Tensor networks are efficient for extremely high-dimensional representation, but their model selection, known as tensor network structure search (TN-SS), is a challenging problem. Although several works have targeted TN-SS, most existing algorithms are manually crafted heuristics with poor performance, suffering from the curse of dimensionality and local convergence. In this work, we jump out of the box, studying how to harness large language models (LLMs) to automatically discover new TN-SS algorithms, replacing the involvement of human experts. By observing how human experts innovate in research, we model their common workflow and propose an automatic algorithm discovery framework called tnGPS. The proposed framework is an elaborate prompting pipeline that instruct LLMs to generate new TN-SS algorithms through iterative refinement and enhancement. The experimental results demonstrate that the algorithms discovered by tnGPS exhibit superior performance in benchmarks compared to the current state-of-the-art methods.
The recent trend towards the application of deep structured techniques has revealed the limits of huge models in natural language processing. This has reawakened the interest in traditional machine learning algorithms, which have proved still to be competitive in certain contexts, in particular low-resource settings. In parallel, model selection has become an essential task to boost performance at reasonable cost, even more so when we talk about processes involving domains where the training and/or computational resources are scarce. Against this backdrop, we evaluate the early estimation of learning curves as a practical mechanism for selecting the most appropriate model in scenarios characterized by the use of non-deep learners in resource-lean settings. On the basis of a formal approximation model previously evaluated under conditions of wide availability of training and validation resources, we study the reliability of such an approach in a different and much more demanding operationalenvironment. Using as case study the generation of PoS taggers for Galician, a language belonging to the Western Ibero-Romance group, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.
Large Language Model (LLM) leaderboards based on benchmark rankings are regularly used to guide practitioners in model selection. Often, the published leaderboard rankings are taken at face value - we show this is a (potentially costly) mistake. Under existing leaderboards, the relative performance of LLMs is highly sensitive to (often minute) details. We show that for popular multiple-choice question benchmarks (e.g., MMLU), minor perturbations to the benchmark, such as changing the order of choices or the method of answer selection, result in changes in rankings up to 8 positions. We explain this phenomenon by conducting systematic experiments over three broad categories of benchmark perturbations and identifying the sources of this behavior. Our analysis results in several best-practice recommendations, including the advantage of a hybrid scoring method for answer selection. Our study highlights the dangers of relying on simple benchmark evaluations and charts the path for more robust evaluation schemes on the existing benchmarks. The code for this paper is available at https://github.com/National-Center-for-AI-Saudi-Arabia/lm-evaluation-harness.
Non-active adaptive sampling is a way of building machine learning models from a training data base which are supposed to dynamically and automatically derive guaranteed sample size. In this context and regardless of the strategy used in both scheduling and generating of weak predictors, a proposal for calculating absolute convergence and error thresholds is described. We not only make it possible to establish when the quality of the model no longer increases, but also supplies a proximity condition to estimate in absolute terms how close it is to achieving such a goal, thus supporting decision making for fine-tuning learning parameters in model selection. The technique proves its correctness and completeness with respect to our working hypotheses, in addition to strengthening the robustness of the sampling scheme. Tests meet our expectations and illustrate the proposal in the domain of natural language processing, taking the generation of part-of-speech taggers as case study.
Spiking neural networks (SNNs), inspired by the spiking behavior of biological neurons, provide a unique pathway for capturing the intricacies of temporal data. However, applying SNNs to time-series forecasting is challenging due to difficulties in effective temporal alignment, complexities in encoding processes, and the absence of standardized guidelines for model selection. In this paper, we propose a framework for SNNs in time-series forecasting tasks, leveraging the efficiency of spiking neurons in processing temporal information. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed SNN-based approaches achieve comparable or superior results to traditional time-series forecasting methods on diverse benchmarks with much less energy consumption. Furthermore, we conduct detailed analysis experiments to assess the SNN's capacity to capture temporal dependencies within time-series data, offering valuable insights into its nuanced strengths and effectiveness in modeling the intricate dynamics of temporal data. Our study contributes to the expanding field of SNNs and offers a promising alternative for time-series forecasting tasks, presenting a pathway for the development of more biologically inspired and temporally aware forecasting models. Our code is available at https://github.com/microsoft/SeqSNN.
