We propose a data-driven, closure model for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations that incorporates aleatoric, model uncertainty. The proposed closure consists of two parts. A parametric one, which utilizes previously proposed, neural-network-based tensor basis functions dependent on the rate of strain and rotation tensor invariants. This is complemented by latent, random variables which account for aleatoric model errors. A fully Bayesian formulation is proposed, combined with a sparsity-inducing prior in order to identify regions in the problem domain where the parametric closure is insufficient and where stochastic corrections to the Reynolds stress tensor are needed. Training is performed using sparse, indirect data, such as mean velocities and pressures, in contrast to the majority of alternatives that require direct Reynolds stress data. For inference and learning, a Stochastic Variational Inference scheme is employed, which is based on Monte Carlo estimates of the pertinent objective in conjunction with the reparametrization trick. This necessitates derivatives of the output of the RANS solver, for which we developed an adjoint-based formulation. In this manner, the parametric sensitivities from the differentiable solver can be combined with the built-in, automatic differentiation capability of the neural network library in order to enable an end-to-end differentiable framework. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed model to produce accurate, probabilistic, predictive estimates for all flow quantities, even in regions where model errors are present, on a separated flow in the backward-facing step benchmark problem.
Federated learning is a decentralized and privacy-preserving technique that enables multiple clients to collaborate with a server to learn a global model without exposing their private data. However, the presence of statistical heterogeneity among clients poses a challenge, as the global model may struggle to perform well on each client's specific task. To address this issue, we introduce a new perspective on personalized federated learning through Amortized Bayesian Meta-Learning. Specifically, we propose a novel algorithm called \emph{FedABML}, which employs hierarchical variational inference across clients. The global prior aims to capture representations of common intrinsic structures from heterogeneous clients, which can then be transferred to their respective tasks and aid in the generation of accurate client-specific approximate posteriors through a few local updates. Our theoretical analysis provides an upper bound on the average generalization error and guarantees the generalization performance on unseen data. Finally, several empirical results are implemented to demonstrate that \emph{FedABML} outperforms several competitive baselines.
Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are amortized variational inference algorithms that treat sampling from a distribution over compositional objects as a sequential decision-making problem with a learnable action policy. Unlike other algorithms for hierarchical sampling that optimize a variational bound, GFlowNet algorithms can stably run off-policy, which can be advantageous for discovering modes of the target distribution. Despite this flexibility in the choice of behaviour policy, the optimal way of efficiently selecting trajectories for training has not yet been systematically explored. In this paper, we view the choice of trajectories for training as an active learning problem and approach it using Bayesian techniques inspired by methods for multi-armed bandits. The proposed algorithm, Thompson sampling GFlowNets (TS-GFN), maintains an approximate posterior distribution over policies and samples trajectories from this posterior for training. We show in two domains that TS-GFN yields improved exploration and thus faster convergence to the target distribution than the off-policy exploration strategies used in past work.
Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the \emph{Controlled Monte Carlo Diffusion} sampler (CMCD) for Bayesian computation, a score-based annealing technique that crucially adapts both forward and backward dynamics in a diffusion model. On the way, we clarify the relationship between the EM-algorithm and iterative proportional fitting (IPF) for Schr{\"o}dinger bridges, deriving as well a regularised objective that bypasses the iterative bottleneck of standard IPF-updates. Finally, we show that CMCD has a strong foundation in the Jarzinsky and Crooks identities from statistical physics, and that it convincingly outperforms competing approaches across a wide array of experiments.
Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods tackle complex scientific models with challenging inverse problems. However, SBI models often face a significant hurdle due to their non-differentiable nature, which hampers the use of gradient-based optimization techniques. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) is a powerful approach that aims to make the most efficient use of experimental resources for improved inferences. While stochastic gradient BOED methods have shown promising results in high-dimensional design problems, they have mostly neglected the integration of BOED with SBI due to the difficult non-differentiable property of many SBI simulators. In this work, we establish a crucial connection between ratio-based SBI inference algorithms and stochastic gradient-based variational inference by leveraging mutual information bounds. This connection allows us to extend BOED to SBI applications, enabling the simultaneous optimization of experimental designs and amortized inference functions. We demonstrate our approach on a simple linear model and offer implementation details for practitioners.
