Bayesian inference has many advantages in decision making of agents (e.g. robotics/simulative agent) over a regular data-driven black-box neural network: Data-efficiency, generalization, interpretability, and safety where these advantages benefit directly/indirectly from the uncertainty quantification of Bayesian inference. However, there are few comprehensive reviews to summarize the progress of Bayesian inference on reinforcement learning (RL) for decision making to give researchers a systematic understanding. This paper focuses on combining Bayesian inference with RL that nowadays is an important approach in agent decision making. To be exact, this paper discusses the following five topics: 1) Bayesian methods that have potential for agent decision making. First basic Bayesian methods and models (Bayesian rule, Bayesian learning, and Bayesian conjugate models) are discussed followed by variational inference, Bayesian optimization, Bayesian deep learning, Bayesian active learning, Bayesian generative models, Bayesian meta-learning, and lifelong Bayesian learning. 2) Classical combinations of Bayesian methods with model-based RL (with approximation methods), model-free RL, and inverse RL. 3) Latest combinations of potential Bayesian methods with RL. 4) Analytical comparisons of methods that combine Bayesian methods with RL with respect to data-efficiency, generalization, interpretability, and safety. 5) In-depth discussions in six complex problem variants of RL, including unknown reward, partial-observability, multi-agent, multi-task, non-linear non-Gaussian, and hierarchical RL problems and the summary of how Bayesian methods work in the data collection, data processing and policy learning stages of RL to pave the way for better agent decision-making strategies.
Accurate channel state information (CSI) acquisition for massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems is essential for future mobile communication networks. Channel fingerprint (CF), also referred to as channel knowledge map, is a key enabler for intelligent environment-aware communication and can facilitate CSI acquisition. However, due to the cost limitations of practical sensing nodes and test vehicles, the resulting CF is typically coarse-grained, making it insufficient for wireless transceiver design. In this work, we introduce the concept of CF twins and design a conditional generative diffusion model (CGDM) with strong implicit prior learning capabilities as the computational core of the CF twin to establish the connection between coarse- and fine-grained CFs. Specifically, we employ a variational inference technique to derive the evidence lower bound (ELBO) for the log-marginal distribution of the observed fine-grained CF conditioned on the coarse-grained CF, enabling the CGDM to learn the complicated distribution of the target data. During the denoising neural network optimization, the coarse-grained CF is introduced as side information to accurately guide the conditioned generation of the CGDM. To make the proposed CGDM lightweight, we further leverage the additivity of network layers and introduce a one-shot pruning approach along with a multi-objective knowledge distillation technique. Experimental results show that the proposed approach exhibits significant improvement in reconstruction performance compared to the baselines. Additionally, zero-shot testing on reconstruction tasks with different magnification factors further demonstrates the scalability and generalization ability of the proposed approach.
Tensor decomposition is a fundamental tool for analyzing multi-dimensional data by learning low-rank factors to represent high-order interactions. While recent works on temporal tensor decomposition have made significant progress by incorporating continuous timestamps in latent factors, they still struggle with general tensor data with continuous indexes not only in the temporal mode but also in other modes, such as spatial coordinates in climate data. Moreover, the challenge of self-adapting model complexity is largely unexplored in functional temporal tensor models, with existing methods being inapplicable in this setting. To address these limitations, we propose functional \underline{C}omplexity-\underline{A}daptive \underline{T}emporal \underline{T}ensor d\underline{E}composition (\textsc{Catte}). Our approach encodes continuous spatial indexes as learnable Fourier features and employs neural ODEs in latent space to learn the temporal trajectories of factors. To enable automatic adaptation of model complexity, we introduce a sparsity-inducing prior over the factor trajectories. We develop an efficient variational inference scheme with an analytical evidence lower bound, enabling sampling-free optimization. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that \textsc{Catte} not only reveals the underlying ranks of functional temporal tensors but also significantly outperforms existing methods in prediction performance and robustness against noise.
Time series imputation is one of the most challenge problems and has broad applications in various fields like health care and the Internet of Things. Existing methods mainly aim to model the temporally latent dependencies and the generation process from the observed time series data. In real-world scenarios, different types of missing mechanisms, like MAR (Missing At Random), and MNAR (Missing Not At Random) can occur in time series data. However, existing methods often overlook the difference among the aforementioned missing mechanisms and use a single model for time series imputation, which can easily lead to misleading results due to mechanism mismatching. In this paper, we propose a framework for time series imputation problem by exploring Different Missing Mechanisms (DMM in short) and tailoring solutions accordingly. Specifically, we first analyze the data generation processes with temporal latent states and missing cause variables for different mechanisms. Sequentially, we model these generation processes via variational inference and estimate prior distributions of latent variables via normalizing flow-based neural architecture. Furthermore, we establish identifiability results under the nonlinear independent component analysis framework to show that latent variables are identifiable. Experimental results show that our method surpasses existing time series imputation techniques across various datasets with different missing mechanisms, demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world applications.