Matrix completion estimators are employed in causal panel data models to regulate the rank of the underlying factor model using nuclear norm minimization. This convex optimization problem enables concurrent regularization of a potentially high-dimensional set of covariates to shrink the model size. For valid finite sample inference, we adopt a permutation-based approach and prove its validity for any treatment assignment mechanism. Simulations illustrate the consistency of the proposed estimator in parameter estimation and variable selection. An application to public health policies in Germany demonstrates the data-driven model selection feature on empirical data and finds no effect of travel restrictions on the containment of severe Covid-19 infections.
Predictive multiplicity refers to the phenomenon in which classification tasks may admit multiple competing models that achieve almost-equally-optimal performance, yet generate conflicting outputs for individual samples. This presents significant concerns, as it can potentially result in systemic exclusion, inexplicable discrimination, and unfairness in practical applications. Measuring and mitigating predictive multiplicity, however, is computationally challenging due to the need to explore all such almost-equally-optimal models, known as the Rashomon set, in potentially huge hypothesis spaces. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework that utilizes dropout techniques for exploring models in the Rashomon set. We provide rigorous theoretical derivations to connect the dropout parameters to properties of the Rashomon set, and empirically evaluate our framework through extensive experimentation. Numerical results show that our technique consistently outperforms baselines in terms of the effectiveness of predictive multiplicity metric estimation, with runtime speedup up to $20\times \sim 5000\times$. With efficient Rashomon set exploration and metric estimation, mitigation of predictive multiplicity is then achieved through dropout ensemble and model selection.
In recent years, there has been an increasing recognition that when machine learning (ML) algorithms are used to automate decisions, they may mistreat individuals or groups, with legal, ethical, or economic implications. Recommender systems are prominent examples of these machine learning (ML) systems that aid users in making decisions. The majority of past literature research on RS fairness treats user and item fairness concerns independently, ignoring the fact that recommender systems function in a two-sided marketplace. In this paper, we propose CP-FairRank, an optimization-based re-ranking algorithm that seamlessly integrates fairness constraints from both the consumer and producer side in a joint objective framework. The framework is generalizable and may take into account varied fairness settings based on group segmentation, recommendation model selection, and domain, which is one of its key characteristics. For instance, we demonstrate that the system may jointly increase consumer and producer fairness when (un)protected consumer groups are defined on the basis of their activity level and main-streamness, while producer groups are defined according to their popularity level. For empirical validation, through large-scale on eight datasets and four mainstream collaborative filtering (CF) recommendation models, we demonstrate that our proposed strategy is able to improve both consumer and producer fairness without compromising or very little overall recommendation quality, demonstrating the role algorithms may play in avoiding data biases.
