The Tweedie exponential dispersion family is a popular choice among many to model insurance losses that consist of zero-inflated semicontinuous data. In such data, it is often important to obtain credibility (inference) of the most important features that describe the endogenous variables. Post-selection inference is the standard procedure in statistics to obtain confidence intervals of model parameters after performing a feature extraction procedure. For a linear model, the lasso estimate often has non-negligible estimation bias for large coefficients corresponding to exogenous variables. To have valid inference on those coefficients, it is necessary to correct the bias of the lasso estimate. Traditional statistical methods, such as hypothesis testing or standard confidence interval construction might lead to incorrect conclusions during post-selection, as they are generally too optimistic. Here we discuss a few methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of the coefficients after feature selection in the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) family with application to insurance data.
A key property of reasoning systems is the ability to make sharp decisions on their input data. For contemporary AI systems, a key carrier of sharp behaviour is the softmax function, with its capability to perform differentiable query-key lookups. It is a common belief that the predictive power of networks leveraging softmax arises from "circuits" which sharply perform certain kinds of computations consistently across many diverse inputs. However, for these circuits to be robust, they would need to generalise well to arbitrary valid inputs. In this paper, we dispel this myth: even for tasks as simple as finding the maximum key, any learned circuitry must disperse as the number of items grows at test time. We attribute this to a fundamental limitation of the softmax function to robustly approximate sharp functions with increasing problem size, prove this phenomenon theoretically, and propose adaptive temperature as an ad-hoc technique for improving the sharpness of softmax at inference time.
Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce outputs that -- though plausible -- can lack consistency and reliability, particularly in ambiguous or complex scenarios. Challenges arise from ensuring that outputs align with both factual correctness and human intent. This is problematic in existing approaches that trade improved consistency for lower accuracy. To mitigate these challenges, we propose a novel game-theoretic approach to enhance consistency and reliability during the decoding stage of LLM output generation. Our method models the decoding process as a multistage Bayesian decoding game. This ensures consistency through Correctness Alignment and enhances reliability via Ambiguity Calibration. The model dynamically converges to a consensus on the most reliable outputs and distinguishes {Valid, Specious} outputs without human feedback or additional training. Our game design allows smaller models to outperform much larger models through game mechanisms (e.g., 78.1 LLaMA13B vs 76.6 PaLM540B), as well as integrating various LL strategies and models, demonstrating the potential of game-theoretic tools to improve the truthfulness and reliability of LLMs.
Generative models lack rigorous statistical guarantees for their outputs and are therefore unreliable in safety-critical applications. In this work, we propose Sequential Conformal Prediction for Generative Models (SCOPE-Gen), a sequential conformal prediction method producing prediction sets that satisfy a rigorous statistical guarantee called conformal admissibility control. This guarantee states that with high probability, the prediction sets contain at least one admissible (or valid) example. To this end, our method first samples an initial set of i.i.d. examples from a black box generative model. Then, this set is iteratively pruned via so-called greedy filters. As a consequence of the iterative generation procedure, admissibility of the final prediction set factorizes as a Markov chain. This factorization is crucial, because it allows to control each factor separately, using conformal prediction. In comparison to prior work, our method demonstrates a large reduction in the number of admissibility evaluations during calibration. This reduction is important in safety-critical applications, where these evaluations must be conducted manually by domain experts and are therefore costly and time consuming. We highlight the advantages of our method in terms of admissibility evaluations and cardinality of the prediction sets through experiments in natural language generation and molecular graph extension tasks.
