Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the density estimator to accurately estimate a density function. We present Surjective Sequential Neural Likelihood (SSNL) estimation, a novel member in the family of methods for simulation-based inference (SBI). SSNL fits a dimensionality-reducing surjective normalizing flow model and uses it as a surrogate likelihood function, which allows for computational inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational Bayes methods. Among other benefits, SSNL avoids the requirement to manually craft summary statistics for inference of high-dimensional data sets, since the lower-dimensional representation is computed simultaneously with learning the likelihood and without additional computational overhead. We evaluate SSNL on a wide variety of experiments, including two challenging real-world examples from the astrophysics and neuroscience literatures, and show that it either outperforms or is on par with state-of-the-art methods, making it an excellent off-the-shelf estimator for SBI for high-dimensional data sets.
Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.
The physical design process of large-scale designs is a time-consuming task, often requiring hours to days to complete, with routing being the most critical and complex step. As the the complexity of Integrated Circuits (ICs) increases, there is an increased demand for accurate routing quality prediction. Accurate congestion prediction aids in identifying design flaws early on, thereby accelerating circuit design and conserving resources. Despite the advancements in current congestion prediction methodologies, an essential aspect that has been largely overlooked is the spatial label-correlation between different grids in congestion prediction. The spatial label-correlation is a fundamental characteristic of circuit design, where the congestion status of a grid is not isolated but inherently influenced by the conditions of its neighboring grids. In order to fully exploit the inherent spatial label-correlation between neighboring grids, we propose a novel approach, {\ours}, i.e., VAriational Label-Correlation Enhancement for Congestion Prediction, which considers the local label-correlation in the congestion map, associating the estimated congestion value of each grid with a local label-correlation weight influenced by its surrounding grids. {\ours} leverages variational inference techniques to estimate this weight, thereby enhancing the regression model's performance by incorporating spatial dependencies. Experiment results validate the superior effectiveness of {\ours} on the public available \texttt{ISPD2011} and \texttt{DAC2012} benchmarks using the superblue circuit line.
Despite rapid progress in the voice style transfer (VST) field, recent zero-shot VST systems still lack the ability to transfer the voice style of a novel speaker. In this paper, we present HierVST, a hierarchical adaptive end-to-end zero-shot VST model. Without any text transcripts, we only use the speech dataset to train the model by utilizing hierarchical variational inference and self-supervised representation. In addition, we adopt a hierarchical adaptive generator that generates the pitch representation and waveform audio sequentially. Moreover, we utilize unconditional generation to improve the speaker-relative acoustic capacity in the acoustic representation. With a hierarchical adaptive structure, the model can adapt to a novel voice style and convert speech progressively. The experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms other VST models in zero-shot VST scenarios. Audio samples are available at \url{https://hiervst.github.io/}.
We prove that black-box variational inference (BBVI) with control variates, particularly the sticking-the-landing (STL) estimator, converges at a geometric (traditionally called "linear") rate under perfect variational family specification. In particular, we prove a quadratic bound on the gradient variance of the STL estimator, one which encompasses misspecified variational families. Combined with previous works on the quadratic variance condition, this directly implies convergence of BBVI with the use of projected stochastic gradient descent. For the projection operator, we consider a domain with triangular scale matrices, which the projection onto is computable in $\Theta(d)$ time, where $d$ is the dimensionality of the target posterior. We also improve existing analysis on the regular closed-form entropy gradient estimators, which enables comparison against the STL estimator, providing explicit non-asymptotic complexity guarantees for both.
Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over combinatorial space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and nonlinear functions. Despite recent progress towards efficient posterior inference over DAGs, existing methods are either limited to variational inference on node permutation matrices for linear causal models, leading to compromised inference accuracy, or continuous relaxation of adjacency matrices constrained by a DAG regularizer, which cannot ensure resulting graphs are DAGs. In this work, we introduce a scalable Bayesian causal discovery framework based on a combination of stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) that overcomes these limitations. Our approach directly samples DAGs from the posterior without requiring any DAG regularization, simultaneously draws function parameter samples and is applicable to both linear and nonlinear causal models. To enable our approach, we derive a novel equivalence to the permutation-based DAG learning, which opens up possibilities of using any relaxed gradient estimator defined over permutations. To our knowledge, this is the first framework applying gradient-based MCMC sampling for causal discovery. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our approach's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
Medical image segmentation is a challenging task, particularly due to inter- and intra-observer variability, even between medical experts. In this paper, we propose a novel model, called Probabilistic Inter-Observer and iNtra-Observer variation NetwOrk (Pionono). It captures the labeling behavior of each rater with a multidimensional probability distribution and integrates this information with the feature maps of the image to produce probabilistic segmentation predictions. The model is optimized by variational inference and can be trained end-to-end. It outperforms state-of-the-art models such as STAPLE, Probabilistic U-Net, and models based on confusion matrices. Additionally, Pionono predicts multiple coherent segmentation maps that mimic the rater's expert opinion, which provides additional valuable information for the diagnostic process. Experiments on real-world cancer segmentation datasets demonstrate the high accuracy and efficiency of Pionono, making it a powerful tool for medical image analysis.
Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended $\beta$-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.
In a probabilistic latent variable model, factorized (or mean-field) variational inference (F-VI) fits a separate parametric distribution for each latent variable. Amortized variational inference (A-VI) instead learns a common inference function, which maps each observation to its corresponding latent variable's approximate posterior. Typically, A-VI is used as a step in the training of variational autoencoders, however it stands to reason that A-VI could also be used as a general alternative to F-VI. In this paper we study when and why A-VI can be used for approximate Bayesian inference. We derive conditions on a latent variable model which are necessary, sufficient, and verifiable under which A-VI can attain F-VI's optimal solution, thereby closing the amortization gap. We prove these conditions are uniquely verified by simple hierarchical models, a broad class that encompasses many models in machine learning. We then show, on a broader class of models, how to expand the domain of AVI's inference function to improve its solution, and we provide examples, e.g. hidden Markov models, where the amortization gap cannot be closed.
In this paper, we introduce and analyze a variant of the Thompson sampling (TS) algorithm for contextual bandits. At each round, traditional TS requires samples from the current posterior distribution, which is usually intractable. To circumvent this issue, approximate inference techniques can be used and provide samples with distribution close to the posteriors. However, current approximate techniques yield to either poor estimation (Laplace approximation) or can be computationally expensive (MCMC methods, Ensemble sampling...). In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, Varational Inference Thompson sampling VITS, based on Gaussian Variational Inference. This scheme provides powerful posterior approximations which are easy to sample from, and is computationally efficient, making it an ideal choice for TS. In addition, we show that VITS achieves a sub-linear regret bound of the same order in the dimension and number of round as traditional TS for linear contextual bandit. Finally, we demonstrate experimentally the effectiveness of VITS on both synthetic and real world datasets.
Even though the brain operates in pure darkness, within the skull, it can infer the most likely causes of its sensory input. An approach to modelling this inference is to assume that the brain has a generative model of the world, which it can invert to infer the hidden causes behind its sensory stimuli, that is, perception. This assumption raises key questions: how to formulate the problem of designing brain-inspired generative models, how to invert them for the tasks of inference and learning, what is the appropriate loss function to be optimised, and, most importantly, what are the different choices of mean field approximation (MFA) and their implications for variational inference (VI).
Reinforcement learning can provide effective reasoning for sequential decision-making problems with variable dynamics. Such reasoning in practical implementation, however, poses a persistent challenge in interpreting the reward function and the corresponding optimal policy. Consequently, representing sequential decision-making problems as probabilistic inference can have considerable value, as, in principle, the inference offers diverse and powerful mathematical tools to infer the stochastic dynamics whilst suggesting a probabilistic interpretation of policy optimization. In this study, we propose a novel Adaptive Wasserstein Variational Optimization, namely AWaVO, to tackle these interpretability challenges. Our approach uses formal methods to achieve the interpretability for convergence guarantee, training transparency, and intrinsic decision-interpretation. To demonstrate its practicality, we showcase guaranteed interpretability with an optimal global convergence rate in simulation and in practical quadrotor tasks. In comparison with state-of-the-art benchmarks including TRPO-IPO, PCPO and CRPO, we empirically verify that AWaVO offers a reasonable trade-off between high performance and sufficient interpretability.
For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational parameters is twice the number of unknown model parameters. The resulting diagonal covariance structure coupled with unimodal behavior can be too restrictive when dealing with highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors in the form of Gaussian mixtures can capture any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy while maintaining some analytical tractability. Variational inference with Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. Coupled with the existence of multiple local minima due to nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference, these challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with an optimization stage in model parameter space in which local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace method. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. Robustness and scalability are demonstrated using synthetic tests. The methodology is applied to an inversion problem in structural dynamics involving unknown viscous damping coefficients.
Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However, weight-space priors are model-specific, can be difficult to interpret and are hard to specify. Instead, we apply a Dirichlet prior in predictive space and perform approximate function-space variational inference. To this end, we interpret conventional categorical predictions from stochastic neural network classifiers as samples from an implicit Dirichlet distribution. By adapting the inference, the same function-space prior can be combined with different models without affecting model architecture or size. We illustrate the flexibility and efficacy of such a prior with toy experiments and demonstrate scalability, improved uncertainty quantification and adversarial robustness with large-scale image classification experiments.
