Researchers currently use a number of approaches to predict and substantiate information-computation gaps in high-dimensional statistical estimation problems. A prominent approach is to characterize the limits of restricted models of computation, which on the one hand yields strong computational lower bounds for powerful classes of algorithms and on the other hand helps guide the development of efficient algorithms. In this paper, we study two of the most popular restricted computational models, the statistical query framework and low-degree polynomials, in the context of high-dimensional hypothesis testing. Our main result is that under mild conditions on the testing problem, the two classes of algorithms are essentially equivalent in power. As corollaries, we obtain new statistical query lower bounds for sparse PCA, tensor PCA and several variants of the planted clique problem.
For random field theory based multiple comparison corrections In brain imaging, it is often necessary to compute the distribution of the supremum of a random field. Unfortunately, computing the distribution of the supremum of the random field is not easy and requires satisfying many distributional assumptions that may not be true in real data. Thus, there is a need to come up with a different framework that does not use the traditional statistical hypothesis testing paradigm that requires to compute p-values. With this as a motivation, we can use a different approach called the logistic regression that does not require computing the p-value and still be able to localize the regions of brain network differences. Unlike other discriminant and classification techniques that tried to classify preselected feature vectors, the method here does not require any preselected feature vectors and performs the classification at each edge level.
We study the problem of detecting the edge correlation between two random graphs with $n$ unlabeled nodes. This is formalized as a hypothesis testing problem, where under the null hypothesis, the two graphs are independently generated; under the alternative, the two graphs are edge-correlated under some latent node correspondence, but have the same marginal distributions as the null. For both Gaussian-weighted complete graphs and dense Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs (with edge probability $n^{-o(1)}$), we determine the sharp threshold at which the optimal testing error probability exhibits a phase transition from zero to one as $n\to \infty$. For sparse Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs with edge probability $n^{-\Omega(1)}$, we determine the threshold within a constant factor. The proof of the impossibility results is an application of the conditional second-moment method, where we bound the truncated second moment of the likelihood ratio by carefully conditioning on the typical behavior of the intersection graph (consisting of edges in both observed graphs) and taking into account the cycle structure of the induced random permutation on the edges. Notably, in the sparse regime, this is accomplished by leveraging the pseudoforest structure of subcritical Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs and a careful enumeration of subpseudoforests that can be assembled from short orbits of the edge permutation.
We present an enhancement to the problem of beam alignment in millimeter wave (mmWave) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, based on a modification of the machine learning-based criterion, called Kolmogorov model (KM), previously applied to the beam alignment problem. Unlike the previous KM, whose computational complexity is not scalable with the size of the problem, a new approach, centered on discrete monotonic optimization (DMO), is proposed, leading to significantly reduced complexity. We also present a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) criterion for the advanced hypothesis testing, which does not require any subjective threshold setting compared to the frequency estimation (FE) method developed for the conventional KM. Simulation results that demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed KM learning for mmWave beam alignment are presented.
The Lasso is a method for high-dimensional regression, which is now commonly used when the number of covariates $p$ is of the same order or larger than the number of observations $n$. Classical asymptotic normality theory does not apply to this model due to two fundamental reasons: $(1)$ The regularized risk is non-smooth; $(2)$ The distance between the estimator $\widehat{\boldsymbol{\theta}}$ and the true parameters vector $\boldsymbol{\theta}^*$ cannot be neglected. As a consequence, standard perturbative arguments that are the traditional basis for asymptotic normality fail. On the other hand, the Lasso estimator can be precisely characterized in the regime in which both $n$ and $p$ are large and $n/p$ is of order one. This characterization was first obtained in the case of Gaussian designs with i.i.d. covariates: here we generalize it to Gaussian correlated designs with non-singular covariance structure. This is expressed in terms of a simpler ``fixed-design'' model. We establish non-asymptotic bounds on the distance between the distribution of various quantities in the two models, which hold uniformly over signals $\boldsymbol{\theta}^*$ in a suitable sparsity class and over values of the regularization parameter. As an application, we study the distribution of the debiased Lasso and show that a degrees-of-freedom correction is necessary for computing valid confidence intervals.
