This paper presents a new accelerated proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology to perform Bayesian inference in imaging inverse problems with an underlying convex geometry. The proposed strategy takes the form of a stochastic relaxed proximal-point iteration that admits two complementary interpretations. For models that are smooth or regularised by Moreau-Yosida smoothing, the algorithm is equivalent to an implicit midpoint discretisation of an overdamped Langevin diffusion targeting the posterior distribution of interest. This discretisation is asymptotically unbiased for Gaussian targets and shown to converge in an accelerated manner for any target that is $\kappa$-strongly log-concave (i.e., requiring in the order of $\sqrt{\kappa}$ iterations to converge, similarly to accelerated optimisation schemes), comparing favorably to [M. Pereyra, L. Vargas Mieles, K.C. Zygalakis, SIAM J. Imaging Sciences, 13,2 (2020), pp. 905-935] which is only provably accelerated for Gaussian targets and has bias. For models that are not smooth, the algorithm is equivalent to a Leimkuhler-Matthews discretisation of a Langevin diffusion targeting a Moreau-Yosida approximation of the posterior distribution of interest, and hence achieves a significantly lower bias than conventional unadjusted Langevin strategies based on the Euler-Maruyama discretisation. For targets that are $\kappa$-strongly log-concave, the provided non-asymptotic convergence analysis also identifies the optimal time step which maximizes the convergence speed. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through a range of experiments related to image deconvolution with Gaussian and Poisson noise, with assumption-driven and data-driven convex priors. Source codes for the numerical experiments of this paper are available from https://github.com/MI2G/accelerated-langevin-imla.
Stochastic variational inference and its derivatives in the form of variational autoencoders enjoy the ability to perform Bayesian inference on large datasets in an efficient manner. However, performing inference with a VAE requires a certain design choice (i.e. reparameterization trick) to allow unbiased and low variance gradient estimation, restricting the types of models that can be created. To overcome this challenge, an alternative estimator based on natural evolution strategies is proposed. This estimator does not make assumptions about the kind of distributions used, allowing for the creation of models that would otherwise not have been possible under the VAE framework.
Ill-posed linear inverse problems arise frequently in various applications, from computational photography to medical imaging. A recent line of research exploits Bayesian inference with informative priors to handle the ill-posedness of such problems. Amongst such priors, score-based generative models (SGM) have recently been successfully applied to several different inverse problems. In this study, we exploit the particular structure of the prior defined by the SGM to define a sequence of intermediate linear inverse problems. As the noise level decreases, the posteriors of these inverse problems get closer to the target posterior of the original inverse problem. To sample from this sequence of posteriors, we propose the use of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. The proposed algorithm, MCGDiff, is shown to be theoretically grounded and we provide numerical simulations showing that it outperforms competing baselines when dealing with ill-posed inverse problems in a Bayesian setting.
Accurately detecting symbols transmitted over multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) wireless channels is crucial in realizing the benefits of MIMO techniques. However, optimal MIMO detection is associated with a complexity that grows exponentially with the MIMO dimensions and quickly becomes impractical. Recently, stochastic sampling-based Bayesian inference techniques, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), have been combined with the gradient descent (GD) method to provide a promising framework for MIMO detection. In this work, we propose to efficiently approach optimal detection by exploring the discrete search space via MCMC random walk accelerated by Nesterov's gradient method. Nesterov's GD guides MCMC to make efficient searches without the computationally expensive matrix inversion and line search. Our proposed method operates using multiple GDs per random walk, achieving sufficient descent towards important regions of the search space before adding random perturbations, guaranteeing high sampling efficiency. To provide augmented exploration, extra samples are derived through the trajectory of Nesterov's GD by simple operations, effectively supplementing the sample list for statistical inference and boosting the overall MIMO detection performance. Furthermore, we design an early stopping tactic to terminate unnecessary further searches, remarkably reducing the complexity. Simulation results and complexity analysis reveal that the proposed method achieves exceptional performance in both uncoded and coded MIMO systems, adapts to realistic channel models, and scales well to large MIMO dimensions.
This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.
