We are interested in probabilistic prediction in online settings in which data does not follow a probability distribution. Our work seeks to achieve two goals: (1) producing valid probabilities that accurately reflect model confidence; and (2) ensuring that traditional notions of performance (e.g., high accuracy) still hold. We introduce online algorithms guaranteed to achieve these goals on arbitrary streams of data points, including data chosen by an adversary. Specifically, our algorithms produce forecasts that are (1) calibrated -- i.e., an 80% confidence interval contains the true outcome 80% of the time -- and (2) have low regret relative to a user-specified baseline model. We implement a post-hoc recalibration strategy that provably achieves these goals in regression; previous algorithms applied to classification or achieved (1) but not (2). In the context of Bayesian optimization, an online model-based decision-making task in which the data distribution shifts over time, our method yields accelerated convergence to improved optima.
This paper shows that the heterogeneity in neuronal and synaptic dynamics reduces the spiking activity of a Recurrent Spiking Neural Network (RSNN) while improving prediction performance, enabling spike-efficient (unsupervised) learning. We analytically show that the diversity in neurons' integration/relaxation dynamics improves an RSNN's ability to learn more distinct input patterns (higher memory capacity), leading to improved classification and prediction performance. We further prove that heterogeneous Spike-Timing-Dependent-Plasticity (STDP) dynamics of synapses reduce spiking activity but preserve memory capacity. The analytical results motivate Heterogeneous RSNN design using Bayesian optimization to determine heterogeneity in neurons and synapses to improve $\mathcal{E}$, defined as the ratio of spiking activity and memory capacity. The empirical results on time series classification and prediction tasks show that optimized HRSNN increases performance and reduces spiking activity compared to a homogeneous RSNN.
One of the most critical issues in machine learning is the selection of appropriate hyper parameters for training models. Machine learning models may be able to reach the best training performance and may increase the ability to generalize using hyper parameter optimization (HPO) techniques. HPO is a popular topic that artificial intelligence studies have focused on recently and has attracted increasing interest. While the traditional methods developed for HPO include exhaustive search, grid search, random search, and Bayesian optimization; meta-heuristic algorithms are also employed as more advanced methods. Meta-heuristic algorithms search for the solution space where the solutions converge to the best combination to solve a specific problem. These algorithms test various scenarios and evaluate the results to select the best-performing combinations. In this study, classical methods, such as grid, random search and Bayesian optimization, and population-based algorithms, such as genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization, are discussed in terms of the HPO. The use of related search algorithms is explained together with Python programming codes developed on packages such as Scikit-learn, Sklearn Genetic, and Optuna. The performance of the search algorithms is compared on a sample data set, and according to the results, the particle swarm optimization algorithm has outperformed the other algorithms.
Classical problems in computational physics such as data-driven forecasting and signal reconstruction from sparse sensors have recently seen an explosion in deep neural network (DNN) based algorithmic approaches. However, most DNN models do not provide uncertainty estimates, which are crucial for establishing the trustworthiness of these techniques in downstream decision making tasks and scenarios. In recent years, ensemble-based methods have achieved significant success for the uncertainty quantification in DNNs on a number of benchmark problems. However, their performance on real-world applications remains under-explored. In this work, we present an automated approach to DNN discovery and demonstrate how this may also be utilized for ensemble-based uncertainty quantification. Specifically, we propose the use of a scalable neural and hyperparameter architecture search for discovering an ensemble of DNN models for complex dynamical systems. We highlight how the proposed method not only discovers high-performing neural network ensembles for our tasks, but also quantifies uncertainty seamlessly. This is achieved by using genetic algorithms and Bayesian optimization for sampling the search space of neural network architectures and hyperparameters. Subsequently, a model selection approach is used to identify candidate models for an ensemble set construction. Afterwards, a variance decomposition approach is used to estimate the uncertainty of the predictions from the ensemble. We demonstrate the feasibility of this framework for two tasks - forecasting from historical data and flow reconstruction from sparse sensors for the sea-surface temperature. We demonstrate superior performance from the ensemble in contrast with individual high-performing models and other benchmarks.