We present a comprehensive extension of the latent position network model known as the random dot product graph to accommodate multiple graphs -- both undirected and directed -- which share a common subset of nodes, and propose a method for jointly embedding the associated adjacency matrices, or submatrices thereof, into a suitable latent space. Theoretical results concerning the asymptotic behaviour of the node representations thus obtained are established, showing that after the application of a linear transformation these converge uniformly in the Euclidean norm to the latent positions with Gaussian error. Within this framework, we present a generalisation of the stochastic block model to a number of different multiple graph settings, and demonstrate the effectiveness of our joint embedding method through several statistical inference tasks in which we achieve comparable or better results than rival spectral methods. Empirical improvements in link prediction over single graph embeddings are exhibited in a cyber-security example.
Product recommendation can be considered as a problem in data fusion-- estimation of the joint distribution between individuals, their behaviors, and goods or services of interest. This work proposes a conditional, coupled generative adversarial network (RecommenderGAN) that learns to produce samples from a joint distribution between (view, buy) behaviors found in extremely sparse implicit feedback training data. User interaction is represented by two matrices having binary-valued elements. In each matrix, nonzero values indicate whether a user viewed or bought a specific item in a given product category, respectively. By encoding actions in this manner, the model is able to represent entire, large scale product catalogs. Conversion rate statistics computed on trained GAN output samples ranged from 1.323 to 1.763 percent. These statistics are found to be significant in comparison to null hypothesis testing results. The results are shown comparable to published conversion rates aggregated across many industries and product types. Our results are preliminary, however they suggest that the recommendations produced by the model may provide utility for consumers and digital retailers.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have become a significant tool for recommendation systems, feature selection, or summary extraction, harnessing the intrinsic ability of these probabilistic models to facilitate sample diversity. The ability to sample from DPPs is paramount to the empirical investigation of these models. Most exact samplers are variants of a spectral meta-algorithm due to Hough, Krishnapur, Peres and Vir\'ag (henceforth HKPV), which is in general time and resource intensive. For DPPs with symmetric kernels, scalable HKPV samplers have been proposed that either first downsample the ground set of items, or force the kernel to be low-rank, using e.g. Nystr\"om-type decompositions. In the present work, we contribute a radically different approach than HKPV. Exploiting the fact that many statistical and learning objectives can be effectively accomplished by only sampling certain key observables of a DPP (so-called linear statistics), we invoke an expression for the Laplace transform of such an observable as a single determinant, which holds in complete generality. Combining traditional low-rank approximation techniques with Laplace inversion algorithms from numerical analysis, we show how to directly approximate the distribution function of a linear statistic of a DPP. This distribution function can then be used in hypothesis testing or to actually sample the linear statistic, as per requirement. Our approach is scalable and applies to very general DPPs, beyond traditional symmetric kernels.
This paper presents an inverse reinforcement learning~(IRL) framework for Bayesian stopping time problems. By observing the actions of a Bayesian decision maker, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition to identify if these actions are consistent with optimizing a cost function. In a Bayesian (partially observed) setting, the inverse learner can at best identify optimality wrt the observed strategies. Our IRL algorithm identifies optimality and then constructs set-valued estimates of the cost function.To achieve this IRL objective, we use novel ideas from Bayesian revealed preferences stemming from microeconomics. We illustrate the proposed IRL scheme using two important examples of stopping time problems, namely, sequential hypothesis testing and Bayesian search. As a real-world example, we illustrate using a YouTube dataset comprising metadata from 190000 videos how the proposed IRL method predicts user engagement in online multimedia platforms with high accuracy. Finally, for finite datasets, we propose an IRL detection algorithm and give finite sample bounds on its error probabilities.
Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a promising approach for learning optimal policies in environments where direct exploration is expensive or unfeasible. However, the adoption of such policies in practice is often challenging, as they are hard to interpret within the application context, and lack measures of uncertainty for the learned policy value and its decisions. To overcome these issues, we propose an Expert-Supervised RL (ESRL) framework which uses uncertainty quantification for offline policy learning. In particular, we have three contributions: 1) the method can learn safe and optimal policies through hypothesis testing, 2) ESRL allows for different levels of risk averse implementations tailored to the application context, and finally, 3) we propose a way to interpret ESRL's policy at every state through posterior distributions, and use this framework to compute off-policy value function posteriors. We provide theoretical guarantees for our estimators and regret bounds consistent with Posterior Sampling for RL (PSRL). Sample efficiency of ESRL is independent of the chosen risk aversion threshold and quality of the behavior policy.
