Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial for various economic activities, including energy trading, risk management, and investment planning. Although deep learning models have emerged as powerful tools for crude oil price forecasting, achieving accurate forecasts remains challenging. Deep learning models' performance is heavily influenced by hyperparameters tuning, and they are expected to perform differently under various circumstances. Furthermore, price volatility is also sensitive to external factors such as world events. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that integrates metaheuristic optimization with an ensemble of five widely used neural network architectures for time series forecasting. Unlike existing methods that apply metaheuristics to optimise hyperparameters within the neural network architecture, we exploit the GWO metaheuristic optimiser at four levels: feature selection, data preparation, model training, and forecast blending. The proposed approach has been evaluated for forecasting three-ahead days using real-world Brent crude oil price data, and the obtained results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves the forecasting performance measured using various benchmarks, achieving 0.000127 of MSE.
Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4 have demonstrated their ability to understand natural language and generate complex code snippets. This paper introduces a novel Large Language Model Evolutionary Algorithm (LLaMEA) framework, leveraging GPT models for the automated generation and refinement of algorithms. Given a set of criteria and a task definition (the search space), LLaMEA iteratively generates, mutates and selects algorithms based on performance metrics and feedback from runtime evaluations. This framework offers a unique approach to generating optimized algorithms without requiring extensive prior expertise. We show how this framework can be used to generate novel black-box metaheuristic optimization algorithms automatically. LLaMEA generates multiple algorithms that outperform state-of-the-art optimization algorithms (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy and Differential Evolution) on the five dimensional black box optimization benchmark (BBOB). The algorithms also show competitive performance on the 10- and 20-dimensional instances of the test functions, although they have not seen such instances during the automated generation process. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the framework and identify future directions for automated generation and optimization of algorithms via LLMs.
Efficient parameter identification of electrochemical models is crucial for accurate monitoring and control of lithium-ion cells. This process becomes challenging when applied to complex models that rely on a considerable number of interdependent parameters that affect the output response. Gradient-based and metaheuristic optimization techniques, although previously employed for this task, are limited by their lack of robustness, high computational costs, and susceptibility to local minima. In this study, Bayesian Optimization is used for tuning the dynamic parameters of an electrochemical equivalent circuit battery model (E-ECM) for a nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC)-graphite cell. The performance of the Bayesian Optimization is compared with baseline methods based on gradient-based and metaheuristic approaches. The robustness of the parameter optimization method is tested by performing verification using an experimental drive cycle. The results indicate that Bayesian Optimization outperforms Gradient Descent and PSO optimization techniques, achieving reductions on average testing loss by 28.8% and 5.8%, respectively. Moreover, Bayesian optimization significantly reduces the variance in testing loss by 95.8% and 72.7%, respectively.
Although metaheuristics have been widely recognized as efficient techniques to solve real-world optimization problems, implementing them from scratch remains difficult for domain-specific experts without programming skills. In this scenario, metaheuristic optimization frameworks are a practical alternative as they provide a variety of algorithms composed of customized elements, as well as experimental support. Recently, many engineering problems require to optimize multiple or even many objectives, increasing the interest in appropriate metaheuristic algorithms and frameworks that might integrate new specific requirements while maintaining the generality and reusability principles they were conceived for. Based on this idea, this paper introduces JCLEC-MO, a Java framework for both multi- and many-objective optimization that enables engineers to apply, or adapt, a great number of multi-objective algorithms with little coding effort. A case study is developed and explained to show how JCLEC-MO can be used to address many-objective engineering problems, often requiring the inclusion of domain-specific elements, and to analyze experimental outcomes by means of conveniently connected R utilities.
