The uncertainty-penalized information criterion (UBIC) has been proposed as a new model-selection criterion for data-driven partial differential equation (PDE) discovery. In this paper, we show that using the UBIC is equivalent to employing the conventional BIC to a set of overparameterized models derived from the potential regression models of different complexity measures. The result indicates that the asymptotic property of the UBIC and BIC holds indifferently.
This work introduces a novel R package for concise, informative summaries of machine learning models. We take inspiration from the summary function for (generalized) linear models in R, but extend it in several directions: First, our summary function is model-agnostic and provides a unified summary output also for non-parametric machine learning models; Second, the summary output is more extensive and customizable -- it comprises information on the dataset, model performance, model complexity, model's estimated feature importances, feature effects, and fairness metrics; Third, models are evaluated based on resampling strategies for unbiased estimates of model performances, feature importances, etc. Overall, the clear, structured output should help to enhance and expedite the model selection process, making it a helpful tool for practitioners and researchers alike.
This work introduces a new method for selecting the number of components in finite mixture models (FMMs) using variational Bayes, inspired by the large-sample properties of the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) derived from mean-field (MF) variational approximation. Specifically, we establish matching upper and lower bounds for the ELBO without assuming conjugate priors, suggesting the consistency of model selection for FMMs based on maximizing the ELBO. As a by-product of our proof, we demonstrate that the MF approximation inherits the stable behavior (benefited from model singularity) of the posterior distribution, which tends to eliminate the extra components under model misspecification where the number of mixture components is over-specified. This stable behavior also leads to the $n^{-1/2}$ convergence rate for parameter estimation, up to a logarithmic factor, under this model overspecification. Empirical experiments are conducted to validate our theoretical findings and compare with other state-of-the-art methods for selecting the number of components in FMMs.
In this paper, we show how mixed-integer conic optimization can be used to combine feature subset selection with holistic generalized linear models to fully automate the model selection process. Concretely, we directly optimize for the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria while imposing constraints designed to deal with multicollinearity in the feature selection task. Specifically, we propose a novel pairwise correlation constraint that combines the sign coherence constraint with ideas from classical statistical models like Ridge regression and the OSCAR model.
This research paper delves into the innovative integration of Shannon entropy and rough set theory, presenting a novel approach to generalize the evaluation approach in machine learning. The conventional application of entropy, primarily focused on information uncertainty, is extended through its combination with rough set theory to offer a deeper insight into data's intrinsic structure and the interpretability of machine learning models. We introduce a comprehensive framework that synergizes the granularity of rough set theory with the uncertainty quantification of Shannon entropy, applied across a spectrum of machine learning algorithms. Our methodology is rigorously tested on various datasets, showcasing its capability to not only assess predictive performance but also to illuminate the underlying data complexity and model robustness. The results underscore the utility of this integrated approach in enhancing the evaluation landscape of machine learning, offering a multi-faceted perspective that balances accuracy with a profound understanding of data attributes and model dynamics. This paper contributes a groundbreaking perspective to machine learning evaluation, proposing a method that encapsulates a holistic view of model performance, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making in model selection and application.
The field of natural language processing (NLP) has made significant progress with the rapid development of deep learning technologies. One of the research directions in text sentiment analysis is sentiment analysis of medical texts, which holds great potential for application in clinical diagnosis. However, the medical field currently lacks sufficient text datasets, and the effectiveness of sentiment analysis is greatly impacted by different model design approaches, which presents challenges. Therefore, this paper focuses on the medical domain, using bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) as the basic pre-trained model and experimenting with modules such as convolutional neural network (CNN), fully connected network (FCN), and graph convolutional networks (GCN) at the output layer. Experiments and analyses were conducted on the METS-CoV dataset to explore the training performance after integrating different deep learning networks. The results indicate that CNN models outperform other networks when trained on smaller medical text datasets in combination with pre-trained models like BERT. This study highlights the significance of model selection in achieving effective sentiment analysis in the medical domain and provides a reference for future research to develop more efficient model architectures.
