The ability to estimate joint parameters is essential for various applications in robotics and computer vision. In this paper, we propose CAPT: category-level articulation estimation from a point cloud using Transformer. CAPT uses an end-to-end transformer-based architecture for joint parameter and state estimation of articulated objects from a single point cloud. The proposed CAPT methods accurately estimate joint parameters and states for various articulated objects with high precision and robustness. The paper also introduces a motion loss approach, which improves articulation estimation performance by emphasizing the dynamic features of articulated objects. Additionally, the paper presents a double voting strategy to provide the framework with coarse-to-fine parameter estimation. Experimental results on several category datasets demonstrate that our methods outperform existing alternatives for articulation estimation. Our research provides a promising solution for applying Transformer-based architectures in articulated object analysis.
Particle filters are a frequent choice for inference tasks in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models. They can either be used for state inference by approximating the filtering distribution or for parameter inference by approximating the marginal data (observation) likelihood. A good proposal distribution and a good resampling scheme are crucial to obtain low variance estimates. However, traditional methods like multinomial resampling introduce nondifferentiability in PF-based loss functions for parameter estimation, prohibiting gradient-based learning tasks. This work proposes a differentiable resampling scheme by deterministic sampling from an empirical cumulative distribution function. We evaluate our method on parameter inference tasks and proposal learning.
We consider the estimation of three-dimensional (3D) radar parameters, namely, bearing or angle-of-arrival (AoA), delay or range, and Doppler shift velocity, under a mono-static multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) joint communications and radar (JCR) system based on Orthogonal Time Frequency Space (OTFS) signals. In particular, we propose a novel two-step algorithm to estimate the three radar parameters sequentially, where the AoA is obtained first, followed by the estimation of range and velocity via a reduced two-dimensional (2D) grid maximum likelihood (ML) search in the delay-Doppler (DD) domain. Besides the resulting lower complexity, the decoupling of AoA and DD estimation enables the incorporation of an linear minimum mean square error (LMMSE) procedure in the ML estimation of range and velocity, which are found to significantly outperform State-of-the-Art (SotA) alternatives and approach the fundamental limits of the Cram`er-Rao lower bound (CRLB) and search grid resolution.
The Covid-19 pandemic drastically changed urban mobility, both during the height of the pandemic with government lockdowns, but also in the longer term with the adoption of working-from-home policies. To understand its effects on rail public transport ridership, we propose a dedicated Regression Mixture Model able to perform both the clustering of public transport stations and the segmentation of time periods, while ignoring variations due to additional variables such as the official lockdowns or non-working days. Each cluster is thus defined by a series of segments in which the effect of the exogenous variables is constant. As each segment within a cluster has its own regression coefficients to model the impact of the covariates, we analyze how these coefficients evolve to understand the changes in the cluster. We present the regression mixture model and the parameter estimation using the EM algorithm, before demonstrating the benefits of the model on both simulated and real data. Thanks to a five-year dataset of the ridership in the Paris public transport system, we analyze the impact of the pandemic, not only in terms of the number of travelers but also on the weekly commute. We further analyze the specific changes that the pandemic caused inside each cluster.
This study investigates the problem of angle-based localization of multiple targets using a multistatic OFDM radar. Although the maximum likelihood (ML) approach can be employed to merge data from different radar pairs, this method requires a high complexity multi-dimensional search process. The multiple signal classification (MUSIC) algorithm simplifies the complexity to a two-dimensional search, but no framework is derived for combining MUSIC pseudo-spectrums in a multistatic configuration. This paper exploits the relationship between MUSIC and ML estimators to approximate the multidimensional ML parameter estimation with a weighted combination of MUSIC pseudo-spectrum. This enables the computation of a likelihood map on which a peak selection is applied for target detection. In addition to reducing the computational complexity, the proposed method relies only on transmitting the estimated channel covariance matrices of each radar pair to the central processor. A numerical analysis is conducted to assess the benefits of the proposed fusion.
