Power outages have become increasingly frequent, intense, and prolonged in the US due to climate change, aging electrical grids, and rising energy demand. However, largely due to the absence of granular spatiotemporal outage data, we lack data-driven evidence and analytics-based metrics to quantify power system vulnerability. This limitation has hindered the ability to effectively evaluate and address vulnerability to power outages in US communities. Here, we collected ~179 million power outage records at 15-minute intervals across 3022 US contiguous counties (96.15% of the area) from 2014 to 2023. We developed a power system vulnerability assessment framework based on three dimensions (intensity, frequency, and duration) and applied interpretable machine learning models (XGBoost and SHAP) to compute Power System Vulnerability Index (PSVI) at the county level. Our analysis reveals a consistent increase in power system vulnerability over the past decade. We identified 318 counties across 45 states as hotspots for high power system vulnerability, particularly in the West Coast (California and Washington), the East Coast (Florida and the Northeast area), the Great Lakes megalopolis (Chicago-Detroit metropolitan areas), and the Gulf of Mexico (Texas). Heterogeneity analysis indicates that urban counties, counties with interconnected grids, and states with high solar generation exhibit significantly higher vulnerability. Our results highlight the significance of the proposed PSVI for evaluating the vulnerability of communities to power outages. The findings underscore the widespread and pervasive impact of power outages across the country and offer crucial insights to support infrastructure operators, policymakers, and emergency managers in formulating policies and programs aimed at enhancing the resilience of the US power infrastructure.
The presented study aims to provide an efficient and reliable tool for rapid estimation of the shear capacity of a TRM-strengthened masonry wall. For this purpose, a data-driven methodology based on a machine learning system is proposed using a dataset constituted of experimental results selected from the bibliography. The outlier points were detected using Cook's distance methodology and removed from the raw dataset, which consisted of 113 examples and 11 input variables. In the processed dataset, 17 Machine Learning methods were trained, optimized through hyperparameter tuning, and compared on the test set. The most effective models are combined into a voting model to leverage the predictive capacity of more than a single regressor. The final blended model shows remarkable predicting capacity with the determination factor ($R^2$) equal to 0.95 and the mean absolute percentage error equal to 8.03\%. In sequence, machine learning interpretation methods are applied to find how the predictors influence the target output. $A_m$, $f_t$, and $n\cdot t_f$ were identified as the most significant predictors with a mainly positive influence on the shear capacity. Finally, the built ML system is employed in a user-friendly web app for easy access and usage by professionals and researchers.
We used interpretable machine learning to combine information from multiple heterogeneous spectra: X-ray absorption near-edge spectra (XANES) and atomic pair distribution functions (PDFs) to extract local structural and chemical environments of transition metal cations in oxides. Random forest models were trained on simulated XANES, PDF, and both combined to extract oxidation state, coordination number, and mean nearest-neighbor bond length. XANES-only models generally outperformed PDF-only models, even for structural tasks, although using the metal's differential PDFs (dPDFs) instead of total PDFs narrowed this gap. When combined with PDFs, information from XANES often dominates the prediction. Our results demonstrate that XANES contain rich structural information and highlight the utility of species-specificity. This interpretable, multimodal approach is quick to implement with suitable databases and offers valuable insights into the relative strengths of different modalities, guiding researchers in experiment design and identifying when combining complementary techniques adds meaningful information to a scientific investigation.
Banzhaf values offer a simple and interpretable alternative to the widely-used Shapley values. We introduce Kernel Banzhaf, a novel algorithm inspired by KernelSHAP, that leverages an elegant connection between Banzhaf values and linear regression. Through extensive experiments on feature attribution tasks, we demonstrate that Kernel Banzhaf substantially outperforms other algorithms for estimating Banzhaf values in both sample efficiency and robustness to noise. Furthermore, we prove theoretical guarantees on the algorithm's performance, establishing Kernel Banzhaf as a valuable tool for interpretable machine learning.
Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are widely recognized for their ability to create fully interpretable machine learning models for tabular data. Traditionally, training GAMs involves iterative learning algorithms, such as splines, boosted trees, or neural networks, which refine the additive components through repeated error reduction. In this paper, we introduce GAMformer, the first method to leverage in-context learning to estimate shape functions of a GAM in a single forward pass, representing a significant departure from the conventional iterative approaches to GAM fitting. Building on previous research applying in-context learning to tabular data, we exclusively use complex, synthetic data to train GAMformer, yet find it extrapolates well to real-world data. Our experiments show that GAMformer performs on par with other leading GAMs across various classification benchmarks while generating highly interpretable shape functions.