Backpropagation (BP) is the cornerstone of deep learning, but its reliance on global gradient synchronization limits scalability and imposes significant memory overhead. We propose Stochastic Variational Propagation (SVP), a scalable alternative that reframes training as hierarchical variational inference. SVP treats layer activations as latent variables and optimizes local Evidence Lower Bounds (ELBOs), enabling independent, local updates while preserving global coherence. However, directly applying KL divergence in layer-wise ELBOs risks inter-layer's representation collapse due to excessive compression. To prevent this, SVP projects activations into low-dimensional spaces via fixed random matrices, ensuring information preservation and representational diversity. Combined with a feature alignment loss for inter-layer consistency, SVP achieves competitive accuracy with BP across diverse architectures (MLPs, CNNs, Transformers) and datasets (MNIST to ImageNet), reduces memory usage by up to 4x, and significantly improves scalability. More broadly, SVP introduces a probabilistic perspective to deep representation learning, opening pathways toward more modular and interpretable neural network design.
This paper provides a formulation of the particle flow particle filter from the perspective of variational inference. We show that the transient density used to derive the particle flow particle filter follows a time-scaled trajectory of the Fisher-Rao gradient flow in the space of probability densities. The Fisher-Rao gradient flow is obtained as a continuous-time algorithm for variational inference, minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a variational density and the true posterior density.
We introduce FedGVI, a probabilistic Federated Learning (FL) framework that is robust to both prior and likelihood misspecification. FedGVI addresses limitations in both frequentist and Bayesian FL by providing unbiased predictions under model misspecification, with calibrated uncertainty quantification. Our approach generalises previous FL approaches, specifically Partitioned Variational Inference (Ashman et al., 2022), by allowing robust and conjugate updates, decreasing computational complexity at the clients. We offer theoretical analysis in terms of fixed-point convergence, optimality of the cavity distribution, and provable robustness to likelihood misspecification. Further, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of FedGVI in terms of improved robustness and predictive performance on multiple synthetic and real world classification data sets.
Integrating various data modalities brings valuable insights into underlying phenomena. Multimodal factor analysis (FA) uncovers shared axes of variation underlying different simple data modalities, where each sample is represented by a vector of features. However, FA is not suited for structured data modalities, such as text or single cell sequencing data, where multiple data points are measured per each sample and exhibit a clustering structure. To overcome this challenge, we introduce FACTM, a novel, multi-view and multi-structure Bayesian model that combines FA with correlated topic modeling and is optimized using variational inference. Additionally, we introduce a method for rotating latent factors to enhance interpretability with respect to binary features. On text and video benchmarks as well as real-world music and COVID-19 datasets, we demonstrate that FACTM outperforms other methods in identifying clusters in structured data, and integrating them with simple modalities via the inference of shared, interpretable factors.
We present Variational Self-Supervised Learning (VSSL), a novel framework that combines variational inference with self-supervised learning to enable efficient, decoder-free representation learning. Unlike traditional VAEs that rely on input reconstruction via a decoder, VSSL symmetrically couples two encoders with Gaussian outputs. A momentum-updated teacher network defines a dynamic, data-dependent prior, while the student encoder produces an approximate posterior from augmented views. The reconstruction term in the ELBO is replaced with a cross-view denoising objective, preserving the analytical tractability of Gaussian KL divergence. We further introduce cosine-based formulations of KL and log-likelihood terms to enhance semantic alignment in high-dimensional latent spaces. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet-100 show that VSSL achieves competitive or superior performance to leading self-supervised methods, including BYOL and MoCo V3. VSSL offers a scalable, probabilistically grounded approach to learning transferable representations without generative reconstruction, bridging the gap between variational modeling and modern self-supervised techniques.
Many domain experts do not have the time or training to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to create a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted average. This is justified an analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and variational inference. We show that this produces sensible predictions without the need to specify a formal model.