Power prediction is crucial to the efficiency and reliability of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. For the model-chain-based (also named indirect or physical) power prediction, the conversion of ground environmental data (plane-of-array irradiance and module temperature) to the output power is a fundamental step, commonly accomplished through physical modeling. The core of the physical model lies in the parameters. However, traditional parameter estimation either relies on datasheet information that cannot reflect the system's current health status or necessitates additional I-V characterization of the entire array, which is not commonly available. To address this, our paper introduces PVPro, a dynamic physical modeling method for irradiance-to-power conversion. It extracts model parameters from the recent production data without requiring I-V curve measurements. This dynamic model, periodically-updated (as short as daily), can closely capture the actual health status, enabling precise power estimation. To evaluate the performance, PVPro is compared with the smart persistence, nominal physical, and various machine learning models for day-ahead power prediction. The results indicate that PVPro achieves an outstanding power estimation performance with the average nMAE =1.4% across four field PV systems, reducing the error by 17.6% compared to the best of other techniques. Furthermore, PVPro demonstrates robustness across different seasons and weather conditions. More importantly, PVPro can also perform well with a limited amount of historical production data (3 days), rendering it applicable for new PV systems. The tool is available as a Python package at: https://github.com/DuraMAT/pvpro.
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to describe dynamical systems in science, but identifying parameters that explain experimental measurements is challenging. In particular, although ODEs are differentiable and would allow for gradient-based parameter optimization, the nonlinear dynamics of ODEs often lead to many local minima and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. We therefore propose diffusion tempering, a novel regularization technique for probabilistic numerical methods which improves convergence of gradient-based parameter optimization in ODEs. By iteratively reducing a noise parameter of the probabilistic integrator, the proposed method converges more reliably to the true parameters. We demonstrate that our method is effective for dynamical systems of different complexity and show that it obtains reliable parameter estimates for a Hodgkin-Huxley model with a practically relevant number of parameters.
Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) potentially brings significant improvements in automotive safety due to its ability to autonomously prevent collisions in situations where the driver may not be able to do so. Driven by the poor performance of the state of the art in recent testing, this work provides an online solution to identify critical parameters such as the current and maximum friction coefficients. The method introduced here, namely Torque Vectoring for Active Learning (TVAL), can perform state and parameter estimation whilst following the driver's input. Importantly with less power requirements than normal driving. Our method is designed with a crucial focus on ensuring minimal disruption to the driver, allowing them to maintain full control of the vehicle. Additionally, we exploit a rain/light sensor to drive the observer resampling to maintain estimation certainty across prolonged operation. Then a scheme to modulate TVAL is introduced that considers powertrain efficiency, safety, and availability in an online fashion. Using a high-fidelity vehicle model and drive cycle we demonstrate the functionality of TVAL controller across changing road surfaces where we successfully identify the road surface whenever possible.
Contextual bandits constitute a classical framework for decision-making under uncertainty. In this setting, the goal is to learn the arms of highest reward subject to contextual information, while the unknown reward parameters of each arm need to be learned by experimenting that specific arm. Accordingly, a fundamental problem is that of balancing exploration (i.e., pulling different arms to learn their parameters), versus exploitation (i.e., pulling the best arms to gain reward). To study this problem, the existing literature mostly considers perfectly observed contexts. However, the setting of partial context observations remains unexplored to date, despite being theoretically more general and practically more versatile. We study bandit policies for learning to select optimal arms based on the data of observations, which are noisy linear functions of the unobserved context vectors. Our theoretical analysis shows that the Thompson sampling policy successfully balances exploration and exploitation. Specifically, we establish the followings: (i) regret bounds that grow poly-logarithmically with time, (ii) square-root consistency of parameter estimation, and (iii) scaling of the regret with other quantities including dimensions and number of arms. Extensive numerical experiments with both real and synthetic data are presented as well, corroborating the efficacy of Thompson sampling. To establish the results, we introduce novel martingale techniques and concentration inequalities to address partially observed dependent random variables generated from unspecified distributions, and also leverage problem-dependent information to sharpen probabilistic bounds for time-varying suboptimality gaps. These techniques pave the road towards studying other decision-making problems with contextual information as well as partial observations.
Non-Gaussian impulsive noise (IN) with memory exists in many practical applications. When it is mixed with white Gaussian noise (WGN), the resultant mixed noise will be bursty. The performance of communication systems will degrade significantly under bursty mixed noise if the bursty characteristic is ignored. A proper model for the bursty mixed noise and corresponding algorithms needs to be designed to obtain desirable performance but there is no such model reported to the best of our knowledge. The important problem is addressed in the two-part paper. In the first part, we propose a closed-form heavy-tailed multivariate probability density function (PDF) that to model the bursty mixed noise. This model is the weighted addition of gaussian distribution and student distribution. Then, we present the parameter estimation method based on the empirical characteristic function of the proposed model and analyze the performance of the parameter estimation. Numerical results show that our proposed bursty mixed noise model matches the measured bursty noise well. Meanwhile, the parameters of the proposed noise model can be accurately estimated in terms of mean square error (MSE).
