Laser-directed-energy deposition (DED) offers advantages in additive manufacturing (AM) for creating intricate geometries and material grading. Yet, challenges like material inconsistency and part variability remain, mainly due to its layer-wise fabrication. A key issue is heat accumulation during DED, which affects the material microstructure and properties. While closed-loop control methods for heat management are common in DED research, few integrate real-time monitoring, physics-based modeling, and control in a unified framework. Our work presents a digital twin (DT) framework for real-time predictive control of DED process parameters to meet specific design objectives. We develop a surrogate model using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based machine learning with Bayesian Inference to predict temperatures in DED parts. This model predicts future temperature states in real time. We also introduce Bayesian Optimization (BO) for Time Series Process Optimization (BOTSPO), based on traditional BO but featuring a unique time series process profile generator with reduced dimensions. BOTSPO dynamically optimizes processes, identifying optimal laser power profiles to attain desired mechanical properties. The established process trajectory guides online optimizations, aiming to enhance performance. This paper outlines the digital twin framework's components, promoting its integration into a comprehensive system for AM.
Matting with a static background, often referred to as ``Background Matting" (BGM), has garnered significant attention within the computer vision community due to its pivotal role in various practical applications like webcasting and photo editing. Nevertheless, achieving highly accurate background matting remains a formidable challenge, primarily owing to the limitations inherent in conventional RGB images. These limitations manifest in the form of susceptibility to varying lighting conditions and unforeseen shadows. In this paper, we leverage the rich depth information provided by the RGB-Depth (RGB-D) cameras to enhance background matting performance in real-time, dubbed DART. Firstly, we adapt the original RGB-based BGM algorithm to incorporate depth information. The resulting model's output undergoes refinement through Bayesian inference, incorporating a background depth prior. The posterior prediction is then translated into a "trimap," which is subsequently fed into a state-of-the-art matting algorithm to generate more precise alpha mattes. To ensure real-time matting capabilities, a critical requirement for many real-world applications, we distill the backbone of our model from a larger and more versatile BGM network. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method. Moreover, thanks to the distillation operation, our method achieves a remarkable processing speed of 33 frames per second (fps) on a mid-range edge-computing device. This high efficiency underscores DART's immense potential for deployment in mobile applications}
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a prominent particle-based variational inference method used for sampling a target distribution. SVGD has attracted interest for application in machine-learning techniques such as Bayesian inference. In this paper, we propose novel trainable algorithms that incorporate a deep-learning technique called deep unfolding,into SVGD. This approach facilitates the learning of the internal parameters of SVGD, thereby accelerating its convergence speed. To evaluate the proposed trainable SVGD algorithms, we conducted numerical simulations of three tasks: sampling a one-dimensional Gaussian mixture, performing Bayesian logistic regression, and learning Bayesian neural networks. The results show that our proposed algorithms exhibit faster convergence than the conventional variants of SVGD.
Abstract—This paper addresses the distribution system state estimation (DSSE) with unknown topology change. A specific kernel that can transfer across tasks is adopted to find relevant patterns from samples under different topologies and induce knowledge transfer. This enables the proposed method to achieve effective inductive reasoning when only limited data are available under a new topology. The Bayesian inference inherently allows us to quantify the uncertainties of the DSSE results. Comparative results with other methods on IEEE test systems demonstrate the improved accuracy and robustness against topology change.
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for image inversion by deriving a probabilistic counterpart to the regularization-by-denoising (RED) paradigm. It additionally implements a Monte Carlo algorithm specifically tailored for sampling from the resulting posterior distribution, based on an asymptotically exact data augmentation (AXDA). The proposed algorithm is an approximate instance of split Gibbs sampling (SGS) which embeds one Langevin Monte Carlo step. The proposed method is applied to common imaging tasks such as deblurring, inpainting and super-resolution, demonstrating its efficacy through extensive numerical experiments. These contributions advance Bayesian inference in imaging by leveraging data-driven regularization strategies within a probabilistic framework.