This study presents a Bayesian maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (MAP) framework for dynamical system identification from time-series data. This is shown to be equivalent to a generalized Tikhonov regularization, providing a rational justification for the choice of the residual and regularization terms, respectively, from the negative logarithms of the likelihood and prior distributions. In addition to the estimation of model coefficients, the Bayesian interpretation gives access to the full apparatus for Bayesian inference, including the ranking of models, the quantification of model uncertainties and the estimation of unknown (nuisance) hyperparameters. Two Bayesian algorithms, joint maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (JMAP) and variational Bayesian approximation (VBA), are compared to the {LASSO, ridge regression and SINDy algorithms for sparse} regression, by application to several dynamical systems with added {Gaussian or Laplace} noise. For multivariate Gaussian likelihood and prior distributions, the Bayesian formulation gives Gaussian posterior and evidence distributions, in which the numerator terms can be expressed in terms of the Mahalanobis distance or ``Gaussian norm'' $||\vec{y}-\hat{\vec{y}}||^2_{M^{-1}} = (\vec{y}-\hat{\vec{y}})^\top {M^{-1}} (\vec{y}-\hat{\vec{y}})$, where $\vec{y}$ is a vector variable, $\hat{\vec{y}}$ is its estimator and $M$ is the covariance matrix. The posterior Gaussian norm is shown to provide a robust metric for quantitative model selection {for the different systems and noise models examined.}
In the realm of Earth science, effective cloud property retrieval, encompassing cloud masking, cloud phase classification, and cloud optical thickness (COT) prediction, remains pivotal. Traditional methodologies necessitate distinct models for each sensor instrument due to their unique spectral characteristics. Recent strides in Earth Science research have embraced machine learning and deep learning techniques to extract features from satellite datasets' spectral observations. However, prevailing approaches lack novel architectures accounting for hierarchical relationships among retrieval tasks. Moreover, considering the spectral diversity among existing sensors, the development of models with robust generalization capabilities over different sensor datasets is imperative. Surprisingly, there is a dearth of methodologies addressing the selection of an optimal model for diverse datasets. In response, this paper introduces MT-HCCAR, an end-to-end deep learning model employing multi-task learning to simultaneously tackle cloud masking, cloud phase retrieval (classification tasks), and COT prediction (a regression task). The MT-HCCAR integrates a hierarchical classification network (HC) and a classification-assisted attention-based regression network (CAR), enhancing precision and robustness in cloud labeling and COT prediction. Additionally, a comprehensive model selection method rooted in K-fold cross-validation, one standard error rule, and two introduced performance scores is proposed to select the optimal model over three simulated satellite datasets OCI, VIIRS, and ABI. The experiments comparing MT-HCCAR with baseline methods, the ablation studies, and the model selection affirm the superiority and the generalization capabilities of MT-HCCAR.
As a technique that can compactly represent complex patterns, machine learning has significant potential for predictive inference. K-fold cross-validation (CV) is the most common approach to ascertaining the likelihood that a machine learning outcome is generated by chance, and it frequently outperforms conventional hypothesis testing. This improvement uses measures directly obtained from machine learning classifications, such as accuracy, that do not have a parametric description. To approach a frequentist analysis within machine learning pipelines, a permutation test or simple statistics from data partitions (i.e., folds) can be added to estimate confidence intervals. Unfortunately, neither parametric nor non-parametric tests solve the inherent problems of partitioning small sample-size datasets and learning from heterogeneous data sources. The fact that machine learning strongly depends on the learning parameters and the distribution of data across folds recapitulates familiar difficulties around excess false positives and replication. A novel statistical test based on K-fold CV and the Upper Bound of the actual risk (K-fold CUBV) is proposed, where uncertain predictions of machine learning with CV are bounded by the worst case through the evaluation of concentration inequalities. Probably Approximately Correct-Bayesian upper bounds for linear classifiers in combination with K-fold CV are derived and used to estimate the actual risk. The performance with simulated and neuroimaging datasets suggests that K-fold CUBV is a robust criterion for detecting effects and validating accuracy values obtained from machine learning and classical CV schemes, while avoiding excess false positives.
For software that relies on machine-learned functionality, model selection is key to finding the right model for the task with desired performance characteristics. Evaluating a model requires developers to i) select from many models (e.g. the Hugging face model repository), ii) select evaluation metrics and training strategy, and iii) tailor trade-offs based on the problem domain. However, current evaluation approaches are either ad-hoc resulting in sub-optimal model selection or brute force leading to wasted compute. In this work, we present \toolname, a novel tool to automatically select and evaluate models based on the application scenario provided in natural language. We leverage the reasoning capabilities of large language models to propose a training strategy and extract desired trade-offs from a problem description. \toolname~features a resource-efficient experimentation engine that integrates constraints and trade-offs based on the problem into the model selection process. Our preliminary evaluation demonstrates that \toolname{} is both efficient and accurate compared to ad-hoc evaluations and brute force. This work presents an important step toward energy-efficient tools to help reduce the environmental impact caused by the growing demand for software with machine-learned functionality.