Semantic parsers convert natural language to logical forms, which can be evaluated on knowledge bases (KBs) to produce denotations. Recent semantic parsers have been developed with sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) pre-trained language models (PLMs) or large language models, where the models treat logical forms as sequences of tokens. For syntactic and semantic validity, the semantic parsers use grammars that enable constrained decoding. However, the grammars lack the ability to utilize large information of KBs, although logical forms contain representations of KB elements, such as entities or relations. In this work, we propose a grammar augmented with candidate expressions for semantic parsing on a large KB with a seq2seq PLM. The grammar defines actions as production rules, and our semantic parser predicts actions during inference under the constraints by types and candidate expressions. We apply the grammar to knowledge base question answering, where the constraints by candidate expressions assist a semantic parser to generate valid KB elements. In experiments on two benchmarks, KQA Pro and Overnight, the constraints by candidate expressions increased the accuracy of our semantic parser, whether it was trained with strong supervision or weak supervision. Our semantic parser achieved state-of-the-art accuracies on KQA Pro and Overnight, and its implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/daehwannam/candexpr-sp.git.
Real-world data streams can change unpredictably due to distribution shifts, feedback loops and adversarial actors, which challenges the validity of forecasts. We present a forecasting framework ensuring valid uncertainty estimates regardless of how data evolves. Leveraging the concept of Blackwell approachability from game theory, we introduce a forecasting framework that guarantees calibrated uncertainties for outcomes in any compact space (e.g., classification or bounded regression). We extend this framework to recalibrate existing forecasters, guaranteeing accurate uncertainties without sacrificing predictive performance. We implement both general-purpose gradient-based algorithms and algorithms optimized for popular special cases of our framework. Empirically, our algorithms improve calibration and downstream decision-making for energy systems.
Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty in a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to achieve in high-capacity prediction models such as deep neural networks. Moreover, in high-dimensional settings, there may be many valid uncertainty estimates, each with their own performance profile - i.e., not all uncertainty is equally valuable for downstream decision-making. To address this problem, this paper develops an end-to-end framework to learn the uncertainty estimates for conditional robust optimization, with robustness and calibration guarantees provided by conformal prediction. In addition, we propose to represent arbitrary convex uncertainty sets with partially input-convex neural networks, which are learned as part of our framework. Our approach consistently improves upon two-stage estimate-then-optimize baselines on concrete applications in energy storage arbitrage and portfolio optimization.
The task of automated code review has recently gained a lot of attention from the machine learning community. However, current review comment evaluation metrics rely on comparisons with a human-written reference for a given code change (also called a diff). Furthermore, code review is a one-to-many problem, like generation and summarization, with many "valid reviews" for a diff. Thus, we develop CRScore - a reference-free metric to measure dimensions of review quality like conciseness, comprehensiveness, and relevance. We design CRScore to evaluate reviews in a way that is grounded in claims and potential issues detected in the code by LLMs and static analyzers. We demonstrate that CRScore can produce valid, fine-grained scores of review quality that have the greatest alignment with human judgment among open source metrics (0.54 Spearman correlation) and are more sensitive than reference-based metrics. We also release a corpus of 2.9k human-annotated review quality scores for machine-generated and GitHub review comments to support the development of automated metrics.
This paper addresses the optimization of edge-weighted networks by maximizing algebraic connectivity to enhance network robustness. Motivated by the need for precise robot position estimation in cooperative localization and pose-graph sparsification in Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), the algebraic connectivity maximization problem is formulated as a Mixed Integer Semi-Definite Program (MISDP), which is NP-hard. Leveraging spectral graph theoretic methods, specifically Cheeger's inequality, this work introduces novel "Cheeger cuts" to strengthen and efficiently solve medium-scale MISDPs. Further, a new Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) is developed for efficiently computing Cheeger cuts, implemented within an outer-approximation algorithm for solving the MISDP. A greedy k-opt heuristic is also presented, producing high-quality solutions that serve as valid lower bounds for Cheeger cuts. Comprehensive numerical analyses demonstrate the efficacy of strengthened cuts via substantial improvements in run times on synthetic and realistic robot localization datasets.
Gender-fair language, an evolving German linguistic variation, fosters inclusion by addressing all genders or using neutral forms. Nevertheless, there is a significant lack of resources to assess the impact of this linguistic shift on classification using language models (LMs), which are probably not trained on such variations. To address this gap, we present Lou, the first dataset featuring high-quality reformulations for German text classification covering seven tasks, like stance detection and toxicity classification. Evaluating 16 mono- and multi-lingual LMs on Lou shows that gender-fair language substantially impacts predictions by flipping labels, reducing certainty, and altering attention patterns. However, existing evaluations remain valid, as LM rankings of original and reformulated instances do not significantly differ. While we offer initial insights on the effect on German text classification, the findings likely apply to other languages, as consistent patterns were observed in multi-lingual and English LMs.
