Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used in biology to understand how individual actions scale into emergent population behavior. Modelers employ sensitivity analysis (SA) algorithms to quantify input parameters' impact on model outputs, however, it is hard to perform SA for ABMs due to their computational and complex nature. In this work, we develop the Simulate, Summarize, Reduce, Cluster, and Analyze (SSRCA) methodology, a machine-learning based pipeline designed to facilitate SA for ABMs. In particular, SSRCA can achieve the following tasks for ABMS: 1) identify sensitive model parameters, 2) reveal common output model patterns, and 3) determine which input parameter values generate these patterns. We use an example ABM of tumor spheroid growth to showcase how SSRCA provides similar SA results to the popular Sobol' Method while also identifying four common patterns from the ABM and the parameter regions that generate these outputs. This analysis could streamline data-driven tasks, such as parameter estimation, for ABMs by reducing parameter space. While we highlight these results with an ABM on tumor spheroid formation, the SSRCA methodology is broadly applicable to biological ABMs.
Multiple-shooting is a parameter estimation approach for ordinary differential equations. In this approach, the trajectory is broken into small intervals, each of which can be integrated independently. Equality constraints are then applied to eliminate the shooting gap between the end of the previous trajectory and the start of the next trajectory. Unlike single-shooting, multiple-shooting is more stable, especially for highly oscillatory and long trajectories. In the context of neural ordinary differential equations, multiple-shooting is not widely used due to the challenge of incorporating general equality constraints. In this work, we propose a condensing-based approach to incorporate these shooting equality constraints while training a multiple-shooting neural ordinary differential equation (MS-NODE) using first-order optimization methods such as Adam.
Channel estimation is not only essential to highly reliable data transmission and massive device access but also an important component of the integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) in the sixth-generation (6G) mobile communication systems. In this paper, we consider a downlink channel estimation problem for circular reconfigurable intelligent surface (RIS)-aided millimeter-wave (mmWave) multiple-input multiple-output non-orthogonal multiple access (MIMO-NOMA) system in mobility scenarios. First, we propose a subframe partitioning scheme to facilitate the modeling of the received signal as a fourth-order tensor satisfying a canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD) form, thereby formulating the channel estimation problem as tensor decomposition and parameter extraction problems. Then, by exploiting both the global and local low-rank properties of the received signal, we propose a double low-rank 4D tensor decomposition model to decompose the received signal into four factor matrices, which is efficiently solved via alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Subsequently, we propose a two-stage parameter estimation method based on the Jacobi-Anger expansion and the special structure of circular RIS to uniquely decouple the angle parameters. Furthermore, the time delay, Doppler shift, and channel gain parameters can also be estimated without ambiguities, and their estimation accuracy can be efficiently improved, especially at low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Finally, a concise closed-form expression for the Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB) is derived as a performance benchmark. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with the other discussed methods.
Future 6G networks envisions to blur the line between communication and sensing, leveraging ubiquitous OFDM waveforms for both high throughput data and environmental awareness. In this work, we do a thorough analysis of Communication based Sensing (CommSense) framework that embeds lightweight, PCA based detectors into standard OFDM receivers; enabling real-time, device free detection of passive scatterers (e.g.\ drones, vehicles etc.) without any extra transmitters. Starting from a realistic three link Rician channel model (direct Tx\(\rightarrow\)Rx, cascaded Tx\(\rightarrow\)Scatterer and Scatterer\(\rightarrow\)Rx), we compare four detectors: the full dimensional Likelihood Ratio Test (Full LRT), PCA based LRT, PCA+SVM with linear and RBF kernels. By projecting \(N\)-dimensional CSI onto a \(P\ll N\) principal component subspace, inference time gets reduced by an order of magnitude compared to the full LRT, while achieving optimal error rates i.e. empirical errors align tightly with the Bhattacharyya error bound and Area Under ROC Curve (AUC)\(\approx1\) for \(P\approx10\). PCA+SVM classifiers further improve robustness in very high dimensions (\(N=1024\)), maintaining AUC\(\gtrsim0.60\) at \(-10\)dB and exceeding 0.90 by 0dB even when full LRT fails due to numerical overflow. From the simulated result we have shown LRT based techniques are susceptible to the parameter estimation error, where as SVM is resilient to that. Our results demonstrate that PCA driven detection when paired with lightweight SVMs can deliver fast, accurate, and robust scatterer sensing, paving the way for integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) in 6G and beyond.
