Computational methods to accelerate natural disaster response include change detection, map alignment, and vision-aided navigation. Current software functions optimally only on near-nadir images, though off-nadir images are often the first sources of information following a natural disaster. The use of off-nadir images for the aforementioned tasks requires the computation of geocentric pose, which is an aerial vehicle's spatial orientation with respect to gravity. This study proposes a deep learning ensemble framework to predict geocentric pose using 5,923 near-nadir and off-nadir RGB satellite images of cities worldwide. First, a U-Net Fully Convolutional Neural Network predicts the pixel-wise above-ground elevation mask of the RGB images. Then, the elevation masks are concatenated with the RGB images to form four-channel inputs fed into a second convolutional model, which predicts orientation angle and magnification scale. A performance accuracy of R2=0.917 significantly outperforms previous methodologies. In addition, outlier removal is performed through supervised interpolation, and a sensitivity analysis of elevation masks is conducted to gauge the usefulness of data features, motivating future avenues of feature engineering. The high-accuracy software built in this study contributes to mapping and navigation procedures for effective disaster response to save lives.
Currently the UK Electric market is guided by load (demand) forecasts published every thirty minutes by the regulator. A key factor in predicting demand is weather conditions, with forecasts published every hour. We present HYENA: a hybrid predictive model that combines feature engineering (selection of the candidate predictor features), mobile-window predictors and finally LSTM encoder-decoders to achieve higher accuracy with respect to mainstream models from the literature. HYENA decreased MAPE loss by 16\% and RMSE loss by 10\% over the best available benchmark model, thus establishing a new state of the art for the UK electric load (and price) forecasting.
Learning latent representations has aided operational decision-making in several disciplines. Its advantages include uncovering hidden interactions in data and automating procedures which were performed manually in the past. Representation learning is also being adopted by earth and environmental sciences. However, there are still subfields that depend on manual feature engineering based on expert knowledge and the use of algorithms which do not utilize the latent space. Relying on those techniques can inhibit operational decision-making since they impose data constraints and inhibit automation. In this work, we adopt a case study for nitrogen response rate prediction and examine if representation learning can be used for operational use. We compare a Multilayer Perceptron, an Autoencoder, and a dual-head Autoencoder with a reference Random Forest model for nitrogen response rate prediction. To bring the predictions closer to an operational setting we assume absence of future weather data, and we are evaluating the models using error metrics and a domain-derived error threshold. The results show that learning latent representations can provide operational nitrogen response rate predictions by offering performance equal and sometimes better than the reference model.
Experience has shown that trading in stock and cryptocurrency markets has the potential to be highly profitable. In this light, considerable effort has been recently devoted to investigate how to apply machine learning and deep learning to interpret and predict market behavior. This research introduces a new deep neural network architecture and a novel idea of how to prepare financial data before feeding them to the model. In the data preparation part, the first step is to generate many features using technical indicators and then apply the XGBoost model for feature engineering. Splitting data into three categories and using separate autoencoders, we extract high-level mixed features at the second step. This data preprocessing is introduced to predict price movements. Regarding modeling, different convolutional layers, an long short-term memory unit, and several fully-connected layers have been designed to perform binary classification. This research also introduces a trading strategy to exploit the trained model outputs. Three different datasets are used to evaluate this method, where results indicate that this framework can provide us with profitable and robust predictions.
Data Scientists leverage common sense reasoning and domain knowledge to understand and enrich data for building predictive models. In recent years, we have witnessed a surge in tools and techniques for {\em automated machine learning}. While data scientists can employ various such tools to help with model building, many other aspects such as {\em feature engineering} that require semantic understanding of concepts, remain manual to a large extent. In this paper we discuss important shortcomings of current automated data science solutions and machine learning. We discuss how leveraging basic semantic reasoning on data in combination with novel tools for data science automation can help with consistent and explainable data augmentation and transformation. Moreover, semantics can assist data scientists in a new manner by helping with challenges related to {\em trust}, {\em bias}, and {\em explainability}.
We study a pitfall in the typical workflow for differentially private machine learning. The use of differentially private learning algorithms in a "drop-in" fashion -- without accounting for the impact of differential privacy (DP) noise when choosing what feature engineering operations to use, what features to select, or what neural network architecture to use -- yields overly complex and poorly performing models. In other words, by anticipating the impact of DP noise, a simpler and more accurate alternative model could have been trained for the same privacy guarantee. We systematically study this phenomenon through theory and experiments. On the theory front, we provide an explanatory framework and prove that the phenomenon arises naturally from the addition of noise to satisfy differential privacy. On the experimental front, we demonstrate how the phenomenon manifests in practice using various datasets, types of models, tasks, and neural network architectures. We also analyze the factors that contribute to the problem and distill our experimental insights into concrete takeaways that practitioners can follow when training models with differential privacy. Finally, we propose privacy-aware algorithms for feature selection and neural network architecture search. We analyze their differential privacy properties and evaluate them empirically.
