Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social science, and industrial manufacturing, the causal units of interest are groups of variables rather than individual scalar measurements. Motivated by these applications, we extend nonlinear additive noise models to handle random vectors, establishing a two-step approach for causal graph learning: First, infer the causal order among random vectors. Second, perform model selection to identify the best graph consistent with this order. We introduce effective and novel solutions for both steps in the vector case, demonstrating strong performance in simulations. Finally, we apply our method to real-world assembly line data with partial knowledge of causal ordering among variable groups.
Sign Language Recognition (SLR) involves the automatic identification and classification of sign gestures from images or video, converting them into text or speech to improve accessibility for the hearing-impaired community. In Bangladesh, Bangla Sign Language (BdSL) serves as the primary mode of communication for many individuals with hearing impairments. This study fine-tunes state-of-the-art video transformer architectures -- VideoMAE, ViViT, and TimeSformer -- on BdSLW60 (arXiv:2402.08635), a small-scale BdSL dataset with 60 frequent signs. We standardized the videos to 30 FPS, resulting in 9,307 user trial clips. To evaluate scalability and robustness, the models were also fine-tuned on BdSLW401 (arXiv:2503.02360), a large-scale dataset with 401 sign classes. Additionally, we benchmark performance against public datasets, including LSA64 and WLASL. Data augmentation techniques such as random cropping, horizontal flipping, and short-side scaling were applied to improve model robustness. To ensure balanced evaluation across folds during model selection, we employed 10-fold stratified cross-validation on the training set, while signer-independent evaluation was carried out using held-out test data from unseen users U4 and U8. Results show that video transformer models significantly outperform traditional machine learning and deep learning approaches. Performance is influenced by factors such as dataset size, video quality, frame distribution, frame rate, and model architecture. Among the models, the VideoMAE variant (MCG-NJU/videomae-base-finetuned-kinetics) achieved the highest accuracies of 95.5% on the frame rate corrected BdSLW60 dataset and 81.04% on the front-facing signs of BdSLW401 -- demonstrating strong potential for scalable and accurate BdSL recognition.
Developing safety-critical automotive software presents significant challenges due to increasing system complexity and strict regulatory demands. This paper proposes a novel framework integrating Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) into the Software Development Lifecycle (SDLC). The framework uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate code generation in languages such as C++, incorporating safety-focused practices such as static verification, test-driven development and iterative refinement. A feedback-driven pipeline ensures the integration of test, simulation and verification for compliance with safety standards. The framework is validated through the development of an Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system. Comparative benchmarking of LLMs ensures optimal model selection for accuracy and reliability. Results demonstrate that the framework enables automatic code generation while ensuring compliance with safety-critical requirements, systematically integrating GenAI into automotive software engineering. This work advances the use of AI in safety-critical domains, bridging the gap between state-of-the-art generative models and real-world safety requirements.
Automating the enrichment of UML class diagrams with behavioral methods from natural language use cases is a significant challenge. This study evaluates nine large language models (LLMs) in augmenting a methodless UML diagram (21 classes, 17 relationships) using 21 structured waste-management use cases. A total of 90 diagrams (3,373 methods) were assessed across six metrics: method quantity, signature richness (visibility, names, parameters, return types), annotation completeness (linking to use cases/actions), structural fidelity, syntactic correctness (PlantUML compilation), and naming convergence (across models). All LLMs produced valid PlantUML diagrams adhering to UML conventions. Some models excelled in method coverage and annotation accuracy, while others showed richer parameterization but weaker traceability. These results demonstrate that LLMs can generate well-structured methods with consistent naming, advancing automated behavioral modeling. However, inconsistencies in annotations and signatures highlight the need for improved prompt engineering and model selection. The rapid generation of these methods supports Agile practices by enabling faster design iterations. Despite their capabilities, human oversight is essential to ensure accuracy, appropriateness, and semantic alignment. This positions LLMs as collaborative partners in software design. All experimental artifacts (\texttt{.puml}, \texttt{.png}, \texttt{.csv}) are publicly available for reproducibility.
Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to align model responses with human preferences. While RLHF employs a reinforcement learning approach with a separate reward model, SFT uses human-curated datasets for supervised learning. Both approaches traditionally depend on small, vetted groups of annotators, making them costly, prone to bias, and limited in scalability. We propose an open, crowd-sourced fine-tuning framework that addresses these limitations by enabling broader feedback collection for SFT without extensive annotator training. Our framework promotes incentive fairness via a point-based reward system correlated with Shapley values and guides model convergence through iterative model updates. Our multi-model selection framework demonstrates up to a 55% reduction in target distance over single-model selection, enabling subsequent experiments that validate our point-based reward mechanism's close alignment with Shapley values (a well-established method for attributing individual contributions) thereby supporting fair and scalable participation.
Recommender systems are pivotal in delivering personalized experiences across industries, yet their adoption and scalability remain hindered by the need for extensive dataset- and task-specific configurations. Existing systems often require significant manual intervention, domain expertise, and engineering effort to adapt to new datasets or tasks, creating barriers to entry and limiting reusability. In contrast, recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated the transformative potential of reusable systems, where a single model can handle diverse tasks without significant reconfiguration. Inspired by this paradigm, we propose the Dataset- and Task-Independent Recommender System (DTIRS), a framework aimed at maximizing the reusability of recommender systems while minimizing barriers to entry. Unlike LLMs, which achieve task generalization directly, DTIRS focuses on eliminating the need to rebuild or reconfigure recommendation pipelines for every new dataset or task, even though models may still need retraining on new data. By leveraging the novel Dataset Description Language (DsDL), DTIRS enables standardized dataset descriptions and explicit task definitions, allowing autonomous feature engineering, model selection, and optimization. This paper introduces the concept of DTIRS and establishes a roadmap for transitioning from Level-1 automation (dataset-agnostic but task-specific systems) to Level-2 automation (fully dataset- and task-independent systems). Achieving this paradigm would maximize code reusability and lower barriers to adoption. We discuss key challenges, including the trade-offs between generalization and specialization, computational overhead, and scalability, while presenting DsDL as a foundational tool for this vision.
As machine learning models are increasingly embedded into society through high-stakes decision-making, selecting the right algorithm for a given task, audience, and sector presents a critical challenge, particularly in the context of fairness. Traditional assessments of model fairness have often framed fairness as an objective mathematical property, treating model selection as an optimization problem under idealized informational conditions. This overlooks model multiplicity as a consideration--that multiple models can deliver similar performance while exhibiting different fairness characteristics. Legal scholars have engaged this challenge through the concept of Less Discriminatory Algorithms (LDAs), which frames model selection as a civil rights obligation. In real-world deployment, this normative challenge is bounded by constraints on fairness experimentation, e.g., regulatory standards, institutional priorities, and resource capacity. Against these considerations, the paper revisits Lee and Floridi (2021)'s relational fairness approach using updated 2021 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, and proposes an expansion of the scope of the LDA search process. We argue that extending the LDA search horizontally, considering fairness across model families themselves, provides a lightweight complement, or alternative, to within-model hyperparameter optimization, when operationalizing fairness in non-experimental, resource constrained settings. Fairness metrics alone offer useful, but insufficient signals to accurately evaluate candidate LDAs. Rather, by using a horizontal LDA search approach with the relational trade-off framework, we demonstrate a responsible minimum viable LDA search on real-world lending outcomes. Organizations can modify this approach to systematically compare, evaluate, and select LDAs that optimize fairness and accuracy in a sector-based contextualized manner.
Motivation: Model selection is a ubiquitous challenge in statistics. For penalized models, model selection typically entails tuning hyperparameters to maximize a measure of fit or minimize out-of-sample prediction error. However, these criteria fail to reflect other desirable characteristics, such as model sparsity, interpretability, or smoothness. Results: We present the R package pared to enable the use of multi-objective optimization for model selection. Our approach entails the use of Gaussian process-based optimization to efficiently identify solutions that represent desirable trade-offs. Our implementation includes popular models with multiple objectives including the elastic net, fused lasso, fused graphical lasso, and group graphical lasso. Our R package generates interactive graphics that allow the user to identify hyperparameter values that result in fitted models which lie on the Pareto frontier. Availability: We provide the R package pared and vignettes illustrating its application to both simulated and real data at https://github.com/priyamdas2/pared.