Large language models (LLMs) provide powerful means to leverage prior knowledge for predictive modeling when data is limited. In this work, we demonstrate how LLMs can use their compressed world knowledge to generate intrinsically interpretable machine learning models, i.e., decision trees, without any training data. We find that these zero-shot decision trees can surpass data-driven trees on some small-sized tabular datasets and that embeddings derived from these trees perform on par with data-driven tree-based embeddings on average. Our knowledge-driven decision tree induction and embedding approaches therefore serve as strong new baselines for data-driven machine learning methods in the low-data regime.
Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) are transforming the field of structural biology. For example, AlphaFold, a groundbreaking neural network for protein structure prediction, has been widely adopted by researchers. The availability of easy-to-use interfaces and interpretable outcomes from the neural network architecture, such as the confidence scores used to color the predicted structures, have made AlphaFold accessible even to non-ML experts. In this paper, we present various methods for representing protein 3D structures from low- to high-resolution, and show how interpretable ML methods can support tasks such as predicting protein structures, protein function, and protein-protein interactions. This survey also emphasizes the significance of interpreting and visualizing ML-based inference for structure-based protein representations that enhance interpretability and knowledge discovery. Developing such interpretable approaches promises to further accelerate fields including drug development and protein design.
Machine learning is permeating every conceivable domain to promote data-driven decision support. The focus is often on advanced black-box models due to their assumed performance advantages, whereas interpretable models are often associated with inferior predictive qualities. More recently, however, a new generation of generalized additive models (GAMs) has been proposed that offer promising properties for capturing complex, non-linear patterns while remaining fully interpretable. To uncover the merits and limitations of these models, this study examines the predictive performance of seven different GAMs in comparison to seven commonly used machine learning models based on a collection of twenty tabular benchmark datasets. To ensure a fair and robust model comparison, an extensive hyperparameter search combined with cross-validation was performed, resulting in 68,500 model runs. In addition, this study qualitatively examines the visual output of the models to assess their level of interpretability. Based on these results, the paper dispels the misconception that only black-box models can achieve high accuracy by demonstrating that there is no strict trade-off between predictive performance and model interpretability for tabular data. Furthermore, the paper discusses the importance of GAMs as powerful interpretable models for the field of information systems and derives implications for future work from a socio-technical perspective.
Comorbid anxiety disorders are common among patients with major depressive disorder (MDD), and numerous studies have identified an association between comorbid anxiety and resistance to pharmacological depression treatment. However, the impact of anxiety on the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions for MDD is not as well understood. In this study, we applied machine learning techniques to predict treatment responses in a large-scale clinical trial (n=493) of individuals with MDD, who were recruited online and randomly assigned to one of three smartphone-based interventions. Our analysis reveals that a baseline GAD-7 questionnaire score in the moderate to severe range (>10) predicts reduced probability of recovery from MDD. Our findings suggest that depressed individuals with comorbid anxiety face lower odds of substantial improvement in the context of smartphone-based therapeutic interventions for depression. Our work highlights a methodology that can identify simple, clinically useful "rules of thumb" for treatment response prediction using interpretable machine learning models.
Existing text representations such as embeddings and bag-of-words are not suitable for rule learning due to their high dimensionality and absent or questionable feature-level interpretability. This article explores whether large language models (LLMs) could address this by extracting a small number of interpretable features from text. We demonstrate this process on two datasets (CORD-19 and M17+) containing several thousand scientific articles from multiple disciplines and a target being a proxy for research impact. An evaluation based on testing for the statistically significant correlation with research impact has shown that LLama 2-generated features are semantically meaningful. We consequently used these generated features in text classification to predict the binary target variable representing the citation rate for the CORD-19 dataset and the ordinal 5-class target representing an expert-awarded grade in the M17+ dataset. Machine-learning models trained on the LLM-generated features provided similar predictive performance to the state-of-the-art embedding model SciBERT for scientific text. The LLM used only 62 features compared to 768 features in SciBERT embeddings, and these features were directly interpretable, corresponding to notions such as article methodological rigor, novelty, or grammatical correctness. As the final step, we extract a small number of well-interpretable action rules. Consistently competitive results obtained with the same LLM feature set across both thematically diverse datasets show that this approach generalizes across domains.