We present algorithms that substantially accelerate partition-based cross-validation for machine learning models that require matrix products $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{Y}$. Our algorithms have applications in model selection for, for example, principal component analysis (PCA), principal component regression (PCR), ridge regression (RR), ordinary least squares (OLS), and partial least squares (PLS). Our algorithms support all combinations of column-wise centering and scaling of $\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{Y}$, and we demonstrate in our accompanying implementation that this adds only a manageable, practical constant over efficient variants without preprocessing. We prove the correctness of our algorithms under a fold-based partitioning scheme and show that the running time is independent of the number of folds; that is, they have the same time complexity as that of computing $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{Y}$ and space complexity equivalent to storing $\mathbf{X}$, $\mathbf{Y}$, $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}$, and $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{Y}$. Importantly, unlike alternatives found in the literature, we avoid data leakage due to preprocessing. We achieve these results by eliminating redundant computations in the overlap between training partitions. Concretely, we show how to manipulate $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{Y}$ using only samples from the validation partition to obtain the preprocessed training partition-wise $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{X}$ and $\mathbf{X}^\mathbf{T}\mathbf{Y}$. To our knowledge, we are the first to derive correct and efficient cross-validation algorithms for any of the $16$ combinations of column-wise centering and scaling, for which we also prove only $12$ give distinct matrix products.
Deep learning has revolutionized the last decade, being at the forefront of extraordinary advances in a wide range of tasks including computer vision, natural language processing, and reinforcement learning, to name but a few. However, it is well-known that deep models trained via maximum likelihood estimation tend to be overconfident and give poorly-calibrated predictions. Bayesian deep learning attempts to address this by placing priors on the model parameters, which are then combined with a likelihood to perform posterior inference. Unfortunately, for deep models, the true posterior is intractable, forcing the user to resort to approximations. In this thesis, we explore the use of variational inference (VI) as an approximation, as it is unique in simultaneously approximating the posterior and providing a lower bound to the marginal likelihood. If tight enough, this lower bound can be used to optimize hyperparameters and to facilitate model selection. However, this capacity has rarely been used to its full extent for Bayesian neural networks, likely because the approximate posteriors typically used in practice can lack the flexibility to effectively bound the marginal likelihood. We therefore explore three aspects of Bayesian learning for deep models: 1) we ask whether it is necessary to perform inference over as many parameters as possible, or whether it is reasonable to treat many of them as optimizable hyperparameters; 2) we propose a variational posterior that provides a unified view of inference in Bayesian neural networks and deep Gaussian processes; 3) we demonstrate how VI can be improved in certain deep Gaussian process models by analytically removing symmetries from the posterior, and performing inference on Gram matrices instead of features. We hope that our contributions will provide a stepping stone to fully realize the promises of VI in the future.
This document presents a stock market analysis conducted on a dataset consisting of 750 instances and 16 attributes donated in 2014-10-23. The analysis includes an exploratory data analysis (EDA) section, feature engineering, data preparation, model selection, and insights from the analysis. The Fama French 3-factor model is also utilized in the analysis. The results of the analysis are presented, with linear regression being the best-performing model.