To be fully useful for public health practice, models for epidemic response must be able to do more than predict -- it is also important to incorporate the mechanisms underlying transmission dynamics to enable policymakers and practitioners to be able to evaluate what-if scenarios and intervention options. However, most mechanistic models suffer from uncertainty in both the parameters (e.g., parameter unidentifiability) and the model structure itself, which can hinder both successful parameter estimation and model interpretation. To enable rapid development of interpretable and parsimonious mechanistic models, we use penalized regression and covariate selection methods to integrate parameter identifiability and model selection directly into the parameter estimation procedure for (in this case) traditional ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. For both simulated and real-world epidemiological data, we demonstrate that the LASSO-ODE framework is highly effective in selecting a parsimonious, identifiable model from larger, more realistic but potentially unidentifiable models, from realistically sparse data with only a single measured compartment and multiple latent (unobserved) variables. While we focus on epidemic models in this paper as a case study, these same approaches are applicable to a wide range of application areas that are faced with relatively sparse data but a need for realistic mechanistic models (e.g. mathematical oncology and mathematical biology more broadly). Additionally, the cross-validation techniques designed for time series data introduced in our study can be used across a range of time series analysis and modeling approaches.
Web 2.0 social platforms are inherently centralized, with user data and algorithmic decisions controlled by the platform. However, users can only passively receive social predictions without being able to choose the underlying algorithm, which limits personalization. Fortunately, with the emergence of blockchain, users are allowed to choose algorithms that are tailored to their local situation, improving prediction results in a personalized way. In a blockchain environment, each user possesses its own model to perform the social prediction, capturing different perspectives on social interactions. In our work, we propose DeSocial, a decentralized social network learning framework deployed on an Ethereum (ETH) local development chain that integrates distributed data storage, node-level consensus, and user-driven model selection through Ganache. In the first stage, each user leverages DeSocial to evaluate multiple backbone models on their local subgraph. DeSocial coordinates the execution and returns model-wise prediction results, enabling the user to select the most suitable backbone for personalized social prediction. Then, DeSocial uniformly selects several validation nodes that possess the algorithm specified by each user, and aggregates the prediction results by majority voting, to prevent errors caused by any single model's misjudgment. Extensive experiments show that DeSocial has an evident improvement compared to the five classical centralized social network learning models, promoting user empowerment in blockchain-based decentralized social networks, showing the importance of multi-node validation and personalized algorithm selection based on blockchain. Our implementation is available at: https://github.com/agiresearch/DeSocial.
Adversarial attacks have become a well-explored domain, frequently serving as evaluation baselines for model robustness. Among these, black-box attacks based on transferability have received significant attention due to their practical applicability in real-world scenarios. Traditional black-box methods have generally focused on improving the optimization framework (e.g., utilizing momentum in MI-FGSM) to enhance transferability, rather than examining the dependency on surrogate white-box model architectures. Recent state-of-the-art approach DiffPGD has demonstrated enhanced transferability by employing diffusion-based adversarial purification models for adaptive attacks. The inductive bias of diffusion-based adversarial purification aligns naturally with the adversarial attack process, where both involving noise addition, reducing dependency on surrogate white-box model selection. However, the denoising process of diffusion models incurs substantial computational costs through chain rule derivation, manifested in excessive VRAM consumption and extended runtime. This progression prompts us to question whether introducing diffusion models is necessary. We hypothesize that a model sharing similar inductive bias to diffusion-based adversarial purification, combined with an appropriate loss function, could achieve comparable or superior transferability while dramatically reducing computational overhead. In this paper, we propose a novel loss function coupled with a unique surrogate model to validate our hypothesis. Our approach leverages the score of the time-dependent classifier from classifier-guided diffusion models, effectively incorporating natural data distribution knowledge into the adversarial optimization process. Experimental results demonstrate significantly improved transferability across diverse model architectures while maintaining robustness against diffusion-based defenses.
