) wireless networks, sensing as a service will play a more important role than ever before. Recently, the concept of perceptive network is proposed as a paradigm shift that provides sensing and communication (S&C) services simultaneously. This type of technology is typically referred to as Integrated Sensing and Communications (ISAC). In this paper, we propose the concept of sensing quality of service (QoS) in terms of diverse applications. Specifically, the probability of detection, the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) for parameter estimation and the posterior CRB for moving target indication are employed to measure the sensing QoS for detection, localization, and tracking, respectively. Then, we establish a unified framework for ISAC resource allocation, where the fairness and the comprehensiveness optimization criteria are considered for the aforementioned sensing services. The proposed schemes can flexibly allocate the limited power and bandwidth resources according to both S&C QoSs. Finally, we study the performance trade-off between S&C services in different resource allocation schemes by numerical simulations.
We present a new method for analyzing stochastic epidemic models under minimal assumptions. The method, dubbed DSA, is based on a simple yet powerful observation, namely that population-level mean-field trajectories described by a system of PDE may also approximate individual-level times of infection and recovery. This idea gives rise to a certain non-Markovian agent-based model and provides an agent-level likelihood function for a random sample of infection and/or recovery times. Extensive numerical analyses on both synthetic and real epidemic data from the FMD in the United Kingdom and the COVID-19 in India show good accuracy and confirm method's versatility in likelihood-based parameter estimation. The accompanying software package gives prospective users a practical tool for modeling, analyzing and interpreting epidemic data with the help of the DSA approach.
The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large-scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The experiments and results of the two methods show a very good agreement for the solid mechanics simulation of the mercury spallation target. The proposed methods are used to calibrate the tensile cutoff threshold, mercury density, and mercury speed of sound during intense proton pulse experiments. Using strain experimental data from the mercury target sensors, the newly calibrated simulations achieve 7\% average improvement on the signal prediction accuracy and 8\% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some sensors experiencing up to 30\% improvement. The proposed calibrated simulations can significantly aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime and integrity, which reduces abrupt target failure and saves a tremendous amount of costs. However, an important conclusion from this work points out to a deficiency in the current constitutive model based on the equation of state in capturing the full physics of the spallation reaction. Given that some of the calibrated parameters that show a good agreement with the experimental data can be nonphysical mercury properties, we need a more advanced two-phase flow model to capture bubble dynamics and mercury cavitation.
Parameter estimation in empirical fields is usually undertaken using parametric models, and such models readily facilitate statistical inference. Unfortunately, they are unlikely to be sufficiently flexible to be able to adequately model real-world phenomena, and may yield biased estimates. Conversely, non-parametric approaches are flexible but do not readily facilitate statistical inference and may still exhibit residual bias. We explore the potential for Influence Functions (IFs) to (a) improve initial estimators without needing more data (b) increase model robustness and (c) facilitate statistical inference. We begin with a broad introduction to IFs, and propose a neural network method 'MultiNet', which seeks the diversity of an ensemble using a single architecture. We also introduce variants on the IF update step which we call 'MultiStep', and provide a comprehensive evaluation of different approaches. The improvements are found to be dataset dependent, indicating an interaction between the methods used and nature of the data generating process. Our experiments highlight the need for practitioners to check the consistency of their findings, potentially by undertaking multiple analyses with different combinations of estimators. We also show that it is possible to improve existing neural networks for `free', without needing more data, and without needing to retrain them.
We propose an alternative approach to neural network training using the monotone vector field, an idea inspired by the seminal work of Juditsky and Nemirovski [Juditsky & Nemirovsky, 2019] developed originally to solve parameter estimation problems for generalized linear models (GLM) by reducing the original non-convex problem to a convex problem of solving a monotone variational inequality (VI). Our approach leads to computationally efficient procedures that converge fast and offer guarantee in some special cases, such as training a single-layer neural network or fine-tuning the last layer of the pre-trained model. Our approach can be used for more efficient fine-tuning of a pre-trained model while freezing the bottom layers, an essential step for deploying many machine learning models such as large language models (LLM). We demonstrate its applicability in training fully-connected (FC) neural networks, graph neural networks (GNN), and convolutional neural networks (CNN) and show the competitive or better performance of our approach compared to stochastic gradient descent methods on both synthetic and real network data prediction tasks regarding various performance metrics.
We revisit the classical problem of deriving convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in finite mixture models. The Wasserstein distance has become a standard loss function for the analysis of parameter estimation in these models, due in part to its ability to circumvent label switching and to accurately characterize the behaviour of fitted mixture components with vanishing weights. However, the Wasserstein distance is only able to capture the worst-case convergence rate among the remaining fitted mixture components. We demonstrate that when the log-likelihood function is penalized to discourage vanishing mixing weights, stronger loss functions can be derived to resolve this shortcoming of the Wasserstein distance. These new loss functions accurately capture the heterogeneity in convergence rates of fitted mixture components, and we use them to sharpen existing pointwise and uniform convergence rates in various classes of mixture models. In particular, these results imply that a subset of the components of the penalized MLE typically converge significantly faster than could have been anticipated from past work. We further show that some of these conclusions extend to the traditional MLE. Our theoretical findings are supported by a simulation study to illustrate these improved convergence rates.