Gaussian and Laplacian entropy models are proved effective in learned point cloud attribute compression, as they assist in arithmetic coding of latents. However, we demonstrate through experiments that there is still unutilized information in entropy parameters estimated by neural networks in current methods, which can be used for more accurate probability estimation. Thus we introduce generalized Gaussian entropy model, which controls the tail shape through shape parameter to more accurately estimate the probability of latents. Meanwhile, to the best of our knowledge, existing methods use fixed likelihood intervals for each integer during arithmetic coding, which limits model performance. We propose Mean Error Discriminator (MED) to determine whether the entropy parameter estimation is accurate and then dynamically adjust likelihood intervals. Experiments show that our method significantly improves rate-distortion (RD) performance on three VAE-based models for point cloud attribute compression, and our method can be applied to other compression tasks, such as image and video compression.
Physics-inspired inference often hinges on the ability to construct a likelihood, or the probability of observing a sequence of data given a model. These likelihoods can be directly maximized for parameter estimation, incorporated into Bayesian frameworks, or even used as loss functions in neural networks. Yet, many models, despite being conceptually simple, lack tractable likelihoods. A notable example arises in estimating protein production from snapshot measurements of actively dividing cells. Here, the challenge stems from cell divisions occurring at non-Exponentially distributed intervals with each division stochastically partitioning protein content between daughter cells, making protein counts in any given cell a function of its full division history. Such history dependence precludes a straightforward likelihood based on a (standard Markovian) master equation. Instead, we employ conditional normalizing flows (a class of neural network models designed to learn probability distributions) to approximate otherwise intractable likelihoods from simulated data. As a case study, we examine activation of the \emph{glc3} gene in yeast involved in glycogen synthesis and expressed under nutrient-limiting conditions. We monitor this activity using snapshot fluorescence measurements via flow cytometry, where GFP expression reflects \emph{glc3} promoter activity. A na\"ive analysis of flow cytometry data ignoring cell division suggests many cells are active with low expression. However, fluorescent proteins persist and can be inherited, so cells may appear active from retaining ancestral fluorescence. Explicitly accounting for the (non-Markovian) effects of cell division reveals \emph{glc3} is mostly inactive under stress, showing that while cells occasionally activate it, expression is brief and transient.
In this brief note we recall the little-known fact that, for linear regression equations (LRE) with intervally excited (IE) regressors, standard Least Square (LS) parameter estimators ensure finite convergence time (FCT) of the estimated parameters. The convergence time being equal to the time length needed to comply with the IE assumption. As is well-known, IE is necessary and sufficient for the identifiability of the LRE-hence, it is the weakest assumption for the on-or off-line solution of the parameter estimation problem.