Data-driven materials design often encounters challenges where systems require or possess qualitative (categorical) information. Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are an example of such material systems. The representation of MOFs through different building blocks makes it a challenge for designers to incorporate qualitative information into design optimization. Furthermore, the large number of potential building blocks leads to a combinatorial challenge, with millions of possible MOFs that could be explored through time consuming physics-based approaches. In this work, we integrated Latent Variable Gaussian Process (LVGP) and Multi-Objective Batch-Bayesian Optimization (MOBBO) to identify top-performing MOFs adaptively, autonomously, and efficiently without any human intervention. Our approach provides three main advantages: (i) no specific physical descriptors are required and only building blocks that construct the MOFs are used in global optimization through qualitative representations, (ii) the method is application and property independent, and (iii) the latent variable approach provides an interpretable model of qualitative building blocks with physical justification. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we considered a design space with more than 47,000 MOF candidates. By searching only ~1% of the design space, LVGP-MOBBO was able to identify all MOFs on the Pareto front and more than 97% of the 50 top-performing designs for the CO$_2$ working capacity and CO$_2$/N$_2$ selectivity properties. Finally, we compared our approach with the Random Forest algorithm and demonstrated its efficiency, interpretability, and robustness.
Bayesian Optimization (BO) links Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates with sequential design toward optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Example design heuristics, or so-called acquisition functions, like expected improvement (EI), balance exploration and exploitation to furnish global solutions under stringent evaluation budgets. However, they fall short when solving for robust optima, meaning a preference for solutions in a wider domain of attraction. Robust solutions are useful when inputs are imprecisely specified, or where a series of solutions is desired. A common mathematical programming technique in such settings involves an adversarial objective, biasing a local solver away from ``sharp'' troughs. Here we propose a surrogate modeling and active learning technique called robust expected improvement (REI) that ports adversarial methodology into the BO/GP framework. After describing the methods, we illustrate and draw comparisons to several competitors on benchmark synthetic exercises and real problems of varying complexity.
We present Trieste, an open-source Python package for Bayesian optimization and active learning benefiting from the scalability and efficiency of TensorFlow. Our library enables the plug-and-play of popular TensorFlow-based models within sequential decision-making loops, e.g. Gaussian processes from GPflow or GPflux, or neural networks from Keras. This modular mindset is central to the package and extends to our acquisition functions and the internal dynamics of the decision-making loop, both of which can be tailored and extended by researchers or engineers when tackling custom use cases. Trieste is a research-friendly and production-ready toolkit backed by a comprehensive test suite, extensive documentation, and available at https://github.com/secondmind-labs/trieste.
Bayesian optimization (BO) is widely used to optimize expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions.BO first builds a surrogate model to represent the objective function and assesses its uncertainty. It then decides where to sample by maximizing an acquisition function (AF) based on the surrogate model. However, when dealing with high-dimensional problems, finding the global maximum of the AF becomes increasingly challenging. In such cases, the initialization of the AF maximizer plays a pivotal role, as an inadequate setup can severely hinder the effectiveness of the AF. This paper investigates a largely understudied problem concerning the impact of AF maximizer initialization on exploiting AFs' capability. Our large-scale empirical study shows that the widely used random initialization strategy often fails to harness the potential of an AF. In light of this, we propose a better initialization approach by employing multiple heuristic optimizers to leverage the historical data of black-box optimization to generate initial points for the AF maximize. We evaluate our approach with a range of heavily studied synthetic functions and real-world applications. Experimental results show that our techniques, while simple, can significantly enhance the standard BO and outperform state-of-the-art methods by a large margin in most test cases.
Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment. Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques are known to be effective in tackling global optimization problems using a relatively small number objective function evaluations, but their performance suffers when dealing with high-dimensional outputs. To overcome the major challenge of dimensionality, here we propose a deep learning framework for BO and sequential decision making based on bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors. Using appropriate architecture choices, we show that the proposed framework can approximate functional relationships between design variables and quantities of interest, even in cases where the latter take values in high-dimensional vector spaces or even infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the context of BO, we augmented the proposed probabilistic surrogates with re-parameterized Monte Carlo approximations of multiple-point (parallel) acquisition functions, as well as methodological extensions for accommodating black-box constraints and multi-fidelity information sources. We test the proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods for BO and demonstrate superior performance across several challenging tasks with high-dimensional outputs, including a constrained multi-fidelity optimization task involving shape optimization of rotor blades in turbo-machinery.
A wide spectrum of design and decision problems, including parameter tuning, A/B testing and drug design, intrinsically are instances of black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful tool that models and optimizes such expensive "black-box" functions. However, at the beginning of optimization, vanilla Bayesian optimization methods often suffer from slow convergence issue due to inaccurate modeling based on few trials. To address this issue, researchers in the BO community propose to incorporate the spirit of transfer learning to accelerate optimization process, which could borrow strength from the past tasks (source tasks) to accelerate the current optimization problem (target task). This survey paper first summarizes transfer learning methods for Bayesian optimization from four perspectives: initial points design, search space design, surrogate model, and acquisition function. Then it highlights its methodological aspects and technical details for each approach. Finally, it showcases a wide range of applications and proposes promising future directions.