BlackJAX is a library implementing sampling and variational inference algorithms commonly used in Bayesian computation. It is designed for ease of use, speed, and modularity by taking a functional approach to the algorithms' implementation. BlackJAX is written in Python, using JAX to compile and run NumpPy-like samplers and variational methods on CPUs, GPUs, and TPUs. The library integrates well with probabilistic programming languages by working directly with the (un-normalized) target log density function. BlackJAX is intended as a collection of low-level, composable implementations of basic statistical 'atoms' that can be combined to perform well-defined Bayesian inference, but also provides high-level routines for ease of use. It is designed for users who need cutting-edge methods, researchers who want to create complex sampling methods, and people who want to learn how these work.
Goal recognition is a fundamental cognitive process that enables individuals to infer intentions based on available cues. Current goal recognition algorithms often take only observed actions as input, but here we use a Bayesian framework to explore the role of actions, timing, and goal solvability in goal recognition. We analyze human responses to goal-recognition problems in the Sokoban domain, and find that actions are assigned most importance, but that timing and solvability also influence goal recognition in some cases, especially when actions are uninformative. We leverage these findings to develop a goal recognition model that matches human inferences more closely than do existing algorithms. Our work provides new insight into human goal recognition and takes a step towards more human-like AI models.
A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically estimated, via a joint loss function, whilst extending existing quantile time series models to incorporate multiple realized measures. A quasi-likelihood is built, employing the asymmetric Laplace distribution that is directly linked to a joint loss function, which enables Bayesian inference for the proposed model. An adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used for the model estimation. The empirical section evaluates the performance of the proposed framework with six stock markets from January 2000 to June 2022, covering the period of COVID-19. Three realized measures, including 5- minute realized variance, bi-power variation, and realized kernel, are incorporated and evaluated in the proposed framework. One-step-ahead VaR and ES forecasting results of the proposed model are compared to a range of parametric and semi-parametric models, lending support to the effectiveness of the proposed framework.
To find New Physics or to refine our knowledge of the Standard Model at the LHC is an enterprise that involves many factors. We focus on taking advantage of available information and pour our effort in re-thinking the usual data-driven ABCD method to improve it and to generalize it using Bayesian Machine Learning tools. We propose that a dataset consisting of a signal and many backgrounds is well described through a mixture model. Signal, backgrounds and their relative fractions in the sample can be well extracted by exploiting the prior knowledge and the dependence between the different observables at the event-by-event level with Bayesian tools. We show how, in contrast to the ABCD method, one can take advantage of understanding some properties of the different backgrounds and of having more than two independent observables to measure in each event. In addition, instead of regions defined through hard cuts, the Bayesian framework uses the information of continuous distribution to obtain soft-assignments of the events which are statistically more robust. To compare both methods we use a toy problem inspired by $pp\to hh\to b\bar b b \bar b$, selecting a reduced and simplified number of processes and analysing the flavor of the four jets and the invariant mass of the jet-pairs, modeled with simplified distributions. Taking advantage of all this information, and starting from a combination of biased and agnostic priors, leads us to a very good posterior once we use the Bayesian framework to exploit the data and the mutual information of the observables at the event-by-event level. We show how, in this simplified model, the Bayesian framework outperforms the ABCD method sensitivity in obtaining the signal fraction in scenarios with $1\%$ and $0.5\%$ true signal fractions in the dataset. We also show that the method is robust against the absence of signal.
In the field of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS), known for their openness, dynamism, and cooperative nature, the ability to trust the resources and services of other agents is crucial. Trust, in this setting, is the reliance and confidence an agent has in the information, behaviors, intentions, truthfulness, and capabilities of others within the system. Our paper introduces a new graphical approach that utilizes factor graphs to represent the interdependent behaviors and trustworthiness among agents. This includes modeling the behavior of robots as a trajectory of actions using a Gaussian process factor graph, which accounts for smoothness, obstacle avoidance, and trust-related factors. Our method for evaluating trust is decentralized and considers key interdependent sub-factors such as proximity safety, consistency, and cooperation. The overall system comprises a network of factor graphs that interact through trust-related factors and employs a Bayesian inference method to dynamically assess trust-based decisions with informed consent. The effectiveness of this method is validated via simulations and empirical tests with autonomous robots navigating unsignalized intersections.