This paper introduces a hypothetical hybrid control framework for port-Hamiltonian (p$\mathcal{H}$) systems, employing a dynamic decomposition based on Data-Assisted Control (DAC). The system's evolution is split into two parts with fixed topology: Right-Hand Side (RHS)- an intrinsic Hamiltonian flow handling worst-case parametric uncertainties, and Left-Hand Side (LHS)- a dissipative/input flow addressing both structural and parametric uncertainties. A virtual port variable $\Pi$ serves as the interface between these two components. A nonlinear controller manages the intrinsic Hamiltonian flow, determining a desired port control value $\Pi_c$. Concurrently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) is applied to the dissipative/input flow to learn an agent for providing optimal policy in mapping $\Pi_c$ to the actual system input. This hybrid approach effectively manages RHS uncertainties while preserving the system's inherent structure. Key advantages include adjustable performance via LHS controller parameters, enhanced AI explainability and interpretability through the port variable $\Pi$, the ability to guarantee safety and state attainability with hard/soft constraints, reduced complexity in learning hypothesis classes compared to end-to-end solutions, and improved state/parameter estimation using LHS prior knowledge and system Hamiltonian to address partial observability. The paper details the p$\mathcal{H}$ formulation, derives the decomposition, and presents the modular controller architecture. Beyond design, crucial aspects of stability and robustness analysis and synthesis are investigated, paving the way for deeper theoretical investigations. An application example, a pendulum with nonlinear dynamics, is simulated to demonstrate the approach's empirical and phenomenological benefits for future research.
Signal restoration and inverse problems are key elements in most real-world data science applications. In the past decades, with the emergence of machine learning methods, inversion of measurements has become a popular step in almost all physical applications, which is normally executed prior to downstream tasks that often involve parameter estimation. In this work, we analyze the general problem of parameter estimation in an inverse problem setting. First, we address the domain-shift problem by re-formulating it in direct relation with the discrete parameter estimation analysis. We analyze a significant vulnerability in current attempts to enforce domain generalization, which we dubbed the Double Meaning Theorem. Our theoretical findings are experimentally illustrated for domain shift examples in image deblurring and speckle suppression in medical imaging. We then proceed to a theoretical analysis of parameter estimation given observed measurements before and after data processing involving an inversion of the observations. We compare this setting for invertible and non-invertible (degradation) processes. We distinguish between continuous and discrete parameter estimation, corresponding with regression and classification problems, respectively. Our theoretical findings align with the well-known information-theoretic data processing inequality, and to a certain degree question the common misconception that data-processing for inversion, based on modern generative models that may often produce outstanding perceptual quality, will necessarily improve the following parameter estimation objective. It is our hope that this paper will provide practitioners with deeper insights that may be leveraged in the future for the development of more efficient and informed strategic system planning, critical in safety-sensitive applications.
Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) are emerging as a powerful framework for interpretable and efficient system identification in dynamic systems. By leveraging the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, KANs enable function approximation through learnable activation functions, offering improved scalability, accuracy, and interpretability compared to traditional neural networks. This paper investigates the application of KANs to model and analyze the dynamics of a buck converter system, focusing on state-space parameter estimation along with discovering the system equations. Using simulation data, the methodology involves approximating state derivatives with KANs, constructing interpretable state-space representations, and validating these models through numerical experiments. The results demonstrate the ability of KANs to accurately identify system dynamics, verify model consistency, and detect parameter changes, providing valuable insights into their applicability for system identification in modern industrial systems.
Neural rendering has made significant strides in 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis. With the integration with physics, it opens up new applications. The inverse problem of estimating physics from visual data, however, still remains challenging, limiting its effectiveness for applications like physically accurate digital twin creation in robotics and XR. Existing methods that incorporate physics into neural rendering frameworks typically require dense multi-view videos as input, making them impractical for scalable, real-world use. When presented with sparse multi-view videos, the sequential optimization strategy used by existing approaches introduces significant error accumulation, e.g., poor initial 3D reconstruction leads to bad material parameter estimation in subsequent stages. Instead of sequential optimization, directly optimizing all parameters at the same time also fails due to the highly non-convex and often non-differentiable nature of the problem. We propose ProJo4D, a progressive joint optimization framework that gradually increases the set of jointly optimized parameters guided by their sensitivity, leading to fully joint optimization over geometry, appearance, physical state, and material property. Evaluations on PAC-NeRF and Spring-Gaus datasets show that ProJo4D outperforms prior work in 4D future state prediction, novel view rendering of future state, and material parameter estimation, demonstrating its effectiveness in physically grounded 4D scene understanding. For demos, please visit the project webpage: https://daniel03c1.github.io/ProJo4D/
Statistical inference in physics is often based on samples from a generator (sometimes referred to as a ``forward model") that emulate experimental data and depend on parameters of the underlying theory. Modern machine learning has supercharged this workflow to enable high-dimensional and unbinned analyses to utilize much more information than ever before. We propose a general framework for describing the integration of machine learning with generators called Generator Based Inference (GBI). A well-studied special case of this setup is Simulation Based Inference (SBI) where the generator is a physics-based simulator. In this work, we examine other methods within the GBI toolkit that use data-driven methods to build the generator. In particular, we focus on resonant anomaly detection, where the generator describing the background is learned from sidebands. We show how to perform machine learning-based parameter estimation in this context with data-derived generators. This transforms the statistical outputs of anomaly detection to be directly interpretable and the performance on the LHCO community benchmark dataset establishes a new state-of-the-art for anomaly detection sensitivity.
