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arXiv:2505.02362공식 코드 · Papers with Code

Advancing Email Spam Detection: Leveraging Zero-Shot Learning and Large Language Models

Email spam detection is a critical task in modern communication systems, essential for maintaining productivity, security, and user experience. Traditional machine learning and deep learning approaches, while effective in static settings, face significant limitations in adapting to evolving spam tactics, addressing class imbalance, and managing data scarcity. These challenges necessitate innovative approaches that reduce dependency on extensive labeled datasets and frequent retraining. This study investigates the effectiveness of Zero-Shot Learning using FLAN-T5, combined with advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques such as BERT for email spam detection. By employing BERT to preprocess and extract critical information from email content, and FLAN-T5 to classify emails in a Zero-Shot framework, the proposed approach aims to address the limitations of traditional spam detection systems. The integration of FLAN-T5 and BERT enables robust spam detection without relying on extensive labeled datasets or frequent retraining, making it highly adaptable to unseen spam patterns and adversarial environments. This research highlights the potential of leveraging zero-shot learning and NLPs for scalable and efficient spam detection, providing insights into their capability to address the dynamic and challenging nature of spam detection tasks.

arXiv:2504.15077

Think2SQL: Reinforce LLM Reasoning Capabilities for Text2SQL

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in transforming natural language questions about relational databases into SQL queries. Despite recent improvements, small LLMs struggle to handle questions involving multiple tables and complex SQL patterns under a Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) setting. Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) partially compensates for the knowledge deficits in pretrained models but falls short while dealing with queries involving multi-hop reasoning. To bridge this gap, different LLM training strategies to reinforce reasoning capabilities have been proposed, ranging from leveraging a thinking process within ZSL, including reasoning traces in SFT, or adopt Reinforcement Learning (RL) strategies. However, the influence of reasoning on Text2SQL performance is still largely unexplored. This paper investigates to what extent LLM reasoning capabilities influence their Text2SQL performance on four benchmark datasets. To this end, it considers the following LLM settings: (1) ZSL, including general-purpose reasoning or not; (2) SFT, with and without task-specific reasoning traces; (3) RL, exploring the use of different rewarding functions, both the established EXecution accuracy (EX) and a mix with fine-grained ones that also account the precision, recall, and cardinality of partially correct answers; (4) SFT+RL, i.e, a two-stage approach that combines SFT and RL. The results show that general-purpose reasoning under ZSL proves to be ineffective in tackling complex Text2SQL cases. Small LLMs benefit from SFT with reasoning much more than larger ones. RL is generally beneficial across all tested models and datasets. The use of the fine-grained metrics turns out to be the most effective RL strategy. Thanks to RL and the novel text2SQL rewards, the 7B Qwen-Coder-2.5 model performs on par with 400+ Billion ones (including gpt-4o) on the Bird dataset.

arXiv:2504.14715

Med-2D SegNet: A Light Weight Deep Neural Network for Medical 2D Image Segmentation

Accurate and efficient medical image segmentation is crucial for advancing clinical diagnostics and surgical planning, yet remains a complex challenge due to the variability in anatomical structures and the demand for low-complexity models. In this paper, we introduced Med-2D SegNet, a novel and highly efficient segmentation architecture that delivers outstanding accuracy while maintaining a minimal computational footprint. Med-2D SegNet achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple benchmark datasets, including KVASIR-SEG, PH2, EndoVis, and GLAS, with an average Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) of 89.77% across 20 diverse datasets. Central to its success is the compact Med Block, a specialized encoder design that incorporates dimension expansion and parameter reduction, enabling precise feature extraction while keeping model parameters to a low count of just 2.07 million. Med-2D SegNet excels in cross-dataset generalization, particularly in polyp segmentation, where it was trained on KVASIR-SEG and showed strong performance on unseen datasets, demonstrating its robustness in zero-shot learning scenarios, even though we acknowledge that further improvements are possible. With top-tier performance in both binary and multi-class segmentation, Med-2D SegNet redefines the balance between accuracy and efficiency, setting a new benchmark for medical image analysis. This work paves the way for developing accessible, high-performance diagnostic tools suitable for clinical environments and resource-constrained settings, making it a step forward in the democratization of advanced medical technology.

arXiv:2504.07416

RadZero: Similarity-Based Cross-Attention for Explainable Vision-Language Alignment in Radiology with Zero-Shot Multi-Task Capability

