Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in modern, real-world applications. Yet, estimating the unknown parameters of stochastic, nonlinear dynamical models remains a challenging problem. The majority of existing methods employ maximum likelihood or Bayesian estimation. However, these methods suffer from some limitations, most notably the substantial computational time for inference coupled with limited flexibility in application. In this work, we propose DeepBayes estimators that leverage the power of deep recurrent neural networks in learning an estimator. The method consists of first training a recurrent neural network to minimize the mean-squared estimation error over a set of synthetically generated data using models drawn from the model set of interest. The a priori trained estimator can then be used directly for inference by evaluating the network with the estimation data. The deep recurrent neural network architectures can be trained offline and ensure significant time savings during inference. We experiment with two popular recurrent neural networks -- long short term memory network (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU). We demonstrate the applicability of our proposed method on different example models and perform detailed comparisons with state-of-the-art approaches. We also provide a study on a real-world nonlinear benchmark problem. The experimental evaluations show that the proposed approach is asymptotically as good as the Bayes estimator.
The likelihood function plays a crucial role in statistical inference and experimental design. However, it is computationally intractable for several important classes of statistical models, including energy-based models and simulator-based models. Contrastive learning is an intuitive and computationally feasible alternative to likelihood-based learning. We here first provide an introduction to contrastive learning and then show how we can use it to derive methods for diverse statistical problems, namely parameter estimation for energy-based models, Bayesian inference for simulator-based models, as well as experimental design.
Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) are envisioned as a potentially transformative technology for future wireless communications. However, RISs' inability to process signals and the attendant increased channel dimension have brought new challenges to RIS-assisted systems, including significantly increased pilot overhead required for channel estimation. To address these problems, several prior contributions that enhance the hardware architecture of RISs or develop algorithms to exploit the channels' mathematical properties have been made, where the required pilot overhead is reduced to be proportional to the number of RIS elements. In this paper, we propose a dimension-independent channel state information (CSI) acquisition approach in which the required pilot overhead is independent of the number of RIS elements. Specifically, in contrast to traditional signal transmission methods, where signals from the base station (BS) and the users are transmitted in different time slots, we propose a novel method in which signals are transmitted from the BS and the user simultaneously during CSI acquisition. With this method, an electromagnetic interference random field (IRF) will be induced on the RIS, and we propose the structure of sensing RIS to capture its features. Moreover, we develop three algorithms for parameter estimation in this system, in which one of the proposed vM-EM algorithm is analyzed with the fixed-point perturbation method to obtain an asymptotic achievable bound. In addition, we also derive the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound (CRLB) and an asymptotic expression for characterizing the best possible performance of the proposed algorithms. Simulation results verify that our proposed signal transmission method and the corresponding algorithms can achieve dimension-independent CSI acquisition for beamforming.
This paper introduces one new multivariate volatility model that can accommodate an appropriately defined network structure based on low-frequency and high-frequency data. The model reduces the number of unknown parameters and the computational complexity substantially. The model parameterization and iterative multistep-ahead forecasts are discussed and the targeting reparameterization is also presented. Quasi-likelihood functions for parameter estimation are proposed and their asymptotic properties are established. A series of simulation experiments are carried out to assess the performance of the estimation in finite samples. An empirical example is demonstrated that the proposed model outperforms the network GARCH model, with the gains being particularly significant at short forecast horizons.
A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.
We describe a search-free resizing framework that can further improve the rate-distortion tradeoff of recent learned image compression models. Our approach is simple: compose a pair of differentiable downsampling/upsampling layers that sandwich a neural compression model. To determine resize factors for different inputs, we utilize another neural network jointly trained with the compression model, with the end goal of minimizing the rate-distortion objective. Our results suggest that "compression friendly" downsampled representations can be quickly determined during encoding by using an auxiliary network and differentiable image warping. By conducting extensive experimental tests on existing deep image compression models, we show results that our new resizing parameter estimation framework can provide Bj{\o}ntegaard-Delta rate (BD-rate) improvement of about 10% against leading perceptual quality engines. We also carried out a subjective quality study, the results of which show that our new approach yields favorable compressed images. To facilitate reproducible research in this direction, the implementation used in this paper is being made freely available online at: https://github.com/treammm/ResizeCompression.
