Weak-identification-robust Anderson-Rubin (AR) tests for instrumental variable (IV) regressions are typically developed separately depending on whether the number of IVs is treated as fixed or increasing with the sample size. These tests rely on distinct test statistics and critical values. To apply them, researchers are forced to take a stance on the asymptotic behavior of the number of IVs, which can be ambiguous when the number is moderate. In this paper, we propose a bootstrap-based, dimension-agnostic AR test. By deriving strong approximations for the test statistic and its bootstrap counterpart, we show that our new test has a correct asymptotic size regardless of whether the number of IVs is fixed or increasing -- allowing, but not requiring, the number of IVs to exceed the sample size. We also analyze the power properties of the proposed uniformly valid test under both fixed and increasing numbers of IVs.
The performance of medical research can be viewed and evaluated not only from the perspective of publication output, but also from the perspective of economic exploitability. Patents can represent the exploitation of research results and thus the transfer of knowledge from research to industry. In this study, we set out to identify publication-patent pairs in order to use patents as a proxy for the economic impact of research. To identify these pairs, we matched scholarly publications and patents by comparing the names of authors and investors. To resolve the ambiguities that arise in this name-matching process, we expanded our approach with two additional filter features, one used to assess the similarity of text content, the other to identify common references in the two document types. To evaluate text similarity, we extracted and transformed technical terms from a medical ontology (MeSH) into numerical vectors using word embeddings. We then calculated the results of the two supporting features over an example five-year period. Furthermore, we developed a statistical procedure which can be used to determine valid patent classes for the domain of medicine. Our complete data processing pipeline is freely available, from the raw data of the two document types right through to the validated publication-patent pairs.
Prefix circuits are fundamental components in digital adders, widely used in digital systems due to their efficiency in calculating carry signals. Synthesizing prefix circuits with minimized area and delay is crucial for enhancing the performance of modern computing systems. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated a surprising ability to perform text generation tasks. We propose PrefixLLM, that leverages LLMs for prefix circuit synthesis. PrefixLLM transforms the prefix circuit synthesis task into a structured text generation problem, termed the Structured Prefix Circuit Representation (SPCR), and introduces an iterative framework to automatically and accurately generate valid SPCRs. We further present a design space exploration (DSE) framework that uses LLMs to iteratively search for area and delay optimized prefix circuits. Compared to state-of-the-art, PrefixLLM can reduce the area by 3.70% under the same delay constraint. This work highlights the use of LLMs in the synthesis of arithmetic circuits, which can be transformed into the structured text generation.
An algorithm for planning near time-optimal trajectories for systems with an oscillatory internal dynamics has been developed in previous work. It is based on assembling a complete trajectory from motion primitives called jerk segments, which are the time-optimal solution to an optimization problem. To achieve the shortest overall transition time, it is advantageous to recompute these segments for different acceleration levels within the motion planning procedure. This publication presents a numerical calculation method enabling fast and reliable calculation. This is achieved by explicitly evaluating the optimality conditions that arise for the problem, and further by reducing the evaluation of these conditions to a line-search problem on a bounded interval. This reduction guarantees, that a valid solution if found after a fixed number of computational steps, making the calculation time constant and predictable. Furthermore, the algorithm does not rely on optimisation algorithms, which allowed its implementation on a laboratory system for measurements with the purpose of validating the approach.
Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in modern applications, such as Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI). In these settings, confidence sets may fail to maintain a confidence level close to the nominal value. In this paper, we introduce two novel methods, TRUST and TRUST++, for calibrating confidence sets to achieve distribution-free conditional coverage. These methods rely entirely on simulated data from the statistical model to perform calibration. Leveraging insights from conformal prediction techniques adapted to the statistical inference context, our methods ensure both finite-sample local coverage and asymptotic conditional coverage as the number of simulations increases, even if n is small. They effectively handle nuisance parameters and provide computationally efficient uncertainty quantification for the estimated confidence sets. This allows users to assess whether additional simulations are necessary for robust inference. Through theoretical analysis and experiments on models with both tractable and intractable likelihoods, we demonstrate that our methods outperform existing approaches, particularly in small-sample regimes. This work bridges the gap between conformal prediction and statistical inference, offering practical tools for constructing valid confidence sets in complex models.