Many startups and companies worldwide have been using project management software and tools to monitor, track and manage their projects. For software projects, the number of tasks from the beginning to the end is quite a large number that sometimes takes a lot of time and effort to search and link the current task to a group of previous ones for further references. This paper proposes an efficient task dependency recommendation algorithm to suggest tasks dependent on a given task that the user has just created. We present an efficient feature engineering step and construct a deep neural network to this aim. We performed extensive experiments on two different large projects (MDLSITE from moodle.org and FLUME from apache.org) to find the best features in 28 combinations of features and the best performance model using two embedding methods (GloVe and FastText). We consider three types of models (GRU, CNN, LSTM) using Accuracy@K, MRR@K, and Recall@K (where K = 1, 2, 3, and 5) and baseline models using traditional methods: TF-IDF with various matching score calculating such as cosine similarity, Euclidean distance, Manhattan distance, and Chebyshev distance. After many experiments, the GloVe Embedding and CNN model reached the best result in our dataset, so we chose this model as our proposed method. In addition, adding the time filter in the post-processing step can significantly improve the recommendation system's performance. The experimental results show that our proposed method can reach 0.2335 in Accuracy@1 and MRR@1 and 0.2011 in Recall@1 of dataset FLUME. With the MDLSITE dataset, we obtained 0.1258 in Accuracy@1 and MRR@1 and 0.1141 in Recall@1. In the top 5, our model reached 0.3040 in Accuracy@5, 0.2563 MRR@5, and 0.2651 Recall@5 in FLUME. In the MDLSITE dataset, our model got 0.5270 Accuracy@5, 0.2689 MRR@5, and 0.2651 Recall@5.
A main task in condensed-matter physics is to recognize, classify, and characterize phases of matter and the corresponding phase transitions, for which machine learning provides a new class of research tools due to the remarkable development in computing power and algorithms. Despite much exploration in this new field, usually different methods and techniques are needed for different scenarios. Here, we present SimCLP: a simple framework for contrastive learning phases of matter, which is inspired by the recent development in contrastive learning of visual representations. We demonstrate the success of this framework on several representative systems, including classical and quantum, single-particle and many-body, conventional and topological. SimCLP is flexible and free of usual burdens such as manual feature engineering and prior knowledge. The only prerequisite is to prepare enough state configurations. Furthermore, it can generate representation vectors and labels and hence help tackle other problems. SimCLP therefore paves an alternative way to the development of a generic tool for identifying unexplored phase transitions.
Collaborative filtering models generally perform better than content-based filtering models and do not require careful feature engineering. However, in the cold-start scenario collaborative information may be scarce or even unavailable, whereas the content information may be abundant, but also noisy and expensive to acquire. Thus, selection of particular features that improve cold-start recommendations becomes an important and non-trivial task. In the recent approach by Nembrini et al., the feature selection is driven by the correlational compatibility between collaborative and content-based models. The problem is formulated as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) which, due to its NP-hard complexity, is solved using Quantum Annealing on a quantum computer provided by D-Wave. Inspired by the reported results, we contend the idea that current quantum annealers are superior for this problem and instead focus on classical algorithms. In particular, we tackle QUBO via TTOpt, a recently proposed black-box optimizer based on tensor networks and multilinear algebra. We show the computational feasibility of this method for large problems with thousands of features, and empirically demonstrate that the solutions found are comparable to the ones obtained with D-Wave across all examined datasets.
Land Carbon verification has long been a challenge in the carbon credit market. Carbon verification methods currently available are expensive, and may generate low-quality credit. Scalable and accurate remote sensing techniques enable new approaches to monitor changes in Above Ground Biomass (AGB) and Soil Organic Carbon (SOC). The majority of state-of-the-art research employs remote sensing on AGB and SOC separately, although some studies indicate a positive correlation between the two. We intend to combine the two domains in our research to improve state-of-the-art total carbon estimation and to provide insight into the voluntary carbon trading market. We begin by establishing baseline model in our study area in Scotland, using state-of-the-art methodologies in the SOC and AGB domains. The effects of feature engineering techniques such as variance inflation factor and feature selection on machine learning models are then investigated. This is extended by combining predictor variables from the two domains. Finally, we leverage the possible correlation between AGB and SOC to establish a relationship between the two and propose novel models in an attempt outperform the state-of-the-art results. We compared three machine learning techniques, boosted regression tree, random forest, and xgboost. These techniques have been demonstrated to be the most effective in both domains.
