Interactive Recommender Systems (IRS) have been increasingly used in various domains, including personalized article recommendation, social media, and online advertising. However, IRS faces significant challenges in providing accurate recommendations under limited observations, especially in the context of interactive collaborative filtering. These problems are exacerbated by the cold start problem and data sparsity problem. Existing Multi-Armed Bandit methods, despite their carefully designed exploration strategies, often struggle to provide satisfactory results in the early stages due to the lack of interaction data. Furthermore, these methods are computationally intractable when applied to non-linear models, limiting their applicability. To address these challenges, we propose a novel method, the Interactive Graph Convolutional Filtering model. Our proposed method extends interactive collaborative filtering into the graph model to enhance the performance of collaborative filtering between users and items. We incorporate variational inference techniques to overcome the computational hurdles posed by non-linear models. Furthermore, we employ Bayesian meta-learning methods to effectively address the cold-start problem and derive theoretical regret bounds for our proposed method, ensuring a robust performance guarantee. Extensive experimental results on three real-world datasets validate our method and demonstrate its superiority over existing baselines.
The Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) has attracted extensive attention for modeling complex nonlinear dynamical systems. However, the existing GPSSM employs separate Gaussian processes (GPs) for each latent state dimension, leading to escalating computational complexity and parameter proliferation, thus posing challenges for modeling dynamical systems with high-dimensional latent states. To surmount this obstacle, we propose to integrate the efficient transformed Gaussian process (ETGP) into the GPSSM, which involves pushing a shared GP through multiple normalizing flows to efficiently model the transition function in high-dimensional latent state space. Additionally, we develop a corresponding variational inference algorithm that surpasses existing methods in terms of parameter count and computational complexity. Experimental results on diverse synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate the efficiency of the proposed method, while also demonstrating its ability to achieve similar inference performance compared to existing methods. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/zhidilin/gpssmProj}.
We propose a surrogate function for efficient yet principled use of score-based priors in Bayesian imaging. We consider ill-posed inverse imaging problems in which one aims for a clean image posterior given incomplete or noisy measurements. Since the measurements do not uniquely determine a true image, a prior is needed to constrain the solution space. Recent work turned score-based diffusion models into principled priors for solving ill-posed imaging problems by appealing to an ODE-based log-probability function. However, evaluating the ODE is computationally inefficient and inhibits posterior estimation of high-dimensional images. Our proposed surrogate prior is based on the evidence lower bound of a score-based diffusion model. We demonstrate the surrogate prior on variational inference for efficient approximate posterior sampling of large images. Compared to the exact prior in previous work, our surrogate accelerates optimization of the variational image distribution by at least two orders of magnitude. We also find that our principled approach gives more accurate posterior estimation than non-variational diffusion-based approaches that involve hyperparameter-tuning at inference. Our work establishes a practical path forward for using score-based diffusion models as general-purpose image priors.
Given observed data and a probabilistic generative model, Bayesian inference searches for the distribution of the model's parameters that could have yielded the data. Inference is challenging for large population studies where millions of measurements are performed over a cohort of hundreds of subjects, resulting in a massive parameter space. This large cardinality renders off-the-shelf Variational Inference (VI) computationally impractical. In this work, we design structured VI families that efficiently tackle large population studies. Our main idea is to share the parameterization and learning across the different i.i.d. variables in a generative model, symbolized by the model's \textit{plates}. We name this concept \textit{plate amortization}. Contrary to off-the-shelf stochastic VI, which slows down inference, plate amortization results in orders of magnitude faster to train variational distributions. Applied to large-scale hierarchical problems, PAVI yields expressive, parsimoniously parameterized VI with an affordable training time. This faster convergence effectively unlocks inference in those large regimes. We illustrate the practical utility of PAVI through a challenging Neuroimaging example featuring 400 million latent parameters, demonstrating a significant step towards scalable and expressive Variational Inference.