We utilise a sampler originating from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, termed here Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin algorithm (JALA), to build statistical estimation methods in latent variable models. We achieve this by leveraging Jarzynski's equality and developing algorithms based on a weighted version of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA) with recursively updated weights. Adapting this for latent variable models, we develop a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method that provides the maximum marginal likelihood estimate of the parameters, termed JALA-EM. Under suitable regularity assumptions on the marginal likelihood, we provide a nonasymptotic analysis of the JALA-EM scheme implemented with stochastic gradient descent and show that it provably converges to the maximum marginal likelihood estimate. We demonstrate the performance of JALA-EM on a variety of latent variable models and show that it performs comparably to existing methods in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Importantly, the ability to recursively estimate marginal likelihoods - an uncommon feature among scalable methods - makes our approach particularly suited for model selection, which we validate through dedicated experiments.
We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite collection of sites. The method relies on the construction of the best linear estimator of the squared prediction error at an arbitrary unsampled site based on squared LOO residuals, assuming that the function is a realization of a Gaussian Process (GP). A theoretical analysis of performance of the ISE estimator is presented, and robustness with respect to the choice of the GP kernel is investigated first analytically, then through numerical examples. Overall, the estimation of ISE is significantly more precise than with classical, unweighted, LOO cross validation. Application to model selection is briefly considered through examples.
The rapid advancement of generative AI models has provided users with numerous options to address their prompts. When selecting a generative AI model for a given prompt, users should consider not only the performance of the chosen model but also its associated service cost. The principle guiding such consideration is to select the least expensive model among the available satisfactory options. However, existing model-selection approaches typically prioritize performance, overlooking pricing differences between models. In this paper, we introduce PromptWise, an online learning framework designed to assign a sequence of prompts to a group of large language models (LLMs) in a cost-effective manner. PromptWise strategically queries cheaper models first, progressing to more expensive options only if the lower-cost models fail to adequately address a given prompt. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate PromptWise's effectiveness across various tasks, including puzzles of varying complexity and code generation/translation tasks. The results highlight that PromptWise consistently outperforms cost-unaware baseline methods, emphasizing that directly assigning prompts to the most expensive models can lead to higher costs and potentially lower average performance.
Recent advancements in Natural Language Processing (NLP) have facilitated the analysis of student-generated language products in learning analytics (LA), particularly through the use of NLP embedding models. Yet when it comes to science-related language, symbolic expressions such as equations and formulas introduce challenges that current embedding models struggle to address. Existing studies and applications often either overlook these challenges or remove symbolic expressions altogether, potentially leading to biased findings and diminished performance of LA applications. This study therefore explores how contemporary embedding models differ in their capability to process and interpret science-related symbolic expressions. To this end, various embedding models are evaluated using physics-specific symbolic expressions drawn from authentic student responses, with performance assessed via two approaches: similarity-based analyses and integration into a machine learning pipeline. Our findings reveal significant differences in model performance, with OpenAI's GPT-text-embedding-3-large outperforming all other examined models, though its advantage over other models was moderate rather than decisive. Beyond performance, additional factors such as cost, regulatory compliance, and model transparency are discussed as key considerations for model selection. Overall, this study underscores the importance for LA researchers and practitioners of carefully selecting NLP embedding models when working with science-related language products that include symbolic expressions.
Open-weight LLM zoos provide access to numerous high-quality models, but selecting the appropriate model for specific tasks remains challenging and requires technical expertise. Most users simply want factually correct, safe, and satisfying responses without concerning themselves with model technicalities, while inference service providers prioritize minimizing operating costs. These competing interests are typically mediated through service level agreements (SLAs) that guarantee minimum service quality. We introduce MESS+, a stochastic optimization algorithm for cost-optimal LLM request routing while providing rigorous SLA compliance guarantees. MESS+ learns request satisfaction probabilities of LLMs in real-time as users interact with the system, based on which model selection decisions are made by solving a per-request optimization problem. Our algorithm includes a novel combination of virtual queues and request satisfaction prediction, along with a theoretical analysis of cost optimality and constraint satisfaction. Across a wide range of state-of-the-art LLM benchmarks, MESS+ achieves an average of 2x cost savings compared to existing LLM routing techniques.