We consider the parameter estimation problem in the deviated Gaussian mixture of experts in which the data are generated from $(1 - \lambda^{\ast}) g_0(Y| X)+ \lambda^{\ast} \sum_{i = 1}^{k_{\ast}} p_{i}^{\ast} f(Y|(a_{i}^{\ast})^{\top}X+b_i^{\ast},\sigma_{i}^{\ast})$, where $X, Y$ are respectively a covariate vector and a response variable, $g_{0}(Y|X)$ is a known function, $\lambda^{\ast} \in [0, 1]$ is true but unknown mixing proportion, and $(p_{i}^{\ast}, a_{i}^{\ast}, b_{i}^{\ast}, \sigma_{i}^{\ast})$ for $1 \leq i \leq k^{\ast}$ are unknown parameters of the Gaussian mixture of experts. This problem arises from the goodness-of-fit test when we would like to test whether the data are generated from $g_{0}(Y|X)$ (null hypothesis) or they are generated from the whole mixture (alternative hypothesis). Based on the algebraic structure of the expert functions and the distinguishability between $g_0$ and the mixture part, we construct novel Voronoi-based loss functions to capture the convergence rates of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for our models. We further demonstrate that our proposed loss functions characterize the local convergence rates of parameter estimation more accurately than the generalized Wasserstein, a loss function being commonly used for estimating parameters in the Gaussian mixture of experts.
Differential equation models are crucial to scientific processes. The values of model parameters are important for analyzing the behaviour of solutions. A parameter is called globally identifiable if its value can be uniquely determined from the input and output functions. To determine if a parameter estimation problem is well-posed for a given model, one must check if the model parameters are globally identifiable. This problem has been intensively studied for ordinary differential equation models, with theory and several efficient algorithms and software packages developed. A comprehensive theory of algebraic identifiability for PDEs has hitherto not been developed due to the complexity of initial and boundary conditions. Here, we provide theory and algorithms, based on differential algebra, for testing identifiability of polynomial PDE models. We showcase this approach on PDE models arising in the sciences.
Intelligent reflecting surface (IRS) has garnered growing interest and attention due to its potential for facilitating and supporting wireless communications and sensing. This paper studies a semi-passive IRS-enabled sensing system, where an IRS consists of both passive reflecting elements and active sensors. Our goal is to minimize the Cram\'{e}r-Rao bound (CRB) for parameter estimation under both point and extended target cases. Towards this goal, we begin by deriving the CRB for the direction-of-arrival (DoA) estimation in closed-form and then theoretically analyze the IRS reflecting elements and sensors allocation design based on the CRB under the point target case with a single-antenna base station (BS). To efficiently solve the corresponding optimization problem for the case with a multi-antenna BS, we propose an efficient algorithm by jointly optimizing the IRS phase shifts and the BS beamformers. Under the extended target case, the CRB for the target response matrix (TRM) estimation is minimized via the optimization of the BS transmit beamformers. Moreover, we explore the influence of various system parameters on the CRB and compare these effects to those observed under the point target case. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the semi-passive IRS and our proposed beamforming design for improving the performance of the sensing system.
In this paper, we propose the Continuous Time Fractional Topic Model (cFTM), a new method for dynamic topic modeling. This approach incorporates fractional Brownian motion~(fBm) to effectively identify positive or negative correlations in topic and word distribution over time, revealing long-term dependency or roughness. Our theoretical analysis shows that the cFTM can capture these long-term dependency or roughness in both topic and word distributions, mirroring the main characteristics of fBm. Moreover, we prove that the parameter estimation process for the cFTM is on par with that of LDA, traditional topic models. To demonstrate the cFTM's property, we conduct empirical study using economic news articles. The results from these tests support the model's ability to identify and track long-term dependency or roughness in topics over time.
The spatio-temporal interpolation of large geophysical datasets has historically been addressed by Optimal Interpolation (OI) and more sophisticated equation-based or data-driven Data Assimilation (DA) techniques. Recent advances in the deep learning community enables to address the interpolation problem through a neural architecture incorporating a variational data assimilation framework. The reconstruction task is seen as a joint learning problem of the prior involved in the variational inner cost, seen as a projection operator of the state, and the gradient-based minimization of the latter. Both prior models and solvers are stated as neural networks with automatic differentiation which can be trained by minimizing a loss function, typically the mean squared error between some ground truth and the reconstruction. Such a strategy turns out to be very efficient to improve the mean state estimation, but still needs complementary developments to quantify its related uncertainty. In this work, we use the theory of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) and Gaussian Processes (GP) to estimate both space-and time-varying covariance of the state. Our neural variational scheme is modified to embed an augmented state formulation with both state and SPDE parametrization to estimate. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework on a spatio-temporal GP driven by diffusion-based anisotropies and on realistic Sea Surface Height (SSH) datasets. We show how our solution reaches the OI baseline in the Gaussian case. For nonlinear dynamics, as almost always stated in DA, our solution outperforms OI, while allowing for fast and interpretable online parameter estimation.