We address the following question in this paper: "What are the most robust statistical methods for social choice?'' By leveraging the theory of uniformly least favorable distributions in the Neyman-Pearson framework to finite models and randomized tests, we characterize uniformly most powerful (UMP) tests, which is a well-accepted statistical optimality w.r.t. robustness, for testing whether a given alternative is the winner under Mallows' model and under Condorcet's model, respectively.
A number of applications require two-sample testing on ranked preference data. For instance, in crowdsourcing, there is a long-standing question of whether pairwise comparison data provided by people is distributed similar to ratings-converted-to-comparisons. Other examples include sports data analysis and peer grading. In this paper, we design two-sample tests for pairwise comparison data and ranking data. For our two-sample test for pairwise comparison data, we establish an upper bound on the sample complexity required to correctly distinguish between the distributions of the two sets of samples. Our test requires essentially no assumptions on the distributions. We then prove complementary lower bounds showing that our results are tight (in the minimax sense) up to constant factors. We investigate the role of modeling assumptions by proving lower bounds for a range of pairwise comparison models (WST, MST,SST, parameter-based such as BTL and Thurstone). We also provide testing algorithms and associated sample complexity bounds for the problem of two-sample testing with partial (or total) ranking data.Furthermore, we empirically evaluate our results via extensive simulations as well as two real-world datasets consisting of pairwise comparisons. By applying our two-sample test on real-world pairwise comparison data, we conclude that ratings and rankings provided by people are indeed distributed differently. On the other hand, our test recognizes no significant difference in the relative performance of European football teams across two seasons. Finally, we apply our two-sample test on a real-world partial and total ranking dataset and find a statistically significant difference in Sushi preferences across demographic divisions based on gender, age and region of residence.
We present an improved method for symbolic regression that seeks to fit data to formulas that are Pareto-optimal, in the sense of having the best accuracy for a given complexity. It improves on the previous state-of-the-art by typically being orders of magnitude more robust toward noise and bad data, and also by discovering many formulas that stumped previous methods. We develop a method for discovering generalized symmetries (arbitrary modularity in the computational graph of a formula) from gradient properties of a neural network fit. We use normalizing flows to generalize our symbolic regression method to probability distributions from which we only have samples, and employ statistical hypothesis testing to accelerate robust brute-force search.
The $r$-parallel set of a measurable set $A \subseteq \mathbb R^d$ is the set of all points whose distance from $A$ is at most $r$. In this paper, we show that the surface area of an $r$-parallel set in $\mathbb R^d$ with volume at most $V$ is upper-bounded by $e^{\Theta(d)}V/r$, whereas its Gaussian surface area is upper-bounded by $\max(e^{\Theta(d)}, e^{\Theta(d)}/r)$. We also derive a reverse form of the Brunn-Minkowski inequality for $r$-parallel sets, and as an aside a reverse entropy power inequality for Gaussian-smoothed random variables. We apply our results to two problems in theoretical machine learning: (1) bounding the computational complexity of learning $r$-parallel sets under a Gaussian distribution; and (2) bounding the sample complexity of estimating robust risk, which is a notion of risk in the adversarial machine learning literature that is analogous to the Bayes risk in hypothesis testing.
Word Embeddings are used widely in multiple Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications. They are coordinates associated with each word in a dictionary, inferred from statistical properties of these words in a large corpus. In this paper we introduce the notion of "concept" as a list of words that have shared semantic content. We use this notion to analyse the learnability of certain concepts, defined as the capability of a classifier to recognise unseen members of a concept after training on a random subset of it. We first use this method to measure the learnability of concepts on pretrained word embeddings. We then develop a statistical analysis of concept learnability, based on hypothesis testing and ROC curves, in order to compare the relative merits of various embedding algorithms using a fixed corpora and hyper parameters. We find that all embedding methods capture the semantic content of those word lists, but fastText performs better than the others.