Change-of-variables (CoV) formulas allow to reduce complicated probability densities to simpler ones by a learned transformation with tractable Jacobian determinant. They are thus powerful tools for maximum-likelihood learning, Bayesian inference, outlier detection, model selection, etc. CoV formulas have been derived for a large variety of model types, but this information is scattered over many separate works. We present a systematic treatment from the unifying perspective of encoder/decoder architectures, which collects 28 CoV formulas in a single place, reveals interesting relationships between seemingly diverse methods, emphasizes important distinctions that are not always clear in the literature, and identifies surprising gaps for future research.
The topology of the large-scale structure of the universe contains valuable information on the underlying cosmological parameters. While persistent homology can extract this topological information, the optimal method for parameter estimation from the tool remains an open question. To address this, we propose a neural network model to map persistence images to cosmological parameters. Through a parameter recovery test, we demonstrate that our model makes accurate and precise estimates, considerably outperforming conventional Bayesian inference approaches.
Neural network pruning is a highly effective technique aimed at reducing the computational and memory demands of large neural networks. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to pruning neural networks utilizing Bayesian inference, which can seamlessly integrate into the training procedure. Our proposed method leverages the posterior probabilities of the neural network prior to and following pruning, enabling the calculation of Bayes factors. The calculated Bayes factors guide the iterative pruning. Through comprehensive evaluations conducted on multiple benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method achieves desired levels of sparsity while maintaining competitive accuracy.
The digital twin concept represents an appealing opportunity to advance condition-based and predictive maintenance paradigms for civil engineering systems, thus allowing reduced lifecycle costs, increased system safety, and increased system availability. This work proposes a predictive digital twin approach to the health monitoring, maintenance, and management planning of civil engineering structures. The asset-twin coupled dynamical system is encoded employing a probabilistic graphical model, which allows all relevant sources of uncertainty to be taken into account. In particular, the time-repeating observations-to-decisions flow is modeled using a dynamic Bayesian network. Real-time structural health diagnostics are provided by assimilating sensed data with deep learning models. The digital twin state is continually updated in a sequential Bayesian inference fashion. This is then exploited to inform the optimal planning of maintenance and management actions within a dynamic decision-making framework. A preliminary offline phase involves the population of training datasets through a reduced-order numerical model and the computation of a health-dependent control policy. The strategy is assessed on two synthetic case studies, involving a cantilever beam and a railway bridge, demonstrating the dynamic decision-making capabilities of health-aware digital twins.
Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the density estimator to accurately estimate a density function. We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel member in the family of methods for simulation-based inference (SBI). SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function, which allows for computational inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational Bayes methods. Among other benefits, SSNL avoids the requirement to manually craft summary statistics for inference of high-dimensional data sets, since the lower-dimensional representation is computed simultaneously with learning the likelihood and without additional computational overhead. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments, including two challenging real-world examples from the astrophysics and neuroscience literatures, and show that it either outperforms or is on par with state-of-the-art methods, making it an excellent off-the-shelf estimator for SBI for high-dimensional data sets.
A hierarchical Bayesian framework is introduced for developing rich mixture models for real-valued time series, partly motivated by important applications in financial time series analysis. At the top level, meaningful discrete states are identified as appropriately quantised values of some of the most recent samples. These observable states are described as a discrete context-tree model. At the bottom level, a different, arbitrary model for real-valued time series -- a base model -- is associated with each state. This defines a very general framework that can be used in conjunction with any existing model class to build flexible and interpretable mixture models. We call this the Bayesian Context Trees State Space Model, or the BCT-X framework. Efficient algorithms are introduced that allow for effective, exact Bayesian inference and learning in this setting; in particular, the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) context-tree model can be identified. These algorithms can be updated sequentially, facilitating efficient online forecasting. The utility of the general framework is illustrated in two particular instances: When autoregressive (AR) models are used as base models, resulting in a nonlinear AR mixture model, and when conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models are used, resulting in a mixture model that offers a powerful and systematic way of modelling the well-known volatility asymmetries in financial data. In forecasting, the BCT-X methods are found to outperform state-of-the-art techniques on simulated and real-world data, both in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. In modelling, the BCT-X structure finds natural structure present in the data. In particular, the BCT-ARCH model reveals a novel, important feature of stock market index data, in the form of an enhanced leverage effect.
