Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific test unit(s) of interest, requiring uncertainty quantification tailored to these focal units. In such cases, marginally valid conformal prediction intervals may fail to provide valid coverage for the focal unit(s) due to selection bias. This paper presents a general framework for constructing a prediction set with finite-sample exact coverage, conditional on the unit being selected by a given procedure. The general form of our method accommodates arbitrary selection rules that are invariant to the permutation of the calibration units, and generalizes Mondrian Conformal Prediction to multiple test units and non-equivariant classifiers. We also work out computationally efficient implementation of our framework for a number of realistic selection rules, including top-K selection, optimization-based selection, selection based on conformal p-values, and selection based on properties of preliminary conformal prediction sets. The performance of our methods is demonstrated via applications in drug discovery and health risk prediction.
Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ that builds prediction $\textit{regions}$ for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate $\textit{finite-sample}$ high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.
In today's data-driven digital era, the amount as well as complexity, such as multi-view, non-Euclidean, and multi-relational, of the collected data are growing exponentially or even faster. Clustering, which unsupervisely extracts valid knowledge from data, is extremely useful in practice. However, existing methods are independently developed to handle one particular challenge at the expense of the others. In this work, we propose a simple but effective framework for complex data clustering (CDC) that can efficiently process different types of data with linear complexity. We first utilize graph filtering to fuse geometry structure and attribute information. We then reduce the complexity with high-quality anchors that are adaptively learned via a novel similarity-preserving regularizer. We illustrate the cluster-ability of our proposed method theoretically and experimentally. In particular, we deploy CDC to graph data of size 111M.
Human label variation arises when annotators assign different labels to the same item for valid reasons, while annotation errors occur when labels are assigned for invalid reasons. These two issues are prevalent in NLP benchmarks, yet existing research has studied them in isolation. To the best of our knowledge, there exists no prior work that focuses on teasing apart error from signal, especially in cases where signal is beyond black-and-white. To fill this gap, we introduce a systematic methodology and a new dataset, VariErr (variation versus error), focusing on the NLI task in English. We propose a 2-round annotation procedure with annotators explaining each label and subsequently judging the validity of label-explanation pairs. VariErr contains 7,732 validity judgments on 1,933 explanations for 500 re-annotated MNLI items. We assess the effectiveness of various automatic error detection (AED) methods and GPTs in uncovering errors versus human label variation. We find that state-of-the-art AED methods significantly underperform GPTs and humans. While GPT-4 is the best system, it still falls short of human performance. Our methodology is applicable beyond NLI, offering fertile ground for future research on error versus plausible variation, which in turn can yield better and more trustworthy NLP systems.
Knowledge-grounded dialogue systems aim to generate coherent and engaging responses based on the dialogue contexts and selected external knowledge. Previous knowledge selection methods tend to rely too heavily on the dialogue contexts or over-emphasize the new information in the selected knowledge, resulting in the selection of repetitious or incongruous knowledge and further generating repetitive or incoherent responses, as the generation of the response depends on the chosen knowledge. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a Coherent and Engaging Topic Transition (CET2) framework to model topic transitions for selecting knowledge that is coherent to the context of the conversations while providing adequate knowledge diversity for topic development. Our CET2 framework considers multiple factors for knowledge selection, including valid transition logic from dialogue contexts to the following topics and systematic comparisons between available knowledge candidates. Extensive experiments on two public benchmarks demonstrate the superiority and the better generalization ability of CET2 on knowledge selection. This is due to our well-designed transition features and comparative knowledge selection strategy, which are more transferable to conversations about unseen topics. Analysis of fine-grained knowledge selection accuracy also shows that CET2 can better balance topic entailment (contextual coherence) and development (knowledge diversity) in dialogue than existing approaches.
Recently, there has been a surge of interest in incorporating neural networks into particle filters, e.g. differentiable particle filters, to perform joint sequential state estimation and model learning for non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models in complex environments. Existing differentiable particle filters are mostly constructed with vanilla neural networks that do not allow density estimation. As a result, they are either restricted to a bootstrap particle filtering framework or employ predefined distribution families (e.g. Gaussian distributions), limiting their performance in more complex real-world scenarios. In this paper we present a differentiable particle filtering framework that uses (conditional) normalizing flows to build its dynamic model, proposal distribution, and measurement model. This not only enables valid probability densities but also allows the proposed method to adaptively learn these modules in a flexible way, without being restricted to predefined distribution families. We derive the theoretical properties of the proposed filters and evaluate the proposed normalizing flow-based differentiable particle filters' performance through a series of numerical experiments.