The sample compression theory provides generalization guarantees for predictors that can be fully defined using a subset of the training dataset and a (short) message string, generally defined as a binary sequence. Previous works provided generalization bounds for the zero-one loss, which is restrictive notably when applied to deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present a general framework for deriving new sample compression bounds that hold for real-valued unbounded losses. Using the Pick-To-Learn (P2L) meta-algorithm, which transforms the training method of any machine-learning predictor to yield sample-compressed predictors, we empirically demonstrate the tightness of the bounds and their versatility by evaluating them on random forests and multiple types of neural networks.
This study investigates the effectiveness of Genetic Algorithms (GAs) in solving both linear and nonlinear systems of equations, comparing their performance to traditional methods such as Gaussian Elimination, Newton's Method, and Levenberg-Marquardt. The GA consistently delivered accurate solutions across various test cases, demonstrating its robustness and flexibility. A key advantage of the GA is its ability to explore the solution space broadly, uncovering multiple sets of solutions -- a feat that traditional methods, which typically converge to a single solution, cannot achieve. This feature proved especially beneficial in complex nonlinear systems, where multiple valid solutions exist, highlighting the GA's superiority in navigating intricate solution landscapes.
This paper summarizes the 3rd NTIRE challenge on stereo image super-resolution (SR) with a focus on new solutions and results. The task of this challenge is to super-resolve a low-resolution stereo image pair to a high-resolution one with a magnification factor of x4 under a limited computational budget. Compared with single image SR, the major challenge of this challenge lies in how to exploit additional information in another viewpoint and how to maintain stereo consistency in the results. This challenge has 2 tracks, including one track on bicubic degradation and one track on real degradations. In total, 108 and 70 participants were successfully registered for each track, respectively. In the test phase, 14 and 13 teams successfully submitted valid results with PSNR (RGB) scores better than the baseline. This challenge establishes a new benchmark for stereo image SR.
Complicated first principles modelling and controller synthesis can be prohibitively slow and expensive for high-mix, low-volume products such as hydraulic excavators. Instead, in a data-driven approach, recorded trajectories from the real system can be used to train local model networks (LMNs), for which feedforward controllers are derived via feedback linearization. However, previous works required LMNs without zero dynamics for feedback linearization, which restricts the model structure and thus modelling capacity of LMNs. In this paper, we overcome this restriction by providing a criterion for when feedback linearization of LMNs with zero dynamics yields a valid controller. As a criterion we propose the bounded-input bounded-output stability of the resulting controller. In two additional contributions, we extend this approach to consider measured disturbance signals and multiple inputs and outputs. We illustrate the effectiveness of our contributions in a hydraulic excavator control application with hardware experiments. To this end, we train LMNs from recorded, noisy data and derive feedforward controllers used as part of a leveling assistance system on the excavator. In our experiments, incorporating disturbance signals and multiple inputs and outputs enhances tracking performance of the learned controller. A video of our experiments is available at https://youtu.be/lrrWBx2ASaE.
Conformal prediction (CP) is a robust framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, but it requires exchangeable data to ensure valid prediction sets at a user-specified significance level. When this assumption is violated, as in time-series or other structured data, the validity guarantees of CP no longer hold. Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) was introduced to address this limitation by adjusting the significance level dynamically, ensuring finite-sample coverage guarantees even for non-exchangeable data. In this paper, we show that ACI does not require the use of conformal predictors; instead, it can be implemented with the more general confidence predictors, which are computationally simpler and still maintain the crucial property of nested prediction sets. Through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate that confidence predictors can perform comparably to, or even better than, conformal predictors, particularly in terms of computational efficiency. These findings suggest that confidence predictors represent a viable and efficient alternative to conformal predictors in non-exchangeable data settings, although further studies are needed to identify when one method is superior.