Discrete latent space models have recently achieved performance on par with their continuous counterparts in deep variational inference. While they still face various implementation challenges, these models offer the opportunity for a better interpretation of latent spaces, as well as a more direct representation of naturally discrete phenomena. Most recent approaches propose to train separately very high-dimensional prior models on the discrete latent data which is a challenging task on its own. In this paper, we introduce a latent data model where the discrete state is a Markov chain, which allows fast end-to-end training. The performance of our generative model is assessed on a building management dataset and on the publicly available Electricity Transformer Dataset.
Large language models (LLMs) can be seen as atomic units of computation mapping sequences to a distribution over sequences. Thus, they can be seen as stochastic language layers in a language network, where the learnable parameters are the natural language prompts at each layer. By stacking two such layers and feeding the output of one layer to the next, we obtain a Deep Language Network (DLN). We first show how to effectively perform prompt optimization for a 1-Layer language network (DLN-1). Then, we present an extension that applies to 2-layer DLNs (DLN-2), where two prompts must be learned. The key idea is to consider the output of the first layer as a latent variable, which requires inference, and prompts to be learned as the parameters of the generative distribution. We first test the effectiveness of DLN-1 in multiple reasoning and natural language understanding tasks. Then, we show that DLN-2 can reach higher performance than a single layer, showing promise that we might reach comparable performance to GPT-4, even when each LLM in the network is smaller and less powerful.
This paper describes an efficient unsupervised learning method for a neural source separation model that utilizes a probabilistic generative model of observed multichannel mixtures proposed for blind source separation (BSS). For this purpose, amortized variational inference (AVI) has been used for directly solving the inverse problem of BSS with full-rank spatial covariance analysis (FCA). Although this unsupervised technique called neural FCA is in principle free from the domain mismatch problem, it is computationally demanding due to the full rankness of the spatial model in exchange for robustness against relatively short reverberations. To reduce the model complexity without sacrificing performance, we propose neural FastFCA based on the jointly-diagonalizable yet full-rank spatial model. Our neural separation model introduced for AVI alternately performs neural network blocks and single steps of an efficient iterative algorithm called iterative source steering. This alternating architecture enables the separation model to quickly separate the mixture spectrogram by leveraging both the deep neural network and the multichannel optimization algorithm. The training objective with AVI is derived to maximize the marginalized likelihood of the observed mixtures. The experiment using mixture signals of two to four sound sources shows that neural FastFCA outperforms conventional BSS methods and reduces the computational time to about 2% of that for the neural FCA.
Graph structure expression plays a vital role in distinguishing various graphs. In this work, we propose a Structure-Sensitive Graph Dictionary Embedding (SS-GDE) framework to transform input graphs into the embedding space of a graph dictionary for the graph classification task. Instead of a plain use of a base graph dictionary, we propose the variational graph dictionary adaptation (VGDA) to generate a personalized dictionary (named adapted graph dictionary) for catering to each input graph. In particular, for the adaptation, the Bernoulli sampling is introduced to adjust substructures of base graph keys according to each input, which increases the expression capacity of the base dictionary tremendously. To make cross-graph measurement sensitive as well as stable, multi-sensitivity Wasserstein encoding is proposed to produce the embeddings by designing multi-scale attention on optimal transport. To optimize the framework, we introduce mutual information as the objective, which further deduces to variational inference of the adapted graph dictionary. We perform our SS-GDE on multiple datasets of graph classification, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority over the state-of-the-art methods.
We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta}.
We study how to train personalized models for different tasks on decentralized devices with limited local data. We propose "Structured Cooperative Learning (SCooL)", in which a cooperation graph across devices is generated by a graphical model prior to automatically coordinate mutual learning between devices. By choosing graphical models enforcing different structures, we can derive a rich class of existing and novel decentralized learning algorithms via variational inference. In particular, we show three instantiations of SCooL that adopt Dirac distribution, stochastic block model (SBM), and attention as the prior generating cooperation graphs. These EM-type algorithms alternate between updating the cooperation graph and cooperative learning of local models. They can automatically capture the cross-task correlations among devices by only monitoring their model updating in order to optimize the cooperation graph. We evaluate SCooL and compare it with existing decentralized learning methods on an extensive set of benchmarks, on which SCooL always achieves the highest accuracy of personalized models and significantly outperforms other baselines on communication efficiency. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShuangtongLi/SCooL.
