The Internet is rife with flourishing rumours that spread through microblogs and social media. Recent work has shown that analysing the stance of the crowd towards a rumour is a good indicator for its veracity. One state-of-the-art system uses an LSTM neural network to automatically classify stance for posts on Twitter by considering the context of a whole branch, while another, more simple Decision Tree classifier, performs at least as well by performing careful feature engineering. One approach to predict the veracity of a rumour is to use stance as the only feature for a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). This thesis generates a stance-annotated Reddit dataset for the Danish language, and implements various models for stance classification. Out of these, a Linear Support Vector Machine provides the best results with an accuracy of 0.76 and macro F1 score of 0.42. Furthermore, experiments show that stance labels can be used across languages and platforms with a HMM to predict the veracity of rumours, achieving an accuracy of 0.82 and F1 score of 0.67. Even higher scores are achieved by relying only on the Danish dataset. In this case veracity prediction scores an accuracy of 0.83 and an F1 of 0.68. Finally, when using automatic stance labels for the HMM, only a small drop in performance is observed, showing that the implemented system can have practical applications.
This paper surveys and presents recent academic work carried out within the field of stance classification and fake news detection. Echo chambers and the model organism problem are examples that pose challenges to acquire data with high quality, due to opinions being polarised in microblogs. Nevertheless it is shown that several machine learning approaches achieve promising results in classifying stance. Some use crowd stance for fake news detection, such as the approach in [Dungs et al., 2018] using Hidden Markov Models. Furthermore feature engineering have significant importance in several approaches, which is shown in [Aker et al., 2017]. This paper additionally includes a proposal of a system implementation based on the presented survey.
This paper describes our system submitted to SemEval 2019 Task 7: RumourEval 2019: Determining Rumour Veracity and Support for Rumours, Subtask A (Gorrell et al., 2019). The challenge focused on classifying whether posts from Twitter and Reddit support, deny, query, or comment a hidden rumour, truthfulness of which is the topic of an underlying discussion thread. We formulate the problem as a stance classification, determining the rumour stance of a post with respect to the previous thread post and the source thread post. The recent BERT architecture was employed to build an end-to-end system which has reached the F1 score of 61.67% on the provided test data. It finished at the 2nd place in the competition, without any hand-crafted features, only 0.2% behind the winner.
Social media communications are becoming increasingly prevalent; some useful, some false, whether unwittingly or maliciously. An increasing number of rumours daily flood the social networks. Determining their veracity in an autonomous way is a very active and challenging field of research, with a variety of methods proposed. However, most of the models rely on determining the constituent messages' stance towards the rumour, a feature known as the "wisdom of the crowd". Although several supervised machine-learning approaches have been proposed to tackle the message stance classification problem, these have numerous shortcomings. In this paper we argue that semi-supervised learning is more effective than supervised models and use two graph-based methods to demonstrate it. This is not only in terms of classification accuracy, but equally important, in terms of speed and scalability. We use the Label Propagation and Label Spreading algorithms and run experiments on a dataset of 72 rumours and hundreds of thousands messages collected from Twitter. We compare our results on two available datasets to the state-of-the-art to demonstrate our algorithms' performance regarding accuracy, speed and scalability for real-time applications.
Analysing how people react to rumours associated with news in social media is an important task to prevent the spreading of misinformation, which is nowadays widely recognized as a dangerous tendency. In social media conversations, users show different stances and attitudes towards rumourous stories. Some users take a definite stance, supporting or denying the rumour at issue, while others just comment it, or ask for additional evidence related to the veracity of the rumour. On this line, a new shared task has been proposed at SemEval-2017 (Task 8, SubTask A), which is focused on rumour stance classification in English tweets. The goal is predicting user stance towards emerging rumours in Twitter, in terms of supporting, denying, querying, or commenting the original rumour, looking at the conversation threads originated by the rumour. This paper describes a new approach to this task, where the use of conversation-based and affective-based features, covering different facets of affect, has been explored. Our classification model outperforms the best-performing systems for stance classification at SemEval-2017 Task 8, showing the effectiveness of the feature set proposed.
Stance detection is a critical component of rumour and fake news identification. It involves the extraction of the stance a particular author takes related to a given claim, both expressed in text. This paper investigates stance classification for Russian. It introduces a new dataset, RuStance, of Russian tweets and news comments from multiple sources, covering multiple stories, as well as text classification approaches to stance detection as benchmarks over this data in this language. As well as presenting this openly-available dataset, the first of its kind for Russian, the paper presents a baseline for stance prediction in the language.
