Automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) offers fast and easy-to-use posterior approximation in multiple modern probabilistic programming languages. However, its stochastic optimizer lacks clear convergence criteria and requires tuning parameters. Moreover, ADVI inherits the poor posterior uncertainty estimates of mean-field variational Bayes (MFVB). We introduce "deterministic ADVI" (DADVI) to address these issues. DADVI replaces the intractable MFVB objective with a fixed Monte Carlo approximation, a technique known in the stochastic optimization literature as the "sample average approximation" (SAA). By optimizing an approximate but deterministic objective, DADVI can use off-the-shelf second-order optimization, and, unlike standard mean-field ADVI, is amenable to more accurate posterior covariances via linear response (LR). In contrast to existing worst-case theory, we show that, on certain classes of common statistical problems, DADVI and the SAA can perform well with relatively few samples even in very high dimensions, though we also show that such favorable results cannot extend to variational approximations that are too expressive relative to mean-field ADVI. We show on a variety of real-world problems that DADVI reliably finds good solutions with default settings (unlike ADVI) and, together with LR covariances, is typically faster and more accurate than standard ADVI.
Variational inference (VI) seeks to approximate a target distribution $\pi$ by an element of a tractable family of distributions. Of key interest in statistics and machine learning is Gaussian VI, which approximates $\pi$ by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to $\pi$ over the space of Gaussians. In this work, we develop the (Stochastic) Forward-Backward Gaussian Variational Inference (FB-GVI) algorithm to solve Gaussian VI. Our approach exploits the composite structure of the KL divergence, which can be written as the sum of a smooth term (the potential) and a non-smooth term (the entropy) over the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) space of Gaussians endowed with the Wasserstein distance. For our proposed algorithm, we obtain state-of-the-art convergence guarantees when $\pi$ is log-smooth and log-concave, as well as the first convergence guarantees to first-order stationary solutions when $\pi$ is only log-smooth.
Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to implement Bayesian inference. In the past three decades, MCMC sampling methods have faced some challenges in being adapted to larger models (such as in deep learning) and big data problems. Advanced proposal distributions that incorporate gradients, such as a Langevin proposal distribution, provide a means to address some of the limitations of MCMC sampling for Bayesian neural networks. Furthermore, MCMC methods have typically been constrained to statisticians and currently not well-known among deep learning researchers. We present a tutorial for MCMC methods that covers simple Bayesian linear and logistic models, and Bayesian neural networks. The aim of this tutorial is to bridge the gap between theory and implementation via coding, given a general sparsity of libraries and tutorials to this end. This tutorial provides code in Python with data and instructions that enable their use and extension. We provide results for some benchmark problems showing the strengths and weaknesses of implementing the respective Bayesian models via MCMC. We highlight the challenges in sampling multi-modal posterior distributions for the case of Bayesian neural networks and the need for further improvement of convergence diagnosis methods.
In this work, we adopt Wyner common information framework for unsupervised multi-view representation learning. Within this framework, we propose two novel formulations that enable the development of computational efficient solvers based on the alternating minimization principle. The first formulation, referred to as the {\em variational form}, enjoys a linearly growing complexity with the number of views and is based on a variational-inference tight surrogate bound coupled with a Lagrangian optimization objective function. The second formulation, i.e., the {\em representational form}, is shown to include known results as special cases. Here, we develop a tailored version from the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for solving the resulting non-convex optimization problem. In the two cases, the convergence of the proposed solvers is established in certain relevant regimes. Furthermore, our empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods as compared with the state-of-the-art solvers. In a nutshell, the proposed solvers offer computational efficiency, theoretical convergence guarantees (local minima), scalable complexity with the number of views, and exceptional accuracy as compared with the state-of-the-art techniques. Our focus here is devoted to the discrete case and our results for continuous distributions are reported elsewhere.
Wireless fingerprinting refers to a device identification method leveraging hardware imperfections and wireless channel variations as signatures. Beyond physical layer characteristics, recent studies demonstrated that user behaviors could be identified through network traffic, e.g., packet length, without decryption of the payload. Inspired by these results, we propose a multi-layer fingerprinting framework that jointly considers the multi-layer signatures for improved identification performance. In contrast to previous works, by leveraging the recent multi-view machine learning paradigm, i.e., data with multiple forms, our method can cluster the device information shared among the multi-layer features without supervision. Our information-theoretic approach can be extended to supervised and semi-supervised settings with straightforward derivations. In solving the formulated problem, we obtain a tight surrogate bound using variational inference for efficient optimization. In extracting the shared device information, we develop an algorithm based on the Wyner common information method, enjoying reduced computation complexity as compared to existing approaches. The algorithm can be applied to data distributions belonging to the exponential family class. Empirically, we evaluate the algorithm in a synthetic dataset with real-world video traffic and simulated physical layer characteristics. Our empirical results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in both supervised and unsupervised settings.