Efficient learning and model compression algorithm for deep neural network (DNN) is a key workhorse behind the rise of deep learning (DL). In this work, we propose a message passing based Bayesian deep learning algorithm called EM-TDAMP to avoid the drawbacks of traditional stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based learning algorithms and regularization-based model compression methods. Specifically, we formulate the problem of DNN learning and compression as a sparse Bayesian inference problem, in which group sparse prior is employed to achieve structured model compression. Then, we propose an expectation maximization (EM) framework to estimate posterior distributions for parameters (E-step) and update hyperparameters (M-step), where the E-step is realized by a newly proposed turbo deep approximate message passing (TDAMP) algorithm. We further extend the EM-TDAMP and propose a novel Bayesian federated learning framework, in which and the clients perform TDAMP to efficiently calculate the local posterior distributions based on the local data, and the central server first aggregates the local posterior distributions to update the global posterior distributions and then update hyperparameters based on EM to accelerate convergence. We detail the application of EM-TDAMP to Boston housing price prediction and handwriting recognition, and present extensive numerical results to demonstrate the advantages of EM-TDAMP.
The Bayesian posterior distribution can only be evaluated up-to a constant of proportionality, which makes simulation and consistent estimation challenging. Classical consistent Bayesian methods such as sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) have unbounded time complexity requirements. We develop a fully parallel sequential Monte Carlo (pSMC) method which provably delivers parallel strong scaling, i.e. the time complexity (and per-node memory) remains bounded if the number of asynchronous processes is allowed to grow. More precisely, the pSMC has a theoretical convergence rate of Mean Square Error (MSE)$ = O(1/NP)$, where $N$ denotes the number of communicating samples in each processor and $P$ denotes the number of processors. In particular, for suitably-large problem-dependent $N$, as $P \rightarrow \infty$ the method converges to infinitesimal accuracy MSE$=O(\varepsilon^2)$ with a fixed finite time-complexity Cost$=O(1)$ and with no efficiency leakage, i.e. computational complexity Cost$=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$. A number of Bayesian inference problems are taken into consideration to compare the pSMC and MCMC methods.
As machine learning becomes more prominent there is a growing demand to perform several inference tasks in parallel. Running a dedicated model for each task is computationally expensive and therefore there is a great interest in multi-task learning (MTL). MTL aims at learning a single model that solves several tasks efficiently. Optimizing MTL models is often achieved by computing a single gradient per task and aggregating them for obtaining a combined update direction. However, these approaches do not consider an important aspect, the sensitivity in the gradient dimensions. Here, we introduce a novel gradient aggregation approach using Bayesian inference. We place a probability distribution over the task-specific parameters, which in turn induce a distribution over the gradients of the tasks. This additional valuable information allows us to quantify the uncertainty in each of the gradients dimensions, which can then be factored in when aggregating them. We empirically demonstrate the benefits of our approach in a variety of datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance.
The inadequate mixing of conventional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for multi-modal distributions presents a significant challenge in practical applications such as Bayesian inference and molecular dynamics. Addressing this, we propose Diffusive Gibbs Sampling (DiGS), an innovative family of sampling methods designed for effective sampling from distributions characterized by distant and disconnected modes. DiGS integrates recent developments in diffusion models, leveraging Gaussian convolution to create an auxiliary noisy distribution that bridges isolated modes in the original space and applying Gibbs sampling to alternately draw samples from both spaces. A novel Metropolis-within-Gibbs scheme is proposed to enhance mixing in the denoising sampling step. DiGS exhibits a better mixing property for sampling multi-modal distributions than state-of-the-art methods such as parallel tempering, attaining substantially improved performance across various tasks, including mixtures of Gaussians, Bayesian neural networks and molecular dynamics.