With the increasing usage of the internet, more and more data is being digitized including parliamentary debates but they are in an unstructured format. There is a need to convert them into a structured format for linguistic analysis. Much work has been done on parliamentary data such as Hansard, American congressional floor-debate data on various aspects but less on pragmatics. In this paper, we provide a dataset for the synopsis of Indian parliamentary debates and perform stance classification of speeches i.e identifying if the speaker is supporting the bill/issue or against it. We also analyze the intention of the speeches beyond mere sentences i.e pragmatics in the parliament. Based on thorough manual analysis of the debates, we developed an annotation scheme of 4 mutually exclusive categories to analyze the purpose of the speeches: to find out ISSUES, to BLAME, to APPRECIATE and for CALL FOR ACTION. We have annotated the dataset provided, with these 4 categories and conducted preliminary experiments for automatic detection of the categories. Our automated classification approach gave us promising results.
We can often detect from a person's utterances whether he/she is in favor of or against a given target entity -- their stance towards the target. However, a person may express the same stance towards a target by using negative or positive language. Here for the first time we present a dataset of tweet--target pairs annotated for both stance and sentiment. The targets may or may not be referred to in the tweets, and they may or may not be the target of opinion in the tweets. Partitions of this dataset were used as training and test sets in a SemEval-2016 shared task competition. We propose a simple stance detection system that outperforms submissions from all 19 teams that participated in the shared task. Additionally, access to both stance and sentiment annotations allows us to explore several research questions. We show that while knowing the sentiment expressed by a tweet is beneficial for stance classification, it alone is not sufficient. Finally, we use additional unlabeled data through distant supervision techniques and word embeddings to further improve stance classification.
Social media tend to be rife with rumours while new reports are released piecemeal during breaking news. Interestingly, one can mine multiple reactions expressed by social media users in those situations, exploring their stance towards rumours, ultimately enabling the flagging of highly disputed rumours as being potentially false. In this work, we set out to develop an automated, supervised classifier that uses multi-task learning to classify the stance expressed in each individual tweet in a rumourous conversation as either supporting, denying or questioning the rumour. Using a classifier based on Gaussian Processes, and exploring its effectiveness on two datasets with very different characteristics and varying distributions of stances, we show that our approach consistently outperforms competitive baseline classifiers. Our classifier is especially effective in estimating the distribution of different types of stance associated with a given rumour, which we set forth as a desired characteristic for a rumour-tracking system that will warn both ordinary users of Twitter and professional news practitioners when a rumour is being rebutted.
Rumour stance classification, the task that determines if each tweet in a collection discussing a rumour is supporting, denying, questioning or simply commenting on the rumour, has been attracting substantial interest. Here we introduce a novel approach that makes use of the sequence of transitions observed in tree-structured conversation threads in Twitter. The conversation threads are formed by harvesting users' replies to one another, which results in a nested tree-like structure. Previous work addressing the stance classification task has treated each tweet as a separate unit. Here we analyse tweets by virtue of their position in a sequence and test two sequential classifiers, Linear-Chain CRF and Tree CRF, each of which makes different assumptions about the conversational structure. We experiment with eight Twitter datasets, collected during breaking news, and show that exploiting the sequential structure of Twitter conversations achieves significant improvements over the non-sequential methods. Our work is the first to model Twitter conversations as a tree structure in this manner, introducing a novel way of tackling NLP tasks on Twitter conversations.
This paper describes team Turing's submission to SemEval 2017 RumourEval: Determining rumour veracity and support for rumours (SemEval 2017 Task 8, Subtask A). Subtask A addresses the challenge of rumour stance classification, which involves identifying the attitude of Twitter users towards the truthfulness of the rumour they are discussing. Stance classification is considered to be an important step towards rumour verification, therefore performing well in this task is expected to be useful in debunking false rumours. In this work we classify a set of Twitter posts discussing rumours into either supporting, denying, questioning or commenting on the underlying rumours. We propose a LSTM-based sequential model that, through modelling the conversational structure of tweets, which achieves an accuracy of 0.784 on the RumourEval test set outperforming all other systems in Subtask A.
Stance classification aims to identify, for a particular issue under discussion, whether the speaker or author of a conversational turn has Pro (Favor) or Con (Against) stance on the issue. Detecting stance in tweets is a new task proposed for SemEval-2016 Task6, involving predicting stance for a dataset of tweets on the topics of abortion, atheism, climate change, feminism and Hillary Clinton. Given the small size of the dataset, our team created our own topic-specific training corpus by developing a set of high precision hashtags for each topic that were used to query the twitter API, with the aim of developing a large training corpus without additional human labeling of tweets for stance. The hashtags selected for each topic were predicted to be stance-bearing on their own. Experimental results demonstrate good performance for our features for opinion-target pairs based on generalizing dependency features using sentiment lexicons.
Stance classification determines the attitude, or stance, in a (typically short) text. The task has powerful applications, such as the detection of fake news or the automatic extraction of attitudes toward entities or events in the media. This paper describes a surprisingly simple and efficient classification approach to open stance classification in Twitter, for rumour and veracity classification. The approach profits from a novel set of automatically identifiable problem-specific features, which significantly boost classifier accuracy and achieve above state-of-the-art results on recent benchmark datasets. This calls into question the value of using complex sophisticated models for stance classification without first doing informed feature extraction.