Experimentation is an intrinsic part of research in artificial intelligence since it allows for collecting quantitative observations, validating hypotheses, and providing evidence for their reformulation. For that reason, experimentation must be coherent with the purposes of the research, properly addressing the relevant questions in each case. Unfortunately, the literature is full of works whose experimentation is neither rigorous nor convincing, oftentimes designed to support prior beliefs rather than answering the relevant research questions. In this paper, we focus on the field of metaheuristic optimization, since it is our main field of work, and it is where we have observed the misconduct that has motivated this letter. Even if we limit the focus of this manuscript to the experimental part of the research, our main goal is to sew the seed of sincere critical assessment of our work, sparking a reflection process both at the individual and the community level. Such a reflection process is too complex and extensive to be tackled as a whole. Therefore, to bring our feet to the ground, we will include in this document our reflections about the role of experimentation in our work, discussing topics such as the use of benchmark instances vs instance generators, or the statistical assessment of empirical results. That is, all the statements included in this document are personal views and opinions, which can be shared by others or not. Certainly, having different points of view is the basis to establish a good discussion process.
In the article, within the framework of the Boolean Satisfiability problem (SAT), the problem of estimating the hardness of specific Boolean formulas w.r.t. a specific complete SAT solving algorithm is considered. Based on the well-known Strong Backdoor Set (SBS) concept, we introduce the notion of decomposition hardness (d-hardness). If $B$ is an arbitrary subset of the set of variables occurring in a SAT formula $C$, and $A$ is an arbitrary complete SAT solver , then the d-hardness expresses an estimate of the hardness of $C$ w.r.t. $A$ and $B$. We show that the d-hardness of $C$ w.r.t. a particular $B$ can be expressed in terms of the expected value of a special random variable associated with $A$, $B$, and $C$. For its computational evaluation, algorithms based on the Monte Carlo method can be used. The problem of finding $B$ with the minimum value of d-hardness is formulated as an optimization problem for a pseudo-Boolean function whose values are calculated as a result of a probabilistic experiment. To minimize this function, we use evolutionary algorithms. In the experimental part, we demonstrate the applicability of the concept of d-hardness and the methods of its estimation to solving hard unsatisfiable SAT instances.
Sustainable development has emerged as a global priority, and industries are increasingly striving to align their operations with sustainable practices. Parallel machine scheduling (PMS) is a critical aspect of production planning that directly impacts resource utilization and operational efficiency. In this paper, we investigate the application of metaheuristic optimization algorithms to address the unrelated parallel machine scheduling problem (UPMSP) through the lens of sustainable development goals (SDGs). The primary objective of this study is to explore how metaheuristic optimization algorithms can contribute to achieving sustainable development goals in the context of UPMSP. We examine a range of metaheuristic algorithms, including genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, ant colony optimization, and more, and assess their effectiveness in optimizing the scheduling problem. The algorithms are evaluated based on their ability to improve resource utilization, minimize energy consumption, reduce environmental impact, and promote socially responsible production practices. To conduct a comprehensive analysis, we consider UPMSP instances that incorporate sustainability-related constraints and objectives.
Our work aims to estimate the camera motion mounted on the head of a mobile robot or a moving object from RGB-D images in a static scene. The problem of motion estimation is transformed into a nonlinear least squares function. Methods for solving such problems are iterative. Various classic methods gave an iterative solution by linearizing this function. We can also use the metaheuristic optimization method to solve this problem and improve results. In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for visual odometry using a sequence of RGB-D images. This algorithm is based on a genetic algorithm. The proposed iterative genetic algorithm searches using particles to estimate the optimal motion and then compares it to the traditional methods. To evaluate our method, we use the root mean square error to compare it with the based energy method and another metaheuristic method. We prove the efficiency of our innovative algorithm on a large set of images.
Weather forecasting plays a vital role in numerous sectors, but accurately capturing the complex dynamics of weather systems remains a challenge for traditional statistical models. Apart from Auto Regressive time forecasting models like ARIMA, deep learning techniques (Vanilla ANNs, LSTM and GRU networks), have shown promise in improving forecasting accuracy by capturing temporal dependencies. This paper explores the application of metaheuristic algorithms, namely Genetic Algorithm (GA), Differential Evolution (DE), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), to automate the search for optimal hyperparameters in these model architectures. Metaheuristic algorithms excel in global optimization, offering robustness, versatility, and scalability in handling non-linear problems. We present a comparative analysis of different model architectures integrated with metaheuristic optimization, evaluating their performance in weather forecasting based on metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate the potential of metaheuristic algorithms in enhancing weather forecasting accuracy \& helps in determining the optimal set of hyper-parameters for each model. The paper underscores the importance of harnessing advanced optimization techniques to select the most suitable metaheuristic algorithm for the given weather forecasting task.