Inspired by the concept of active learning, we propose active inference$\unicode{x2013}$a methodology for statistical inference with machine-learning-assisted data collection. Assuming a budget on the number of labels that can be collected, the methodology uses a machine learning model to identify which data points would be most beneficial to label, thus effectively utilizing the budget. It operates on a simple yet powerful intuition: prioritize the collection of labels for data points where the model exhibits uncertainty, and rely on the model's predictions where it is confident. Active inference constructs provably valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests while leveraging any black-box machine learning model and handling any data distribution. The key point is that it achieves the same level of accuracy with far fewer samples than existing baselines relying on non-adaptively-collected data. This means that for the same number of collected samples, active inference enables smaller confidence intervals and more powerful p-values. We evaluate active inference on datasets from public opinion research, census analysis, and proteomics.
Simpson's paradox is an obstacle to establishing a probabilistic association between two events $a_1$ and $a_2$, given the third (lurking) random variable $B$. We focus on scenarios when the random variables $A$ (which combines $a_1$, $a_2$, and their complements) and $B$ have a common cause $C$ that need not be observed. Alternatively, we can assume that $C$ screens out $A$ from $B$. For such cases, the correct association between $a_1$ and $a_2$ is to be defined via conditioning over $C$. This setup generalizes the original Simpson's paradox: now its two contradicting options refer to two particular and different causes $C$. We show that if $B$ and $C$ are binary and $A$ is quaternary (the minimal and the most widespread situation for the Simpson's paradox), the conditioning over any binary common cause $C$ establishes the same direction of association between $a_1$ and $a_2$ as the conditioning over $B$ in the original formulation of the paradox. Thus, for the minimal common cause, one should choose the option of Simpson's paradox that assumes conditioning over $B$ and not its marginalization. The same conclusion is reached when Simpson's paradox is formulated via 3 continuous Gaussian variables: within the minimal formulation of the paradox (3 scalar continuous variables $A_1$, $A_2$, and $B$), one should choose the option with the conditioning over $B$.
In the realm of computer vision and graphics, accurately establishing correspondences between geometric 3D shapes is pivotal for applications like object tracking, registration, texture transfer, and statistical shape analysis. Moving beyond traditional hand-crafted and data-driven feature learning methods, we incorporate spectral methods with deep learning, focusing on functional maps (FMs) and optimal transport (OT). Traditional OT-based approaches, often reliant on entropy regularization OT in learning-based framework, face computational challenges due to their quadratic cost. Our key contribution is to employ the sliced Wasserstein distance (SWD) for OT, which is a valid fast optimal transport metric in an unsupervised shape matching framework. This unsupervised framework integrates functional map regularizers with a novel OT-based loss derived from SWD, enhancing feature alignment between shapes treated as discrete probability measures. We also introduce an adaptive refinement process utilizing entropy regularized OT, further refining feature alignments for accurate point-to-point correspondences. Our method demonstrates superior performance in non-rigid shape matching, including near-isometric and non-isometric scenarios, and excels in downstream tasks like segmentation transfer. The empirical results on diverse datasets highlight our framework's effectiveness and generalization capabilities, setting new standards in non-rigid shape matching with efficient OT metrics and an adaptive refinement module.
Natural language processing research has begun to embrace the notion of annotator subjectivity, motivated by variations in labelling. This approach understands each annotator's view as valid, which can be highly suitable for tasks that embed subjectivity, e.g., sentiment analysis. However, this construction may be inappropriate for tasks such as hate speech detection, as it affords equal validity to all positions on e.g., sexism or racism. We argue that the conflation of hate and offence can invalidate findings on hate speech, and call for future work to be situated in theory, disentangling hate from its orthogonal concept, offence.
