Federated Learning enables collaborative training of machine learning models on decentralized data. This scheme, however, is vulnerable to adversarial attacks, when some of the clients submit corrupted model updates. In real-world scenarios, the total number of compromised clients is typically unknown, with the extent of attacks potentially varying over time. To address these challenges, we propose an adaptive approach for robust aggregation of model updates based on Bayesian inference. The mean update is defined by the maximum of the likelihood marginalized over probabilities of each client to be `honest'. As a result, the method shares the simplicity of the classical average estimators (e.g., sample mean or geometric median), being independent of the number of compromised clients. At the same time, it is as effective against attacks as methods specifically tailored to Federated Learning, such as Krum. We compare our approach with other aggregation schemes in federated setting on three benchmark image classification data sets. The proposed method consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across various attack types with static and varying number of malicious clients.
Studies of hadron resonances and their properties are limited by the accuracy and consistency of measured datasets, which can originate from many different experiments. We have used Gaussian Processes (GP) to build interpolated datasets, including quantification of uncertainties, so that data from different sources can be used in model fitting without the need for arbitrary weighting. GPs predict values and uncertainties of observables at any kinematic point. Bayesian inference is used to optimise the hyperparameters of the GP model. We demonstrate that the GP successfully interpolates data with quantified uncertainties by comparison with generated pseudodata. We also show that this methodology can be used to investigate the consistency of data from different sources. GPs provide a robust, model-independent method for interpolating typical datasets used in hadron resonance studies, removing the limitations of arbitrary weighting in sparse datasets.
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit probabilistic output characteristics, yet conventional evaluation frameworks rely on deterministic scalar metrics. This study introduces a Bayesian approach for LLM capability assessment that integrates prior knowledge through probabilistic inference, addressing limitations under limited-sample regimes. By treating model capabilities as latent variables and leveraging a curated query set to induce discriminative responses, we formalize model ranking as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem over mutually exclusive capability intervals. Experimental evaluations with GPT-series models demonstrate that the proposed method achieves superior discrimination compared to conventional evaluation methods. Results indicate that even with reduced sample sizes, the approach maintains statistical robustness while providing actionable insights, such as probabilistic statements about a model's likelihood of surpassing specific baselines. This work advances LLM evaluation methodologies by bridging Bayesian inference with practical constraints in real-world deployment scenarios.
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely used in modeling sentence processing but often exhibit deterministic behavior, contrasting with human sentence comprehension, which manages uncertainty during ambiguous or unexpected inputs. This is exemplified by reversal anomalies-sentences with unexpected role reversals that challenge syntax and semantics-highlighting the limitations of traditional ANN models, such as the Sentence Gestalt (SG) Model. To address these limitations, we propose a Bayesian framework for sentence comprehension, applying an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for Bayesian inference to quantify uncertainty. By framing language comprehension as a Bayesian inverse problem, this approach enhances the SG model's ability to reflect human sentence processing with respect to the representation of uncertainty. Numerical experiments and comparisons with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) demonstrate that Bayesian methods improve uncertainty representation, enabling the model to better approximate human cognitive processing when dealing with linguistic ambiguities.
Magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is a non-invasive technique to measure the metabolic composition of tissues, offering valuable insights into neurological disorders, tumor detection, and other metabolic dysfunctions. However, accurate metabolite quantification is hindered by challenges such as spectral overlap, low signal-to-noise ratio, and various artifacts. Traditional methods like linear-combination modeling are susceptible to ambiguities and commonly only provide a theoretical lower bound on estimation accuracy in the form of the Cram\'er-Rao bound. This work introduces a Bayesian inference framework using Sylvester normalizing flows (SNFs) to approximate posterior distributions over metabolite concentrations, enhancing quantification reliability. A physics-based decoder incorporates prior knowledge of MRS signal formation, ensuring realistic distribution representations. We validate the method on simulated 7T proton MRS data, demonstrating accurate metabolite quantification, well-calibrated uncertainties, and insights into parameter correlations and multi-modal distributions.