This paper presents the concept of "model-based neural network"(MNN), which is inspired by the classic artificial neural network (ANN) but for different usages. Instead of being used as a data-driven classifier, a MNN serves as a modeling tool with artfully defined inputs, outputs, and activation functions which have explicit physical meanings. Owing to the same layered form as an ANN, a MNN can also be optimized using the back-propagation (BP) algorithm. As an interesting application, the classic problem of line spectral estimation can be modeled by a MNN. We propose to first initialize the MNN by the fast Fourier transform (FFT) based spectral estimation, and then optimize the MNN by the BP algorithm, which automatically yields the maximum likelihood (ML) parameter estimation of the frequency spectrum. We also design a method of merging and pruning the hidden-layer nodes of the MNN, which can be used for model-order selection, i.e., to estimate the number of sinusoids. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are fundamental tools in statistical and data sciences. We study the moments of multivariate Gaussians and GMMs. The $d$-th moment of an $n$-dimensional random variable is a symmetric $d$-way tensor of size $n^d$, so working with moments naively is assumed to be prohibitively expensive for $d>2$ and larger values of $n$. In this work, we develop theory and numerical methods for \emph{implicit computations} with moment tensors of GMMs, reducing the computational and storage costs to $\mathcal{O}(n^2)$ and $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$, respectively, for general covariance matrices, and to $\mathcal{O}(n)$ and $\mathcal{O}(n)$, respectively, for diagonal ones. We derive concise analytic expressions for the moments in terms of symmetrized tensor products, relying on the correspondence between symmetric tensors and homogeneous polynomials, and combinatorial identities involving Bell polynomials. The primary application of this theory is to estimating GMM parameters (means and covariances) from a set of observations, when formulated as a moment-matching optimization problem. If there is a known and common covariance matrix, we also show it is possible to debias the data observations, in which case the problem of estimating the unknown means reduces to symmetric CP tensor decomposition. Numerical results validate and illustrate the numerical efficiency of our approaches. This work potentially opens the door to the competitiveness of the method of moments as compared to expectation maximization methods for parameter estimation of GMMs.
It is known that when the statistical models are singular, i.e., the Fisher information matrix at the true parameter is degenerate, the fixed step-size gradient descent algorithm takes polynomial number of steps in terms of the sample size $n$ to converge to a final statistical radius around the true parameter, which can be unsatisfactory for the application. To further improve that computational complexity, we consider the utilization of the second-order information in the design of optimization algorithms. Specifically, we study the normalized gradient descent (NormGD) algorithm for solving parameter estimation in parametric statistical models, which is a variant of gradient descent algorithm whose step size is scaled by the maximum eigenvalue of the Hessian matrix of the empirical loss function of statistical models. When the population loss function, i.e., the limit of the empirical loss function when $n$ goes to infinity, is homogeneous in all directions, we demonstrate that the NormGD iterates reach a final statistical radius around the true parameter after a logarithmic number of iterations in terms of $n$. Therefore, for fixed dimension $d$, the NormGD algorithm achieves the optimal overall computational complexity $\mathcal{O}(n)$ to reach the final statistical radius. This computational complexity is cheaper than that of the fixed step-size gradient descent algorithm, which is of the order $\mathcal{O}(n^{\tau})$ for some $\tau > 1$, to reach the same statistical radius. We illustrate our general theory under two statistical models: generalized linear models and mixture models, and experimental results support our prediction with general theory.
We consider the statistical analysis of heterogeneous data for prediction in situations where the observations include functions, typically time series. We extend the modeling with Mixtures-of-Experts (ME), as a framework of choice in modeling heterogeneity in data for prediction with vectorial observations, to this functional data analysis context. We first present a new family of ME models, named functional ME (FME) in which the predictors are potentially noisy observations, from entire functions. Furthermore, the data generating process of the predictor and the real response, is governed by a hidden discrete variable representing an unknown partition. Second, by imposing sparsity on derivatives of the underlying functional parameters via Lasso-like regularizations, we provide sparse and interpretable functional representations of the FME models called iFME. We develop dedicated expectation--maximization algorithms for Lasso-like (EM-Lasso) regularized maximum-likelihood parameter estimation strategies to fit the models. The proposed models and algorithms are studied in simulated scenarios and in applications to two real data sets, and the obtained results demonstrate their performance in accurately capturing complex nonlinear relationships and in clustering the heterogeneous regression data.
The dynamics of systems biological processes are usually modeled by a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with many unknown parameters that need to be inferred from noisy and sparse measurements. Here, we introduce systems-biology informed neural networks for parameter estimation by incorporating the system of ODEs into the neural networks. To complete the workflow of system identification, we also describe structural and practical identifiability analysis to analyze the identifiability of parameters. We use the ultridian endocrine model for glucose-insulin interaction as the example to demonstrate all these methods and their implementation.