Online model selection involves selecting a model from a set of candidate models 'on the fly' to perform prediction on a stream of data. The choice of candidate models henceforth has a crucial impact on the performance. Although employing a larger set of candidate models naturally leads to more flexibility in model selection, this may be infeasible in cases where prediction tasks are performed on edge devices with limited memory. Faced with this challenge, the present paper proposes an online federated model selection framework where a group of learners (clients) interacts with a server with sufficient memory such that the server stores all candidate models. However, each client only chooses to store a subset of models that can be fit into its memory and performs its own prediction task using one of the stored models. Furthermore, employing the proposed algorithm, clients and the server collaborate to fine-tune models to adapt them to a non-stationary environment. Theoretical analysis proves that the proposed algorithm enjoys sub-linear regret with respect to the best model in hindsight. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
Diffusion models have opened up new avenues for the field of image generation, resulting in the proliferation of high-quality models shared on open-source platforms. However, a major challenge persists in current text-to-image systems are often unable to handle diverse inputs, or are limited to single model results. Current unified attempts often fall into two orthogonal aspects: i) parse Diverse Prompts in input stage; ii) activate expert model to output. To combine the best of both worlds, we propose DiffusionGPT, which leverages Large Language Models (LLM) to offer a unified generation system capable of seamlessly accommodating various types of prompts and integrating domain-expert models. DiffusionGPT constructs domain-specific Trees for various generative models based on prior knowledge. When provided with an input, the LLM parses the prompt and employs the Trees-of-Thought to guide the selection of an appropriate model, thereby relaxing input constraints and ensuring exceptional performance across diverse domains. Moreover, we introduce Advantage Databases, where the Tree-of-Thought is enriched with human feedback, aligning the model selection process with human preferences. Through extensive experiments and comparisons, we demonstrate the effectiveness of DiffusionGPT, showcasing its potential for pushing the boundaries of image synthesis in diverse domains.
Concept explanation is a popular approach for examining how human-interpretable concepts impact the predictions of a model. However, most existing methods for concept explanations are tailored to specific models. To address this issue, this paper focuses on model-agnostic measures. Specifically, we propose an approach to concept explanations that satisfy three natural axioms: linearity, recursivity, and similarity. We then establish connections with previous concept explanation methods, offering insight into their varying semantic meanings. Experimentally, we demonstrate the utility of the new method by applying it in different scenarios: for model selection, optimizer selection, and model improvement using a kind of prompt editing for zero-shot vision language models.
Machine learning (ML) models are only as good as the data they are trained on. But recent studies have found datasets widely used to train and evaluate ML models, e.g. ImageNet, to have pervasive labeling errors. Erroneous labels on the train set hurt ML models' ability to generalize, and they impact evaluation and model selection using the test set. Consequently, learning in the presence of labeling errors is an active area of research, yet this field lacks a comprehensive benchmark to evaluate these methods. Most of these methods are evaluated on a few computer vision datasets with significant variance in the experimental protocols. With such a large pool of methods and inconsistent evaluation, it is also unclear how ML practitioners can choose the right models to assess label quality in their data. To this end, we propose a benchmarking environment AQuA to rigorously evaluate methods that enable machine learning in the presence of label noise. We also introduce a design space to delineate concrete design choices of label error detection models. We hope that our proposed design space and benchmark enable practitioners to choose the right tools to improve their label quality and that our benchmark enables objective and rigorous evaluation of machine learning tools facing mislabeled data.
Various methods have recently been proposed to estimate causal effects with confidence intervals that are uniformly valid over a set of data generating processes when high-dimensional nuisance models are estimated by post-model-selection or machine learning estimators. These methods typically require that all the confounders are observed to ensure identification of the effects. We contribute by showing how valid semiparametric inference can be obtained in the presence of unobserved confounders and high-dimensional nuisance models. We propose uncertainty intervals which allow for unobserved confounding, and show that the resulting inference is valid when the amount of unobserved confounding is small relative to the sample size; the latter is formalized in terms of convergence rates. Simulation experiments illustrate the finite sample properties of the proposed intervals and investigate an alternative procedure that improves the empirical coverage of the intervals when the amount of unobserved confounding is large. Finally, a case study on the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight is used to illustrate the use of the methods introduced to perform a sensitivity analysis to unobserved confounding.