Bioprocess mechanistic modeling is essential for advancing intelligent digital twin representation of biomanufacturing, yet challenges persist due to complex intracellular regulation, stochastic system behavior, and limited experimental data. This paper introduces a symbolic and statistical learning framework to identify key regulatory mechanisms and quantify model uncertainty. Bioprocess dynamics is formulated with stochastic differential equations characterizing intrinsic process variability, with a predefined set of candidate regulatory mechanisms constructed from biological knowledge. A Bayesian learning approach is developed, which is based on a joint learning of kinetic parameters and regulatory structure through a formulation of the mixture model. To enhance computational efficiency, a Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm with adjoint sensitivity analysis is developed for posterior exploration. Compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian inference approaches, the proposed framework achieves improved sample efficiency and robust model selection. An empirical study demonstrates its ability to recover missing regulatory mechanisms and improve model fidelity under data-limited conditions.
In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.
The evaluation of Generative AI (GenAI) systems plays a critical role in public policy and decision-making, yet existing methods are often limited by reliance on benchmark-driven, point-estimate comparisons that fail to capture uncertainty and broader societal impacts. This paper argues for the use of Bayesian statistics as a principled framework to address these challenges. Bayesian methods enable the integration of domain expertise through prior elicitation, allow for continuous learning from new data, and provide robust uncertainty quantification via posterior inference. We demonstrate how Bayesian inference can be applied to GenAI evaluation, particularly in incorporating stakeholder perspectives to enhance fairness, transparency, and reliability. Furthermore, we discuss Bayesian workflows as an iterative process for model validation and refinement, ensuring robust assessments of GenAI systems in dynamic, real-world contexts.
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complex neurodegenerative disorder characterized by the accumulation of amyloid-beta (A$\beta$) and phosphorylated tau (p-tau) proteins, leading to cognitive decline measured by the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS) score. In this study, we develop and analyze a system of ordinary differential equation models to describe the interactions between A$\beta$, p-tau, and ADAS score, providing a mechanistic understanding of disease progression. To ensure accurate model calibration, we employ Bayesian inference and Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) for parameter estimation based on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative data. The data-driven Bayesian approach enables uncertainty quantification, improving confidence in model predictions, while the PINN framework leverages neural networks to capture complex dynamics directly from data. Furthermore, we implement an optimal control strategy to assess the efficacy of an anti-tau therapeutic intervention aimed at reducing p-tau levels and mitigating cognitive decline. Our data-driven solutions indicate that while optimal drug administration effectively decreases p-tau concentration, its impact on cognitive decline, as reflected in the ADAS score, remains limited. These findings suggest that targeting p-tau alone may not be sufficient for significant cognitive improvement, highlighting the need for multi-target therapeutic strategies. The integration of mechanistic modelling, advanced parameter estimation, and control-based therapeutic optimization provides a comprehensive framework for improving treatment strategies for AD.
Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations remains a significant challenge in many scientific domains. We propose normalizing flow regression (NFR), a novel offline inference method for approximating posterior distributions. Unlike traditional surrogate approaches that require additional sampling or inference steps, NFR directly yields a tractable posterior approximation through regression on existing log-density evaluations. We introduce training techniques specifically for flow regression, such as tailored priors and likelihood functions, to achieve robust posterior and model evidence estimation. We demonstrate NFR's effectiveness on synthetic benchmarks and real-world applications from neuroscience and biology, showing superior or comparable performance to existing methods. NFR represents a promising approach for Bayesian inference when standard methods are computationally prohibitive or existing model evaluations can be recycled.
Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) is a sample-efficient method for approximate Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihoods. While VBMC's local surrogate approach provides stable approximations, its conservative exploration strategy and limited evaluation budget can cause it to miss regions of complex posteriors. In this work, we introduce Stacking Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (S-VBMC), a method that constructs global posterior approximations by merging independent VBMC runs through a principled and inexpensive post-processing step. Our approach leverages VBMC's mixture posterior representation and per-component evidence estimates, requiring no additional likelihood evaluations while being naturally parallelizable. We demonstrate S-VBMC's effectiveness on two synthetic problems designed to challenge VBMC's exploration capabilities and two real-world applications from computational neuroscience, showing substantial improvements in posterior approximation quality across all cases.