LLMs are widely used in complex AI applications. These applications underscore the need for LLM outputs to adhere to a specific format, for their integration with other components in the systems. Typically the format rules e.g., for data serialization formats such as JSON, YAML, or Code in Programming Language are expressed as context-free grammar (CFG). Due to the hallucinations and unreliability of LLMs, instructing LLMs to adhere to specified syntax becomes an increasingly important challenge. We present SynCode, a novel framework for efficient and general syntactical decoding with LLMs, to address this challenge. SynCode ensures soundness and completeness with respect to the CFG of a formal language, effectively retaining valid tokens while filtering out invalid ones. SynCode uses an offline-constructed, efficient lookup table, the DFA mask store, derived from the DFA of the language's grammar for efficient generation. SynCode seamlessly integrates with any language defined by CFG, as evidenced by experiments focusing on generating JSON, Python, and Go outputs. Our experiments evaluating the effectiveness of SynCode for JSON generation demonstrate that SynCode eliminates all syntax errors and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our results underscore how SynCode significantly reduces 96.07% of syntax errors in generated Python and Go code, showcasing its substantial impact on enhancing syntactical precision in LLM generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/uiuc-focal-lab/syncode
Automatically generating feedback via large language models (LLMs) in intelligent tutoring systems and online learning platforms has the potential to improve the learning outcomes of many students. However, both feedback generation and evaluation are challenging: feedback content has to be valid especially in subjects like math, which requires models to understand the problem, the solution, and where the student's error lies. Feedback also has to be pedagogically valid to reflect effective tutoring strategies, such as explaining possible misconceptions and encouraging the student, among other desirable features. In this work, we address both problems of automatically generating and evaluating feedback while considering both correctness and alignment. First, we propose a rubric for evaluating math feedback and show that GPT-4 is able to effectively use it to annotate human-written and LLM-generated feedback. Second, we propose a framework for feedback generation that optimizes both correctness and alignment using reinforcement learning (RL). Specifically, we use GPT-4's annotations to create preferences over feedback pairs in an augmented dataset for training via direct preference optimization (DPO). We show that our methods significantly increase the correctness and alignment of generated feedback with Llama 2, an open-source LLM, qualitatively analyze our generation and evaluation systems using case studies, and outline several areas for future work.
There is substantial interest in the use of machine learning (ML)-based techniques throughout the electronic computer-aided design (CAD) flow, particularly methods based on deep learning. However, while deep learning methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in several applications, recent work has demonstrated that neural networks are generally vulnerable to small, carefully chosen perturbations of their input (e.g. a single pixel change in an image). In this work, we investigate robustness in the context of ML-based EDA tools -- particularly for congestion prediction. As far as we are aware, we are the first to explore this concept in the context of ML-based EDA. We first describe a novel notion of imperceptibility designed specifically for VLSI layout problems defined on netlists and cell placements. Our definition of imperceptibility is characterized by a guarantee that a perturbation to a layout will not alter its global routing. We then demonstrate that state-of-the-art CNN and GNN-based congestion models exhibit brittleness to imperceptible perturbations. Namely, we show that when a small number of cells (e.g. 1%-5% of cells) have their positions shifted such that a measure of global congestion is guaranteed to remain unaffected (e.g. 1% of the design adversarially shifted by 0.001% of the layout space results in a predicted decrease in congestion of up to 90%, while no change in congestion is implied by the perturbation). In other words, the quality of a predictor can be made arbitrarily poor (i.e. can be made to predict that a design is "congestion-free") for an arbitrary input layout. Next, we describe a simple technique to train predictors that improves robustness to these perturbations. Our work indicates that CAD engineers should be cautious when integrating neural network-based mechanisms in EDA flows to ensure robust and high-quality results.
Defeasible reasoning is a kind of reasoning where some generalisations may not be valid in all circumstances, that is general conclusions may fail in some cases. Various formalisms have been developed to model this kind of reasoning, which is characteristic of common-sense contexts. However, it is not easy for a modeller to choose among these systems the one that better fits its domain from an ontological point of view. In this paper we first propose a framework based on the notions of exceptionality and defeasibility in order to be able to compare formalisms and reveal their ontological commitments. Then, we apply this framework to compare four systems, showing the differences that may occur from an ontological perspective.