Weakly Supervised Object Localization (WSOL) allows training deep learning models for classification and localization (LOC) using only global class-level labels. The absence of bounding box (bbox) supervision during training raises challenges in the literature for hyper-parameter tuning, model selection, and evaluation. WSOL methods rely on a validation set with bbox annotations for model selection, and a test set with bbox annotations for threshold estimation for producing bboxes from localization maps. This approach, however, is not aligned with the WSOL setting as these annotations are typically unavailable in real-world scenarios. Our initial empirical analysis shows a significant decline in LOC performance when model selection and threshold estimation rely solely on class labels and the image itself, respectively, compared to using manual bbox annotations. This highlights the importance of incorporating bbox labels for optimal model performance. In this paper, a new WSOL evaluation protocol is proposed that provides LOC information without the need for manual bbox annotations. In particular, we generated noisy pseudo-boxes from a pretrained off-the-shelf region proposal method such as Selective Search, CLIP, and RPN for model selection. These bboxes are also employed to estimate the threshold from LOC maps, circumventing the need for test-set bbox annotations. Our experiments with several WSOL methods on ILSVRC and CUB datasets show that using the proposed pseudo-bboxes for validation facilitates the model selection and threshold estimation, with LOC performance comparable to those selected using GT bboxes on the validation set and threshold estimation on the test set. It also outperforms models selected using class-level labels, and then dynamically thresholded based solely on LOC maps.
We consider online model selection with decentralized data over $M$ clients, and study the necessity of collaboration among clients. Previous work proposed various federated algorithms without demonstrating their necessity,while we answer the question from a novel perspective of computational constraints. We prove lower bounds on the regret, and propose a federated algorithm and analyze the upper bound.Our results show (i) collaboration is unnecessary in the absence of computational constraints on clients; (ii) collaboration is necessary if the computational cost on each client is limited to $o(K)$, where $K$ is the number of candidate hypothesis spaces. We clarify the unnecessary nature of collaboration in previous federated algorithms for distributed online multi-kernel learning,and improve the regret bounds at a smaller computational and communication cost. Our algorithm relies on three new techniques including an improved Bernstein's inequality for martingale, a federated online mirror descent framework, and decoupling model selection and prediction, which might be of independent interest.
In this study, we identify the need for an interpretable, quantitative score of the repeatability, or consistency, of image generation in diffusion models. We propose a semantic approach, using a pairwise mean CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining) score as our semantic consistency score. We applied this metric to compare two state-of-the-art open-source image generation diffusion models, Stable Diffusion XL and PixArt-{\alpha}, and we found statistically significant differences between the semantic consistency scores for the models. Agreement between the Semantic Consistency Score selected model and aggregated human annotations was 94%. We also explored the consistency of SDXL and a LoRA-fine-tuned version of SDXL and found that the fine-tuned model had significantly higher semantic consistency in generated images. The Semantic Consistency Score proposed here offers a measure of image generation alignment, facilitating the evaluation of model architectures for specific tasks and aiding in informed decision-making regarding model selection.
Domain shift differences between training data for deep learning models and the deployment context can result in severe performance issues for models which fail to generalize. We study the domain shift problem under the context of remote photoplethysmography (rPPG), a technique for video-based heart rate inference. We propose metrics based on model similarity which may be used as a measure of domain shift, and we demonstrate high correlation between these metrics and empirical performance. One of the proposed metrics with viable correlations, DS-diff, does not assume access to the ground truth of the target domain, i.e. it may be applied to in-the-wild data. To that end, we investigate a model selection problem in which ground truth results for the evaluation domain is not known, demonstrating a 13.9% performance improvement over the average case baseline.
Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are versatile probabilistic tools used to model various real-life phenomena: earthquakes, operations on stock markets, neuronal activity, virus propagation and many others. In this paper, we focus on MHPs with exponential decay kernels and estimate connectivity graphs, which represent the Granger causal relations between their components. We approach this inference problem by proposing an optimization criterion and model selection algorithm based on the minimum message length (MML) principle. MML compares Granger causal models using the Occam's razor principle in the following way: even when models have a comparable goodness-of-fit to the observed data, the one generating the most concise explanation of the data is preferred. While most of the state-of-art methods using lasso-type penalization tend to overfitting in scenarios with short time horizons, the proposed MML-based method achieves high F1 scores in these settings. We conduct a numerical study comparing the proposed algorithm to other related classical and state-of-art methods, where we achieve the highest F1 scores in specific sparse graph settings. We illustrate the proposed method also on G7 sovereign bond data and obtain causal connections, which are in agreement with the expert knowledge available in the literature.
One key task in environmental science is to map environmental variables continuously in space or even in space and time. Machine learning algorithms are frequently used to learn from local field observations to make spatial predictions by estimating the value of the variable of interest in places where it has not been measured. However, the application of machine learning strategies for spatial mapping involves additional challenges compared to "non-spatial" prediction tasks that often originate from spatial autocorrelation and from training data that are not independent and identically distributed. In the past few years, we developed a number of methods to support the application of machine learning for spatial data which involves the development of suitable cross-validation strategies for performance assessment and model selection, spatial feature selection, and methods to assess the area of applicability of the trained models. The intention of the CAST package is to support the application of machine learning strategies for predictive mapping by implementing such methods and making them available for easy integration into modelling workflows. Here we introduce the CAST package and its core functionalities. At the case study of mapping plant species richness, we will go through the different steps of the modelling workflow and show how CAST can be used to support more reliable spatial predictions.
With the success of 2D diffusion models, 2D AIGC content has already transformed our lives. Recently, this success has been extended to 3D AIGC, with state-of-the-art methods generating textured 3D models from single images or text. However, we argue that current 3D AIGC methods still do not fully unleash human creativity. We often imagine 3D content made from multimodal inputs, such as what it would look like if my pet bunny were eating a doughnut on the table. In this paper, we explore a novel 3D AIGC approach: generating 3D content from IDEAs. An IDEA is a multimodal input composed of text, image, and 3D models. To our knowledge, this challenging and exciting 3D AIGC setting has not been studied before. We propose the new framework Idea23D, which combines three agents based on large multimodal models (LMMs) and existing algorithmic tools. These three LMM-based agents are tasked with prompt generation, model selection, and feedback reflection. They collaborate and critique each other in a fully automated loop, without human intervention. The framework then generates a text prompt to create 3D models that align closely with the input IDEAs. We demonstrate impressive 3D AIGC results that surpass previous methods. To comprehensively assess the 3D AIGC capabilities of Idea23D, we introduce the Eval3DAIGC-198 dataset, containing 198 multimodal inputs for 3D generation tasks. This dataset evaluates the alignment between generated 3D content and input IDEAs. Our user study and quantitative results show that Idea23D significantly improves the success rate and accuracy of 3D generation, with excellent compatibility across various LMM, Text-to-Image, and Image-to-3D models. Code and dataset are available at \url{https://idea23d.github.io/}.
Convergence analysis of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in high-dimensional statistical applications is increasingly recognized. In this paper, we develop general mixing time bounds for Metropolis-Hastings algorithms on discrete spaces by building upon and refining some recent theoretical advancements in Bayesian model selection problems. We establish sufficient conditions for a class of informed Metropolis-Hastings algorithms to attain relaxation times that are independent of the problem dimension. These conditions are grounded in high-dimensional statistical theory and allow for possibly multimodal posterior distributions. We obtain our results through two independent techniques: the multicommodity flow method and single-element drift condition analysis; we find that the latter yields a tighter mixing time bound. Our results and proof techniques are readily applicable to a broad spectrum of statistical problems with discrete parameter spaces.