Bayesian inference and kernel methods are well established in machine learning. The neural network Gaussian process in particular provides a concept to investigate neural networks in the limit of infinitely wide hidden layers by using kernel and inference methods. Here we build upon this limit and provide a field-theoretic formalism which covers the generalization properties of infinitely wide networks. We systematically compute generalization properties of linear, non-linear, and deep non-linear networks for kernel matrices with heterogeneous entries. In contrast to currently employed spectral methods we derive the generalization properties from the statistical properties of the input, elucidating the interplay of input dimensionality, size of the training data set, and variability of the data. We show that data variability leads to a non-Gaussian action reminiscent of a ($\varphi^3+\varphi^4$)-theory. Using our formalism on a synthetic task and on MNIST we obtain a homogeneous kernel matrix approximation for the learning curve as well as corrections due to data variability which allow the estimation of the generalization properties and exact results for the bounds of the learning curves in the case of infinitely many training data points.
We consider a general optimization problem of minimizing a composite objective functional defined over a class of probability distributions. The objective is composed of two functionals: one is assumed to possess the variational representation and the other is expressed in terms of the expectation operator of a possibly nonsmooth convex regularizer function. Such a regularized distributional optimization problem widely appears in machine learning and statistics, such as proximal Monte-Carlo sampling, Bayesian inference and generative modeling, for regularized estimation and generation. We propose a novel method, dubbed as Moreau-Yoshida Variational Transport (MYVT), for solving the regularized distributional optimization problem. First, as the name suggests, our method employs the Moreau-Yoshida envelope for a smooth approximation of the nonsmooth function in the objective. Second, we reformulate the approximate problem as a concave-convex saddle point problem by leveraging the variational representation, and then develope an efficient primal-dual algorithm to approximate the saddle point. Furthermore, we provide theoretical analyses and report experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, which represent the inherent randomness in the data-generating process and the variability due to insufficient data, respectively. They analyzed those uncertainties in an information-theoretic way, assuming that the model is well-specified and treating the model's parameters as latent variables. However, the existing information-theoretic analysis of uncertainty cannot explain the widely believed property of uncertainty, known as the sensitivity between the test and training data. It implies that when test data are similar to training data in some sense, the epistemic uncertainty should become small. In this work, we study such uncertainty sensitivity using our novel decomposition method for the predictive uncertainty. Our analysis successfully defines such sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities. Furthermore, we extend the existing analysis of Bayesian meta-learning and show the novel sensitivities among tasks for the first time.
Traffic simulation software is used by transportation researchers and engineers to design and evaluate changes to roadways. These simulators are driven by models of microscopic driver behavior from which macroscopic measures like flow and congestion can be derived. Many models are designed for a subset of possible traffic scenarios and roadway configurations, while others have no explicit constraints on their application. Work zones (WZs) are one scenario for which no model to date has reproduced realistic driving behavior. This makes it difficult to optimize for safety and other metrics when designing a WZ. The Federal Highway Administration commissioned the USDOT Volpe Center to develop a car-following (CF) model for use in microscopic simulators that can capture and reproduce driver behavior accurately within and outside of WZs. Volpe also performed a naturalistic driving study to collect telematics data from vehicles driven on roads with WZs for use in model calibration. During model development, Volpe researchers observed difficulties in calibrating their model, leaving them to question whether there existed flaws in their model, in the data, or in the procedure used to calibrate the model using the data. In this thesis, I use Bayesian methods for data analysis and parameter estimation to explore and, where possible, address these questions. First, I use Bayesian inference to measure the sufficiency of the size of the data set. Second, I compare the procedure and results of the genetic algorithm based calibration performed by the Volpe researchers with those of Bayesian calibration. Third, I explore the benefits of modeling CF hierarchically. Finally, I apply what was learned in the first three phases using an established CF model, Wiedemann 99, to the probabilistic modeling of the Volpe model. Validation is performed using information criteria as an estimate of predictive accuracy.
In a probabilistic latent variable model, factorized (or mean-field) variational inference (F-VI) fits a separate parametric distribution for each latent variable. Amortized variational inference (A-VI) instead learns a common inference function, which maps each observation to its corresponding latent variable's approximate posterior. Typically, A-VI is used as a step in the training of variational autoencoders, however it stands to reason that A-VI could also be used as a general alternative to F-VI. In this paper we study when and why A-VI can be used for approximate Bayesian inference. We derive conditions on a latent variable model which are necessary, sufficient, and verifiable under which A-VI can attain F-VI's optimal solution, thereby closing the amortization gap. We prove these conditions are uniquely verified by simple hierarchical models, a broad class that encompasses many models in machine learning. We then show, on a broader class of models, how to expand the domain of AVI's inference function to improve its solution, and we provide examples, e.g. hidden Markov models, where the amortization gap cannot be closed.