What is it to interpret the outputs of an opaque machine learning model. One approach is to develop interpretable machine learning techniques. These techniques aim to show how machine learning models function by providing either model centric local or global explanations, which can be based on mechanistic interpretations revealing the inner working mechanisms of models or nonmechanistic approximations showing input feature output data relationships. In this paper, we draw on social philosophy to argue that interpreting machine learning outputs in certain normatively salient domains could require appealing to a third type of explanation that we call sociostructural explanation. The relevance of this explanation type is motivated by the fact that machine learning models are not isolated entities but are embedded within and shaped by social structures. Sociostructural explanations aim to illustrate how social structures contribute to and partially explain the outputs of machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of sociostructural explanations by examining a racially biased healthcare allocation algorithm. Our proposal highlights the need for transparency beyond model interpretability, understanding the outputs of machine learning systems could require a broader analysis that extends beyond the understanding of the machine learning model itself.
Based on official estimates, 50 million people worldwide are affected by dementia, and this number increases by 10 million new patients every year. Without a cure, clinical prognostication and early intervention represent the most effective ways to delay its progression. To this end, Artificial Intelligence and computational linguistics can be exploited for natural language analysis, personalized assessment, monitoring, and treatment. However, traditional approaches need more semantic knowledge management and explicability capabilities. Moreover, using Large Language Models (LLMs) for cognitive decline diagnosis is still scarce, even though these models represent the most advanced way for clinical-patient communication using intelligent systems. Consequently, we leverage an LLM using the latest Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques in a chatbot solution to provide interpretable Machine Learning prediction of cognitive decline in real-time. Linguistic-conceptual features are exploited for appropriate natural language analysis. Through explainability, we aim to fight potential biases of the models and improve their potential to help clinical workers in their diagnosis decisions. More in detail, the proposed pipeline is composed of (i) data extraction employing NLP-based prompt engineering; (ii) stream-based data processing including feature engineering, analysis, and selection; (iii) real-time classification; and (iv) the explainability dashboard to provide visual and natural language descriptions of the prediction outcome. Classification results exceed 80 % in all evaluation metrics, with a recall value for the mental deterioration class about 85 %. To sum up, we contribute with an affordable, flexible, non-invasive, personalized diagnostic system to this work.
Correctly assessing the malignancy of breast lesions identified during ultrasound examinations is crucial for effective clinical decision-making. However, the current "golden standard" relies on manual BI-RADS scoring by clinicians, often leading to unnecessary biopsies and a significant mental health burden on patients and their families. In this paper, we introduce PersonalizedUS, an interpretable machine learning system that leverages recent advances in conformal prediction to provide precise and personalized risk estimates with local coverage guarantees and sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values above 0.9 across various threshold levels. In particular, we identify meaningful lesion subgroups where distribution-free, model-agnostic conditional coverage holds, with approximately 90% of our prediction sets containing only the ground truth in most lesion subgroups, thus explicitly characterizing for which patients the model is most suitably applied. Moreover, we make available a curated tabular dataset of 1936 biopsied breast lesions from a recent observational multicenter study and benchmark the performance of several state-of-the-art learning algorithms. We also report a successful case study of the deployed system in the same multicenter context. Concrete clinical benefits include up to a 65% reduction in requested biopsies among BI-RADS 4a and 4b lesions, with minimal to no missed cancer cases.
Machine learning models are often criticized for their black-box nature, raising concerns about their applicability in critical decision-making scenarios. Consequently, there is a growing demand for interpretable models in such contexts. In this study, we introduce Model-based Deep Rule Forests (mobDRF), an interpretable representation learning algorithm designed to extract transparent models from data. By leveraging IF-THEN rules with multi-level logic expressions, mobDRF enhances the interpretability of existing models without compromising accuracy. We apply mobDRF to identify key risk factors for cognitive decline in an elderly population, demonstrating its effectiveness in subgroup analysis and local model optimization. Our method offers a promising solution for developing trustworthy and interpretable machine learning models, particularly valuable in fields like healthcare, where understanding differential effects across patient subgroups can lead to more personalized and effective treatments.
The analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition offers a systematic method to understand the interaction effects that contribute to a specific decision output. In this paper we introduce Neural-ANOVA, an approach to decompose neural networks into glassbox models using the ANOVA decomposition. Our approach formulates a learning problem, which enables rapid and closed-form evaluation of integrals over subspaces that appear in the calculation of the ANOVA decomposition. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to illustrate the advantages of enhanced interpretability and model validation by a decomposition of the learned interaction effects.