Differential privacy (DP), as a promising privacy-preserving model, has attracted great interest from researchers in recent years. Currently, the study on combination of machine learning and DP is vibrant. In contrast, another widely used artificial intelligence technique, the swarm intelligence (SI) algorithm, has received little attention in the context of DP even though it also triggers privacy concerns. For this reason, this paper attempts to combine DP and SI for the first time, and proposes a general differentially private swarm intelligence algorithm framework (DPSIAF). Based on the exponential mechanism, this framework can easily develop existing SI algorithms into the private versions. As examples, we apply the proposed DPSIAF to four popular SI algorithms, and corresponding analyses demonstrate its effectiveness. More interestingly, the experimental results show that, for our private algorithms, their performance is not strictly affected by the privacy budget, and one of the private algorithms even owns better performance than its non-private version in some cases. These findings are different from the conventional cognition, which indicates the uniqueness of SI with DP. Our study may provide a new perspective on DP, and promote the synergy between metaheuristic optimization community and privacy computing community.
Deep learning is a machine learning approach that produces excellent performance in various applications, including natural language processing, image identification, and forecasting. Deep learning network performance depends on the hyperparameter settings. This research attempts to optimize the deep learning architecture of Long short term memory (LSTM), Convolutional neural network (CNN), and Multilayer perceptron (MLP) for forecasting tasks using Particle swarm optimization (PSO), a swarm intelligence-based metaheuristic optimization methodology: Proposed M-1 (PSO-LSTM), M-2 (PSO-CNN), and M-3 (PSO-MLP). Beijing PM2.5 datasets was analyzed to measure the performance of the proposed models. PM2.5 as a target variable was affected by dew point, pressure, temperature, cumulated wind speed, hours of snow, and hours of rain. The deep learning network inputs consist of three different scenarios: daily, weekly, and monthly. The results show that the proposed M-1 with three hidden layers produces the best results of RMSE and MAPE compared to the proposed M-2, M-3, and all the baselines. A recommendation for air pollution management could be generated by using these optimized models
Rutting of asphalt pavements is a crucial design criterion in various pavement design guides. A good road transportation base can provide security for the transportation of oil and gas in road transportation. This study attempts to develop a robust artificial intelligence model to estimate different asphalt pavements' rutting depth clips, temperature, and load axes as primary characteristics. The experiment data were obtained from 19 asphalt pavements with different crude oil sources on a 2.038 km long full-scale field accelerated pavement test track (RIOHTrack, Road Track Institute) in Tongzhou, Beijing. In addition, this paper also proposes to build complex networks with different pavement rutting depths through complex network methods and the Louvain algorithm for community detection. The most critical structural elements can be selected from different asphalt pavement rutting data, and similar structural elements can be found. An extreme learning machine algorithm with residual correction (RELM) is designed and optimized using an independent adaptive particle swarm algorithm. The experimental results of the proposed method are compared with several classical machine learning algorithms, with predictions of Average Root Mean Squared Error, Average Mean Absolute Error, and Average Mean Absolute Percentage Error for 19 asphalt pavements reaching 1.742, 1.363, and 1.94\% respectively. The experiments demonstrate that the RELM algorithm has an advantage over classical machine learning methods in dealing with non-linear problems in road engineering. Notably, the method ensures the adaptation of the simulated environment to different levels of abstraction through the cognitive analysis of the production environment parameters.