Two types of states are widely used in quantum mechanics, namely (deterministic-coefficient) pure states and statistical mixtures. A density operator can be associated with each of them. We here address a third type of states, that we previously introduced in a more restricted framework. These states generalize pure ones by replacing each of their deterministic ket coefficients by a random variable. We therefore call them Random-Coefficient Pure States, or RCPS. We analyze their properties and their relationships with both types of usual states. We show that RCPS contain much richer information than the density operator and mean of observables that we associate with them. This occurs because the latter operator only exploits the second-order statistics of the random state coefficients, whereas their higher-order statistics contain additional information. That information can be accessed in practice with the multiple-preparation procedure that we propose for RCPS, by using second-order and higher-order statistics of associated random probabilities of measurement outcomes. Exploiting these higher-order statistics opens the way to a very general approach for performing advanced quantum information processing tasks. We illustrate the relevance of this approach with a generic example, dealing with the estimation of parameters of a quantum process and thus related to quantum process tomography. This parameter estimation is performed in the non-blind (i.e. supervised) or blind (i.e. unsupervised) mode. We show that this problem cannot be solved by using only the density operator \rho of an RCPS and the associated mean value Tr(\rho A) of the operator A that corresponds to the considered physical quantity. We succeed in solving this problem by exploiting a fourth-order statistical parameter of state coefficients, in addition to second-order statistics. Numerical tests validate this result.
This note presents a new method for set-based joint state and parameter estimation of discrete-time systems using constrained zonotopes. This is done by extending previous set-based state estimation methods to include parameter identification in a unified framework. Unlike in interval-based methods, the existing dependencies between states and model parameters are maintained from one time step to the next, thus providing a more accurate estimation scheme. In addition, the enclosure of states and parameters is refined using measurements through generalized intersections, which are properly captured by constrained zonotopes. The advantages of the new approach are highlighted in two numerical examples.
Micro-Doppler signature is a potent feature that has been used for target identification and micro-motion parameter estimation. The extraction of high frequency micro-Doppler signature from frequency modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar along with the target range and velocity is the problem considered in this article. The severe aliasing of the high micro-Doppler frequency spread is circumvented by the fast time processing in the proposed method. The use of range-Doppler (RD) filtering and empirical mode decomposition (EMD) enables effective out-of-band and in-band noise suppression. Simulation studies and experimental results present the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
To maximize the economic benefits of geothermal energy production, it is essential to optimize geothermal reservoir management strategies, in which geologic uncertainty should be considered. In this work, we propose a closed-loop optimization framework, based on deep learning surrogates, for the well control optimization of geothermal reservoirs. In this framework, we construct a hybrid convolution-recurrent neural network surrogate, which combines the convolution neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent network. The convolution structure can extract spatial information of geologic parameter fields and the recurrent structure can approximate sequence-to-sequence mapping. The trained model can predict time-varying production responses (rate, temperature, etc.) for cases with different permeability fields and well control sequences. In the closed-loop optimization framework, production optimization based on the differential evolution (DE) algorithm, and data assimilation based on the iterative ensemble smoother (IES), are performed alternately to achieve real-time well control optimization and geologic parameter estimation as the production proceeds. In addition, the averaged objective function over the ensemble of geologic parameter estimations is adopted to consider geologic uncertainty in the optimization process. Several geothermal reservoir development cases are designed to test the performance of the proposed production optimization framework. The results show that the proposed framework can achieve efficient and effective real-time optimization and data assimilation in the geothermal reservoir production process.
This paper presents a method of constructing Parseval frames from any collection of complex envelopes. The resulting Enveloped Sinusoid Parseval (ESP) frames can represent a wide variety of signal types as specified by their physical morphology. Since the ESP frame retains its Parseval property even when generated from a variety of envelopes, it is compatible with large scale and iterative optimization algorithms. ESP frames are constructed by applying time-shifted enveloping functions to the discrete Fourier Transform basis, and in this way are similar to the short-time Fourier Transform. This work provides examples of ESP frame generation for both synthetic and experimentally measured signals. Furthermore, the frame's compatibility with distributed sparse optimization frameworks is demonstrated, and efficient implementation details are provided. Numerical experiments on acoustics data reveal that the flexibility of this method allows it to be simultaneously competitive with the STFT in time-frequency processing and also with Prony's Method for time-constant parameter estimation, surpassing the shortcomings of each individual technique.