Recent advancements in multi-modal models have significantly improved vision-language alignment in radiology. However, existing approaches struggle to effectively utilize complex radiology reports for learning, rely on low-resolution images, and offer limited interpretability in attention mechanisms. To address these challenges, we introduce RadZero, a novel similarity-based cross-attention framework for vision-language alignment in radiology with zero-shot multi-task capability. RadZero leverages large language models to extract minimal semantic sentences from radiology reports and employs a multi-positive contrastive learning strategy to effectively capture relationships between images and multiple relevant textual descriptions. It also utilizes a pre-trained vision encoder with additional trainable Transformer layers, allowing efficient high-resolution image processing. By computing similarity between text embeddings and local image patch features, RadZero enables zero-shot inference with similarity probability for classification and pixel-level cross-modal similarity maps for grounding and segmentation. Experimental results on public chest radiograph benchmarks show that RadZero outperforms state-of-the-art methods in zero-shot classification, grounding, and segmentation. Furthermore, cross-modal similarity map analysis highlights its potential for improving explainability in vision-language alignment. Additionally, qualitative evaluation demonstrates RadZero's capability for open-vocabulary semantic segmentation, further validating its effectiveness in medical imaging.

arXiv:2504.03979

Structured Extraction of Process Structure Properties Relationships in Materials Science

With the advent of large language models (LLMs), the vast unstructured text within millions of academic papers is increasingly accessible for materials discovery, although significant challenges remain. While LLMs offer promising few- and zero-shot learning capabilities, particularly valuable in the materials domain where expert annotations are scarce, general-purpose LLMs often fail to address key materials-specific queries without further adaptation. To bridge this gap, fine-tuning LLMs on human-labeled data is essential for effective structured knowledge extraction. In this study, we introduce a novel annotation schema designed to extract generic process-structure-properties relationships from scientific literature. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using a dataset of 128 abstracts, with annotations drawn from two distinct domains: high-temperature materials (Domain I) and uncertainty quantification in simulating materials microstructure (Domain II). Initially, we developed a conditional random field (CRF) model based on MatBERT, a domain-specific BERT variant, and evaluated its performance on Domain I. Subsequently, we compared this model with a fine-tuned LLM (GPT-4o from OpenAI) under identical conditions. Our results indicate that fine-tuning LLMs can significantly improve entity extraction performance over the BERT-CRF baseline on Domain I. However, when additional examples from Domain II were incorporated, the performance of the BERT-CRF model became comparable to that of the GPT-4o model. These findings underscore the potential of our schema for structured knowledge extraction and highlight the complementary strengths of both modeling approaches.

arXiv:2504.03159공식 코드 · Papers with Code

Beyond the Next Token: Towards Prompt-Robust Zero-Shot Classification via Efficient Multi-Token Prediction

Zero-shot text classification typically relies on prompt engineering, but the inherent prompt brittleness of large language models undermines its reliability. Minor changes in prompt can cause significant discrepancies in model performance. We attribute this prompt brittleness largely to the narrow focus on nexttoken probabilities in existing methods. To address this, we propose Placeholding Parallel Prediction (P3), a novel approach that predicts token probabilities across multiple positions and simulates comprehensive sampling of generation paths in a single run of a language model. Experiments show improved accuracy and up to 98% reduction in the standard deviation across prompts, boosting robustness. Even without a prompt, P3 maintains comparable performance, reducing the need for prompt engineering.

arXiv:2504.02328

Refining CLIP's Spatial Awareness: A Visual-Centric Perspective

Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) excels in global alignment with language but exhibits limited sensitivity to spatial information, leading to strong performance in zero-shot classification tasks but underperformance in tasks requiring precise spatial understanding. Recent approaches have introduced Region-Language Alignment (RLA) to enhance CLIP's performance in dense multimodal tasks by aligning regional visual representations with corresponding text inputs. However, we find that CLIP ViTs fine-tuned with RLA suffer from notable loss in spatial awareness, which is crucial for dense prediction tasks. To address this, we propose the Spatial Correlation Distillation (SCD) framework, which preserves CLIP's inherent spatial structure and mitigates the above degradation. To further enhance spatial correlations, we introduce a lightweight Refiner that extracts refined correlations directly from CLIP before feeding them into SCD, based on an intriguing finding that CLIP naturally captures high-quality dense features. Together, these components form a robust distillation framework that enables CLIP ViTs to integrate both visual-language and visual-centric improvements, achieving state-of-the-art results across various open-vocabulary dense prediction benchmarks.