The growing interest in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) motivates promising studies of computing optimal Interpretable Machine Learning models, especially decision trees. Such models generally provide optimality in compact size or empirical accuracy. Recent works focus on improving efficiency due to the natural scalability issue. The application of such models to practical problems is quite limited. As an emerging problem in circuit design, Approximate Logic Synthesis (ALS) aims to reduce circuit complexity by sacrificing correctness. Recently, multiple heuristic machine learning methods have been applied in ALS, which learns approximated circuits from samples of input-output pairs. In this paper, we propose a new ALS methodology realizing the approximation via learning optimal decision trees in empirical accuracy. Compared to previous heuristic ALS methods, the guarantee of optimality achieves a more controllable trade-off between circuit complexity and accuracy. Experimental results show clear improvements in our methodology in the quality of approximated designs (circuit complexity and accuracy) compared to the state-of-the-art approaches.
The increasing popularity of Artificial Intelligence in recent years has led to a surge in interest in image classification, especially in the agricultural sector. With the help of Computer Vision, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning, the sector has undergone a significant transformation, leading to the development of new techniques for crop classification in the field. Despite the extensive research on various image classification techniques, most have limitations such as low accuracy, limited use of data, and a lack of reporting model size and prediction. The most significant limitation of all is the need for model explainability. This research evaluates four different approaches for crop classification, namely traditional ML with handcrafted feature extraction methods like SIFT, ORB, and Color Histogram; Custom Designed CNN and established DL architecture like AlexNet; transfer learning on five models pre-trained using ImageNet such as EfficientNetV2, ResNet152V2, Xception, Inception-ResNetV2, MobileNetV3; and cutting-edge foundation models like YOLOv8 and DINOv2, a self-supervised Vision Transformer Model. All models performed well, but Xception outperformed all of them in terms of generalization, achieving 98% accuracy on the test data, with a model size of 80.03 MB and a prediction time of 0.0633 seconds. A key aspect of this research was the application of Explainable AI to provide the explainability of all the models. This journal presents the explainability of Xception model with LIME, SHAP, and GradCAM, ensuring transparency and trustworthiness in the models' predictions. This study highlights the importance of selecting the right model according to task-specific needs. It also underscores the important role of explainability in deploying AI in agriculture, providing insightful information to help enhance AI-driven crop management strategies.
Whole slide images (WSIs) are gigapixel-scale digital images of H\&E-stained tissue samples widely used in pathology. The substantial size and complexity of WSIs pose unique analytical challenges. Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) has emerged as a powerful approach for addressing these challenges, particularly in cancer classification and detection. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of the challenges and methodologies associated with applying MIL to WSI analysis, including attention mechanisms, pseudo-labeling, transformers, pooling functions, and graph neural networks. Additionally, it explores the potential of MIL in discovering cancer cell morphology, constructing interpretable machine learning models, and quantifying cancer grading. By summarizing the current challenges, methodologies, and potential applications of MIL in WSI analysis, this survey aims to inform researchers about the state of the field and inspire future research directions.
Manipulating the dispersive characteristics of vibrational waves is beneficial for many applications, e.g., high-precision instruments. architected hierarchical phononic materials have sparked promise tunability of elastodynamic waves and vibrations over multiple frequency ranges. In this article, hierarchical unit-cells are obtained, where features at each length scale result in a band gap within a targeted frequency range. Our novel approach, the ``hierarchical unit-cell template method,'' is an interpretable machine-learning approach that uncovers global unit-cell shape/topology patterns corresponding to predefined band-gap objectives. A scale-separation effect is observed where the coarse-scale band-gap objective is mostly unaffected by the fine-scale features despite the closeness of their length scales, thus enabling an efficient hierarchical algorithm. Moreover, the hierarchical patterns revealed are not predefined or self-similar hierarchies as common in current hierarchical phononic materials. Thus, our approach offers a flexible and efficient method for the exploration of new regions in the hierarchical design space, extracting minimal effective patterns for inverse design in applications targeting multiple frequency ranges.
There are two things to be considered when we evaluate predictive models. One is prediction accuracy,and the other is interpretability. Over the recent decades, many prediction models of high performance, such as ensemble-based models and deep neural networks, have been developed. However, these models are often too complex, making it difficult to intuitively interpret their predictions. This complexity in interpretation limits their use in many real-world fields that require accountability, such as medicine, finance, and college admissions. In this study, we develop a novel method called Meta-ANOVA to provide an interpretable model for any given prediction model. The basic idea of Meta-ANOVA is to transform a given black-box prediction model to the functional ANOVA model. A novel technical contribution of Meta-ANOVA is a procedure of screening out unnecessary interaction before transforming a given black-box model to the functional ANOVA model. This screening procedure allows the inclusion of higher order interactions in the transformed functional ANOVA model without computational difficulties. We prove that the screening procedure is asymptotically consistent. Through various experiments with synthetic and real-world datasets, we empirically demonstrate the superiority of Meta-ANOVA