This paper takes a different approach for the distributed linear parameter estimation over a multi-agent network. The parameter vector is considered to be stochastic with a Gaussian distribution. The sensor measurements at each agent are linear and corrupted with additive white Gaussian noise. Under such settings, this paper presents a novel distributed estimation algorithm that fuses the the concepts of consensus and innovations by incorporating the consensus terms (of neighboring estimates) into the innovation terms. Under the assumption of distributed parameter observability, introduced in this paper, we design the optimal gain matrices such that the distributed estimates are consistent and achieves fast convergence.
Standard noise radars, as well as noise-type radars such as quantum two-mode squeezing radar, are characterized by a covariance matrix with a very specific structure. This matrix has four independent parameters: the amplitude of the received signal, the amplitude of the internal signal used for matched filtering, the correlation between the two signals, and the relative phase between them. In this paper, we derive estimators for these four parameters using two techniques. The first is based on minimizing the Frobenius norm between the structured covariance matrix and the sample covariance matrix; the second is maximum likelihood parameter estimation. The two techniques yield the same estimators. We then give probability density functions (PDFs) for all four estimators. Because some of these PDFs are quite complicated, we also provide approximate PDFs. Finally, we apply our results to the problem of target detection and derive expressions for the receiver operating characteristic curves of two different noise radar detectors.
Rigid Point Cloud Registration (PCR) algorithms aim to estimate the 6-DOF relative motion between two point clouds, which is important in various fields, including autonomous driving. Recent years have seen a significant improvement in global PCR algorithms, i.e. algorithms that can handle a large relative motion. This has been demonstrated in various scenarios, including indoor scenes, but has only been minimally tested in the Automotive setting, where point clouds are produced by vehicle-mounted LiDAR sensors. In this work, we aim to answer questions that are important for automotive applications, including: which of the new algorithms is the most accurate, and which is fastest? How transferable are deep-learning approaches, e.g. what happens when you train a network with data from Boston, and run it in a vehicle in Singapore? How small can the overlap between point clouds be before the algorithms start to deteriorate? To what extent are the algorithms rotation invariant? Our results are at times surprising. When comparing robust parameter estimation methods for registration, we find that the fastest and most accurate is not one of the newest approaches. Instead, it is a modern variant of the well known RANSAC technique. We also suggest a new outlier filtering method, Grid-Prioritized Filtering (GPF), to further improve it. An additional contribution of this work is an algorithm for selecting challenging sets of frame-pairs from automotive LiDAR datasets. This enables meaningful benchmarking in the Automotive LiDAR setting, and can also improve training for learning algorithms.
The intelligent reflecting surface (IRS) alters the behavior of wireless media and, consequently, has potential to improve the performance and reliability of wireless systems such as communications and radar remote sensing. Recently, integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) has been widely studied as a means to efficiently utilize spectrum and thereby save cost and power. This article investigates the role of IRS in the future ISAC paradigms. While there is a rich heritage of recent research into IRS-assisted communications, the IRS-assisted radars and ISAC remain relatively unexamined. We discuss the putative advantages of IRS deployment, such as coverage extension, interference suppression, and enhanced parameter estimation, for both communications and radar. We introduce possible IRS-assisted ISAC scenarios with common and dedicated surfaces. The article provides an overview of related signal processing techniques and the design challenges, such as wireless channel acquisition, waveform design, and security.
