In recent years, methods for Bayesian inference have been widely used in many different problems in physics where detection and characterization are necessary. Data analysis in gravitational-wave astronomy is a prime example of such a case. Bayesian inference has been very successful because this technique provides a representation of the parameters as a posterior probability distribution, with uncertainties informed by the precision of the experimental measurements. During the last couple of decades, many specific advances have been proposed and employed in order to solve a large variety of different problems. In this work, we present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that integrates many of those concepts into a single MCMC package. For this purpose, we have built {\tt Eryn}, a user-friendly and multipurpose toolbox for Bayesian inference, which can be utilized for solving parameter estimation and model selection problems, ranging from simple inference questions, to those with large-scale model variation requiring trans-dimensional MCMC methods, like the LISA global fit problem. In this paper, we describe this sampler package and illustrate its capabilities on a variety of use cases.
Transformer models have achieved profound success in prediction tasks in a wide range of applications in natural language processing, speech recognition and computer vision. Extending Transformer's success to safety-critical domains requires calibrated uncertainty estimation which remains under-explored. To address this, we propose Sparse Gaussian Process attention (SGPA), which performs Bayesian inference directly in the output space of multi-head attention blocks (MHAs) in transformer to calibrate its uncertainty. It replaces the scaled dot-product operation with a valid symmetric kernel and uses sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) techniques to approximate the posterior processes of MHA outputs. Empirically, on a suite of prediction tasks on text, images and graphs, SGPA-based Transformers achieve competitive predictive accuracy, while noticeably improving both in-distribution calibration and out-of-distribution robustness and detection.
The analytic inference, e.g. predictive distribution being in closed form, may be an appealing benefit for machine learning practitioners when they treat wide neural networks as Gaussian process in Bayesian setting. The realistic widths, however, are finite and cause weak deviation from the Gaussianity under which partial marginalization of random variables in a model is straightforward. On the basis of multivariate Edgeworth expansion, we propose a non-Gaussian distribution in differential form to model a finite set of outputs from a random neural network, and derive the corresponding marginal and conditional properties. Thus, we are able to derive the non-Gaussian posterior distribution in Bayesian regression task. In addition, in the bottlenecked deep neural networks, a weight space representation of deep Gaussian process, the non-Gaussianity is investigated through the marginal kernel.
In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability of posterior measures in relation to perturbations in the likelihood potential and the prior measure. We present new stability results using a family of integral probability metrics (divergences) akin to dual problems that arise in optimal transport. Our results stand out from previous works in three directions: (1) We construct new families of integral probability metrics that are adapted to the problem at hand; (2) These new metrics allow us to study both likelihood and prior perturbations in a convenient way; and (3) our analysis accommodates likelihood potentials that are only locally Lipschitz, making them applicable to a wide range of nonlinear inverse problems. Our theoretical findings are further reinforced through specific and novel examples where the approximation rates of posterior measures are obtained for different types of perturbations and provide a path towards the convergence analysis of recently adapted machine learning techniques for Bayesian inverse problems such as data-driven priors and neural network surrogates.
Semantic communications are expected to accomplish various semantic tasks with relatively less spectrum resource by exploiting the semantic feature of source data. To simultaneously serve both the data transmission and semantic tasks, joint data compression and semantic analysis has become pivotal issue in semantic communications. This paper proposes a deep separate source-channel coding (DSSCC) framework for the joint task and data oriented semantic communications (JTD-SC) and utilizes the variational autoencoder approach to solve the rate-distortion problem with semantic distortion. First, by analyzing the Bayesian model of the DSSCC framework, we derive a novel rate-distortion optimization problem via the Bayesian inference approach for general data distributions and semantic tasks. Next, for a typical application of joint image transmission and classification, we combine the variational autoencoder approach with a forward adaption scheme to effectively extract image features and adaptively learn the density information of the obtained features. Finally, an iterative training algorithm is proposed to tackle the overfitting issue of deep learning models. Simulation results reveal that the proposed scheme achieves better coding gain as well as data recovery and classification performance in most scenarios, compared to the classical compression schemes and the emerging deep joint source-channel schemes.