Metaheuristics are prominent gradient-free optimizers for solving hard problems that do not meet the rigorous mathematical assumptions of analytical solvers. The canonical manual optimizer design could be laborious, untraceable and error-prone, let alone human experts are not always available. This arises increasing interest and demand in automating the optimizer design process. In response, this paper proposes AutoOptLib, the first platform for accessible automated design of metaheuristic optimizers. AutoOptLib leverages computing resources to conceive, build up, and verify the design choices of the optimizers. It requires much less labor resources and expertise than manual design, democratizing satisfactory metaheuristic optimizers to a much broader range of researchers and practitioners. Furthermore, by fully exploring the design choices with computing resources, AutoOptLib has the potential to surpass human experience, subsequently gaining enhanced performance compared with human problem-solving. To realize the automated design, AutoOptLib provides 1) a rich library of metaheuristic components for continuous, discrete, and permutation problems; 2) a flexible algorithm representation for evolving diverse algorithm structures; 3) different design objectives and techniques for different optimization scenarios; and 4) a graphic user interface for accessibility and practicability. AutoOptLib is fully written in Matlab/Octave; its source code and documentation are available at https://github.com/qz89/AutoOpt and https://AutoOpt.readthedocs.io/, respectively.
Dispatching vehicle fleets to serve flights is a key task in airport ground handling (AGH). Due to the notable growth of flights, it is challenging to simultaneously schedule multiple types of operations (services) for a large number of flights, where each type of operation is performed by one specific vehicle fleet. To tackle this issue, we first represent the operation scheduling as a complex vehicle routing problem and formulate it as a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model. Then given the graph representation of the MILP model, we propose a learning assisted large neighborhood search (LNS) method using data generated based on real scenarios, where we integrate imitation learning and graph convolutional network (GCN) to learn a destroy operator to automatically select variables, and employ an off-the-shelf solver as the repair operator to reoptimize the selected variables. Experimental results based on a real airport show that the proposed method allows for handling up to 200 flights with 10 types of operations simultaneously, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the learned method performs consistently accompanying different solvers, and generalizes well on larger instances, verifying the versatility and scalability of our method.
Patient triage at emergency departments (EDs) is necessary to prioritize care for patients with critical and time-sensitive conditions. Different tools are used for patient triage and one of the most common ones is the emergency severity index (ESI), which has a scale of five levels, where level 1 is the most urgent and level 5 is the least urgent. This paper proposes a framework for utilizing machine learning to develop an e-triage tool that can be used at EDs. A large retrospective dataset of ED patient visits is obtained from the electronic health record of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US for three years. However, the main challenge of using machine learning algorithms is that most of them have many parameters and without optimizing these parameters, developing a high-performance model is not possible. This paper proposes an approach to optimize the hyperparameters of machine learning. The metaheuristic optimization algorithms simulated annealing (SA) and adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) are proposed to optimize the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and categorical boosting (CaB). The newly proposed algorithms are SA-XGB, ASA-XGB, SA-CaB, ASA-CaB. Grid search (GS), which is a traditional approach used for machine learning fine-tunning is also used to fine-tune the parameters of XGB and CaB, which are named GS-XGB and GS-CaB. The six algorithms are trained and tested using eight data groups obtained from the feature selection phase. The results show ASA-CaB outperformed all the proposed algorithms with accuracy, precision, recall, and f1 of 83.3%, 83.2%, 83.3%, 83.2%, respectively.
The issue of left before treatment complete (LBTC) patients is common in emergency departments (EDs). This issue represents a medico-legal risk and may cause a revenue loss. Thus, understanding the factors that cause patients to leave before treatment is complete is vital to mitigate and potentially eliminate these adverse effects. This paper proposes a framework for studying the factors that affect LBTC outcomes in EDs. The framework integrates machine learning, metaheuristic optimization, and model interpretation techniques. Metaheuristic optimization is used for hyperparameter optimization--one of the main challenges of machine learning model development. Three metaheuristic optimization algorithms are employed for optimizing the parameters of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), which are simulated annealing (SA), adaptive simulated annealing (ASA), and adaptive tabu simulated annealing (ATSA). The optimized XGB models are used to predict the LBTC outcomes for the patients under treatment in ED. The designed algorithms are trained and tested using four data groups resulting from the feature selection phase. The model with the best predictive performance is interpreted using SHaply Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method. The findings show that ATSA-XGB outperformed other mode configurations with an accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score of 86.61%, 87.50%, 85.71%, 87.51%, and 86.60%, respectively. The degree and the direction of effects of each feature were determined and explained using the SHAP method.