Malware continues to evolve rapidly, and more than 450,000 new samples are captured every day, which makes manual malware analysis impractical. However, existing deep learning detection models need manual feature engineering or require high computational overhead for long training processes, which might be laborious to select feature space and difficult to retrain for mitigating model aging. Therefore, a crucial requirement for a detector is to realize automatic and efficient detection. In this paper, we propose a lightweight malware detection model called SeqNet which could be trained at high speed with low memory required on the raw binaries. By avoiding contextual confusion and reducing semantic loss, SeqNet maintains the detection accuracy when reducing the number of parameters to only 136K. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods and the low training cost requirement of SeqNet in our experiments. Besides, we make our datasets and codes public to stimulate further academic research.
The digital transformation of the energy infrastructure enables new, data driven, applications often supported by machine learning models. However, domain specific data transformations, pre-processing and management in modern data driven pipelines is yet to be addressed. In this paper we perform a first time study on generic data models that are able to support designing feature management solutions that are the most important component in developing ML-based energy applications. We first propose a taxonomy for designing data models suitable for energy applications, explain how this model can support the design of features and their subsequent management by specialized feature stores. Using a short-term forecasting dataset, we show the benefits of designing richer data models and engineering the features on the performance of the resulting models. Finally, we benchmark three complementary feature management solutions, including an open-source feature store suitable for time series.
Players of online games generate rich behavioral data during gaming. Based on these data, game developers can build a range of data science applications, such as bot detection and social recommendation, to improve the gaming experience. However, the development of such applications requires data cleansing, training sample labeling, feature engineering, and model development, which makes the use of such applications in small and medium-sized game studios still uncommon. While acquiring supervised learning data is costly, unlabeled behavioral logs are often continuously and automatically generated in games. Thus we resort to unsupervised representation learning of player behavioral data to optimize intelligent services in games. Behavioral data has many unique properties, including semantic complexity, excessive length, etc. A worth noting property within raw player behavioral data is that a lot of it is task-irrelevant. For these data characteristics, we introduce a BPE-enhanced compression method and propose a novel adaptive masking strategy called Masking by Token Confidence (MTC) for the Masked Language Modeling (MLM) pre-training task. MTC is designed to increase the masking probabilities of task-relevant tokens. Experiments on four downstream tasks and successful deployment in a world-renowned Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game (MMORPG) prove the effectiveness of the MTC strategy.
Surrogate models are data-based approximations of computationally expensive simulations that enable efficient exploration of the model's design space and informed decision-making in many physical domains. The usage of surrogate models in the vibroacoustic domain, however, is challenging due to the non-smooth, complex behavior of wave phenomena. This paper investigates four Machine Learning (ML) approaches in the modelling of surrogates of Sound Transmission Loss (STL). Feature importance and feature engineering are used to improve the models' accuracy while increasing their interpretability and physical consistency. The transfer of the proposed techniques to other problems in the vibroacoustic domain and possible limitations of the models are discussed.
Risk assessment is a substantial problem for financial institutions that has been extensively studied both for its methodological richness and its various practical applications. With the expansion of inclusive finance, recent attentions are paid to micro and small-sized enterprises (MSEs). Compared with large companies, MSEs present a higher exposure rate to default owing to their insecure financial stability. Conventional efforts learn classifiers from historical data with elaborate feature engineering. However, the main obstacle for MSEs involves severe deficiency in credit-related information, which may degrade the performance of prediction. Besides, financial activities have diverse explicit and implicit relations, which have not been fully exploited for risk judgement in commercial banks. In particular, the observations on real data show that various relationships between company users have additional power in financial risk analysis. In this paper, we consider a graph of banking data, and propose a novel HIDAM model for the purpose. Specifically, we attempt to incorporate heterogeneous information network with rich attributes on multi-typed nodes and links for modeling the scenario of business banking service. To enhance feature representation of MSEs, we extract interactive information through meta-paths and fully exploit path information. Furthermore, we devise a hierarchical attention mechanism respectively to learn the importance of contents inside each meta-path and the importance of different metapahs. Experimental results verify that HIDAM outperforms state-of-the-art competitors on real-world banking data.
Cookie banners, the pop ups that appear to collect your consent for data collection, are a tempting ground for dark patterns. Dark patterns are design elements that are used to influence the user's choice towards an option that is not in their interest. The use of dark patterns renders consent elicitation meaningless and voids the attempts to improve a fair collection and use of data. Can machine learning be used to automatically detect the presence of dark patterns in cookie banners? In this work, a dataset of cookie banners of 300 news websites was used to train a prediction model that does exactly that. The machine learning pipeline we used includes feature engineering, parameter search, training a Gradient Boosted Tree classifier and evaluation. The accuracy of the trained model is promising, but allows a lot of room for improvement. We provide an in-depth analysis of the interdisciplinary challenges that automated dark pattern detection poses to artificial intelligence. The dataset and all the code created using machine learning is available at the url to repository removed for review.