We present a flexible framework for learning predictive models that approximately satisfy the equalized odds notion of fairness. This is achieved by introducing a general discrepancy functional that rigorously quantifies violations of this criterion. This differentiable functional is used as a penalty driving the model parameters towards equalized odds. To rigorously evaluate fitted models, we develop a formal hypothesis test to detect whether a prediction rule violates this property, the first such test in the literature. Both the model fitting and hypothesis testing leverage a resampled version of the sensitive attribute obeying equalized odds, by construction. We demonstrate the applicability and validity of the proposed framework both in regression and multi-class classification problems, reporting improved performance over state-of-the-art methods. Lastly, we show how to incorporate techniques for equitable uncertainty quantification---unbiased for each group under study---to communicate the results of the data analysis in exact terms.
Opinion dynamics - the research field dealing with how people's opinions form and evolve in a social context - traditionally uses agent-based models to validate the implications of sociological theories. These models encode the causal mechanism that drives the opinion formation process, and have the advantage of being easy to interpret. However, as they do not exploit the availability of data, their predictive power is limited. Moreover, parameter calibration and model selection are manual and difficult tasks. In this work we propose an inference mechanism for fitting a generative, agent-like model of opinion dynamics to real-world social traces. Given a set of observables (e.g., actions and interactions between agents), our model can recover the most-likely latent opinion trajectories that are compatible with the assumptions about the process dynamics. This type of model retains the benefits of agent-based ones (i.e., causal interpretation), while adding the ability to perform model selection and hypothesis testing on real data. We showcase our proposal by translating a classical agent-based model of opinion dynamics into its generative counterpart. We then design an inference algorithm based on online expectation maximization to learn the latent parameters of the model. Such algorithm can recover the latent opinion trajectories from traces generated by the classical agent-based model. In addition, it can identify the most likely set of macro parameters used to generate a data trace, thus allowing testing of sociological hypotheses. Finally, we apply our model to real-world data from Reddit to explore the long-standing question about the impact of backfire effect. Our results suggest a low prominence of the effect in Reddit's political conversation.
We consider the problem of detecting anomalies among a given set of processes using their noisy binary sensor measurements. The noiseless sensor measurement corresponding to a normal process is 0, and the measurement is 1 if the process is anomalous. The decision-making algorithm is assumed to have no knowledge of the number of anomalous processes. The algorithm is allowed to choose a subset of the sensors at each time instant until the confidence level on the decision exceeds the desired value. Our objective is to design a sequential sensor selection policy that dynamically determines which processes to observe at each time and when to terminate the detection algorithm. The selection policy is designed such that the anomalous processes are detected with the desired confidence level while incurring minimum cost which comprises the delay in detection and the cost of sensing. We cast this problem as a sequential hypothesis testing problem within the framework of Markov decision processes, and solve it using the actor-critic deep reinforcement learning algorithm. This deep neural network-based algorithm offers a low complexity solution with good detection accuracy. We also study the effect of statistical dependence between the processes on the algorithm performance. Through numerical experiments, we show that our algorithm is able to adapt to any unknown statistical dependence pattern of the processes.
This is an up-to-date introduction to, and overview of, marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing. Computing normalizing constants of probability models (or ratio of constants) is a fundamental issue in many applications in statistics, applied mathematics, signal processing and machine learning. This article provides a comprehensive study of the state-of-the-art of the topic. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and differences among the different techniques. Problems and possible solutions with the use of improper priors are also described. Some of the most relevant methodologies are compared through theoretical comparisons and numerical experiments.
Active learning is a framework in which the learning machine can select the samples to be used for training. This technique is promising, particularly when the cost of data acquisition and labeling is high. In active learning, determining the timing at which learning should be stopped is a critical issue. In this study, we propose a criterion for automatically stopping active learning. The proposed stopping criterion is based on the difference in the expected generalization errors and hypothesis testing. We derive a novel upper bound for the difference in expected generalization errors before and after obtaining a new training datum based on PAC-Bayesian theory. Unlike ordinary PAC-Bayesian bounds, though, the proposed bound is deterministic; hence, there is no uncontrollable trade-off between the confidence and tightness of the inequality. We combine the upper bound with a statistical test to derive a stopping criterion for active learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method via experiments with both artificial and real datasets.