Integrative modeling of macromolecular assemblies allows for structural characterization of large assemblies that are recalcitrant to direct experimental observation. A Bayesian inference approach facilitates combining data from complementary experiments along with physical principles, statistics of known structures, and prior models, for structure determination. Here, we review recent methods for integrative modeling based on statistical inference and machine learning. These methods improve over the current state-of-the-art by enhancing the data collection, optimizing coarse-grained model representations, making scoring functions more accurate, sampling more efficient, and model analysis more rigorous. We also discuss three new frontiers in integrative modeling: incorporating recent deep learning-based methods, integrative modeling with in situ data, and metamodeling.
This study presents a Bayesian maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (MAP) framework for dynamical system identification from time-series data. This is shown to be equivalent to a generalized Tikhonov regularization, providing a rational justification for the choice of the residual and regularization terms, respectively, from the negative logarithms of the likelihood and prior distributions. In addition to the estimation of model coefficients, the Bayesian interpretation gives access to the full apparatus for Bayesian inference, including the ranking of models, the quantification of model uncertainties and the estimation of unknown (nuisance) hyperparameters. Two Bayesian algorithms, joint maximum \textit{a~posteriori} (JMAP) and variational Bayesian approximation (VBA), are compared to the {LASSO, ridge regression and SINDy algorithms for sparse} regression, by application to several dynamical systems with added {Gaussian or Laplace} noise. For multivariate Gaussian likelihood and prior distributions, the Bayesian formulation gives Gaussian posterior and evidence distributions, in which the numerator terms can be expressed in terms of the Mahalanobis distance or ``Gaussian norm'' $||\vec{y}-\hat{\vec{y}}||^2_{M^{-1}} = (\vec{y}-\hat{\vec{y}})^\top {M^{-1}} (\vec{y}-\hat{\vec{y}})$, where $\vec{y}$ is a vector variable, $\hat{\vec{y}}$ is its estimator and $M$ is the covariance matrix. The posterior Gaussian norm is shown to provide a robust metric for quantitative model selection {for the different systems and noise models examined.}
This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with an intractable likelihood, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in non-convex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.
Simulating sampling algorithms with people has proven a useful method for efficiently probing and understanding their mental representations. We propose that the same methods can be used to study the representations of Large Language Models (LLMs). While one can always directly prompt either humans or LLMs to disclose their mental representations introspectively, we show that increased efficiency can be achieved by using LLMs as elements of a sampling algorithm. We explore the extent to which we recover human-like representations when LLMs are interrogated with Direct Sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We found a significant increase in efficiency and performance using adaptive sampling algorithms based on MCMC. We also highlight the potential of our method to yield a more general method of conducting Bayesian inference \textit{with} LLMs.
Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) trained for next-word prediction have demonstrated remarkable proficiency at producing coherent text. But are they equally adept at forming coherent probability judgments? We use probabilistic identities and repeated judgments to assess the coherence of probability judgments made by LLMs. Our results show that the judgments produced by these models are often incoherent, displaying human-like systematic deviations from the rules of probability theory. Moreover, when prompted to judge the same event, the mean-variance relationship of probability judgments produced by LLMs shows an inverted-U-shaped like that seen in humans. We propose that these deviations from rationality can be explained by linking autoregressive LLMs to implicit Bayesian inference and drawing parallels with the Bayesian Sampler model of human probability judgments.
Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In this paper, we propose a distributed sampling scheme based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, which is commonly used in the optimization literature due to its fast convergence. In contrast to distributed optimization, distributed sampling allows for uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference tasks. We provide both theoretical guarantees of our algorithm's convergence and experimental evidence of its superiority to the state-of-the-art. For our theoretical results, we use convex optimization tools to establish a fundamental inequality on the generated local sample iterates. This inequality enables us to show convergence of the distribution associated with these iterates to the underlying target distribution in Wasserstein distance. In simulation, we deploy our algorithm on linear and logistic regression tasks and illustrate its fast convergence compared to existing gradient-based methods.