Current data analysis for the Canadian Olympic fencing team is primarily done manually by coaches and analysts. Due to the highly repetitive, yet dynamic and subtle movements in fencing, manual data analysis can be inefficient and inaccurate. We propose FenceNet as a novel architecture to automate the classification of fine-grained footwork techniques in fencing. FenceNet takes 2D pose data as input and classifies actions using a skeleton-based action recognition approach that incorporates temporal convolutional networks to capture temporal information. We train and evaluate FenceNet on the Fencing Footwork Dataset (FFD), which contains 10 fencers performing 6 different footwork actions for 10-11 repetitions each (652 total videos). FenceNet achieves 85.4% accuracy under 10-fold cross-validation, where each fencer is left out as the test set. This accuracy is within 1% of the current state-of-the-art method, JLJA (86.3%), which selects and fuses features engineered from skeleton data, depth videos, and inertial measurement units. BiFenceNet, a variant of FenceNet that captures the "bidirectionality" of human movement through two separate networks, achieves 87.6% accuracy, outperforming JLJA. Since neither FenceNet nor BiFenceNet requires data from wearable sensors, unlike JLJA, they could be directly applied to most fencing videos, using 2D pose data as input extracted from off-the-shelf 2D human pose estimators. In comparison to JLJA, our methods are also simpler as they do not require manual feature engineering, selection, or fusion.
Many software systems today face uncertain operating conditions, such as sudden changes in the availability of resources or unexpected user behavior. Without proper mitigation these uncertainties can jeopardize the system goals. Self-adaptation is a common approach to tackle such uncertainties. When the system goals may be compromised, the self-adaptive system has to select the best adaptation option to reconfigure by analyzing the possible adaptation options, i.e., the adaptation space. Yet, analyzing large adaptation spaces using rigorous methods can be resource- and time-consuming, or even be infeasible. One approach to tackle this problem is by using online machine learning to reduce adaptation spaces. However, existing approaches require domain expertise to perform feature engineering to define the learner, and support online adaptation space reduction only for specific goals. To tackle these limitations, we present 'Deep Learning for Adaptation Space Reduction Plus' -- DLASeR+ in short. DLASeR+ offers an extendable learning framework for online adaptation space reduction that does not require feature engineering, while supporting three common types of adaptation goals: threshold, optimization, and set-point goals. We evaluate DLASeR+ on two instances of an Internet-of-Things application with increasing sizes of adaptation spaces for different combinations of adaptation goals. We compare DLASeR+ with a baseline that applies exhaustive analysis and two state-of-the-art approaches for adaptation space reduction that rely on learning. Results show that DLASeR+ is effective with a negligible effect on the realization of the adaptation goals compared to an exhaustive analysis approach, and supports three common types of adaptation goals beyond the state-of-the-art approaches.
Recently there has seen promising results on automatic stage scoring by extracting spatio-temporal features from electroencephalogram (EEG). Such methods entail laborious manual feature engineering and domain knowledge. In this study, we propose an adaptive scheme to probabilistically encode, filter and accumulate the input signals and weight the resultant features by the half-Gaussian probabilities of signal intensities. The adaptive representations are subsequently fed into a transformer model to automatically mine the relevance between features and corresponding stages. Extensive experiments on the largest public dataset against state-of-the-art methods validate the effectiveness of our proposed method and reveal promising future directions.
Aggregating successfully the choices regarding a given decision problem made by the multiple collective members into a single solution is essential for exploiting the collective's intelligence and for effective crowdsourcing. There are various aggregation techniques, some of which come down to a simple and sometimes effective deterministic aggregation rule. However, it has been shown that the efficiency of those techniques is unstable under varying conditions and within different domains. Other methods mainly rely on learning from the decision-makers previous responses or the availability of additional information about them. In this study, we present two one-shot machine-learning-based aggregation approaches. The first predicts, given multiple features about the collective's choices, including meta-cognitive ones, which aggregation method will be best for a given case. The second directly predicts which decision is optimal, given, among other things, the selection made by each method. We offer a meta-cognitive feature-engineering approach for characterizing a collective decision-making case in a context-sensitive fashion. In addition, we offer a new aggregation method, the Devil's-Advocate aggregator, to deal with cases in which standard aggregation methods are predicted to fail. Experimental results show that using either of our proposed approaches increases the percentage of successfully aggregated cases (i.e., cases in which the correct answer is returned) significantly, compared to the uniform application of each rule-based aggregation method. We also demonstrate the importance of the Devil's Advocate aggregator.