Pre-trained deep learning (DL) models are increasingly accessible in public repositories, i.e., model zoos. Given a new prediction task, finding the best model to fine-tune can be computationally intensive and costly, especially when the number of pre-trained models is large. Selecting the right pre-trained models is crucial, yet complicated by the diversity of models from various model families (like ResNet, Vit, Swin) and the hidden relationships between models and datasets. Existing methods, which utilize basic information from models and datasets to compute scores indicating model performance on target datasets, overlook the intrinsic relationships, limiting their effectiveness in model selection. In this study, we introduce TransferGraph, a novel framework that reformulates model selection as a graph learning problem. TransferGraph constructs a graph using extensive metadata extracted from models and datasets, while capturing their inherent relationships. Through comprehensive experiments across 16 real datasets, both images and texts, we demonstrate TransferGraph's effectiveness in capturing essential model-dataset relationships, yielding up to a 32% improvement in correlation between predicted performance and the actual fine-tuning results compared to the state-of-the-art methods.
We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013-2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a neural network classifier (Neural Net), histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conduct a simulation study. By simulating different data-generating scenarios, we assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression (LR), thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials.
Here we examine whether the personality dimension of openness to experience can be predicted from the individual google search history. By web scraping, individual text corpora (ICs) were generated from 214 participants with a mean number of 5 million word tokens. We trained word2vec models and used the similarities of each IC to label words, which were derived from a lexical approach of personality. These IC-label-word similarities were utilized as predictive features in neural models. For training and validation, we relied on 179 participants and held out a test sample of 35 participants. A grid search with varying number of predictive features, hidden units and boost factor was performed. As model selection criterion, we used R2 in the validation samples penalized by the absolute R2 difference between training and validation. The selected neural model explained 35% of the openness variance in the test sample, while an ensemble model with the same architecture often provided slightly more stable predictions for intellectual interests, knowledge in humanities and level of education. Finally, a learning curve analysis suggested that around 500 training participants are required for generalizable predictions. We discuss ICs as a complement or replacement of survey-based psychodiagnostics.
Bayesian nonparametric models offer a flexible and powerful framework for statistical model selection, enabling the adaptation of model complexity to the intricacies of diverse datasets. This survey intends to delve into the significance of Bayesian nonparametrics, particularly in addressing complex challenges across various domains such as statistics, computer science, and electrical engineering. By elucidating the basic properties and theoretical foundations of these nonparametric models, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Bayesian nonparametrics and their relevance in addressing complex problems, particularly in the domain of multi-object tracking. Through this exploration, we uncover the versatility and efficacy of Bayesian nonparametric methodologies, paving the way for innovative solutions to intricate challenges across diverse disciplines.
This position paper proposes a systematic approach towards developing a framework to help select the most effective embedding models for natural language processing (NLP) tasks, addressing the challenge posed by the proliferation of both proprietary and open-source encoder models.
The choice of a graph learning (GL) model (i.e., a GL algorithm and its hyperparameter settings) has a significant impact on the performance of downstream tasks. However, selecting the right GL model becomes increasingly difficult and time consuming as more and more GL models are developed. Accordingly, it is of great significance and practical value to equip users of GL with the ability to perform a near-instantaneous selection of an effective GL model without manual intervention. Despite the recent attempts to tackle this important problem, there has been no comprehensive benchmark environment to evaluate the performance of GL model selection methods. To bridge this gap, we present GLEMOS in this work, a comprehensive benchmark for instantaneous GL model selection that makes the following contributions. (i) GLEMOS provides extensive benchmark data for fundamental GL tasks, i.e., link prediction and node classification, including the performances of 366 models on 457 graphs on these tasks. (ii) GLEMOS designs multiple evaluation settings, and assesses how effectively representative model selection techniques perform in these different settings. (iii) GLEMOS is designed to be easily extended with new models, new graphs, and new performance records. (iv) Based on the experimental results, we discuss the limitations of existing approaches and highlight future research directions. To promote research on this significant problem, we make the benchmark data and code publicly available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/glemos.