By approximating posterior distributions with weighted samples, particle filters (PFs) provide an efficient mechanism for solving non-linear sequential state estimation problems. While the effectiveness of particle filters has been recognised in various applications, their performance relies on the knowledge of dynamic models and measurement models, as well as the construction of effective proposal distributions. An emerging trend involves constructing components of particle filters using neural networks and optimising them by gradient descent, and such data-adaptive particle filtering approaches are often called differentiable particle filters. Due to the expressiveness of neural networks, differentiable particle filters are a promising computational tool for performing inference on sequential data in complex, high-dimensional tasks, such as vision-based robot localisation. In this paper, we review recent advances in differentiable particle filters and their applications. We place special emphasis on different design choices for key components of differentiable particle filters, including dynamic models, measurement models, proposal distributions, optimisation objectives, and differentiable resampling techniques.
We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high frequency trading data and deep learning. Bayesian inference via the Sequential Monte Carlo method is employed for statistical inference and forecasting. The new framework can jointly model the returns and realized volatility measures, has an excellent in-sample fit and superior predictive performance compared to several benchmark models, while being able to adapt well to the stylized facts in volatility. The performance of the new framework is tested using a wide range of metrics, from marginal likelihood, volatility forecasting, to tail risk forecasting and option pricing. We report on a comprehensive empirical study using 31 widely traded stock indices over a time period that includes COVID-19 pandemic.
The Gaia Data Release 3 (DR3), published in June 2022, delivers a diverse set of astrometric, photometric, and spectroscopic measurements for more than a billion stars. The wealth and complexity of the data makes traditional approaches for estimating stellar parameters for the full Gaia dataset almost prohibitive. We have explored different supervised learning methods for extracting basic stellar parameters as well as distances and line-of-sight extinctions, given spectro-photo-astrometric data (including also the new Gaia XP spectra). For training we use an enhanced high-quality dataset compiled from Gaia DR3 and ground-based spectroscopic survey data covering the whole sky and all Galactic components. We show that even with a simple neural-network architecture or tree-based algorithm (and in the absence of Gaia XP spectra), we succeed in predicting competitive results (compared to Bayesian isochrone fitting) down to faint magnitudes. We will present a new Gaia DR3 stellar-parameter catalogue obtained using the currently best-performing machine-learning algorithm for tabular data, XGBoost, in the near future.
Existing models to extract temporal relations between events lack a principled method to incorporate external knowledge. In this study, we introduce Bayesian-Trans, a Bayesian learning-based method that models the temporal relation representations as latent variables and infers their values via Bayesian inference and translational functions. Compared to conventional neural approaches, instead of performing point estimation to find the best set parameters, the proposed model infers the parameters' posterior distribution directly, enhancing the model's capability to encode and express uncertainty about the predictions. Experimental results on the three widely used datasets show that Bayesian-Trans outperforms existing approaches for event temporal relation extraction. We additionally present detailed analyses on uncertainty quantification, comparison of priors, and ablation studies, illustrating the benefits of the proposed approach.
Multi-function radars (MFRs) are sophisticated types of sensors with the capabilities of complex agile inter-pulse modulation implementation and dynamic work mode scheduling. The developments in MFRs pose great challenges to modern electronic reconnaissance systems or radar warning receivers for recognition and inference of MFR work modes. To address this issue, this paper proposes an online processing framework for parameter estimation and change point detection of MFR work modes. At first, this paper designed a fully-conjugate Bayesian non-parametric hidden Markov model with a designed prior distribution (agile BNP-HMM) to represent the MFR pulse agility characteristics. The proposed model allows fully-variational Bayesian inference. Then, the proposed framework is constructed by two main parts. The first part is the agile BNP-HMM model for automatically inferring the number of HMM hidden states and emission distribution of the corresponding hidden states. An estimation error lower bound on performance is derived and the proposed algorithm is shown to be close to the bound. The second part utilizes the streaming Bayesian updating to facilitate computation, and designed an online work mode change detection framework based upon a weighted sequential probability ratio test. We demonstrate that the proposed framework is consistently highly effective and robust to baseline methods on diverse simulated data-sets.
Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) were originally motivated (Kingma & Welling, 2014) as probabilistic generative models in which one performs approximate Bayesian inference. The proposal of $\beta$-VAEs (Higgins et al., 2017) breaks this interpretation and generalizes VAEs to application domains beyond generative modeling (e.g., representation learning, clustering, or lossy data compression) by introducing an objective function that allows practitioners to trade off between the information content ("bit rate") of the latent representation and the distortion of reconstructed data (Alemi et al., 2018). In this paper, we reconsider this rate/distortion trade-off in the context of hierarchical VAEs, i.e., VAEs with more than one layer of latent variables. We identify a general class of inference models for which one can split the rate into contributions from each layer, which can then be tuned independently. We derive theoretical bounds on the performance of downstream tasks as functions of the individual layers' rates and verify our theoretical findings in large-scale experiments. Our results provide guidance for practitioners on which region in rate-space to target for a given application.
In this work, we look at Score-based generative models (also called diffusion generative models) from a geometric perspective. From a new view point, we prove that both the forward and backward process of adding noise and generating from noise are Wasserstein gradient flow in the space of probability measures. We are the first to prove this connection. Our understanding of Score-based (and Diffusion) generative models have matured and become more complete by drawing ideas from different fields like Bayesian inference, control theory, stochastic differential equation and Schrodinger bridge. However, many open questions and challenges remain. One problem, for example, is how to decrease the sampling time? We demonstrate that looking from geometric perspective enables us to answer many of these questions and provide new interpretations to some known results. Furthermore, geometric perspective enables us to devise an intuitive geometric solution to the problem of faster sampling. By augmenting traditional score-based generative models with a projection step, we show that we can generate high quality images with significantly fewer sampling-steps.
To generalize across tasks, an agent should acquire knowledge from past tasks that facilitate adaptation and exploration in future tasks. We focus on the problem of in-context adaptation and exploration, where an agent only relies on context, i.e., history of states, actions and/or rewards, rather than gradient-based updates. Posterior sampling (extension of Thompson sampling) is a promising approach, but it requires Bayesian inference and dynamic programming, which often involve unknowns (e.g., a prior) and costly computations. To address these difficulties, we use a transformer to learn an inference process from training tasks and consider a hypothesis space of partial models, represented as small Markov decision processes that are cheap for dynamic programming. In our version of the Symbolic Alchemy benchmark, our method's adaptation speed and exploration-exploitation balance approach those of an exact posterior sampling oracle. We also show that even though partial models exclude relevant information from the environment, they can nevertheless lead to good policies.
We present Fortuna, an open-source library for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Fortuna supports a range of calibration techniques, such as conformal prediction that can be applied to any trained neural network to generate reliable uncertainty estimates, and scalable Bayesian inference methods that can be applied to Flax-based deep neural networks trained from scratch for improved uncertainty quantification and accuracy. By providing a coherent framework for advanced uncertainty quantification methods, Fortuna simplifies the process of benchmarking and helps practitioners build robust AI systems.
Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work is to investigate how far this interpretation can be realized by current sequence prediction models and training regimes. The focus is on piecewise stationary sources with unobserved switching-points, which arguably capture an important characteristic of natural language and action-observation sequences in partially observable environments. We show that various types of memory-based neural models, including Transformers, LSTMs, and RNNs can learn to accurately approximate known Bayes-optimal algorithms and behave as if performing Bayesian inference over the latent switching-points and the latent parameters governing the data distribution within each segment.
Although tissues are usually studied in isolation, this situation rarely occurs in biology, as cells, tissues, and organs, coexist and interact across scales to determine both shape and function. Here, we take a quantitative approach combining data from recent experiments, mathematical modelling, and Bayesian parameter inference, to describe the self-assembly of multiple epithelial sheets by growth and collision. We use two simple and well-studied continuum models, where cells move either randomly or following population pressure gradients. After suitable calibration, both models prove to be practically identifiable, and can reproduce the main features of single tissue expansions. However, our findings reveal that whenever tissue-tissue interactions become relevant, the random motion assumption can lead to unrealistic behaviour. Under this setting, a model accounting for population pressure from different cell populations is more appropriate and shows a better agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, we discuss how tissue shape and pressure affect multi-tissue collisions. Our work thus provides a systematic approach to quantify and predict complex tissue configurations with applications in the design of tissue composites and more generally in tissue engineering.