Despite the widespread utilization of Gaussian process models for versatile nonparametric modeling, they exhibit limitations in effectively capturing abrupt changes in function smoothness and accommodating relationships with heteroscedastic errors. Addressing these shortcomings, the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HeGP) regression seeks to introduce flexibility by acknowledging the variability of residual variances across covariates in the regression model. In this work, we extend the HeGP concept, expanding its scope beyond regression tasks to encompass classification and state-space models. To achieve this, we propose a novel framework where the Gaussian process is coupled with a covariate-induced precision matrix process, adopting a mixture formulation. This approach enables the modeling of heteroscedastic covariance functions across covariates. To mitigate the computational challenges posed by sampling, we employ variational inference to approximate the posterior and facilitate posterior predictive modeling. Additionally, our training process leverages an EM algorithm featuring closed-form M-step updates to efficiently evaluate the heteroscedastic covariance function. A notable feature of our model is its consistent performance on multivariate responses, accommodating various types (continuous or categorical) seamlessly. Through a combination of simulations and real-world applications in climatology, we illustrate the model's prowess and advantages. By overcoming the limitations of traditional Gaussian process models, our proposed framework offers a robust and versatile tool for a wide array of applications.
Channel estimation in reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RIS)-aided systems is crucial for optimal configuration of the RIS and various downstream tasks such as user localization. In RIS-aided systems, channel estimation involves estimating two channels for the user-RIS (UE-RIS) and RIS-base station (RIS-BS) links. In the literature, two approaches are proposed: (i) cascaded channel estimation where the two channels are collapsed into a single one and estimated using training signals at the BS, and (ii) separate channel estimation that estimates each channel separately either in a passive or semi-passive RIS setting. In this work, we study the separate channel estimation problem in a fully passive RIS-aided millimeter-wave (mmWave) single-user single-input multiple-output (SIMO) communication system. First, we adopt a variational-inference (VI) approach to jointly estimate the UE-RIS and RIS-BS instantaneous channel state information (I-CSI). In particular, auxiliary posterior distributions of the I-CSI are learned through the maximization of the evidence lower bound. However, estimating the I-CSI for both links in every coherence block results in a high signaling overhead to control the RIS in scenarios with highly mobile users. Thus, we extend our first approach to estimate the slow-varying statistical CSI of the UE-RIS link overcoming the highly variant I-CSI. Precisely, our second method estimates the I-CSI of RIS-BS channel and the UE-RIS channel covariance matrix (CCM) directly from the uplink training signals in a fully passive RIS-aided system. The simulation results demonstrate that using maximum a posteriori channel estimation using the auxiliary posteriors can provide a capacity that approaches the capacity with perfect CSI.
Bayesian reinforcement learning (RL) offers a principled and elegant approach for sequential decision making under uncertainty. Most notably, Bayesian agents do not face an exploration/exploitation dilemma, a major pathology of frequentist methods. However theoretical understanding of model-free approaches is lacking. In this paper, we introduce a novel Bayesian model-free formulation and the first analysis showing that model-free approaches can yield Bayes-optimal policies. We show all existing model-free approaches make approximations that yield policies that can be arbitrarily Bayes-suboptimal. As a first step towards model-free Bayes optimality, we introduce the Bayesian exploration network (BEN) which uses normalising flows to model both the aleatoric uncertainty (via density estimation) and epistemic uncertainty (via variational inference) in the Bellman operator. In the limit of complete optimisation, BEN learns true Bayes-optimal policies, but like in variational expectation-maximisation, partial optimisation renders our approach tractable. Empirical results demonstrate that BEN can learn true Bayes-optimal policies in tasks where existing model-free approaches fail.