Biological synapses effortlessly balance memory retention and flexibility, yet artificial neural networks still struggle with the extremes of catastrophic forgetting and catastrophic remembering. Here, we introduce Metaplasticity from Synaptic Uncertainty (MESU), a Bayesian framework that updates network parameters according their uncertainty. This approach allows a principled combination of learning and forgetting that ensures that critical knowledge is preserved while unused or outdated information is gradually released. Unlike standard Bayesian approaches -- which risk becoming overly constrained, and popular continual-learning methods that rely on explicit task boundaries, MESU seamlessly adapts to streaming data. It further provides reliable epistemic uncertainty estimates, allowing out-of-distribution detection, the only computational cost being to sample the weights multiple times to provide proper output statistics. Experiments on image-classification benchmarks demonstrate that MESU mitigates catastrophic forgetting, while maintaining plasticity for new tasks. When training 200 sequential permuted MNIST tasks, MESU outperforms established continual learning techniques in terms of accuracy, capability to learn additional tasks, and out-of-distribution data detection. Additionally, due to its non-reliance on task boundaries, MESU outperforms conventional learning techniques on the incremental training of CIFAR-100 tasks consistently in a wide range of scenarios. Our results unify ideas from metaplasticity, Bayesian inference, and Hessian-based regularization, offering a biologically-inspired pathway to robust, perpetual learning.
We present a Bayesian dynamic borrowing (BDB) approach to enhance the quantitative identification of adverse events (AEs) in spontaneous reporting systems (SRSs). The method embeds a robust meta-analytic predictive (MAP) prior with a Bayesian hierarchical model and incorporates semantic similarity measures (SSMs) to enable weighted information sharing from clinically similar MedDRA Preferred Terms (PTs) to the target PT. This continuous similarity-based borrowing overcomes limitations of rigid hierarchical grouping in current disproportionality analysis (DPA). Using data from the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS) between 2015 and 2019, we evaluate our approach -- termed IC SSM -- against traditional Information Component (IC) analysis and IC with borrowing at the MedDRA high-level group term level (IC HLGT). A reference set (PVLens), derived from FDA product label update, enabled prospective evaluation of method performance in identifying AEs prior to official labeling. The IC SSM approach demonstrated higher sensitivity (1332/2337=0.570, Youden's J=0.246) than traditional IC (Se=0.501, J=0.250) and IC HLGT (Se=0.556, J=0.225), consistently identifying more true positives and doing so on average 5 months sooner than traditional IC. Despite a marginally lower aggregate F1-score and Youden's index, IC SSM showed higher performance in early post-marketing periods or when the detection threshold was raised, providing more stable and relevant alerts than IC HLGT and traditional IC. These findings support the use of SSM-informed Bayesian borrowing as a scalable and context-aware enhancement to traditional DPA methods, with potential for validation across other datasets and exploration of additional similarity metrics and Bayesian strategies using case-level data.
We propose a robust and scalable framework for variational Bayes (VB) that effectively handles outliers and contamination of arbitrary nature in large datasets. Our approach divides the dataset into disjoint subsets, computes the posterior for each subset, and applies VB approximation independently to these posteriors. The resulting variational posteriors with respect to the subsets are then aggregated using the geometric median of probability measures, computed with respect to the Wasserstein distance. This novel aggregation method yields the Variational Median Posterior (VM-Posterior) distribution. We rigorously demonstrate that the VM-Posterior preserves contraction properties akin to those of the true posterior, while accounting for approximation errors or the variational gap inherent in VB methods. We also provide provable robustness guarantee of the VM-Posterior. Furthermore, we establish a variational Bernstein-von Mises theorem for both multivariate Gaussian distributions with general covariance structures and the mean-field variational family. To facilitate practical implementation, we adapt existing algorithms for computing the VM-Posterior and evaluate its performance through extensive numerical experiments. The results highlight its robustness and scalability, making it a reliable tool for Bayesian inference in the presence of complex, contaminated datasets.
Deep generative models have been studied and developed primarily in the context of natural images and computer vision. This has spurred the development of (Bayesian) methods that use these generative models for inverse problems in image restoration, such as denoising, inpainting, and super-resolution. In recent years, generative modeling for Bayesian inference on sensory data has also gained traction. Nevertheless, the direct application of generative modeling techniques initially designed for natural images on raw sensory data is not straightforward, requiring solutions that deal with high dynamic range signals acquired from multiple sensors or arrays of sensors that interfere with each other, and that typically acquire data at a very high rate. Moreover, the exact physical data-generating process is often complex or unknown. As a consequence, approximate models are used, resulting in discrepancies between model predictions and the observations that are non-Gaussian, in turn complicating the Bayesian inverse problem. Finally, sensor data is often used in real-time processing or decision-making systems, imposing stringent requirements on, e.g., latency and throughput. In this paper, we will discuss some of these challenges and offer approaches to address them, all in the context of high-rate real-time sensing applications in automotive radar and medical imaging.