We propose a hybrid spreading process model to capture the dynamics of demand for software-based products. We introduce discontinuous jumps in the state to model sudden surges in demand that can be seen immediately after a product update is released. After each update, the modeled demand evolves according to a continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. We identify the necessary and sufficient conditions for estimating the hybrid model's parameters for an arbitrary finite number of sequential updates. We verify the parameter estimation conditions in simulation, and evaluate how the estimation of these parameters is impacted by the presence of observation and process noise. We then validate our model by applying our estimation method to daily user engagement data for a regularly updating software product, the live-service video game `Apex Legends.'
Inverse problem or parameter estimation of ordinary differential equations is a process of obtaining the best parameters using experimental measurements of the states. Single (Multiple)-shooting is a type of sequential optimization method that minimizes the error in the measured and numerically integrated states. However, this requires computing sensitivities i.e. the derivatives of states with respect to the parameters over the numerical integrator, which can get computationally expensive. To address this challenge, many interpolation-based approaches have been proposed to either reduce the computational cost of sensitivity calculations or eliminate their need. In this paper, we use a bi-level optimization framework that leverages interpolation and exploits the structure of the differential equation to solve an inner convex optimization problem. We apply this method to two different problem formulations. First, parameter estimation for differential equations, and delayed differential equations, where the model structure is known but the parameters are unknown. Second, model discovery problems, where both the model structure and parameters are unknown.
IntLevPy provides a comprehensive description of the IntLevPy Package, a Python library designed for simulating and analyzing intermittent and L\'evy processes. The package includes functionalities for process simulation, including full parameter estimation and fitting optimization for both families of processes, moment calculation, and classification methods. The classification methodology utilizes adjusted-$R^2$ and a noble performance measure {\Gamma}, enabling the distinction between intermittent and L\'evy processes. IntLevPy integrates iterative parameter optimization with simulation-based validation. This paper provides an in-depth user guide covering IntLevPy software architecture, installation, validation workflows, and usage examples. In this way, IntLevPy facilitates systematic exploration of these two broad classes of stochastic processes, bridging theoretical models and practical applications.
Recent advances in language modeling have underscored the role of preference feedback in enhancing model performance. This paper investigates the conditions under which preference feedback improves parameter estimation in classes of continuous parametric distributions. In our framework, the learner observes pairs of samples from an unknown distribution along with their relative preferences depending on the same unknown parameter. We show that preference-based M-estimators achieve a better asymptotic variance than sample-only M-estimators, further improved by deterministic preferences. Leveraging the hard constraints revealed by deterministic preferences, we propose an estimator achieving an estimation error scaling of $\mathcal{O}(1/n)$ -- a significant improvement over the $\Theta(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate attainable with samples alone. Next, we establish a lower bound that matches this accelerated rate; up to dimension and problem-dependent constants. While the assumptions underpinning our analysis are restrictive, they are satisfied by notable cases such as Gaussian or Laplace distributions for preferences based on the log-probability reward.
Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs) possess a number of properties desirable for a modern classifier: They are easily interpretable, highly scalable, and offer adaptable complexity. However, traditional methods for learning BNCs have historically underperformed when compared to leading classification methods such as random forests. Recent parameter smoothing techniques using hierarchical Dirichlet processes (HDPs) have enabled BNCs to achieve performance competitive with random forests on categorical data, but these techniques are relatively inflexible, and require a complicated, specialized sampling process. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for parameter estimation that uses a log-linear regression to approximate the behaviour of HDPs. As a linear model, our method is remarkably flexible and simple to interpret, and can leverage the vast literature on learning linear models. Our experiments show that our method can outperform HDP smoothing while being orders of magnitude faster, remaining competitive with random forests on categorical data.
Data-driven discovery of dynamics in biological systems allows for better observation and characterization of processes, such as calcium signaling in cell culture. Recent advancements in techniques allow the exploration of previously unattainable insights of dynamical systems, such as the Sparse Identification of Non-Linear Dynamics (SINDy), overcoming the limitations of more classic methodologies. The latter requires some prior knowledge of an effective library of candidate terms, which is not realistic for a real case study. Using inspiration from fields like traffic density estimation and control theory, we propose a methodology for characterization and performance analysis of calcium delivery in a family of cells. In this work, we compare the performance of the Constrained Regularized Least-Squares Method (CRLSM) and Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) for system identification and parameter discovery for governing ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The CRLSM achieves a fairly good parameter estimate and a good data fit when using the learned parameters in the Consensus problem. On the other hand, despite the initial hypothesis, PINNs fail to match the CRLSM performance and, under the current configuration, do not provide fair parameter estimation. However, we have only studied a limited number of PINN architectures, and it is expected that additional hyperparameter tuning, as well as uncertainty quantification, could significantly improve the performance in future works.
To be fully useful for public health practice, models for epidemic response must be able to do more than predict -- it is also important to incorporate the mechanisms underlying transmission dynamics to enable policymakers and practitioners to be able to evaluate what-if scenarios and intervention options. However, most mechanistic models suffer from uncertainty in both the parameters (e.g., parameter unidentifiability) and the model structure itself, which can hinder both successful parameter estimation and model interpretation. To enable rapid development of interpretable and parsimonious mechanistic models, we use penalized regression and covariate selection methods to integrate parameter identifiability and model selection directly into the parameter estimation procedure for (in this case) traditional ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. For both simulated and real-world epidemiological data, we demonstrate that the LASSO-ODE framework is highly effective in selecting a parsimonious, identifiable model from larger, more realistic but potentially unidentifiable models, from realistically sparse data with only a single measured compartment and multiple latent (unobserved) variables. While we focus on epidemic models in this paper as a case study, these same approaches are applicable to a wide range of application areas that are faced with relatively sparse data but a need for realistic mechanistic models (e.g. mathematical oncology and mathematical biology more broadly). Additionally, the cross-validation techniques designed for time series data introduced in our study can be used across a range of time series analysis and modeling approaches.
In this paper we address the problem of online detection of inter-turn short-circuit faults (ITSCFs) that occur in permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs). We propose two solutions to this problem: (i) a very simple linear observer and (ii) a generalized parameter estimation based observer, that incorporates a high performance estimator -- with both observers detecting the short-circuit current and the fault intensity. Although the first solution guarantees the detection of the fault exponentially fast, the rate of convergence is fully determined by the motor parameters that, in some cases, may be too slow. The second observer, on the other hand, ensures finite convergence time under the weakest assumption of interval excitation. To make the observers adaptive, we develop a parameter estimator that, in the case of isotropic PMSMs, estimates on-line (exponentially fast) the resistance and inductance of the motor. It should be underscored that, in contrast with existing observers (including the widely popular Kalman filter) that provide indirect information of the fault current, our observers provide explicit one -- namely the amplitude of the fault current. The performance of both observers, in their linear and generalized parameter estimation-based versions, is illustrated with realistic simulation studies.