Rumour stance classification, defined as classifying the stance of specific social media posts into one of supporting, denying, querying or commenting on an earlier post, is becoming of increasing interest to researchers. While most previous work has focused on using individual tweets as classifier inputs, here we report on the performance of sequential classifiers that exploit the discourse features inherent in social media interactions or 'conversational threads'. Testing the effectiveness of four sequential classifiers -- Hawkes Processes, Linear-Chain Conditional Random Fields (Linear CRF), Tree-Structured Conditional Random Fields (Tree CRF) and Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTM) -- on eight datasets associated with breaking news stories, and looking at different types of local and contextual features, our work sheds new light on the development of accurate stance classifiers. We show that sequential classifiers that exploit the use of discourse properties in social media conversations while using only local features, outperform non-sequential classifiers. Furthermore, we show that LSTM using a reduced set of features can outperform the other sequential classifiers; this performance is consistent across datasets and across types of stances. To conclude, our work also analyses the different features under study, identifying those that best help characterise and distinguish between stances, such as supporting tweets being more likely to be accompanied by evidence than denying tweets. We also set forth a number of directions for future research.
Despite the increasing use of social media platforms for information and news gathering, its unmoderated nature often leads to the emergence and spread of rumours, i.e. pieces of information that are unverified at the time of posting. At the same time, the openness of social media platforms provides opportunities to study how users share and discuss rumours, and to explore how natural language processing and data mining techniques may be used to find ways of determining their veracity. In this survey we introduce and discuss two types of rumours that circulate on social media; long-standing rumours that circulate for long periods of time, and newly-emerging rumours spawned during fast-paced events such as breaking news, where reports are released piecemeal and often with an unverified status in their early stages. We provide an overview of research into social media rumours with the ultimate goal of developing a rumour classification system that consists of four components: rumour detection, rumour tracking, rumour stance classification and rumour veracity classification. We delve into the approaches presented in the scientific literature for the development of each of these four components. We summarise the efforts and achievements so far towards the development of rumour classification systems and conclude with suggestions for avenues for future research in social media mining for detection and resolution of rumours.
Currency trading (Forex) is the largest world market in terms of volume. We analyze trading and tweeting about the EUR-USD currency pair over a period of three years. First, a large number of tweets were manually labeled, and a Twitter stance classification model is constructed. The model then classifies all the tweets by the trading stance signal: buy, hold, or sell (EUR vs. USD). The Twitter stance is compared to the actual currency rates by applying the event study methodology, well-known in financial economics. It turns out that there are large differences in Twitter stance distribution and potential trading returns between the four groups of Twitter users: trading robots, spammers, trading companies, and individual traders. Additionally, we observe attempts of reputation manipulation by post festum removal of tweets with poor predictions, and deleting/reposting of identical tweets to increase the visibility without tainting one's Twitter timeline.
In stance classification, the target on which the stance is made defines the boundary of the task, and a classifier is usually trained for prediction on the same target. In this work, we explore the potential for generalizing classifiers between different targets, and propose a neural model that can apply what has been learned from a source target to a destination target. We show that our model can find useful information shared between relevant targets which improves generalization in certain scenarios.
Automatic resolution of rumours is a challenging task that can be broken down into smaller components that make up a pipeline, including rumour detection, rumour tracking and stance classification, leading to the final outcome of determining the veracity of a rumour. In previous work, these steps in the process of rumour verification have been developed as separate components where the output of one feeds into the next. We propose a multi-task learning approach that allows joint training of the main and auxiliary tasks, improving the performance of rumour verification. We examine the connection between the dataset properties and the outcomes of the multi-task learning models used.
The 2017 Fake News Challenge Stage 1 (FNC-1) shared task addressed a stance classification task as a crucial first step towards detecting fake news. To date, there is no in-depth analysis paper to critically discuss FNC-1's experimental setup, reproduce the results, and draw conclusions for next-generation stance classification methods. In this paper, we provide such an in-depth analysis for the three top-performing systems. We first find that FNC-1's proposed evaluation metric favors the majority class, which can be easily classified, and thus overestimates the true discriminative power of the methods. Therefore, we propose a new F1-based metric yielding a changed system ranking. Next, we compare the features and architectures used, which leads to a novel feature-rich stacked LSTM model that performs on par with the best systems, but is superior in predicting minority classes. To understand the methods' ability to generalize, we derive a new dataset and perform both in-domain and cross-domain experiments. Our qualitative and quantitative study helps interpreting the original FNC-1 scores and understand which features help improving performance and why. Our new dataset and all source code used during the reproduction study are publicly available for future research.