We propose a text-to-image generation algorithm based on deep neural networks when text captions for images are unavailable during training. In this work, instead of simply generating pseudo-ground-truth sentences of training images using existing image captioning methods, we employ a pretrained CLIP model, which is capable of properly aligning embeddings of images and corresponding texts in a joint space and, consequently, works well on zero-shot recognition tasks. We optimize a text-to-image generation model by maximizing the data log-likelihood conditioned on pairs of image-text CLIP embeddings. To better align data in the two domains, we employ a principled way based on a variational inference, which efficiently estimates an approximate posterior of the hidden text embedding given an image and its CLIP feature. Experimental results validate that the proposed framework outperforms existing approaches by large margins under unsupervised and semi-supervised text-to-image generation settings.
This paper introduces a new latent variable generative model able to handle high dimensional longitudinal data and relying on variational inference. The time dependency between the observations of an input sequence is modelled using normalizing flows over the associated latent variables. The proposed method can be used to generate either fully synthetic longitudinal sequences or trajectories that are conditioned on several data in a sequence and demonstrates good robustness properties to missing data. We test the model on 6 datasets of different complexity and show that it can achieve better likelihood estimates than some competitors as well as more reliable missing data imputation. A code is made available at \url{https://github.com/clementchadebec/variational_inference_for_longitudinal_data}.
Understanding stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and its variants is essential for machine learning. However, most of the preceding analyses are conducted under amenable conditions such as unbiased gradient estimator and bounded objective functions, which does not encompass many sophisticated applications, such as variational Monte Carlo, entropy-regularized reinforcement learning and variational inference. In this paper, we consider the SGD algorithm that employ the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimator to compute the gradient, called MCMC-SGD. Since MCMC reduces the sampling complexity significantly, it is an asymptotically convergent biased estimator in practice. Moreover, by incorporating a general class of unbounded functions, it is much more difficult to analyze the MCMC sampling error. Therefore, we assume that the function is sub-exponential and use the Bernstein inequality for non-stationary Markov chains to derive error bounds of the MCMC estimator. Consequently, MCMC-SGD is proven to have a first order convergence rate $O(\log K/\sqrt{n K})$ with $K$ iterations and a sample size $n$. It partially explains how MCMC influences the behavior of SGD. Furthermore, we verify the correlated negative curvature condition under reasonable assumptions. It is shown that MCMC-SGD escapes from saddle points and reaches $(\epsilon,\epsilon^{1/4})$ approximate second order stationary points or $\epsilon^{1/2}$-variance points at least $O(\epsilon^{-11/2}\log^{2}(1/\epsilon) )$ steps with high probability. Our analysis unveils the convergence pattern of MCMC-SGD across a broad class of stochastic optimization problems, and interprets the convergence phenomena observed in practical applications.
Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the $ABC$ condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.
Multitemporal hyperspectral unmixing (MTHU) is a fundamental tool in the analysis of hyperspectral image sequences. It reveals the dynamical evolution of the materials (endmembers) and of their proportions (abundances) in a given scene. However, adequately accounting for the spatial and temporal variability of the endmembers in MTHU is challenging, and has not been fully addressed so far in unsupervised frameworks. In this work, we propose an unsupervised MTHU algorithm based on variational recurrent neural networks. First, a stochastic model is proposed to represent both the dynamical evolution of the endmembers and their abundances, as well as the mixing process. Moreover, a new model based on a low-dimensional parametrization is used to represent spatial and temporal endmember variability, significantly reducing the amount of variables to be estimated. We propose to formulate MTHU as a Bayesian inference problem. However, the solution to this problem does not have an analytical solution due to the nonlinearity and non-Gaussianity of the model. Thus, we propose a solution based on deep variational inference, in which the posterior distribution of the estimated abundances and endmembers is represented by using a combination of recurrent neural networks and a physically motivated model. The parameters of the model are learned using stochastic backpropagation. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms state of the art MTHU algorithms.