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a critical yet challenging aspect of machine learning model development, significantly impacting model performance and generalization. Traditional HPO methods often struggle with high dimensionality, complex interdependencies, and computational expense. This paper introduces OptiMindTune, a novel multi-agent framework designed to intelligently and efficiently optimize hyperparameters. OptiMindTune leverages the collaborative intelligence of three specialized AI agents -- a Recommender Agent, an Evaluator Agent, and a Decision Agent -- each powered by Google's Gemini models. These agents address distinct facets of the HPO problem, from model selection and hyperparameter suggestion to robust evaluation and strategic decision-making. By fostering dynamic interactions and knowledge sharing, OptiMindTune aims to converge to optimal hyperparameter configurations more rapidly and robustly than existing single-agent or monolithic approaches. Our framework integrates principles from advanced large language models, and adaptive search to achieve scalable and intelligent AutoML. We posit that this multi-agent paradigm offers a promising avenue for tackling the increasing complexity of modern machine learning model tuning.
The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has opened new avenues in education. This study examines the use of LLMs in supporting learning in machine learning education; in particular, it focuses on the ability of LLMs to identify common errors of practice (pitfalls) in machine learning code, and their ability to provide feedback that can guide learning. Using a portfolio of code samples, we consider four different LLMs: one closed model and three open models. Whilst the most basic pitfalls are readily identified by all models, many common pitfalls are not. They particularly struggle to identify pitfalls in the early stages of the ML pipeline, especially those which can lead to information leaks, a major source of failure within applied ML projects. They also exhibit limited success at identifying pitfalls around model selection, which is a concept that students often struggle with when first transitioning from theory to practice. This questions the use of current LLMs to support machine learning education, and also raises important questions about their use by novice practitioners. Nevertheless, when LLMs successfully identify pitfalls in code, they do provide feedback that includes advice on how to proceed, emphasising their potential role in guiding learners. We also compare the capability of closed and open LLM models, and find that the gap is relatively small given the large difference in model sizes. This presents an opportunity to deploy, and potentially customise, smaller more efficient LLM models within education, avoiding risks around cost and data sharing associated with commercial models.
Effective disaster management requires timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information. Existing Information Retrieval (IR) benchmarks, however, focus primarily on general or specialized domains, such as medicine or finance, neglecting the unique linguistic complexity and diverse information needs encountered in disaster management scenarios. To bridge this gap, we introduce DisastIR, the first comprehensive IR evaluation benchmark specifically tailored for disaster management. DisastIR comprises 9,600 diverse user queries and more than 1.3 million labeled query-passage pairs, covering 48 distinct retrieval tasks derived from six search intents and eight general disaster categories that include 301 specific event types. Our evaluations of 30 state-of-the-art retrieval models demonstrate significant performance variances across tasks, with no single model excelling universally. Furthermore, comparative analyses reveal significant performance gaps between general-domain and disaster management-specific tasks, highlighting the necessity of disaster management-specific benchmarks for guiding IR model selection to support effective decision-making in disaster management scenarios. All source codes and DisastIR are available at https://github.com/KaiYin97/Disaster_IR.
Graph-structured data is a type of data to be obtained associated with a graph structure where vertices and edges describe some kind of data correlation. This paper proposes a regression method on graph-structured data, which is based on multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP), to capture both the correlation between vertices and the correlation between associated data. The proposed formulation is built on the definition of MOGP. This allows it to be applied to a wide range of data configurations and scenarios. Moreover, it has high expressive capability due to its flexibility in kernel design. It includes existing methods of Gaussian processes for graph-structured data as special cases and is possible to remove restrictions on data configurations, model selection, and inference scenarios in the existing methods. The performance of extensions achievable by the proposed formulation is evaluated through computer experiments with synthetic and real data.