The price elasticity of demand can be estimated from observational data using instrumental variables (IV). However, naive IV estimators may be inconsistent in settings with autocorrelated time series. We argue that causal time graphs can simplify IV identification and help select consistent estimators. To do so, we propose to first model the equilibrium condition by an unobserved confounder, deriving a directed acyclic graph (DAG) while maintaining the assumption of a simultaneous determination of prices and quantities. We then exploit recent advances in graphical inference to derive valid IV estimators, including estimators that achieve consistency by simultaneously estimating nuisance effects. We further argue that observing significant differences between the estimates of presumably valid estimators can help to reject false model assumptions, thereby improving our understanding of underlying economic dynamics. We apply this approach to the German electricity market, estimating the price elasticity of demand on simulated and real-world data. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural autocorrelation in IV-based analysis.
The instrumental variables (IVs) method is a leading empirical strategy for causal inference. Finding IVs is a heuristic and creative process, and justifying its validity -- especially exclusion restrictions -- is largely rhetorical. We propose using large language models (LLMs) to search for new IVs through narratives and counterfactual reasoning, similar to how a human researcher would. The stark difference, however, is that LLMs can dramatically accelerate this process and explore an extremely large search space. We demonstrate how to construct prompts to search for potentially valid IVs. We contend that multi-step and role-playing prompting strategies are effective for simulating the endogenous decision-making processes of economic agents and for navigating language models through the realm of real-world scenarios, rather than anchoring them within the narrow realm of academic discourses on IVs. We apply our method to three well-known examples in economics: returns to schooling, supply and demand, and peer effects. We then extend our strategy to finding (i) control variables in regression and difference-in-differences and (ii) running variables in regression discontinuity designs.
Vehicle object detection benefits from both LiDAR and camera data, with LiDAR offering superior performance in many scenarios. Fusion of these modalities further enhances accuracy, but existing methods often introduce complexity or dataset-specific dependencies. In our study, we propose a model-adaptive late-fusion method, VaLID, which validates whether each predicted bounding box is acceptable or not. Our method verifies the higher-performing, yet overly optimistic LiDAR model detections using camera detections that are obtained from either specially trained, general, or open-vocabulary models. VaLID uses a simple multi-layer perceptron trained with a high recall bias to reduce the false predictions made by the LiDAR detector, while still preserving the true ones. Evaluating with multiple combinations of LiDAR and camera detectors on the KITTI dataset, we reduce false positives by an average of 63.9%, thus outperforming the individual detectors on 3D average precision (3DAP). Our approach is model-adaptive and demonstrates state-of-the-art competitive performance even when using generic camera detectors that were not trained specifically for this dataset.
We introduce adaptive learn-then-test (aLTT), an efficient hyperparameter selection procedure that provides finite-sample statistical guarantees on the population risk of AI models. Unlike the existing learn-then-test (LTT) technique, which relies on conventional p-value-based multiple hypothesis testing (MHT), aLTT implements sequential data-dependent MHT with early termination by leveraging e-processes. As a result, aLTT can reduce the number of testing rounds, making it particularly well-suited for scenarios in which testing is costly or presents safety risks. Apart from maintaining statistical validity, in applications such as online policy selection for offline reinforcement learning and prompt engineering, aLTT is shown to achieve the same performance as LTT while requiring only a fraction of the testing rounds.
The increasing use of text as data in social science research necessitates the development of valid, consistent, reproducible, and efficient methods for generating text-based concept measures. This paper presents a novel method that leverages the internal hidden states of large language models (LLMs) to generate these concept measures. Specifically, the proposed method learns a concept vector that captures how the LLM internally represents the target concept, then estimates the concept value for text data by projecting the text's LLM hidden states onto the concept vector. Three replication studies demonstrate the method's effectiveness in producing highly valid, consistent, and reproducible text-based measures across various social science research contexts, highlighting its potential as a valuable tool for the research community.