Variational autoencoders (VAE) are powerful generative models that learn the latent representations of input data as random variables. Recent studies show that VAE can flexibly learn the complex temporal dynamics of time series and achieve more promising forecasting results than deterministic models. However, a major limitation of existing works is that they fail to jointly learn the local patterns (e.g., seasonality and trend) and temporal dynamics of time series for forecasting. Accordingly, we propose a novel hybrid variational autoencoder (HyVAE) to integrate the learning of local patterns and temporal dynamics by variational inference for time series forecasting. Experimental results on four real-world datasets show that the proposed HyVAE achieves better forecasting results than various counterpart methods, as well as two HyVAE variants that only learn the local patterns or temporal dynamics of time series, respectively.
Diffusion models have recently received a surge of interest due to their impressive performance for image restoration, especially in terms of noise robustness. However, existing diffusion-based methods are trained on a large amount of training data and perform very well in-distribution, but can be quite susceptible to distribution shift. This is especially inappropriate for data-starved hyperspectral image (HSI) restoration. To tackle this problem, this work puts forth a self-supervised diffusion model for HSI restoration, namely Denoising Diffusion Spatio-Spectral Model (\texttt{DDS2M}), which works by inferring the parameters of the proposed Variational Spatio-Spectral Module (VS2M) during the reverse diffusion process, solely using the degraded HSI without any extra training data. In VS2M, a variational inference-based loss function is customized to enable the untrained spatial and spectral networks to learn the posterior distribution, which serves as the transitions of the sampling chain to help reverse the diffusion process. Benefiting from its self-supervised nature and the diffusion process, \texttt{DDS2M} enjoys stronger generalization ability to various HSIs compared to existing diffusion-based methods and superior robustness to noise compared to existing HSI restoration methods. Extensive experiments on HSI denoising, noisy HSI completion and super-resolution on a variety of HSIs demonstrate \texttt{DDS2M}'s superiority over the existing task-specific state-of-the-arts.
In applied Bayesian inference scenarios, users may have access to a large number of pre-existing model evaluations, for example from maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) optimization runs. However, traditional approximate inference techniques make little to no use of this available information. We propose the framework of post-process Bayesian inference as a means to obtain a quick posterior approximation from existing target density evaluations, with no further model calls. Within this framework, we introduce Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ), a method for post-process approximate inference for models with black-box and potentially noisy likelihoods. VSBQ reuses existing target density evaluations to build a sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model of the log posterior density function. Subsequently, we leverage sparse-GP Bayesian quadrature combined with variational inference to achieve fast approximate posterior inference over the surrogate. We validate our method on challenging synthetic scenarios and real-world applications from computational neuroscience. The experiments show that VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations by post-processing existing optimization traces, with no further model evaluations.
Category theory has been successfully applied in various domains of science, shedding light on universal principles unifying diverse phenomena and thereby enabling knowledge transfer between them. Applications to machine learning have been pursued recently, and yet there is still a gap between abstract mathematical foundations and concrete applications to machine learning tasks. In this paper we introduce DisCoPyro as a categorical structure learning framework, which combines categorical structures (such as symmetric monoidal categories and operads) with amortized variational inference, and can be applied, e.g., in program learning for variational autoencoders. We provide both mathematical foundations and concrete applications together with comparison of experimental performance with other models (e.g., neuro-symbolic models). We speculate that DisCoPyro could ultimately contribute to the development of artificial general intelligence.
Neyman-Scott processes (NSPs) have been applied across a range of fields to model points or temporal events with a hierarchy of clusters. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is typically used for posterior sampling in the model. However, MCMC's mixing time can cause the resulting inference to be slow, and thereby slow down model learning and prediction. We develop the first variational inference (VI) algorithm for NSPs, and give two examples of suitable variational posterior point process distributions. Our method minimizes the inclusive Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence for VI to obtain the variational parameters. We generate samples from the approximate posterior point processes much faster than MCMC, as we can directly estimate the approximate posterior point processes without any MCMC steps or gradient descent. We include synthetic and real-world data experiments that demonstrate our VI algorithm achieves better prediction performance than MCMC when computational time is limited.
In this paper, we present a variational inference algorithm that decomposes a signal into multiple groups of related spectral lines. The spectral lines in each group are associated with a group parameter common to all spectral lines within the group. The proposed algorithm jointly estimates the group parameters, the number of spetral lines within a group, and the number of groups exploiting a Bernoulli-Gamma-Gaussian hierarchical prior model which promotes sparse solutions. Aiming to maximize the evidence lower bound (ELBO), variational inference provides analytic approximations of the posterior probability density functions (PDFs) and also gives estimates of the additional model parameters such as the measurement noise variance. While the activation variables of the groups and the associated group parameters (such as fundamental frequencies and the corresponding higher order harmonics) are estimated as point estimates, the remaining parameters such as the complex amplitudes of the spectral lines and their precision parameters are estimated as approximate posterior PDFs. We demonstrate the versatility and performance of the proposed algorithm on three different inference problems. In particular, the proposed algorithm is applied to the multi-pitch estimation problem, the radar signal-based extended object estimation problem, and variational mode decomposition (VMD) using synthetic measurements and to real multi-pitch estimation problem using the Bach-10 dataset. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art model-based and pre-trained algorithms on all three inference problems.