The accuracy of the estimated stellar atmospheric parameter decreases evidently with the decreasing of spectral signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and there are a huge amount of this kind observations, especially in case of SNR$<$30. Therefore, it is helpful to improve the parameter estimation performance for these spectra and this work studied the ($T_\texttt{eff}, \log~g$, [Fe/H]) estimation problem for LAMOST DR8 low-resolution spectra with 20$\leq$SNR$<$30. We proposed a data-driven method based on machine learning techniques. Firstly, this scheme detected stellar atmospheric parameter-sensitive features from spectra by the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), rejected ineffective data components and irrelevant data. Secondly, a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) method was used to estimate stellar atmospheric parameters from the LASSO features. Finally, the performance of the LASSO-MLP was evaluated by computing and analyzing the consistency between its estimation and the reference from the APOGEE (Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment) high-resolution spectra. Experiments show that the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) of $T_\texttt{eff}, \log~g$, [Fe/H] are reduced from the LASP (137.6 K, 0.195 dex, 0.091 dex) to LASSO-MLP (84.32 K, 0.137 dex, 0.063 dex), which indicate evident improvements on stellar atmospheric parameter estimation. In addition, this work estimated the stellar atmospheric parameters for 1,162,760 low-resolution spectra with 20$\leq$SNR$<$30 from LAMOST DR8 using LASSO-MLP, and released the estimation catalog, learned model, experimental code, trained model, training data and test data for scientific exploration and algorithm study.
This paper presents a method for jointly estimating the state, input, and parameters of linear systems in an online fashion. The method is specially designed for measurements that are corrupted with non-Gaussian noise or outliers, which are commonly found in engineering applications. In particular, it combines recursive, alternating, and iteratively-reweighted least squares into a single, one-step algorithm, which solves the estimation problem online and benefits from the robustness of least-deviation regression methods. The convergence of the iterative method is formally guaranteed. Numerical experiments show the good performance of the estimation algorithm in presence of outliers and in comparison to state-of-the-art methods.
Dynamical systems modeling, particularly via systems of ordinary differential equations, has been used to effectively capture the temporal behavior of different biochemical components in signal transduction networks. Despite the recent advances in experimental measurements, including sensor development and '-omics' studies that have helped populate protein-protein interaction networks in great detail, modeling in systems biology lacks systematic methods to estimate kinetic parameters and quantify associated uncertainties. This is because of multiple reasons, including sparse and noisy experimental measurements, lack of detailed molecular mechanisms underlying the reactions, and missing biochemical interactions. Additionally, the inherent nonlinearities with respect to the states and parameters associated with the system of differential equations further compound the challenges of parameter estimation. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework for Bayesian parameter estimation and complete quantification of the effects of uncertainties in the data and models. We apply these methods to a series of signaling models of increasing mathematical complexity. Systematic analysis of these dynamical systems showed that parameter estimation depends on data sparsity, noise level, and model structure, including the existence of multiple steady states. These results highlight how focused uncertainty quantification can enrich systems biology modeling and enable additional quantitative analyses for parameter estimation.
This paper presents a technique for finding the surface normal of an object from a set of images obtained under different lighting positions. The method presented is based on the principles of Photometric Stereo (PS) combined with Optimum Experimental Design (OED) and Parameter Estimation (PE). Unclear by the approach of photometric stereo, and many models based thereon, is how to position the light sources. So far, this is done by using heuristic approaches this leads to suboptimal and non-data driven positioning of the light sources. But what if the optimal positions of the light sources are calculated for photometric stereo? To this end, in this contribution, the effect of positioning the light sources on the quality of the normal vector for PS is evaluated. Furthermore, a new approach in this direction is derived and formulated. For the calculation of the surface normal of a Lambertian surface, the approach based on calibrated photometric stereo; for the estimation the optimal position of the light sources the approach is premised on parameter estimation and optimum experimental design. The approach is tested using synthetic and real-data. Based on results it can be seen that the surface normal estimated with the new method is more detailed than with conventional methods.
This work proposes an online adaptive identification method for multi-input multi-output (MIMO) switched affine systems with guaranteed parameter convergence. A family of online parameter estimators is used that is equipped with a dual-layer low pass filter architecture to facilitate parameter learning and identification of each subsystem. The filters capture information about the unknown parameters in the form of a prediction error which is used in the parameter estimation algorithm. A salient feature of the proposed method that distinguishes it from most previous results is the use of a memory bank that stores filter values and promotes parameter learning during both active and inactive phases of a subsystem. Specifically, the learnt experience from the previous active phase of a subsystem is retained in the memory and leveraged for parameter learning in its subsequent active and inactive phases. Further, a new notion of intermittent initial excitation (IIE) is introduced that extends the previously established initial excitation (IE) condition to the switched system framework. IIE is shown to be sufficient to ensure exponential convergence of the switched system parameters.