We address the problem of planning under uncertainty, where an agent must choose actions that not only achieve desired outcomes but also reduce uncertainty. Traditional methods often treat exploration and exploitation as separate objectives, lacking a unified inferential foundation. Active inference, grounded in the Free Energy Principle, provides such a foundation by minimizing Expected Free Energy (EFE), a cost function that combines utility with epistemic drives, such as ambiguity resolution and novelty seeking. However, the computational burden of EFE minimization had remained a significant obstacle to its scalability. In this paper, we show that EFE-based planning arises naturally from minimizing a variational free energy functional on a generative model augmented with preference and epistemic priors. This result reinforces theoretical consistency with the Free Energy Principle by casting planning under uncertainty itself as a form of variational inference. Our formulation yields policies that jointly support goal achievement and information gain, while incorporating a complexity term that accounts for bounded computational resources. This unifying framework connects and extends existing methods, enabling scalable, resource-aware implementations of active inference agents.
We propose a scalable, approximate inference hypernetwork framework for a general model of history-dependent processes. The flexible data model is based on a neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representing the evolution of internal states together with a trainable observation model subcomponent. The posterior distribution corresponding to the data model parameters (weights and biases) follows a stochastic differential equation with a drift term related to the score of the posterior that is learned jointly with the data model parameters. This Langevin sampling approach offers flexibility in balancing the computational budget between the evaluation cost of the data model and the approximation of the posterior density of its parameters. We demonstrate performance of the ensemble sampling hypernetwork on chemical reaction and material physics data and compare it to standard variational inference.
In this paper, we exploit the observation that stochastic variational inference (SVI) is a form of annealing and present a modified SVI approach -- applicable to both large and small datasets -- that allows the amount of annealing done by SVI to be tuned. We are motivated by the fact that, in SVI, the larger the batch size the more approximately Gaussian is the intrinsic noise, but the smaller its variance. This low variance reduces the amount of annealing which is needed to escape bad local optimal solutions. We propose a simple method for achieving both goals of having larger variance noise to escape bad local optimal solutions and more data information to obtain more accurate gradient directions. The idea is to set an actual batch size, which may be the size of the data set, and a smaller effective batch size that matches the larger level of variance at this smaller batch size. The result is an approximation to the maximum entropy stochastic gradient at this variance level. We theoretically motivate our approach for the framework of conjugate exponential family models and illustrate the method empirically on the probabilistic matrix factorization collaborative filter, the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, and the Gaussian mixture model.
Speed-of-sound (SoS) is a biomechanical characteristic of tissue, and its imaging can provide a promising biomarker for diagnosis. Reconstructing SoS images from ultrasound acquisitions can be cast as a limited-angle computed-tomography problem, with Variational Networks being a promising model-based deep learning solution. Some acquired data frames may, however, get corrupted by noise due to, e.g., motion, lack of contact, and acoustic shadows, which in turn negatively affects the resulting SoS reconstructions. We propose to use the uncertainty in SoS reconstructions to attribute trust to each individual acquired frame. Given multiple acquisitions, we then use an uncertainty based automatic selection among these retrospectively, to improve diagnostic decisions. We investigate uncertainty estimation based on Monte Carlo Dropout and Bayesian Variational Inference. We assess our automatic frame selection method for differential diagnosis of breast cancer, distinguishing between benign fibroadenoma and malignant carcinoma. We evaluate 21 lesions classified as BI-RADS~4, which represents suspicious cases for probable malignancy. The most trustworthy frame among four acquisitions of each lesion was identified using uncertainty based criteria. Selecting a frame informed by uncertainty achieved an area under curve of 76% and 80% for Monte Carlo Dropout and Bayesian Variational Inference, respectively, superior to any uncertainty-uninformed baselines with the best one achieving 64%. A novel use of uncertainty estimation is proposed for selecting one of multiple data acquisitions for further processing and decision making.
We introduce a novel generative modeling framework based on a discretized parabolic Monge-Amp\`ere PDE, which emerges as a continuous limit of the Sinkhorn algorithm commonly used in optimal transport. Our method performs iterative refinement in the space of Brenier maps using a mirror gradient descent step. We establish theoretical guarantees for generative modeling through the lens of no-regret analysis, demonstrating that the iterates converge to the optimal Brenier map under a variety of step-size schedules. As a technical contribution, we derive a new Evolution Variational Inequality tailored to the parabolic Monge-Amp\`ere PDE, connecting geometry, transportation cost, and regret. Our framework accommodates non-log-concave target distributions, constructs an optimal sampling process via the Brenier map, and integrates favorable learning techniques from generative adversarial networks and score-based diffusion models. As direct applications, we illustrate how our theory paves new pathways for generative modeling and variational inference.