arXiv:2504.01373

UniFault: A Fault Diagnosis Foundation Model from Bearing Data

Machine fault diagnosis (FD) is a critical task for predictive maintenance, enabling early fault detection and preventing unexpected failures. Despite its importance, existing FD models are operation-specific with limited generalization across diverse datasets. Foundation models (FM) have demonstrated remarkable potential in both visual and language domains, achieving impressive generalization capabilities even with minimal data through few-shot or zero-shot learning. However, translating these advances to FD presents unique hurdles. Unlike the large-scale, cohesive datasets available for images and text, FD datasets are typically smaller and more heterogeneous, with significant variations in sampling frequencies and the number of channels across different systems and applications. This heterogeneity complicates the design of a universal architecture capable of effectively processing such diverse data while maintaining robust feature extraction and learning capabilities. In this paper, we introduce UniFault, a foundation model for fault diagnosis that systematically addresses these issues. Specifically, the model incorporates a comprehensive data harmonization pipeline featuring two key innovations. First, a unification scheme transforms multivariate inputs into standardized univariate sequences while retaining local inter-channel relationships. Second, a novel cross-domain temporal fusion strategy mitigates distribution shifts and enriches sample diversity and count, improving the model generalization across varying conditions. UniFault is pretrained on over 9 billion data points spanning diverse FD datasets, enabling superior few-shot performance. Extensive experiments on real-world FD datasets demonstrate that UniFault achieves SoTA performance, setting a new benchmark for fault diagnosis models and paving the way for more scalable and robust predictive maintenance solutions.

arXiv:2504.00676공식 코드 · Papers with Code

GLiNER-BioMed: A Suite of Efficient Models for Open Biomedical Named Entity Recognition

Biomedical named entity recognition (NER) presents unique challenges due to specialized vocabularies, the sheer volume of entities, and the continuous emergence of novel entities. Traditional NER models, constrained by fixed taxonomies and human annotations, struggle to generalize beyond predefined entity types. To address these issues, we introduce GLiNER-BioMed, a domain-adapted suite of Generalist and Lightweight Model for NER (GLiNER) models specifically tailored for biomedicine. In contrast to conventional approaches, GLiNER uses natural language labels to infer arbitrary entity types, enabling zero-shot recognition. Our approach first distills the annotation capabilities of large language models (LLMs) into a smaller, more efficient model, enabling the generation of high-coverage synthetic biomedical NER data. We subsequently train two GLiNER architectures, uni- and bi-encoder, at multiple scales to balance computational efficiency and recognition performance. Experiments on several biomedical datasets demonstrate that GLiNER-BioMed outperforms the state-of-the-art in both zero- and few-shot scenarios, achieving 5.96% improvement in F1-score over the strongest baseline (p-value < 0.001). Ablation studies highlight the effectiveness of our synthetic data generation strategy and emphasize the complementary benefits of synthetic biomedical pre-training combined with fine-tuning on general-domain annotations. All datasets, models, and training pipelines are publicly available at https://github.com/ds4dh/GLiNER-biomed.

arXiv:2503.21785공식 코드 · Papers with Code

Lend a Hand: Semi Training-Free Cued Speech Recognition via MLLM-Driven Hand Modeling for Barrier-free Communication

Cued Speech (CS) is an innovative visual communication system that integrates lip-reading with hand coding, designed to enhance effective communication for individuals with hearing impairments. Automatic CS Recognition (ACSR) refers to the AI-driven process of automatically recognizing hand gestures and lip movements in CS, converting them into text. However, previous work often relies on complex fusion modules and training techniques. Additionally, due to the limited amount of data in CS, the extraction of hand features, as well as recognition modeling, has consistently been subpar, significantly limiting the effectiveness of ACSR. To address this issue, we have innovatively explored the capabilities of Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in recognizing hand shapes and positions in CS. More precisely, we propose a new Semi Training-Free paradigm for ACSR, named STF-ACSR. This approach leverages zero-shot recognition of hand movements through the Chinese CS Prompt Module (CCSPM), which equipped a training-free keyframe filtering and customized prompt engineering based on MLLM. It then integrates the recognition results into the lip-reading model using a Minimalist Fusion Module (MFM), effectively achieving superior recognition results. Furthermore, specifically for this study, we have supplemented the existing dataset of 6 normal hearing CS cuers by recording additional data from 8 cuers with hearing impairments, resulting in a new mixed dataset. Extensive experiments have demonstrated that STF-ACSR significantly outperforms previous methods on both normal and hearing-impaired data. Implementation and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/DennisHgj/STF_ACSR.