Climate projections using data driven machine learning models acting as emulators, is one of the prevailing areas of research to enable policy makers make informed decisions. Use of machine learning emulators as surrogates for computationally heavy GCM simulators reduces time and carbon footprints. In this direction, ClimateBench [1] is a recently curated benchmarking dataset for evaluating the performance of machine learning emulators designed for climate data. Recent studies have reported that despite being considered fundamental, regression models offer several advantages pertaining to climate emulations. In particular, by leveraging the kernel trick, regression models can capture complex relationships and improve their predictive capabilities. This study focuses on evaluating non-linear regression models using the aforementioned dataset. Specifically, we compare the emulation capabilities of three non-linear regression models. Among them, Gaussian Process Regressor demonstrates the best-in-class performance against standard evaluation metrics used for climate field emulation studies. However, Gaussian Process Regression suffers from being computational resource hungry in terms of space and time complexity. Alternatively, Support Vector and Kernel Ridge models also deliver competitive results and but there are certain trade-offs to be addressed. Additionally, we are actively investigating the performance of composite kernels and techniques such as variational inference to further enhance the performance of the regression models and effectively model complex non-linear patterns, including phenomena like precipitation.
Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) greatly enriches the expressiveness of variational families by considering implicit variational distributions defined in a hierarchical manner. However, due to the intractable densities of variational distributions, current SIVI approaches often use surrogate evidence lower bounds (ELBOs) or employ expensive inner-loop MCMC runs for unbiased ELBOs for training. In this paper, we propose SIVI-SM, a new method for SIVI based on an alternative training objective via score matching. Leveraging the hierarchical structure of semi-implicit variational families, the score matching objective allows a minimax formulation where the intractable variational densities can be naturally handled with denoising score matching. We show that SIVI-SM closely matches the accuracy of MCMC and outperforms ELBO-based SIVI methods in a variety of Bayesian inference tasks.
Symbolic regression with polynomial neural networks and polynomial neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are two recent and powerful approaches for equation recovery of many science and engineering problems. However, these methods provide point estimates for the model parameters and are currently unable to accommodate noisy data. We address this challenge by developing and validating the following Bayesian inference methods: the Laplace approximation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods, and variational inference. We have found the Laplace approximation to be the best method for this class of problems. Our work can be easily extended to the broader class of symbolic neural networks to which the polynomial neural network belongs.
Network complexity and computational efficiency have become increasingly significant aspects of deep learning. Sparse deep learning addresses these challenges by recovering a sparse representation of the underlying target function by reducing heavily over-parameterized deep neural networks. Specifically, deep neural architectures compressed via structured sparsity (e.g. node sparsity) provide low latency inference, higher data throughput, and reduced energy consumption. In this paper, we explore two well-established shrinkage techniques, Lasso and Horseshoe, for model compression in Bayesian neural networks. To this end, we propose structurally sparse Bayesian neural networks which systematically prune excessive nodes with (i) Spike-and-Slab Group Lasso (SS-GL), and (ii) Spike-and-Slab Group Horseshoe (SS-GHS) priors, and develop computationally tractable variational inference including continuous relaxation of Bernoulli variables. We establish the contraction rates of the variational posterior of our proposed models as a function of the network topology, layer-wise node cardinalities, and bounds on the network weights. We empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our models compared to the baseline models in prediction accuracy, model compression, and inference latency.
Stochastic variational inference and its derivatives in the form of variational autoencoders enjoy the ability to perform Bayesian inference on large datasets in an efficient manner. However, performing inference with a VAE requires a certain design choice (i.e. reparameterization trick) to allow unbiased and low variance gradient estimation, restricting the types of models that can be created. To overcome this challenge, an alternative estimator based on natural evolution strategies is proposed. This estimator does not make assumptions about the kind of distributions used, allowing for the creation of models that would otherwise not have been possible under the VAE framework.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming one of the key technologies of this century. The majority of results in AI thus far have been achieved using deep neural networks trained with the error backpropagation learning algorithm. However, the ubiquitous adoption of this approach has highlighted some important limitations such as substantial computational cost, difficulty in quantifying uncertainty, lack of robustness, unreliability, and biological implausibility. It is possible that addressing these limitations may require schemes that are inspired and guided by neuroscience theories. One such theory, called predictive coding (PC), has shown promising performance in machine intelligence tasks, exhibiting exciting properties that make it potentially valuable for the machine learning community: PC can model information processing in different brain areas, can be used in cognitive control and robotics, and has a solid mathematical grounding in variational inference, offering a powerful inversion scheme for a specific class of continuous-state generative models. With the hope of foregrounding research in this direction, we survey the literature that has contributed to this perspective, highlighting the many ways that PC might play a role in the future of machine learning and computational intelligence at large.