Unsupervised representation learning with variational inference relies heavily on independence assumptions over latent variables. Causal representation learning (CRL), however, argues that factors of variation in a dataset are, in fact, causally related. Allowing latent variables to be correlated, as a consequence of causal relationships, is more realistic and generalisable. So far, provably identifiable methods rely on: auxiliary information, weak labels, and interventional or even counterfactual data. Inspired by causal discovery with functional causal models, we propose a fully unsupervised representation learning method that considers a data generation process with a latent additive noise model (ANM). We encourage the latent space to follow a causal ordering via loss function based on the Hessian of the latent distribution.
We provide a rigorous analysis of training by variational inference (VI) of Bayesian neural networks in the two-layer and infinite-width case. We consider a regression problem with a regularized evidence lower bound (ELBO) which is decomposed into the expected log-likelihood of the data and the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the a priori distribution and the variational posterior. With an appropriate weighting of the KL, we prove a law of large numbers for three different training schemes: (i) the idealized case with exact estimation of a multiple Gaussian integral from the reparametrization trick, (ii) a minibatch scheme using Monte Carlo sampling, commonly known as Bayes by Backprop, and (iii) a new and computationally cheaper algorithm which we introduce as Minimal VI. An important result is that all methods converge to the same mean-field limit. Finally, we illustrate our results numerically and discuss the need for the derivation of a central limit theorem.
Graph collaborative filtering (GCF) has gained considerable attention in recommendation systems by leveraging graph learning techniques to enhance collaborative filtering (CF). One classical approach in GCF is to learn user and item embeddings with Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and utilize these embeddings for CF models. However, existing GCN-based methods are insufficient in generating satisfactory embeddings for CF models. This is because they fail to model complex node dependencies and variable relation dependencies from a given graph, making the learned embeddings fragile to uncover the root causes of user interests. In this work, we propose to integrate causal modeling with the learning process of GCN-based GCF models, leveraging causality-aware graph embeddings to capture complex causal relations in recommendations. We complete the task by 1) Causal Graph conceptualization, 2) Neural Causal Model parameterization and 3) Variational inference for Neural Causal Model. Our Neural Causal Model, called Neural Causal Graph Collaborative Filtering (NCGCF), enables causal modeling for GCN-based GCF to facilitate accurate recommendations. Extensive experiments show that NCGCF provides precise recommendations that align with user preferences. We release our code and processed datasets at https://github.com/Chrystalii/CNGCF.
Variational inference is an increasingly popular method in statistics and machine learning for approximating probability distributions. We developed LINFA (Library for Inference with Normalizing Flow and Annealing), a Python library for variational inference to accommodate computationally expensive models and difficult-to-sample distributions with dependent parameters. We discuss the theoretical background, capabilities, and performance of LINFA in various benchmarks. LINFA is publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/desResLab/LINFA.
We introduce a novel grid-independent model for learning partial differential equations (PDEs) from noisy and partial observations on irregular spatiotemporal grids. We propose a space-time continuous latent neural PDE model with an efficient probabilistic framework and a novel encoder design for improved data efficiency and grid independence. The latent state dynamics are governed by a PDE model that combines the collocation method and the method of lines. We employ amortized variational inference for approximate posterior estimation and utilize a multiple shooting technique for enhanced training speed and stability. Our model demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on complex synthetic and real-world datasets, overcoming limitations of previous approaches and effectively handling partially-observed data. The proposed model outperforms recent methods, showing its potential to advance data-driven PDE modeling and enabling robust, grid-independent modeling of complex partially-observed dynamic processes.
This paper strives for domain generalization, where models are trained exclusively on source domains before being deployed on unseen target domains. We follow the strict separation of source training and target testing, but exploit the value of the unlabeled target data itself during inference. We make three contributions. First, we propose probabilistic pseudo-labeling of target samples to generalize the source-trained model to the target domain at test time. We formulate the generalization at test time as a variational inference problem, by modeling pseudo labels as distributions, to consider the uncertainty during generalization and alleviate the misleading signal of inaccurate pseudo labels. Second, we learn variational neighbor labels that incorporate the information of neighboring target samples to generate more robust pseudo labels. Third, to learn the ability to incorporate more representative target information and generate more precise and robust variational neighbor labels, we introduce a meta-generalization stage during training to simulate the generalization procedure. Experiments on seven widely-used datasets demonstrate the benefits, abilities, and effectiveness of our proposal.