arXiv:2503.23980공식 코드 · Papers with Code

SALT: A Flexible Semi-Automatic Labeling Tool for General LiDAR Point Clouds with Cross-Scene Adaptability and 4D Consistency

We propose a flexible Semi-Automatic Labeling Tool (SALT) for general LiDAR point clouds with cross-scene adaptability and 4D consistency. Unlike recent approaches that rely on camera distillation, SALT operates directly on raw LiDAR data, automatically generating pre-segmentation results. To achieve this, we propose a novel zero-shot learning paradigm, termed data alignment, which transforms LiDAR data into pseudo-images by aligning with the training distribution of vision foundation models. Additionally, we design a 4D-consistent prompting strategy and 4D non-maximum suppression module to enhance SAM2, ensuring high-quality, temporally consistent presegmentation. SALT surpasses the latest zero-shot methods by 18.4% PQ on SemanticKITTI and achieves nearly 40-50% of human annotator performance on our newly collected low-resolution LiDAR data and on combined data from three LiDAR types, significantly boosting annotation efficiency. We anticipate that SALT's open-sourcing will catalyze substantial expansion of current LiDAR datasets and lay the groundwork for the future development of LiDAR foundation models. Code is available at https://github.com/Cavendish518/SALT.

arXiv:2503.23529

ViLAaD: Enhancing "Attracting and Dispersing'' Source-Free Domain Adaptation with Vision-and-Language Model

Source-Free Domain Adaptation (SFDA) aims to adapt a pre-trained source model to a target dataset from a different domain without access to the source data. Conventional SFDA methods are limited by the information encoded in the pre-trained source model and the unlabeled target data. Recently, approaches leveraging auxiliary resources have emerged, yet remain in their early stages, offering ample opportunities for research. In this work, we propose a novel method that incorporates auxiliary information by extending an existing SFDA framework using Vision-and-Language (ViL) models. Specifically, we build upon Attracting and Dispersing (AaD), a widely adopted SFDA technique, and generalize its core principle to naturally integrate ViL models as a powerful initialization for target adaptation. Our approach, called ViL-enhanced AaD (ViLAaD), preserves the simplicity and flexibility of the AaD framework, while leveraging ViL models to significantly boost adaptation performance. We validate our method through experiments using various ViL models, demonstrating that ViLAaD consistently outperforms both AaD and zero-shot classification by ViL models, especially when both the source model and ViL model provide strong initializations. Moreover, the flexibility of ViLAaD allows it to be seamlessly incorporated into an alternating optimization framework with ViL prompt tuning and extended with additional objectives for target model adaptation. Extensive experiments on four SFDA benchmarks show that this enhanced version, ViLAaD++, achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple SFDA scenarios, including Closed-set SFDA, Partial-set SFDA, and Open-set SFDA.

arXiv:2503.23030

Visual and Semantic Prompt Collaboration for Generalized Zero-Shot Learning

Generalized zero-shot learning aims to recognize both seen and unseen classes with the help of semantic information that is shared among different classes. It inevitably requires consistent visual-semantic alignment. Existing approaches fine-tune the visual backbone by seen-class data to obtain semantic-related visual features, which may cause overfitting on seen classes with a limited number of training images. This paper proposes a novel visual and semantic prompt collaboration framework, which utilizes prompt tuning techniques for efficient feature adaptation. Specifically, we design a visual prompt to integrate the visual information for discriminative feature learning and a semantic prompt to integrate the semantic formation for visualsemantic alignment. To achieve effective prompt information integration, we further design a weak prompt fusion mechanism for the shallow layers and a strong prompt fusion mechanism for the deep layers in the network. Through the collaboration of visual and semantic prompts, we can obtain discriminative semantic-related features for generalized zero-shot image recognition. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework consistently achieves favorable performance in both conventional zero-shot learning and generalized zero-shot learning benchmarks compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

arXiv:2503.24182

CIBR: Cross-modal Information Bottleneck Regularization for Robust CLIP Generalization

Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) has achieved remarkable success in cross-modal tasks such as zero-shot image classification and text-image retrieval by effectively aligning visual and textual representations. However, the theoretical foundations underlying CLIP's strong generalization remain unclear. In this work, we address this gap by proposing the Cross-modal Information Bottleneck (CIB) framework. CIB offers a principled interpretation of CLIP's contrastive learning objective as an implicit Information Bottleneck optimization. Under this view, the model maximizes shared cross-modal information while discarding modality-specific redundancies, thereby preserving essential semantic alignment across modalities. Building on this insight, we introduce a Cross-modal Information Bottleneck Regularization (CIBR) method that explicitly enforces these IB principles during training. CIBR introduces a penalty term to discourage modality-specific redundancy, thereby enhancing semantic alignment between image and text features. We validate CIBR on extensive vision-language benchmarks, including zero-shot classification across seven diverse image datasets and text-image retrieval on MSCOCO and Flickr30K. The results show consistent performance gains over standard CLIP. These findings provide the first theoretical understanding of CLIP's generalization through the IB lens. They also demonstrate practical improvements, offering guidance for future cross-modal representation learning.

arXiv:2503.23175

Large Language Models are Unreliable for Cyber Threat Intelligence

Several recent works have argued that Large Language Models (LLMs) can be used to tame the data deluge in the cybersecurity field, by improving the automation of Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) tasks. This work presents an evaluation methodology that other than allowing to test LLMs on CTI tasks when using zero-shot learning, few-shot learning and fine-tuning, also allows to quantify their consistency and their confidence level. We run experiments with three state-of-the-art LLMs and a dataset of 350 threat intelligence reports and present new evidence of potential security risks in relying on LLMs for CTI. We show how LLMs cannot guarantee sufficient performance on real-size reports while also being inconsistent and overconfident. Few-shot learning and fine-tuning only partially improve the results, thus posing doubts about the possibility of using LLMs for CTI scenarios, where labelled datasets are lacking and where confidence is a fundamental factor.

arXiv:2503.23875공식 코드 · Papers with Code

GenSwarm: Scalable Multi-Robot Code-Policy Generation and Deployment via Language Models

The development of control policies for multi-robot systems traditionally follows a complex and labor-intensive process, often lacking the flexibility to adapt to dynamic tasks. This has motivated research on methods to automatically create control policies. However, these methods require iterative processes of manually crafting and refining objective functions, thereby prolonging the development cycle. This work introduces \textit{GenSwarm}, an end-to-end system that leverages large language models to automatically generate and deploy control policies for multi-robot tasks based on simple user instructions in natural language. As a multi-language-agent system, GenSwarm achieves zero-shot learning, enabling rapid adaptation to altered or unseen tasks. The white-box nature of the code policies ensures strong reproducibility and interpretability. With its scalable software and hardware architectures, GenSwarm supports efficient policy deployment on both simulated and real-world multi-robot systems, realizing an instruction-to-execution end-to-end functionality that could prove valuable for robotics specialists and non-specialists alike.The code of the proposed GenSwarm system is available online: https://github.com/WindyLab/GenSwarm.

arXiv:2503.22197

Extremely Simple Out-of-distribution Detection for Audio-visual Generalized Zero-shot Learning

Zero-shot Learning(ZSL) attains knowledge transfer from seen classes to unseen classes by exploring auxiliary category information, which is a promising yet difficult research topic. In this field, Audio-Visual Generalized Zero-Shot Learning~(AV-GZSL) has aroused researchers' great interest in which intricate relations within triple modalities~(audio, video, and natural language) render this task quite challenging but highly research-worthy. However, both existing embedding-based and generative-based AV-GZSL methods tend to suffer from domain shift problem a lot and we propose an extremely simple Out-of-distribution~(OOD) detection based AV-GZSL method~(EZ-AVOOD) to further mitigate bias problem by differentiating seen and unseen samples at the initial beginning. EZ-AVOOD accomplishes effective seen-unseen separation by exploiting the intrinsic discriminative information held in class-specific logits and class-agnostic feature subspace without training an extra OOD detector network. Followed by seen-unseen binary classification, we employ two expert models to classify seen samples and unseen samples separately. Compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, our model achieves superior ZSL and GZSL performances on three audio-visual datasets and becomes the new SOTA, which comprehensively demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed EZ-AVOOD.