Probabilistic inference in high-dimensional state-space models is computationally challenging. For many spatiotemporal systems, however, prior knowledge about the dependency structure of state variables is available. We leverage this structure to develop a computationally efficient approach to state estimation and learning in graph-structured state-space models with (partially) unknown dynamics and limited historical data. Building on recent methods that combine ideas from deep learning with principled inference in Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRF), we reformulate graph-structured state-space models as Deep GMRFs defined by simple spatial and temporal graph layers. This results in a flexible spatiotemporal prior that can be learned efficiently from a single time sequence via variational inference. Under linear Gaussian assumptions, we retain a closed-form posterior, which can be sampled efficiently using the conjugate gradient method, scaling favourably compared to classical Kalman filter based approaches
Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are appropriately calibrated. To overcome this deficiency, we propose a systematic approach for analyzing the tails of random variables, and we illustrate how this approach can be used during the static analysis (before drawing samples) pass of a probabilistic programming language compiler. To characterize how the tails change under various operations, we develop an algebra which acts on a three-parameter family of tail asymptotics and which is based on the generalized Gamma distribution. Our algebraic operations are closed under addition and multiplication; they are capable of distinguishing sub-Gaussians with differing scales; and they handle ratios sufficiently well to reproduce the tails of most important statistical distributions directly from their definitions. Our empirical results confirm that inference algorithms that leverage our heavy-tailed algebra attain superior performance across a number of density modeling and variational inference tasks.
The Free Energy Principle (FEP) is a theoretical framework for describing how (intelligent) systems self-organise into coherent, stable structures by minimising a free energy functional. Active Inference (AIF) is a corollary of the FEP that specifically details how systems that are able to plan for the future (agents) function by minimising particular free energy functionals that incorporate information seeking components. This paper is the first in a series of two where we derive a synthetic version of AIF on free form factor graphs. The present paper focuses on deriving a local version of the free energy functionals used for AIF. This enables us to construct a version of AIF which applies to arbitrary graphical models and interfaces with prior work on message passing algorithms. The resulting messages are derived in our companion paper. We also identify a gap in the graphical notation used for factor graphs. While factor graphs are great at expressing a generative model, they have so far been unable to specify the full optimisation problem including constraints. To solve this problem we develop Constrained Forney-style Factor Graph (CFFG) notation which permits a fully graphical description of variational inference objectives. We then proceed to show how CFFG's can be used to reconstruct prior algorithms for AIF as well as derive new ones. The latter is demonstrated by deriving an algorithm that permits direct policy inference for AIF agents, circumventing a long standing scaling issue that has so far hindered the application of AIF in industrial settings. We demonstrate our algorithm on the classic T-maze task and show that it reproduces the information seeking behaviour that is a hallmark feature of AIF.
The Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP) is a unique phase of nuclear matter, theorized to have filled the Universe shortly after the Big Bang. A critical challenge in studying the QGP is that, to reconcile experimental observables with theoretical parameters, one requires many simulation runs of a complex physics model over a high-dimensional parameter space. Each run is computationally very expensive, requiring thousands of CPU hours, thus limiting physicists to only several hundred runs. Given limited training data for high-dimensional prediction, existing surrogate models often yield poor predictions with high predictive uncertainties, leading to imprecise scientific findings. To address this, we propose a new Additive Multi-Index Gaussian process (AdMIn-GP) model, which leverages a flexible additive structure on low-dimensional embeddings of the parameter space. This is guided by prior scientific knowledge that the QGP is dominated by multiple distinct physical phenomena (i.e., multiphysics), each involving a small number of latent parameters. The AdMIn-GP models for such embedded structures within a flexible Bayesian nonparametric framework, which facilitates efficient model fitting via a carefully constructed variational inference approach with inducing points. We show the effectiveness of the AdMIn-GP via a suite of numerical experiments and our QGP application, where we demonstrate considerably improved surrogate modeling performance over existing models.