This paper considers an integrated sensing and communication system, where some radar targets also serve as communication scatterers. A location domain channel modeling method is proposed based on the position of targets and scatterers in the scattering environment, and the resulting radar and communication channels exhibit a two-dimensional (2-D) joint burst sparsity. We propose a joint scattering environment sensing and channel estimation scheme to enhance the target/scatterer localization and channel estimation performance simultaneously, where a spatially non-stationary Markov random field (MRF) model is proposed to capture the 2-D joint burst sparsity. An expectation maximization (EM) based method is designed to solve the joint estimation problem, where the E-step obtains the Bayesian estimation of the radar and communication channels and the M-step automatically learns the dynamic position grid and prior parameters in the MRF. However, the existing sparse Bayesian inference methods used in the E-step involve a high-complexity matrix inverse per iteration. Moreover, due to the complicated non-stationary MRF prior, the complexity of M-step is exponentially large. To address these difficulties, we propose an inverse-free variational Bayesian inference algorithm for the E-step and a low-complexity method based on pseudo-likelihood approximation for the M-step. In the simulations, the proposed scheme can achieve a better performance than the state-of-the-art method while reducing the computational overhead significantly.
Normalizing Flows (NF) are Generative models which are particularly robust and allow for exact sampling of the learned distribution. They however require the design of an invertible mapping, whose Jacobian determinant has to be computable. Recently introduced, Neural Hamiltonian Flows (NHF) are based on Hamiltonian dynamics-based Flows, which are continuous, volume-preserving and invertible and thus make for natural candidates for robust NF architectures. In particular, their similarity to classical Mechanics could lead to easier interpretability of the learned mapping. However, despite being Physics-inspired architectures, the originally introduced NHF architecture still poses a challenge to interpretability. For this reason, in this work, we introduce a fixed kinetic energy version of the NHF model. Inspired by physics, our approach improves interpretability and requires less parameters than previously proposed architectures. We then study the robustness of the NHF architectures to the choice of hyperparameters. We analyze the impact of the number of leapfrog steps, the integration time and the number of neurons per hidden layer, as well as the choice of prior distribution, on sampling a multimodal 2D mixture. The NHF architecture is robust to these choices, especially the fixed-kinetic energy model. Finally, we adapt NHF to the context of Bayesian inference and illustrate our method on sampling the posterior distribution of two cosmological parameters knowing type Ia supernovae observations.
Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) can overcome the problem of overconfidence that plagues traditional frequentist deep neural networks, and are hence considered to be a key enabler for reliable AI systems. However, conventional hardware realizations of BNNs are resource intensive, requiring the implementation of random number generators for synaptic sampling. Owing to their inherent stochasticity during programming and read operations, nanoscale memristive devices can be directly leveraged for sampling, without the need for additional hardware resources. In this paper, we introduce a novel Phase Change Memory (PCM)-based hardware implementation for BNNs with binary synapses. The proposed architecture consists of separate weight and noise planes, in which PCM cells are configured and operated to represent the nominal values of weights and to generate the required noise for sampling, respectively. Using experimentally observed PCM noise characteristics, for the exemplary Breast Cancer Dataset classification problem, we obtain hardware accuracy and expected calibration error matching that of an 8-bit fixed-point (FxP8) implementation, with projected savings of over 9$\times$ in terms of core area transistor count.
In practical compressed sensing (CS), the obtained measurements typically necessitate quantization to a limited number of bits prior to transmission or storage. This nonlinear quantization process poses significant recovery challenges, particularly with extreme coarse quantization such as 1-bit. Recently, an efficient algorithm called QCS-SGM was proposed for quantized CS (QCS) which utilizes score-based generative models (SGM) as an implicit prior. Due to the adeptness of SGM in capturing the intricate structures of natural signals, QCS-SGM substantially outperforms previous QCS methods. However, QCS-SGM is constrained to (approximately) row-orthogonal sensing matrices as the computation of the likelihood score becomes intractable otherwise. To address this limitation, we introduce an advanced variant of QCS-SGM, termed QCS-SGM+, capable of handling general matrices effectively. The key idea is a Bayesian inference perspective on the likelihood score computation, wherein expectation propagation is employed for its approximate computation. Extensive experiments are conducted, demonstrating the substantial superiority of QCS-SGM+ over QCS-SGM for general sensing matrices beyond mere row-orthogonality.