arXiv:2503.19469

Enhancing Small Language Models for Cross-Lingual Generalized Zero-Shot Classification with Soft Prompt Tuning

In NLP, Zero-Shot Classification (ZSC) has become essential for enabling models to classify text into categories unseen during training, particularly in low-resource languages and domains where labeled data is scarce. While pretrained language models (PLMs) have shown promise in ZSC, they often rely on large training datasets or external knowledge, limiting their applicability in multilingual and low-resource scenarios. Recent approaches leveraging natural language prompts reduce the dependence on large training datasets but struggle to effectively incorporate available labeled data from related classification tasks, especially when these datasets originate from different languages or distributions. Moreover, existing prompt-based methods typically rely on manually crafted prompts in a specific language, limiting their adaptability and effectiveness in cross-lingual settings. To address these challenges, we introduce RoSPrompt, a lightweight and data-efficient approach for training soft prompts that enhance cross-lingual ZSC while ensuring robust generalization across data distribution shifts. RoSPrompt is designed for small multilingual PLMs, enabling them to leverage high-resource languages to improve performance in low-resource settings without requiring extensive fine-tuning or high computational costs. We evaluate our approach on multiple multilingual PLMs across datasets covering 106 languages, demonstrating strong cross-lingual transfer performance and robust generalization capabilities over unseen classes.

arXiv:2503.19670

fine-CLIP: Enhancing Zero-Shot Fine-Grained Surgical Action Recognition with Vision-Language Models

While vision-language models like CLIP have advanced zero-shot surgical phase recognition, they struggle with fine-grained surgical activities, especially action triplets. This limitation arises because current CLIP formulations rely on global image features, which overlook the fine-grained semantics and contextual details crucial for complex tasks like zero-shot triplet recognition. Furthermore, these models do not explore the hierarchical structure inherent in triplets, reducing their ability to generalize to novel triplets. To address these challenges, we propose fine-CLIP, which learns object-centric features and lever- ages the hierarchy in triplet formulation. Our approach integrates three components: hierarchical prompt modeling to capture shared semantics, LoRA-based vision backbone adaptation for enhanced feature extraction, and a graph-based condensation strategy that groups similar patch features into meaningful object clusters. Since triplet classification is a challenging task, we introduce an alternative yet meaningful base-to-novel generalization benchmark with two settings on the CholecT50 dataset: Unseen-Target, assessing adaptability to triplets with novel anatomical structures, and Unseen-Instrument-Verb, where models need to generalize to novel instrument-verb interactions. fine-CLIP shows significant improvements in F1 and mAP, enhancing zero-shot recognition of novel surgical triplets.

arXiv:2503.14754공식 코드 · Papers with Code

Bayesian Modeling of Zero-Shot Classifications for Urban Flood Detection

Street scene datasets, collected from Street View or dashboard cameras, offer a promising means of detecting urban objects and incidents like street flooding. However, a major challenge in using these datasets is their lack of reliable labels: there are myriad types of incidents, many types occur rarely, and ground-truth measures of where incidents occur are lacking. Here, we propose BayFlood, a two-stage approach which circumvents this difficulty. First, we perform zero-shot classification of where incidents occur using a pretrained vision-language model (VLM). Second, we fit a spatial Bayesian model on the VLM classifications. The zero-shot approach avoids the need to annotate large training sets, and the Bayesian model provides frequent desiderata in urban settings - principled measures of uncertainty, smoothing across locations, and incorporation of external data like stormwater accumulation zones. We comprehensively validate this two-stage approach, showing that VLMs provide strong zero-shot signal for floods across multiple cities and time periods, the Bayesian model improves out-of-sample prediction relative to baseline methods, and our inferred flood risk correlates with known external predictors of risk. Having validated our approach, we show it can be used to improve urban flood detection: our analysis reveals 113,738 people who are at high risk of flooding overlooked by current methods, identifies demographic biases in existing methods, and suggests locations for new flood sensors. More broadly, our results showcase how Bayesian modeling of zero-shot LM annotations represents a promising paradigm because it avoids the need to collect large labeled datasets and leverages the power of foundation models while providing the expressiveness and uncertainty quantification of Bayesian models.