A representative researcher has repeated opportunities for empirical research. To process findings, she must impose an "identifying assumption." She conducts research when the assumption is sufficiently plausible (taking into account both current beliefs and the quality of the opportunity), and updates beliefs as if the assumption were perfectly valid. We study the dynamics of this learning process. While the rate of research cannot always increase over time, research slowdown is possible. We characterize environments in which the rate is constant. Long-run beliefs can exhibit history-dependence and "false certitude." We apply the model to stylized examples of empirical methodologies: experiments, various causal-inference techniques, and "calibration."
Rationales in the form of manually annotated input spans usually serve as ground truth when evaluating explainability methods in NLP. They are, however, time-consuming and often biased by the annotation process. In this paper, we debate whether human gaze, in the form of webcam-based eye-tracking recordings, poses a valid alternative when evaluating importance scores. We evaluate the additional information provided by gaze data, such as total reading times, gaze entropy, and decoding accuracy with respect to human rationale annotations. We compare WebQAmGaze, a multilingual dataset for information-seeking QA, with attention and explainability-based importance scores for 4 different multilingual Transformer-based language models (mBERT, distil-mBERT, XLMR, and XLMR-L) and 3 languages (English, Spanish, and German). Our pipeline can easily be applied to other tasks and languages. Our findings suggest that gaze data offers valuable linguistic insights that could be leveraged to infer task difficulty and further show a comparable ranking of explainability methods to that of human rationales.
Multi-objective optimization problems can be found in many real-world applications, where the objectives often conflict each other and cannot be optimized by a single solution. In the past few decades, numerous methods have been proposed to find Pareto solutions that represent optimal trade-offs among the objectives for a given problem. However, these existing methods could have high computational complexity or may not have good theoretical properties for solving a general differentiable multi-objective optimization problem. In this work, by leveraging the smooth optimization technique, we propose a lightweight and efficient smooth Tchebycheff scalarization approach for gradient-based multi-objective optimization. It has good theoretical properties for finding all Pareto solutions with valid trade-off preferences, while enjoying significantly lower computational complexity compared to other methods. Experimental results on various real-world application problems fully demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.
Although 3D shape matching and interpolation are highly interrelated, they are often studied separately and applied sequentially to relate different 3D shapes, thus resulting in sub-optimal performance. In this work we present a unified framework to predict both point-wise correspondences and shape interpolation between 3D shapes. To this end, we combine the deep functional map framework with classical surface deformation models to map shapes in both spectral and spatial domains. On the one hand, by incorporating spatial maps, our method obtains more accurate and smooth point-wise correspondences compared to previous functional map methods for shape matching. On the other hand, by introducing spectral maps, our method gets rid of commonly used but computationally expensive geodesic distance constraints that are only valid for near-isometric shape deformations. Furthermore, we propose a novel test-time adaptation scheme to capture both pose-dominant and shape-dominant deformations. Using different challenging datasets, we demonstrate that our method outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods for both shape matching and interpolation, even compared to supervised approaches.
In the European context, both the EU AI Act proposal and the draft Standardisation Request on safe and trustworthy AI link standardisation to fundamental rights. However, these texts do not provide any guidelines that specify and detail the relationship between AI standards and fundamental rights, its meaning or implication. This chapter aims to clarify this critical regulatory blind spot. The main issue tackled is whether the adoption of AI harmonised standards, based on the future AI Act, should take into account fundamental rights. In our view, the response is yes. The high risks posed by certain AI systems relate in particular to infringements of fundamental rights. Therefore, mitigating such risks involves fundamental rights considerations and this is what future harmonised standards should reflect. At the same time, valid criticisms of the European standardisation process have to be addressed. Finally, the practical incorporation of fundamental rights considerations in the ongoing European standardisation of AI systems is discussed.
This paper introduces a quasi-Bayesian method that integrates frequentist nonparametric estimation with Bayesian inference in a two-stage process. Applied to an endogenous discrete choice model, the approach first uses kernel or sieve estimators to estimate the control function nonparametrically, followed by Bayesian methods to estimate the structural parameters. This combination leverages the advantages of both frequentist tractability for nonparametric estimation and Bayesian computational efficiency for complicated structural models. We analyze the asymptotic properties of the resulting quasi-posterior distribution, finding that its mean provides a consistent estimator for the parameters of interest, although its quantiles do not yield valid confidence intervals. However, bootstrapping the quasi-posterior mean accounts for the estimation uncertainty from the first stage, thereby producing asymptotically valid confidence intervals.