This paper proposes a pilot decoupling-based two-dimensional channel parameter estimation method for intelligent reflecting surface (IRS)-assisted networks. We exploit the combined effect of Terahertz sparse propagation and the geometrical structure of arrays deployed at the base station, the IRS, and the user equipment to develop a low-complexity channel parameter estimation method. By means of a new pilot design along the horizontal and vertical domains, the overall channel parameter estimation problem is decoupled into different domains. Furthermore, with this decoupling, it is possible to simultaneously sense/estimate the channel parameters and to communicate with the sensed node. Specifically, we derive two estimators by decoupling the global problem into sub-problems and exploiting the built-in tensor structure of the sensing/estimation problem by means of multiple rank-one approximations. The Cram\'er-Rao lower bound is derived to assess the performance of the proposed estimators. We show that the two proposed methods yield accurate parameter estimates and outperform state-of-the-art methods in terms of complexity. The tradeoffs between performance and complexity offered by the proposed methods are discussed and numerically assessed.
In this paper, a novel Koopman-type inverse operator for linear time-invariant non-minimum phase systems with stochastic disturbances is proposed. This operator employs functions of the desired output to directly calculate the input. Furthermore, it can be applied as a data-driven approach for systems with unknown parameters yet a known relative degree, which is a departure from the majority of existing data-driven methods that are only applicable to minimum phase systems. Based on this foundation, we use the Monte Carlo approach to develop an improved Koopman-type method for addressing the issue of inaccurate parameter estimation in data-driven systems with large disturbances. The simulation results justify the tracking accuracy of Koopman-type operator.
The heavy-tailed behavior of the generalized extreme-value distribution makes it a popular choice for modeling extreme events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, etc. However, estimating the distribution's parameters using conventional maximum likelihood methods can be computationally intensive, even for moderate-sized datasets. To overcome this limitation, we propose a computationally efficient, likelihood-free estimation method utilizing a neural network. Through an extensive simulation study, we demonstrate that the proposed neural network-based method provides Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameter estimates with comparable accuracy to the conventional maximum likelihood method but with a significant computational speedup. To account for estimation uncertainty, we utilize parametric bootstrapping, which is inherent in the trained network. Finally, we apply this method to 1000-year annual maximum temperature data from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) across North America for three atmospheric concentrations: 289 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (pre-industrial), 700 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$ (future conditions), and 1400 ppm $\mathrm{CO}_2$, and compare the results with those obtained using the maximum likelihood approach.
Understanding the parameter estimation of softmax gating Gaussian mixture of experts has remained a long-standing open problem in the literature. It is mainly due to three fundamental theoretical challenges associated with the softmax gating function: (i) the identifiability only up to the translation of parameters; (ii) the intrinsic interaction via partial differential equations between the softmax gating and the expert functions in the Gaussian density; (iii) the complex dependence between the numerator and denominator of the conditional density of softmax gating Gaussian mixture of experts. We resolve these challenges by proposing novel Voronoi loss functions among parameters and establishing the convergence rates of maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for solving parameter estimation in these models. When the true number of experts is unknown and over-specified, our findings show a connection between the convergence rate of the MLE and a solvability problem of a system of polynomial equations.
Mechanistic models are important tools to describe and understand biological processes. However, they typically rely on unknown parameters, the estimation of which can be challenging for large and complex systems. We present pyPESTO, a modular framework for systematic parameter estimation, with scalable algorithms for optimization and uncertainty quantification. While tailored to ordinary differential equation problems, pyPESTO is broadly applicable to black-box parameter estimation problems. Besides own implementations, it provides a unified interface to various popular simulation and inference methods. pyPESTO is implemented in Python, open-source under a 3-Clause BSD license. Code and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/icb-dcm/pypesto).