The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes mixed-effects models widely applied in fields such as biology, pharmacokinetics, and sociology. In this work, we propose a novel methodology for scalable Bayesian inference in hierarchical mixed-effects models. Our framework first constructs amortized approximations of the likelihood and the posterior distribution, which are then rapidly refined for each individual dataset, to ultimately approximate the parameters posterior across many individuals. The framework is easily trainable, as it uses mixtures of experts but without neural networks, leading to parsimonious yet expressive surrogate models of the likelihood and the posterior. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology using challenging stochastic models, such as mixed-effects stochastic differential equations emerging in systems biology-driven problems. However, the approach is broadly applicable and can accommodate both stochastic and deterministic models. We show that our approach can seamlessly handle inference for many parameters. Additionally, we applied our method to a real-data case study of mRNA transfection. When compared to exact pseudomarginal Bayesian inference, our approach proved to be both fast and competitive in terms of statistical accuracy.
We address the problem of uncertainty propagation in the discrete Fourier transform by modeling the fast Fourier transform as a factor graph. Building on this representation, we propose an efficient framework for approximate Bayesian inference using belief propagation (BP) and expectation propagation, extending its applicability beyond Gaussian assumptions. By leveraging an appropriate BP message representation and a suitable schedule, our method achieves stable convergence with accurate mean and variance estimates. Numerical experiments in representative scenarios from communications demonstrate the practical potential of the proposed framework for uncertainty-aware inference in probabilistic systems operating across both time and frequency domain.
We propose a score-based generative algorithm for sampling from power-scaled priors and likelihoods within the Bayesian inference framework. Our algorithm enables flexible control over prior-likelihood influence without requiring retraining for different power-scaling configurations. Specifically, we focus on synthesizing seismic velocity models conditioned on imaged seismic. Our method enables sensitivity analysis by sampling from intermediate power posteriors, allowing us to assess the relative influence of the prior and likelihood on samples of the posterior distribution. Through a comprehensive set of experiments, we evaluate the effects of varying the power parameter in different settings: applying it solely to the prior, to the likelihood of a Bayesian formulation, and to both simultaneously. The results show that increasing the power of the likelihood up to a certain threshold improves the fidelity of posterior samples to the conditioning data (e.g., seismic images), while decreasing the prior power promotes greater structural diversity among samples. Moreover, we find that moderate scaling of the likelihood leads to a reduced shot data residual, confirming its utility in posterior refinement.
We propose the Metropolis-Hastings Captioning Game (MHCG), a method to fuse knowledge of multiple vision-language models (VLMs) by learning from each other. Although existing methods that combine multiple models suffer from inference costs and architectural constraints, MHCG avoids these problems by performing decentralized Bayesian inference through a process resembling a language game. The knowledge fusion process establishes communication between two VLM agents alternately captioning images and learning from each other. We conduct two image-captioning experiments with two VLMs, each pre-trained on a different dataset. The first experiment demonstrates that MHCG achieves consistent improvement in reference-free evaluation metrics. The second experiment investigates how MHCG contributes to sharing VLMs' category-level vocabulary by observing the occurrence of the vocabulary in the generated captions.
This paper integrates Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) to assess collision risk and establish Automotive Safety Integrity Level (ASIL) B failure rate targets for critical autonomous vehicle (AV) components. The FTA-BN integration combines the systematic decomposition of failure events provided by FTA with the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of BN, which allow for dynamic updates in failure probabilities, enhancing the adaptability of risk assessment. A fault tree is constructed based on AV subsystem architecture, with collision as the top event, and failure rates are assigned while ensuring the total remains within 100 FIT. Bayesian inference is applied to update posterior probabilities, and the results indicate that perception system failures (46.06 FIT) are the most significant contributor, particularly failures to detect existing objects (PF5) and misclassification (PF6). Mitigation strategies are proposed for sensors, perception, decision-making, and motion control to reduce the collision risk. The FTA-BN integration approach provides dynamic risk quantification, offering system designers refined failure rate targets to improve AV safety.