We show how probabilistic numerics can be used to convert an initial value problem into a Gauss--Markov process parametrised by the dynamics of the initial value problem. Consequently, the often difficult problem of parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations is reduced to hyperparameter estimation in Gauss--Markov regression, which tends to be considerably easier. The method's relation and benefits in comparison to classical numerical integration and gradient matching approaches is elucidated. In particular, the method can, in contrast to gradient matching, handle partial observations, and has certain routes for escaping local optima not available to classical numerical integration. Experimental results demonstrate that the method is on par or moderately better than competing approaches.
Contextual bandit algorithms have been recently studied under the federated learning setting to satisfy the demand of keeping data decentralized and pushing the learning of bandit models to the client side. But limited by the required communication efficiency, existing solutions are restricted to linear models to exploit their closed-form solutions for parameter estimation. Such a restricted model choice greatly hampers these algorithms' practical utility. In this paper, we take the first step to addressing this challenge by studying generalized linear bandit models under the federated learning setting. We propose a communication-efficient solution framework that employs online regression for local update and offline regression for global update. We rigorously proved, though the setting is more general and challenging, our algorithm can attain sub-linear rate in both regret and communication cost, which is also validated by our extensive empirical evaluations.
Approximating probability distributions can be a challenging task, particularly when they are supported over regions of high geometrical complexity or exhibit multiple modes. Annealing can be used to facilitate this task which is often combined with constant a priori selected increments in inverse temperature. However, using constant increments limit the computational efficiency due to the inability to adapt to situations where smooth changes in the annealed density could be handled equally well with larger increments. We introduce AdaAnn, an adaptive annealing scheduler that automatically adjusts the temperature increments based on the expected change in the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two distributions with a sufficiently close annealing temperature. AdaAnn is easy to implement and can be integrated into existing sampling approaches such as normalizing flows for variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the computational efficiency of the AdaAnn scheduler for variational inference with normalizing flows on a number of examples, including density approximation and parameter estimation for dynamical systems.
Simulation models, in particular agent-based models, are gaining popularity in economics. The considerable flexibility they offer, as well as their capacity to reproduce a variety of empirically observed behaviours of complex systems, give them broad appeal, and the increasing availability of cheap computing power has made their use feasible. Yet a widespread adoption in real-world modelling and decision-making scenarios has been hindered by the difficulty of performing parameter estimation for such models. In general, simulation models lack a tractable likelihood function, which precludes a straightforward application of standard statistical inference techniques. Several recent works have sought to address this problem through the application of likelihood-free inference techniques, in which parameter estimates are determined by performing some form of comparison between the observed data and simulation output. However, these approaches are (a) founded on restrictive assumptions, and/or (b) typically require many hundreds of thousands of simulations. These qualities make them unsuitable for large-scale simulations in economics and can cast doubt on the validity of these inference methods in such scenarios. In this paper, we investigate the efficacy of two classes of black-box approximate Bayesian inference methods that have recently drawn significant attention within the probabilistic machine learning community: neural posterior estimation and neural density ratio estimation. We present benchmarking experiments in which we demonstrate that neural network based black-box methods provide state of the art parameter inference for economic simulation models, and crucially are compatible with generic multivariate time-series data. In addition, we suggest appropriate assessment criteria for future benchmarking of approximate Bayesian inference procedures for economic simulation models.
Camera calibration is a crucial technique which significantly influences the performance of many robotic systems. Robustness and high precision have always been the pursuit of diverse calibration methods. State-of-the-art calibration techniques based on classical Zhang's method, however, still suffer from environmental noise, radial lens distortion and sub-optimal parameter estimation. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a hybrid camera calibration framework which combines learning-based approaches with traditional methods to handle these bottlenecks. In particular, this framework leverages learning-based approaches to perform efficient distortion correction and robust chessboard corner coordinate encoding. For sub-pixel accuracy of corner detection, a specially-designed coordinate decoding algorithm with embed outlier rejection mechanism is proposed. To avoid sub-optimal estimation results, we improve the traditional parameter estimation by RANSAC algorithm and achieve stable results. Compared with two widely-used camera calibration toolboxes, experiment results on both real and synthetic datasets manifest the better robustness and higher precision of the proposed framework. The massive synthetic dataset is the basis of our framework's decent performance and will be publicly available along with the code at https://github.com/Easonyesheng/CCS.
Detailed dynamical systems models used in life sciences may include dozens or even hundreds of state variables. Models of large dimension are not only harder from the numerical perspective (e.g., for parameter estimation or simulation), but it is also becoming challenging to derive mechanistic insights from such models. Exact model reduction is a way to address this issue by finding a self-consistent lower-dimensional projection of the corresponding dynamical system. A recent algorithm CLUE allows one to construct an exact linear reduction of the smallest possible dimension such that the fixed variables of interest are preserved. However, CLUE is restricted to systems with polynomial dynamics. Since rational dynamics occurs frequently in the life sciences (e.g., Michaelis-Menten or Hill kinetics), it is desirable to extend CLUE to the models with rational dynamics. In this paper, we present an extension of CLUE to the case of rational dynamics and demonstrate its applicability on examples from literature. Our implementation is available in version 1.5 of CLUE at https://github.com/pogudingleb/CLUE.