This work puts forth low-complexity Riemannian subspace descent algorithms for the minimization of functions over the symmetric positive definite (SPD) manifold. Different from the existing Riemannian gradient descent variants, the proposed approach utilizes carefully chosen subspaces that allow the update to be written as a product of the Cholesky factor of the iterate and a sparse matrix. The resulting updates avoid the costly matrix operations like matrix exponentiation and dense matrix multiplication, which are generally required in almost all other Riemannian optimization algorithms on SPD manifold. We further identify a broad class of functions, arising in diverse applications, such as kernel matrix learning, covariance estimation of Gaussian distributions, maximum likelihood parameter estimation of elliptically contoured distributions, and parameter estimation in Gaussian mixture model problems, over which the Riemannian gradients can be calculated efficiently. The proposed uni-directional and multi-directional Riemannian subspace descent variants incur per-iteration complexities of $O(n)$ and $O(n^2)$ respectively, as compared to the $O(n^3)$ or higher complexity incurred by all existing Riemannian gradient descent variants. The superior runtime and low per-iteration complexity of the proposed algorithms is also demonstrated via numerical tests on large-scale covariance estimation and matrix square root problems. MATLAB code implementation is publicly available on GitHub : https://github.com/yogeshd-iitk/subspace_descent_over_SPD_manifold
Big-data applications often involve a vast number of observations and features, creating new challenges for variable selection and parameter estimation. This paper presents a novel technique called ``slow kill,'' which utilizes nonconvex constrained optimization, adaptive $\ell_2$-shrinkage, and increasing learning rates. The fact that the problem size can decrease during the slow kill iterations makes it particularly effective for large-scale variable screening. The interaction between statistics and optimization provides valuable insights into controlling quantiles, stepsize, and shrinkage parameters in order to relax the regularity conditions required to achieve the desired level of statistical accuracy. Experimental results on real and synthetic data show that slow kill outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in various situations while being computationally efficient for large-scale data.
In general, a similarity threshold (i.e., a vigilance parameter) for a node learning process in Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART)-based algorithms has a significant impact on clustering performance. In addition, an edge deletion threshold in a topological clustering algorithm plays an important role in adaptively generating well-separated clusters during a self-organizing process. In this paper, we propose a new parameter-free ART-based topological clustering algorithm capable of continual learning by introducing parameter estimation methods. Experimental results with synthetic and real-world datasets show that the proposed algorithm has superior clustering performance to the state-of-the-art clustering algorithms without any parameter pre-specifications.
We introduce a new computational framework for estimating parameters in generalized generalized linear models (GGLM), a class of models that extends the popular generalized linear models (GLM) to account for dependencies among observations in spatio-temporal data. The proposed approach uses a monotone operator-based variational inequality method to overcome non-convexity in parameter estimation and provide guarantees for parameter recovery. The results can be applied to GLM and GGLM, focusing on spatio-temporal models. We also present online instance-based bounds using martingale concentrations inequalities. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm using numerical simulations and a real data example for wildfire incidents.
Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity. Crucially, this data is subject to measurement errors as well as uncertainties in the underlying system model. As a result, standard signal processing using autoregressive model estimators may be biased. We present a framework for autoregressive modelling that incorporates these uncertainties explicitly via an overparameterised loss function. To optimise this loss, we derive an algorithm that alternates between state and parameter estimation. Our work shows that the procedure is able to successfully denoise time series and successfully reconstruct system parameters. This new paradigm can be used in a multitude of applications in neuroscience such as brain-computer interface data analysis and better understanding of brain dynamics in diseases such as epilepsy.
Inverter-interfaced microgrids, owing to the lack of fault current, cannot be protected using traditional over-current protections, while admittance or differential relaying protection schemes are not practical to be implemented. Dynamic state estimation can track and predict power system transients and has been extensively investigated for setting-less protection. A novel real-time application of dynamic state estimation for protection is proposed in this paper, wherein parameter estimation and parallel processing is used to identify the state of the system. The implementation scheme has low process complexity and employs a data acquisition device and estimator that run on a general-purpose computer. This proposed implementation extends the state-of-the-art, under short-circuit conditions, to a real-time implementation with a lumped-load radial microgrid and a grid-forming inverter with current-limiting behavior.