A large number of works aim to alleviate the impact of noise due to an underlying conventional assumption of the negative role of noise. However, some existing works show that the assumption does not always hold. In this paper, we investigate how to benefit the classical models by random noise under the framework of Positive-incentive Noise (Pi-Noise). Since the ideal objective of Pi-Noise is intractable, we propose to optimize its variational bound instead, namely variational Pi-Noise (VPN). With the variational inference, a VPN generator implemented by neural networks is designed for enhancing base models and simplifying the inference of base models, without changing the architecture of base models. Benefiting from the independent design of base models and VPN generators, the VPN generator can work with most existing models. From the experiments, it is shown that the proposed VPN generator can improve the base models. It is appealing that the trained variational VPN generator prefers to blur the irrelevant ingredients in complicated images, which meets our expectations.
The goal of DCASE 2023 Challenge Task 7 is to generate various sound clips for Foley sound synthesis (FSS) by "category-to-sound" approach. "Category" is expressed by a single index while corresponding "sound" covers diverse and different sound examples. To generate diverse sounds for a given category, we adopt VITS, a text-to-speech (TTS) model with variational inference. In addition, we apply various techniques from speech synthesis including PhaseAug and Avocodo. Different from TTS models which generate short pronunciation from phonemes and speaker identity, the category-to-sound problem requires generating diverse sounds just from a category index. To compensate for the difference while maintaining consistency within each audio clip, we heavily modified the prior encoder to enhance consistency with posterior latent variables. This introduced additional Gaussian on the prior encoder which promotes variance within the category. With these modifications, we propose VIFS, variational inference for end-to-end Foley sound synthesis, which generates diverse high-quality sounds.
Approximate inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-conjugate likelihoods gets entangled with the learning of the model hyperparameters. We improve hyperparameter learning in GP models and focus on the interplay between variational inference (VI) and the learning target. While VI's lower bound to the marginal likelihood is a suitable objective for inferring the approximate posterior, we show that a direct approximation of the marginal likelihood as in Expectation Propagation (EP) is a better learning objective for hyperparameter optimization. We design a hybrid training procedure to bring the best of both worlds: it leverages conjugate-computation VI for inference and uses an EP-like marginal likelihood approximation for hyperparameter learning. We compare VI, EP, Laplace approximation, and our proposed training procedure and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposal across a wide range of data sets.
Black-box variational inference is widely used in situations where there is no proof that its stochastic optimization succeeds. We suggest this is due to a theoretical gap in existing stochastic optimization proofs: namely the challenge of gradient estimators with unusual noise bounds, and a composite non-smooth objective. For dense Gaussian variational families, we observe that existing gradient estimators based on reparameterization satisfy a quadratic noise bound and give novel convergence guarantees for proximal and projected stochastic gradient descent using this bound. This provides rigorous guarantees that methods similar to those used in practice converge on realistic inference problems.
Deep learning (DL)-based methods have recently shown great promise in bitemporal change detection (CD). Existing discriminative methods based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Transformers rely on discriminative representation learning for change recognition while struggling with exploring local and long-range contextual dependencies. As a result, it is still challenging to obtain fine-grained and robust CD maps in diverse ground scenes. To cope with this challenge, this work proposes a generative change detection model called GCD-DDPM to directly generate CD maps by exploiting the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM), instead of classifying each pixel into changed or unchanged categories. Furthermore, the Difference Conditional Encoder (DCE), is designed to guide the generation of CD maps by exploiting multi-level difference features. Leveraging the variational inference (VI) procedure, GCD-DDPM can adaptively re-calibrate the CD results through an iterative inference process, while accurately distinguishing subtle and irregular changes in diverse scenes. Finally, a Noise Suppression-based Semantic Enhancer (NSSE) is specifically designed to mitigate noise in the current step's change-aware feature representations from the CD Encoder. This refinement, serving as an attention map, can guide subsequent iterations while enhancing CD accuracy. Extensive experiments on four high-resolution CD datasets confirm the superior performance of the proposed GCD-DDPM. The code for this work will be available at https://github.com/udrs/GCD.