The traditional Neural Network-development process requires substantial expert knowledge and relies heavily on intuition and trial-and-error. Neural Architecture Search (NAS) frameworks were introduced to robustly search for network topologies, as well as facilitate the automated development of Neural Networks. While some optimization approaches -- such as Genetic Algorithms -- have been extensively explored in the NAS context, other Metaheuristic Optimization algorithms have not yet been investigated. In this study, we evaluate the viability of Artificial Bee Colony optimization for Neural Architecture Search. Our proposed framework, HiveNAS, outperforms existing state-of-the-art Swarm Intelligence-based NAS frameworks in a fraction of the time.
Multi-objective feature selection is one of the most significant issues in the field of pattern recognition. It is challenging because it maximizes the classification performance and, at the same time, minimizes the number of selected features, and the mentioned two objectives are usually conflicting. To achieve a better Pareto optimal solution, metaheuristic optimization methods are widely used in many studies. However, the main drawback is the exploration of a large search space. Another problem with multi-objective feature selection approaches is the interaction between features. Selecting correlated features has negative effect on classification performance. To tackle these problems, we present a novel multi-objective feature selection method that has several advantages. Firstly, it considers the interaction between features using an advanced probability scheme. Secondly, it is based on the Pareto Archived Evolution Strategy (PAES) method that has several advantages such as simplicity and its speed in exploring the solution space. However, we improve the structure of PAES in such a way that generates the offsprings, intelligently. Thus, the proposed method utilizes the introduced probability scheme to produce more promising offsprings. Finally, it is equipped with a novel strategy that guides it to find the optimum number of features through the process of evolution. The experimental results show a significant improvement in finding the optimal Pareto front compared to state-of-the-art methods on different real-world datasets.
This paper proposes a novel load frequency control (LFC) approach formulated on an optimal structure of the coefficient diagram method (CDM) in a two-area thermal power system. As part of a realistic analysis, nonlinearities related to governor dead band (GDB) and generation rate constraint (GRC) have been considered. In this article, a hybrid CDM method is combined with the optimization of its mathematical equations to achieve an innovative controller. Furthermore, a new metaheuristic optimization technique called the water cycle algorithm (WCA) is used to determine the optimal coefficients of the CDM controller. For the purpose of demonstrating the validity of the proposed scheme, a wide range of uncertainties in the dynamic parameters of a nonlinear power system were tested. In addition, a comparative study is presented between the results obtained from a classical integral, CDM alone, optimized Fuzzy, optimized PID, and the suggested controller. In this new approach to improved control, algebraic support provides a robust and responsive controller that can provide fast and stable dynamic responses and effectively overcome the detrimental effects of nonlinearities and uncertainties in the parameters of the power system.
Metaheuristics are widely recognized gradient-free solvers to hard problems that do not meet the rigorous mathematical assumptions of conventional solvers. The automated design of metaheuristic algorithms provides an attractive path to relieve manual design effort and gain enhanced performance beyond human-made algorithms. However, the specific algorithm prototype and linear algorithm representation in the current automated design pipeline restrict the design within a fixed algorithm structure, which hinders discovering novelties and diversity across the metaheuristic family. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a general framework, AutoOpt, for automatically designing metaheuristic algorithms with diverse structures. AutoOpt contains three innovations: (i) A general algorithm prototype dedicated to covering the metaheuristic family as widely as possible. It promotes high-quality automated design on different problems by fully discovering potentials and novelties across the family. (ii) A directed acyclic graph algorithm representation to fit the proposed prototype. Its flexibility and evolvability enable discovering various algorithm structures in a single run of design, thus boosting the possibility of finding high-performance algorithms. (iii) A graph representation embedding method offering an alternative compact form of the graph to be manipulated, which ensures AutoOpt's generality. Experiments on numeral functions and real applications validate AutoOpt's efficiency and practicability.