In various practical situations, matrix factorization methods suffer from poor data quality, such as high data sparsity and low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Here, we consider a matrix factorization problem by utilizing auxiliary information, which is massively available in real-world applications, to overcome the challenges caused by poor data quality. Unlike existing methods that mainly rely on simple linear models to combine auxiliary information with the main data matrix, we propose to integrate gradient boosted trees in the probabilistic matrix factorization framework to effectively leverage auxiliary information (MFAI). Thus, MFAI naturally inherits several salient features of gradient boosted trees, such as the capability of flexibly modeling nonlinear relationships and robustness to irrelevant features and missing values in auxiliary information. The parameters in MFAI can be automatically determined under the empirical Bayes framework, making it adaptive to the utilization of auxiliary information and immune to overfitting. Moreover, MFAI is computationally efficient and scalable to large datasets by exploiting variational inference. We demonstrate the advantages of MFAI through comprehensive numerical results from simulation studies and real data analyses. Our approach is implemented in the R package mfair available at https://github.com/YangLabHKUST/mfair.
Online optimization has gained increasing interest due to its capability of tracking real-world streaming data. Although online optimization methods have been widely studied in the setting of frequentist statistics, few works have considered online optimization with the Bayesian sampling problem. In this paper, we study an Online Particle-based Variational Inference (OPVI) algorithm that uses a set of particles to represent the approximating distribution. To reduce the gradient error caused by the use of stochastic approximation, we include a sublinear increasing batch-size method to reduce the variance. To track the performance of the OPVI algorithm with respect to a sequence of dynamically changing target posterior, we provide a detailed theoretical analysis from the perspective of Wasserstein gradient flow with a dynamic regret. Synthetic and Bayesian Neural Network experiments show that the proposed algorithm achieves better results than naively applying existing Bayesian sampling methods in the online setting.
Click-based interactive segmentation (IS) aims to extract the target objects under user interaction. For this task, most of the current deep learning (DL)-based methods mainly follow the general pipelines of semantic segmentation. Albeit achieving promising performance, they do not fully and explicitly utilize and propagate the click information, inevitably leading to unsatisfactory segmentation results, even at clicked points. Against this issue, in this paper, we propose to formulate the IS task as a Gaussian process (GP)-based pixel-wise binary classification model on each image. To solve this model, we utilize amortized variational inference to approximate the intractable GP posterior in a data-driven manner and then decouple the approximated GP posterior into double space forms for efficient sampling with linear complexity. Then, we correspondingly construct a GP classification framework, named GPCIS, which is integrated with the deep kernel learning mechanism for more flexibility. The main specificities of the proposed GPCIS lie in: 1) Under the explicit guidance of the derived GP posterior, the information contained in clicks can be finely propagated to the entire image and then boost the segmentation; 2) The accuracy of predictions at clicks has good theoretical support. These merits of GPCIS as well as its good generality and high efficiency are substantiated by comprehensive experiments on several benchmarks, as compared with representative methods both quantitatively and qualitatively.
Stochastic models with global parameters and latent variables are common, and for which variational inference (VI) is popular. However, existing methods are often either slow or inaccurate in high dimensions. We suggest a fast and accurate VI method for this case that employs a well-defined natural gradient variational optimization that targets the joint posterior of the global parameters and latent variables. It is a hybrid method, where at each step the global parameters are updated using the natural gradient and the latent variables are generated from their conditional posterior. A fast to compute expression for the Tikhonov damped Fisher information matrix is used, along with the re-parameterization trick, to provide a stable natural gradient. We apply the approach to deep mixed models, which are an emerging class of Bayesian neural networks with random output layer coefficients to allow for heterogeneity. A range of simulations show that using the natural gradient is substantially more efficient than using the ordinary gradient, and that the approach is faster and more accurate than two cutting-edge natural gradient VI methods. In a financial application we show that accounting for industry level heterogeneity using the deep mixed model improves the accuracy of asset pricing models. MATLAB code to implement the method can be found at: https://github.com/WeibenZhang07/NG-HVI.