We propose a novel method to learn intractable distributions from their samples. The main idea is to use a parametric distribution model, such as a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), to approximate intractable distributions by minimizing the KL-divergence. Based on this idea, there are two challenges that need to be addressed. First, the computational complexity of KL-divergence is unacceptable when the dimensions of distributions increases. The Monte-Carlo Marginalization (MCMarg) is proposed to address this issue. The second challenge is the differentiability of the optimization process, since the target distribution is intractable. We handle this problem by using Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). The proposed approach is a powerful tool to learn complex distributions and the entire process is differentiable. Thus, it can be a better substitute of the variational inference in variational auto-encoders (VAE). One strong evidence of the benefit of our method is that the distributions learned by the proposed approach can generate better images even based on a pre-trained VAE's decoder. Based on this point, we devise a distribution learning auto-encoder which is better than VAE under the same network architecture. Experiments on standard dataset and synthetic data demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach.
Neural networks (NN) have become almost ubiquitous with image classification, but in their standard form produce point estimates, with no measure of confidence. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) provide uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NN predictions and estimates through the posterior distribution. As NN are applied in more high-consequence applications, UQ is becoming a requirement. BNN provide a solution to this problem by not only giving accurate predictions and estimates, but also an interval that includes reasonable values within a desired probability. Despite their positive attributes, BNN are notoriously difficult and time consuming to train. Traditional Bayesian methods use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), but this is often brushed aside as being too slow. The most common method is variational inference (VI) due to its fast computation, but there are multiple concerns with its efficacy. We apply and compare MCMC- and VI-trained BNN in the context of target detection in hyperspectral imagery (HSI), where materials of interest can be identified by their unique spectral signature. This is a challenging field, due to the numerous permuting effects practical collection of HSI has on measured spectra. Both models are trained using out-of-the-box tools on a high fidelity HSI target detection scene. Both MCMC- and VI-trained BNN perform well overall at target detection on a simulated HSI scene. This paper provides an example of how to utilize the benefits of UQ, but also to increase awareness that different training methods can give different results for the same model. If sufficient computational resources are available, the best approach rather than the fastest or most efficient should be used, especially for high consequence problems.
Neural population responses in sensory systems are driven by external physical stimuli. This stimulus-response relationship is typically characterized by receptive fields, which have been estimated by neural system identification approaches. Such models usually requires a large amount of training data, yet, the recording time for animal experiments is limited, giving rise to epistemic uncertainty for the learned neural transfer functions. While deep neural network models have demonstrated excellent power on neural prediction, they usually do not provide the uncertainty of the resulting neural representations and derived statistics, such as the stimuli driving neurons optimally, from in silico experiments. Here, we present a Bayesian system identification approach to predict neural responses to visual stimuli, and explore whether explicitly modeling network weight variability can be beneficial for identifying neural response properties. To this end, we use variational inference to estimate the posterior distribution of each model weight given the training data. Tests with different neural datasets demonstrate that this method can achieve higher or comparable performance on neural prediction, with a much higher data efficiency compared to Monte Carlo dropout methods and traditional models using point estimates of the model parameters. Furthermore, our approach enables to identify response properties with credible intervals and perform statistical test for the learned neural features, which avoid the idiosyncrasy of a single model. Finally, in silico experiments show that our model generates stimuli driving neuronal activity significantly better than traditional models, particularly in the limited-data regime.