Channel sounding is essential for the development of radio systems. One flexible strategy is the switched-array-based channel sounding, where antenna elements are activated at different time instants to measure the channel spatial characteristics. Although its hardware complexity is decreased due to fewer radio-frequency (RF) chains, sequentially switching the antenna elements can result in aliasing in the joint estimation of angles and Doppler frequencies of multipath components (MPCs). Therefore, pseudo-random switching has been proposed to mitigate such aliasing and increase estimation accuracy in both angular and Doppler domains. Nevertheless, the increased Doppler resolution could cause additional post-processing complexity of parameter estimation, which is relevant when the Doppler frequencies are not of interest, e.g., for spatial channel modeling. This paper proposes an improved hybrid sequential and random switching scheme. The primary purpose is to maintain the estimation accuracy of angles of MPCs while decreasing the resolution of Doppler frequencies for minimized complexity of channel parameter estimation. A simulated-annealing algorithm is exploited to obtain an optimized switching sequence. The effectiveness of the proposed scheme is also demonstrated with a realistic antenna array.
This study examines the use of a recurrent neural network for estimating the parameters of a Hawkes model based on high-frequency financial data, and subsequently, for computing volatility. Neural networks have shown promising results in various fields, and interest in finance is also growing. Our approach demonstrates significantly faster computational performance compared to traditional maximum likelihood estimation methods while yielding comparable accuracy in both simulation and empirical studies. Furthermore, we demonstrate the application of this method for real-time volatility measurement, enabling the continuous estimation of financial volatility as new price data keeps coming from the market.
The flexible duplex (FD) technique, including dynamic time-division duplex (D-TDD) and dynamic frequency-division duplex (D-FDD), is regarded as a promising solution to achieving a more flexible uplink/downlink transmission in 5G-Advanced or 6G mobile communication systems. However, it may introduce serious cross-link interference (CLI). For better mitigating the impact of CLI, we first present a more realistic base station (BS)-to-BS channel model incorporating the radio frequency (RF) chain characteristics, which exhibit a hardware-dependent nonlinear property, and hence the accuracy of conventional channel modelling is inadequate for CLI cancellation. Then, we propose a channel parameter estimation based polynomial CLI canceller and two machine learning (ML) based CLI cancellers that use the lightweight feedforward neural network (FNN). Our simulation results and analysis show that the ML based CLI cancellers achieve notable performance improvement and dramatic reduction of computational complexity, in comparison with the polynomial CLI canceller.
Modelling of the weak lensing of the CMB will be crucial to obtain correct cosmological parameter constraints from forthcoming precision CMB anisotropy observations. The lensing affects the power spectrum as well as inducing non-Gaussianities. We discuss the simulation of full sky CMB maps in the weak lensing approximation and describe a fast numerical code. The series expansion in the deflection angle cannot be used to simulate accurate CMB maps, so a pixel remapping must be used. For parameter estimation accounting for the change in the power spectrum but assuming Gaussianity is sufficient to obtain accurate results up to Planck sensitivity using current tools. A fuller analysis may be required to obtain accurate error estimates and for more sensitive observations. We demonstrate a simple full sky simulation and subsequent parameter estimation at Planck-like sensitivity. The lensed CMB simulation and parameter estimation codes are publicly available.
We propose a new method for high-dimensional semi-supervised learning problems based on the careful aggregation of the results of a low-dimensional procedure applied to many axis-aligned random projections of the data. Our primary goal is to identify important variables for distinguishing between the classes; existing low-dimensional methods can then be applied for final class assignment. Motivated by a generalized Rayleigh quotient, we score projections according to the traces of the estimated whitened between-class covariance matrices on the projected data. This enables us to assign an importance weight to each variable for a given projection, and to select our signal variables by aggregating these weights over high-scoring projections. Our theory shows that the resulting Sharp-SSL algorithm is able to recover the signal coordinates with high probability when we aggregate over sufficiently many random projections and when the base procedure estimates the whitened between-class covariance matrix sufficiently well. The Gaussian EM algorithm is a natural choice as a base procedure, and we provide a new analysis of its performance in semi-supervised settings that controls the parameter estimation error in terms of the proportion of labeled data in the sample. Numerical results on both simulated data and a real colon tumor dataset support the excellent empirical performance of the method.
Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used in various fields for modeling, prediction, and decision making. pgmpy is a python package that provides a collection of algorithms and tools to work with BNs and related models. It implements algorithms for structure learning, parameter estimation, approximate and exact inference, causal inference, and simulations. These implementations focus on modularity and easy extensibility to allow users to quickly modify/add to existing algorithms, or to implement new algorithms for different use cases. pgmpy is released under the MIT License; the source code is available at: https://github.com/pgmpy/pgmpy, and the documentation at: https://pgmpy.org.
In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter (TVP) vector error correction model (VECM) with heteroskedastic disturbances. We propose tools to carry out dynamic model specification in an automatic fashion. This involves using global-local priors, and postprocessing the parameters to achieve truly sparse solutions. Depending on the respective set of coefficients, we achieve this via minimizing auxiliary loss functions. Our two-step approach limits overfitting and reduces parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this framework to modeling European electricity prices. When considering daily electricity prices for different markets jointly, our model highlights the importance of explicitly addressing cointegration and nonlinearities. In a forecast exercise focusing on hourly prices for Germany, our approach yields competitive metrics of predictive accuracy.
In constrained parameter estimation, the classical constrained Cramer-Rao bound (CCRB) and the recent Lehmann-unbiased CCRB (LU-CCRB) are lower bounds on the performance of mean-unbiased and Lehmann-unbiased estimators, respectively. Both the CCRB and the LU-CCRB require differentiability of the likelihood function, which can be a restrictive assumption. Additionally, these bounds are local bounds that are inappropriate for predicting the threshold phenomena of the constrained maximum likelihood (CML) estimator. The constrained Barankin-type bound (CBTB) is a nonlocal mean-squared-error (MSE) lower bound for constrained parameter estimation that does not require differentiability of the likelihood function. However, this bound requires a restrictive mean-unbiasedness condition in the constrained set. In this work, we propose the Lehmann-unbiased CBTB (LU-CBTB) on the weighted MSE (WMSE). This bound does not require differentiability of the likelihood function and assumes uniform Lehmann-unbiasedness, which is less restrictive than the CBTB uniform mean-unbiasedness. We show that the LU-CBTB is tighter than or equal to the LU-CCRB and coincides with the CBTB for linear constraints. For nonlinear constraints the LU-CBTB and the CBTB are different and the LU-CBTB can be a lower bound on the WMSE of constrained estimators in cases, where the CBTB is not. In the simulations, we consider direction-of-arrival estimation of an unknown constant modulus discrete signal. In this case, the likelihood function is not differentiable and constrained Cramer-Rao-type bounds do not exist, while CBTBs exist. It is shown that the LU-CBTB better predicts the CML estimator performance than the CBTB, since the CML estimator is Lehmann-unbiased but not mean-unbiased.
Regime switching is ubiquitous in many complex dynamical systems with multiscale features, chaotic behavior, and extreme events. In this paper, a causation entropy boosting (CEBoosting) strategy is developed to facilitate the detection of regime switching and the discovery of the dynamics associated with the new regime via online model identification. The causation entropy, which can be efficiently calculated, provides a logic value of each candidate function in a pre-determined library. The reversal of one or a few such causation entropy indicators associated with the model calibrated for the current regime implies the detection of regime switching. Despite the short length of each batch formed by the sequential data, the accumulated value of causation entropy corresponding to a sequence of data batches leads to a robust indicator. With the detected rectification of the model structure, the subsequent parameter estimation becomes a quadratic optimization problem, which is solved using closed analytic formulae. Using the Lorenz 96 model, it is shown that the causation entropy indicator can be efficiently calculated, and the method applies to moderately large dimensional systems. The CEBoosting algorithm is also adaptive to the situation with partial observations. It is shown via a stochastic parameterized model that the CEBoosting strategy can be combined with data assimilation to identify regime switching triggered by the unobserved latent processes. In addition, the CEBoosting method is applied to a nonlinear paradigm model for topographic mean flow interaction, demonstrating the online detection of regime switching in the presence of strong intermittency and extreme events.