Matrix completion estimators are employed in causal panel data models to regulate the rank of the underlying factor model using nuclear norm minimization. This convex optimization problem enables concurrent regularization of a potentially high-dimensional set of covariates to shrink the model size. For valid finite sample inference, we adopt a permutation-based approach and prove its validity for any treatment assignment mechanism. Simulations illustrate the consistency of the proposed estimator in parameter estimation and variable selection. An application to public health policies in Germany demonstrates the data-driven model selection feature on empirical data and finds no effect of travel restrictions on the containment of severe Covid-19 infections.
$f \propto r^{-\alpha} \cdot (r+\gamma)^{-\beta}$ has been empirically shown more precise than a na\"ive power law $f\propto r^{-\alpha}$ to model the rank-frequency ($r$-$f$) relation of words in natural languages. This work shows that the only crucial parameter in the formulation is $\gamma$, which depicts the resistance to vocabulary growth on a corpus. A method of parameter estimation by searching an optimal $\gamma$ is proposed, where a ``zeroth word'' is introduced technically for the calculation. The formulation and parameters are further discussed with several case studies.
Cancer is a complex disease driven by genomic alterations, and tumor sequencing is becoming a mainstay of clinical care for cancer patients. The emergence of multi-institution sequencing data presents a powerful resource for learning real-world evidence to enhance precision oncology. GENIE BPC, led by the American Association for Cancer Research, establishes a unique database linking genomic data with clinical information for patients treated at multiple cancer centers. However, leveraging such multi-institutional sequencing data presents significant challenges. Variations in gene panels result in loss of information when the analysis is conducted on common gene sets. Additionally, differences in sequencing techniques and patient heterogeneity across institutions add complexity. High data dimensionality, sparse gene mutation patterns, and weak signals at the individual gene level further complicate matters. Motivated by these real-world challenges, we introduce the Bridge model. It uses a quantile-matched latent variable approach to derive integrated features to preserve information beyond common genes and maximize the utilization of all available data while leveraging information sharing to enhance both learning efficiency and the model's capacity to generalize. By extracting harmonized and noise-reduced lower-dimensional latent variables, the true mutation pattern unique to each individual is captured. We assess the model's performance and parameter estimation through extensive simulation studies. The extracted latent features from the Bridge model consistently excel in predicting patient survival across six cancer types in GENIE BPC data.
With the development and popularity of sensors installed in manufacturing systems, complex data are collected during manufacturing processes, which brings challenges for traditional process control methods. This paper proposes a novel process control and monitoring method for the complex structure of high-dimensional image-based overlay errors (modeled in tensor form), which are collected in semiconductor manufacturing processes. The proposed method aims to reduce overlay errors using limited control recipes. We first build a high-dimensional process model and propose different tensor-on-vector regression algorithms to estimate parameters in the model to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. Then, based on the estimate of tensor parameters, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) controller for tensor data is designed whose stability is theoretically guaranteed. Considering the fact that low-dimensional control recipes cannot compensate for all high-dimensional disturbances on the image, control residuals are monitored to prevent significant drifts of uncontrollable high-dimensional disturbances. Through extensive simulations and real case studies, the performances of parameter estimation algorithms and the EWMA controller in tensor space are evaluated. Compared with existing image-based feedback controllers, the superiority of our method is verified especially when disturbances are not stable.
Dynamic models describe phenomena across scientific disciplines, yet to make these models useful in application the unknown parameter values of the models must be determined. Discrete-time dynamic models are widely used to model biological processes, but it is often difficult to determine these parameters. In this paper, we propose a symbolic-numeric approach for parameter estimation in discrete-time models that involve univariate non-algebraic (locally) analytic functions such as exp. We illustrate the performance (precision) of our approach by applying our approach to two archetypal discrete-time models in biology (the flour beetle 'LPA' model and discrete Lotka-Volterra competition model). Unlike optimization-based methods, our algorithm guarantees to find all solutions of the parameter values up to a specified precision given time-series data for the measured variables provided that there are finitely many parameter values that fit the data and that the used polynomial system solver can find all roots of the associated polynomial system with interval coefficients.