Distributed data analytic engines like Spark are common choices to process massive data in industry. However, the performance of Spark SQL highly depends on the choice of configurations, where the optimal ones vary with the executed workloads. Among various alternatives for Spark SQL tuning, Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular framework that finds near-optimal configurations given sufficient budget, but it suffers from the re-optimization issue and is not practical in real production. When applying transfer learning to accelerate the tuning process, we notice two domain-specific challenges: 1) most previous work focus on transferring tuning history, while expert knowledge from Spark engineers is of great potential to improve the tuning performance but is not well studied so far; 2) history tasks should be carefully utilized, where using dissimilar ones lead to a deteriorated performance in production. In this paper, we present Rover, a deployed online Spark SQL tuning service for efficient and safe search on industrial workloads. To address the challenges, we propose generalized transfer learning to boost the tuning performance based on external knowledge, including expert-assisted Bayesian optimization and controlled history transfer. Experiments on public benchmarks and real-world tasks show the superiority of Rover over competitive baselines. Notably, Rover saves an average of 50.1% of the memory cost on 12k real-world Spark SQL tasks in 20 iterations, among which 76.2% of the tasks achieve a significant memory reduction of over 60%.
The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameters optimization (CASH) problem is one of the fundamental problems in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). Motivated by the success of ensemble learning, recent AutoML systems build post-hoc ensembles to output the final predictions instead of using the best single learner. However, while most CASH methods focus on searching for a single learner with the best performance, they neglect the diversity among base learners (i.e., they may suggest similar configurations to previously evaluated ones), which is also a crucial consideration when building an ensemble. To tackle this issue and further enhance the ensemble performance, we propose DivBO, a diversity-aware framework to inject explicit search of diversity into the CASH problems. In the framework, we propose to use a diversity surrogate to predict the pair-wise diversity of two unseen configurations. Furthermore, we introduce a temporary pool and a weighted acquisition function to guide the search of both performance and diversity based on Bayesian optimization. Empirical results on 15 public datasets show that DivBO achieves the best average ranks (1.82 and 1.73) on both validation and test errors among 10 compared methods, including post-hoc designs in recent AutoML systems and state-of-the-art baselines for ensemble learning on CASH problems.
The use of Agent-Based and Activity-Based modeling in transportation is rising due to the capability of addressing complex applications such as disruptive trends (e.g., remote working and automation) or the design and assessment of disaggregated management strategies. Still, the broad adoption of large-scale disaggregate models is not materializing due to the inherently high complexity and computational needs. Activity-based models focused on behavioral theory, for example, may involve hundreds of parameters that need to be calibrated to match the detailed socio-economical characteristics of the population for any case study. This paper tackles this issue by proposing a novel Bayesian Optimization approach incorporating a surrogate model in the form of an improved Random Forest, designed to automate the calibration process of the behavioral parameters. The proposed method is tested on a case study for the city of Tallinn, Estonia, where the model to be calibrated consists of 477 behavioral parameters, using the SimMobility MT software. Satisfactory performance is achieved in the major indicators defined for the calibration process: the error for the overall number of trips is equal to 4% and the average error in the OD matrix is 15.92 vehicles per day.
Latent Space Bayesian Optimization (LSBO) combines generative models, typically Variational Autoencoders (VAE), with Bayesian Optimization (BO) to generate de-novo objects of interest. However, LSBO faces challenges due to the mismatch between the objectives of BO and VAE, resulting in poor exploration capabilities. In this paper, we propose novel contributions to enhance LSBO efficiency and overcome this challenge. We first introduce the concept of latent consistency/inconsistency as a crucial problem in LSBO, arising from the VAE-BO mismatch. To address this, we propose the Latent Consistent Aware-Acquisition Function (LCA-AF) that leverages consistent points in LSBO. Additionally, we present LCA-VAE, a novel VAE method that creates a latent space with increased consistent points through data augmentation in latent space and penalization of latent inconsistencies. Combining LCA-VAE and LCA-AF, we develop LCA-LSBO. Our approach achieves high sample-efficiency and effective exploration, emphasizing the significance of addressing latent consistency through the novel incorporation of data augmentation in latent space within LCA-VAE in LSBO. We showcase the performance of our proposal via de-novo image generation and de-novo chemical design tasks.
We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.