Traditional deep learning (DL) models are powerful classifiers, but many approaches do not provide uncertainties for their estimates. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DL models have received increased attention in the literature due to their usefulness in decision making, particularly for high-consequence decisions. However, there has been little research done on how to evaluate the quality of such methods. We use statistical methods of frequentist interval coverage and interval width to evaluate the quality of credible intervals, and expected calibration error to evaluate classification predicted confidence. These metrics are evaluated on Bayesian neural networks (BNN) fit using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference (VI), bootstrapped neural networks (NN), Deep Ensembles (DE), and Monte Carlo (MC) dropout. We apply these different UQ for DL methods to a hyperspectral image target detection problem and show the inconsistency of the different methods' results and the necessity of a UQ quality metric. To reconcile these differences and choose a UQ method that appropriately quantifies the uncertainty, we create a simulated data set with fully parameterized probability distribution for a two-class classification problem. The gold standard MCMC performs the best overall, and the bootstrapped NN is a close second, requiring the same computational expense as DE. Through this comparison, we demonstrate that, for a given data set, different models can produce uncertainty estimates of markedly different quality. This in turn points to a great need for principled assessment methods of UQ quality in DL applications.
Skew-t copula models are attractive for the modeling of financial data because they allow for asymmetric and extreme tail dependence. We show that the copula implicit in the skew-t distribution of Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) allows for a higher level of pairwise asymmetric dependence than two popular alternative skew-t copulas. Estimation of this copula in high dimensions is challenging, and we propose a fast and accurate Bayesian variational inference (VI) approach to do so. The method uses a generative representation of the skew-t distribution to define an augmented posterior that can be approximated accurately. A stochastic gradient ascent algorithm is used to solve the variational optimization. The methodology is used to estimate skew-t factor copula models with up to 15 factors for intraday returns from 2017 to 2021 on 93 U.S. equities. The copula captures substantial heterogeneity in asymmetric dependence over equity pairs, in addition to the variability in pairwise correlations. In a moving window study we show that the asymmetric dependencies also vary over time, and that intraday predictive densities from the skew-t copula are more accurate than those from benchmark copula models. Portfolio selection strategies based on the estimated pairwise asymmetric dependencies improve performance relative to the index.
Real-world single image denoising is crucial and practical in computer vision. Bayesian inversions combined with score priors now have proven effective for single image denoising but are limited to white Gaussian noise. Moreover, applying existing score-based methods for real-world denoising requires not only the explicit train of score priors on the target domain but also the careful design of sampling procedures for posterior inference, which is complicated and impractical. To address these limitations, we propose a score priors-guided deep variational inference, namely ScoreDVI, for practical real-world denoising. By considering the deep variational image posterior with a Gaussian form, score priors are extracted based on easily accessible minimum MSE Non-$i.i.d$ Gaussian denoisers and variational samples, which in turn facilitate optimizing the variational image posterior. Such a procedure adaptively applies cheap score priors to denoising. Additionally, we exploit a Non-$i.i.d$ Gaussian mixture model and variational noise posterior to model the real-world noise. This scheme also enables the pixel-wise fusion of multiple image priors and variational image posteriors. Besides, we develop a noise-aware prior assignment strategy that dynamically adjusts the weight of image priors in the optimization. Our method outperforms other single image-based real-world denoising methods and achieves comparable performance to dataset-based unsupervised methods.
Motion planning can be cast as a trajectory optimisation problem where a cost is minimised as a function of the trajectory being generated. In complex environments with several obstacles and complicated geometry, this optimisation problem is usually difficult to solve and prone to local minima. However, recent advancements in computing hardware allow for parallel trajectory optimisation where multiple solutions are obtained simultaneously, each initialised from a different starting point. Unfortunately, without a strategy preventing two solutions to collapse on each other, naive parallel optimisation can suffer from mode collapse diminishing the efficiency of the approach and the likelihood of finding a global solution. In this paper we leverage on recent advances in the theory of rough paths to devise an algorithm for parallel trajectory optimisation that promotes diversity over the range of solutions, therefore avoiding mode collapses and achieving better global properties. Our approach builds on path signatures and Hilbert space representations of trajectories, and connects parallel variational inference for trajectory estimation with diversity promoting kernels. We empirically demonstrate that this strategy achieves lower average costs than competing alternatives on a range of problems, from 2D navigation to robotic manipulators operating in cluttered environments.