For many practical applications in wireless communications, we need to recover a structured sparse signal from a linear observation model with dynamic grid parameters in the sensing matrix. Conventional expectation maximization (EM)-based compressed sensing (CS) methods, such as turbo compressed sensing (Turbo-CS) and turbo variational Bayesian inference (Turbo-VBI), have double-loop iterations, where the inner loop (E-step) obtains a Bayesian estimation of sparse signals and the outer loop (M-step) obtains a point estimation of dynamic grid parameters. This leads to a slow convergence rate. Furthermore, each iteration of the E-step involves a complicated matrix inverse in general. To overcome these drawbacks, we first propose a successive linear approximation VBI (SLA-VBI) algorithm that can provide Bayesian estimation of both sparse signals and dynamic grid parameters. Besides, we simplify the matrix inverse operation based on the majorization-minimization (MM) algorithmic framework. In addition, we extend our proposed algorithm from an independent sparse prior to more complicated structured sparse priors, which can exploit structured sparsity in specific applications to further enhance the performance. Finally, we apply our proposed algorithm to solve two practical application problems in wireless communications and verify that the proposed algorithm can achieve faster convergence, lower complexity, and better performance compared to the state-of-the-art EM-based methods.
Bayesian inference offers benefits over maximum likelihood, but it also comes with computational costs. Computing the posterior is typically intractable, as is marginalizing that posterior to form the posterior predictive distribution. In this paper, we present variational prediction, a technique for directly learning a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound. This approach can provide good predictive distributions without test time marginalization costs. We demonstrate Variational Prediction on an illustrative toy example.
Many real-world processes have complex tail dependence structures that cannot be characterized using classical Gaussian processes. More flexible spatial extremes models exhibit appealing extremal dependence properties but are often exceedingly prohibitive to fit and simulate from in high dimensions. In this paper, we aim to push the boundaries on computation and modeling of high-dimensional spatial extremes via integrating a new spatial extremes model that has flexible and non-stationary dependence properties in the encoding-decoding structure of a variational autoencoder called the XVAE. The XVAE can emulate spatial observations and produce outputs that have the same statistical properties as the inputs, especially in the tail. Our approach also provides a novel way of making fast inference with complex extreme-value processes. Through extensive simulation studies, we show that our XVAE is substantially more time-efficient than traditional Bayesian inference while outperforming many spatial extremes models with a stationary dependence structure. Lastly, we analyze a high-resolution satellite-derived dataset of sea surface temperature in the Red Sea, which includes 30 years of daily measurements at 16703 grid cells. We demonstrate how to use XVAE to identify regions susceptible to marine heatwaves under climate change and examine the spatial and temporal variability of the extremal dependence structure.
Bayesian inference has many advantages in robotic motion planning over four perspectives: The uncertainty quantification of the policy, safety (risk-aware) and optimum guarantees of robot motions, data-efficiency in training of reinforcement learning, and reducing the sim2real gap when the robot is applied to real-world tasks. However, the application of Bayesian inference in robotic motion planning is lagging behind the comprehensive theory of Bayesian inference. Further, there are no comprehensive reviews to summarize the progress of Bayesian inference to give researchers a systematic understanding in robotic motion planning. This paper first provides the probabilistic theories of Bayesian inference which are the preliminary of Bayesian inference for complex cases. Second, the Bayesian estimation is given to estimate the posterior of policies or unknown functions which are used to compute the policy. Third, the classical model-based Bayesian RL and model-free Bayesian RL algorithms for robotic motion planning are summarized, while these algorithms in complex cases are also analyzed. Fourth, the analysis of Bayesian inference in inverse RL is given to infer the reward functions in a data-efficient manner. Fifth, we systematically present the hybridization of Bayesian inference and RL which is a promising direction to improve the convergence of RL for better motion planning. Sixth, given the Bayesian inference, we present the interpretable and safe robotic motion plannings which are the hot research topic recently. Finally, all algorithms reviewed in this paper are summarized analytically as the knowledge graphs, and the future of Bayesian inference for robotic motion planning is also discussed, to pave the way for data-efficient, explainable, and safe robotic motion planning strategies for practical applications.