Multi-objective Bayesian optimization aims to find the Pareto front of trade-offs between a set of expensive objectives while collecting as few samples as possible. In some cases, it is possible to evaluate the objectives separately, and a different latency or evaluation cost can be associated with each objective. This decoupling of the objectives presents an opportunity to learn the Pareto front faster by avoiding unnecessary, expensive evaluations. We propose a scalarization based knowledge gradient acquisition function which accounts for the different evaluation costs of the objectives. We prove asymptotic consistency of the estimator of the optimum for an arbitrary, D-dimensional, real compact search space and show empirically that the algorithm performs comparably with the state of the art and significantly outperforms versions which always evaluate both objectives.
We study the problem of performance optimization of closed-loop control systems with unmodeled dynamics. Bayesian optimization (BO) has been demonstrated to be effective for improving closed-loop performance by automatically tuning controller gains or reference setpoints in a model-free manner. However, BO methods have rarely been tested on dynamical systems with unmodeled constraints and time-varying ambient conditions. In this paper, we propose a violation-aware contextual BO algorithm (VACBO) that optimizes closed-loop performance while simultaneously learning constraint-feasible solutions under time-varying ambient conditions. Unlike classical constrained BO methods which allow unlimited constraint violations, or 'safe' BO algorithms that are conservative and try to operate with near-zero violations, we allow budgeted constraint violations to improve constraint learning and accelerate optimization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed VACBO method for energy minimization of industrial vapor compression systems under time-varying ambient temperature and humidity.
Pin fins are imperative in the cooling of turbine blades. The designs of pin fins, therefore, have seen significant research in the past. With the developments in metal additive manufacturing, novel design approaches toward complex geometries are now feasible. To that end, this article presents a Bayesian optimization approach for designing inline pins that can achieve low pressure loss. The pin-fin shape is defined using featurized (parametrized) piecewise cubic splines in 2D. The complexity of the shape is dependent on the number of splines used for the analysis. From a method development perspective, the study is performed using three splines. Owing to this piece-wise modeling, a unique pin fin design is defined using five features. After specifying the design, a computational fluid dynamics-based model is developed that computes the pressure drop during the flow. Bayesian optimization is carried out on a Gaussian processes-based surrogate to obtain an optimal combination of pin-fin features to minimize the pressure drop. The results show that the optimization tends to approach an aerodynamic design leading to low pressure drop corroborating with the existing knowledge. Furthermore, multiple iterations of optimizations are conducted with varying degree of input data. The results reveal that a convergence to similar optimal design is achieved with a minimum of just twenty five initial design-of-experiments data points for the surrogate. Sensitivity analysis shows that the distance between the rows of the pin fins is the most dominant feature influencing the pressure drop. In summary, the newly developed automated framework demonstrates remarkable capabilities in designing pin fins with superior performance characteristics.
Batch Bayesian optimisation and Bayesian quadrature have been shown to be sample-efficient methods of performing optimisation and quadrature where expensive-to-evaluate objective functions can be queried in parallel. However, current methods do not scale to large batch sizes -- a frequent desideratum in practice (e.g. drug discovery or simulation-based inference). We present a novel algorithm, SOBER, which permits scalable and diversified batch global optimisation and quadrature with arbitrary acquisition functions and kernels over discrete and mixed spaces. The key to our approach is to reformulate batch selection for global optimisation as a quadrature problem, which relaxes acquisition function maximisation (non-convex) to kernel recombination (convex). Bridging global optimisation and quadrature can efficiently solve both tasks by balancing the merits of exploitative Bayesian optimisation and explorative Bayesian quadrature. We show that SOBER outperforms 11 competitive baselines on 12 synthetic and diverse real-world tasks.
In this study, we propose a novel multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) method to efficiently identify the Pareto front (PF) defined by risk measures for black-box functions under the presence of input uncertainty (IU). Existing BO methods for Pareto optimization in the presence of IU are risk-specific or without theoretical guarantees, whereas our proposed method addresses general risk measures and has theoretical guarantees. The basic idea of the proposed method is to assume a Gaussian process (GP) model for the black-box function and to construct high-probability bounding boxes for the risk measures using the GP model. Furthermore, in order to reduce the uncertainty of non-dominated bounding boxes, we propose a method of selecting the next evaluation point using a maximin distance defined by the maximum value of a quasi distance based on bounding boxes. As theoretical analysis, we prove that the algorithm can return an arbitrary-accurate solution in a finite number of iterations with high probability, for various risk measures such as Bayes risk, worst-case risk, and value-at-risk. We also give a theoretical analysis that takes into account approximation errors because there exist non-negligible approximation errors (e.g., finite approximation of PFs and sampling-based approximation of bounding boxes) in practice. We confirm that the proposed method outperforms compared with existing methods not only in the setting with IU but also in the setting of ordinary MOBO through numerical experiments.