Diffusion models have emerged as powerful generative tools with applications in computer vision and scientific machine learning (SciML), where they have been used to solve large-scale probabilistic inverse problems. Traditionally, these models have been derived using principles of variational inference, denoising, statistical signal processing, and stochastic differential equations. In contrast to the conventional presentation, in this study we derive diffusion models using ideas from linear partial differential equations and demonstrate that this approach has several benefits that include a constructive derivation of the forward and reverse processes, a unified derivation of multiple formulations and sampling strategies, and the discovery of a new class of variance preserving models. We also apply the conditional version of these models to solve canonical conditional density estimation problems and challenging inverse problems. These problems help establish benchmarks for systematically quantifying the performance of different formulations and sampling strategies in this study and for future studies. Finally, we identify and implement a mechanism through which a single diffusion model can be applied to measurements obtained from multiple measurement operators. Taken together, the contents of this manuscript provide a new understanding of and several new directions in the application of diffusion models to solving physics-based inverse problems.
Remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) technology infers heart rate by capturing subtle color changes in facial skin using a camera, demonstrating great potential in non-contact heart rate measurement. However, measurement accuracy significantly decreases in complex scenarios such as lighting changes and head movements compared to ideal laboratory conditions. Existing deep learning models often neglect the quantification of measurement uncertainty, limiting their credibility in dynamic scenes. To address the issue of insufficient rPPG measurement reliability in complex scenarios, this paper introduces Bayesian neural networks to the rPPG field for the first time, proposing the Robust Fusion Bayesian Physiological Network (RF-BayesPhysNet), which can model both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. It leverages variational inference to balance accuracy and computational efficiency. Due to the current lack of uncertainty estimation metrics in the rPPG field, this paper also proposes a new set of methods, using Spearman correlation coefficient, prediction interval coverage, and confidence interval width, to measure the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation methods under different noise conditions. Experiments show that the model, with only double the parameters compared to traditional network models, achieves a MAE of 2.56 on the UBFC-RPPG dataset, surpassing most models. It demonstrates good uncertainty estimation capability in no-noise and low-noise conditions, providing prediction confidence and significantly enhancing robustness in real-world applications. We have open-sourced the code at https://github.com/AIDC-rPPG/RF-Net
In this work, we propose a novel particle-based variational inference (ParVI) method that accelerates the EVI-Im. Inspired by energy quadratization (EQ) and operator splitting techniques for gradient flows, our approach efficiently drives particles towards the target distribution. Unlike EVI-Im, which employs the implicit Euler method to solve variational-preserving particle dynamics for minimizing the KL divergence, derived using a "discretize-then-variational" approach, the proposed algorithm avoids repeated evaluation of inter-particle interaction terms, significantly reducing computational cost. The framework is also extensible to other gradient-based sampling techniques. Through several numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our method outperforms existing ParVI approaches in efficiency, robustness, and accuracy.
We present three Fisher divergence (FD) minimization algorithms for learning Gaussian process (GP) based score models for lower dimensional density estimation problems. The density is formed by multiplying a base multivariate normal distribution with an exponentiated GP refinement, and so we refer to it as a GP-tilted nonparametric density. By representing the GP part of the score as a linear function using the random Fourier feature (RFF) approximation, we show that all learning problems can be solved in closed form. This includes the basic and noise conditional versions of the Fisher divergence, as well as a novel alternative to noise conditional FD models based on variational inference (VI). Here, we propose using an ELBO-like optimization of the approximate posterior with which we derive a Fisher variational predictive distribution. The RFF representation of the GP, which is functionally equivalent to a single layer neural network score model with cosine activation, provides a unique linear form for which all expectations are in closed form. The Gaussian base also helps with tractability of the VI approximation. We demonstrate our three learning algorithms, as well as a MAP baseline algorithm, on several low dimensional density estimation problems. The closed-form nature of the learning problem removes the reliance on iterative algorithms, making this technique particularly well-suited to large data sets.
Reduced order models (ROMs) play a critical role in fluid mechanics by providing low-cost predictions, making them an attractive tool for engineering applications. However, for ROMs to be widely applicable, they must not only generalise well across different regimes, but also provide a measure of confidence in their predictions. While recent data-driven approaches have begun to address nonlinear reduction techniques to improve predictions in transient environments, challenges remain in terms of robustness and parametrisation. In this work, we present a nonlinear reduction strategy specifically designed for transient flows that incorporates parametrisation and uncertainty quantification. Our reduction strategy features a variational auto-encoder (VAE) that uses variational inference for confidence measurement. We use a latent space transformer that incorporates recent advances in attention mechanisms to predict dynamical systems. Attention's versatility in learning sequences and capturing their dependence on external parameters enhances generalisation across a wide range of dynamics. Prediction, coupled with confidence, enables more informed decision making and addresses the need for more robust models. In addition, this confidence is used to cost-effectively sample the parameter space, improving model performance a priori across the entire parameter space without requiring evaluation data for the entire domain.