This paper introduces the Density-Calibrated Conformal Quantile Regression (CQR-d) method, a novel approach for constructing prediction intervals that adapts to varying uncertainty across the feature space. Building upon conformal quantile regression, CQR-d incorporates local information through a weighted combination of local and global conformity scores, where the weights are determined by local data density. We prove that CQR-d provides valid marginal coverage at level $1 - \alpha - \epsilon$, where $\epsilon$ represents a small tolerance from numerical optimization. Through extensive simulation studies and an application to the a heteroscedastic dataset available in R, we demonstrate that CQR-d maintains the desired coverage while producing substantially narrower prediction intervals compared to standard conformal quantile regression (CQR). The method's effectiveness is particularly pronounced in settings with clear local uncertainty patterns, making it a valuable tool for prediction tasks in heterogeneous data environments.
Systems that answer questions by reviewing the scientific literature are becoming increasingly feasible. To draw reliable conclusions, these systems should take into account the quality of available evidence, placing more weight on studies that use a valid methodology. We present a benchmark for measuring the methodological strength of biomedical papers, drawing on the risk-of-bias framework used for systematic reviews. The four benchmark tasks, drawn from more than 500 papers, cover the analysis of research study methodology, followed by evaluation of risk of bias in these studies. The benchmark contains 2000 expert-generated bias annotations, and a human-validated pipeline for fine-grained alignment with research paper content. We evaluate a range of large language models on the benchmark, and find that these models fall significantly short of expert-level performance. By providing a standardized tool for measuring judgments of study quality, the benchmark can help to guide systems that perform large-scale aggregation of scientific data. The dataset is available at https://github.com/RoBBR-Benchmark/RoBBR.
Across science and policy, decision-makers often need to draw conclusions about the best candidate among competing alternatives. For instance, researchers may seek to infer the effectiveness of the most successful treatment or determine which demographic group benefits most from a specific treatment. Similarly, in machine learning, practitioners are often interested in the population performance of the model that performs best empirically. However, cherry-picking the best candidate leads to the winner's curse: the observed performance for the winner is biased upwards, rendering conclusions based on standard measures of uncertainty invalid. We introduce the zoom correction, a novel approach for valid inference on the winner. Our method is flexible: it can be employed in both parametric and nonparametric settings, can handle arbitrary dependencies between candidates, and automatically adapts to the level of selection bias. The method easily extends to important related problems, such as inference on the top k winners, inference on the value and identity of the population winner, and inference on "near-winners."
Model selection/optimization in conformal inference is challenging, since it may break the exchangeability between labeled and unlabeled data. We study this problem in the context of conformal selection, which uses conformal p-values to select ``interesting'' instances with large unobserved labels from a pool of unlabeled data, while controlling the FDR in finite sample. For validity, existing solutions require the model choice to be independent of the data used to construct the p-values and calibrate the selection set. However, when presented with many model choices and limited labeled data, it is desirable to (i) select the best model in a data-driven manner, and (ii) mitigate power loss due to sample splitting. This paper presents OptCS, a general framework that allows valid statistical testing (selection) after flexible data-driven model optimization. We introduce general conditions under which OptCS constructs valid conformal p-values despite substantial data reuse and handles complex p-value dependencies to maintain finite-sample FDR control via a novel multiple testing procedure. We instantiate this general recipe to propose three FDR-controlling procedures, each optimizing the models differently: (i) selecting the most powerful one among multiple pre-trained candidate models, (ii) using all data for model fitting without sample splitting, and (iii) combining full-sample model fitting and selection. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods via simulation studies and real applications in drug discovery and alignment of large language models in radiology report generation.
Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing methods for covariate selection often assume the absence of latent variables and rely on learning the global network structure among variables. However, identifying the global structure can be unnecessary and inefficient, especially when our primary interest lies in estimating the effect of a treatment variable on an outcome variable. To address this limitation, we propose a novel local learning approach for covariate selection in nonparametric causal effect estimation, which accounts for the presence of latent variables. Our approach leverages testable independence and dependence relationships among observed variables to identify a valid adjustment set for a target causal relationship, ensuring both soundness and completeness under standard assumptions. We validate the effectiveness of our algorithm through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world data.
Causal effect moderation investigates how the effect of interventions (or treatments) on outcome variables changes based on observed characteristics of individuals, known as potential effect moderators. With advances in data collection, datasets containing many observed features as potential moderators have become increasingly common. High-dimensional analyses often lack interpretability, with important moderators masked by noise, while low-dimensional, marginal analyses yield many false positives due to strong correlations with true moderators. In this paper, we propose a two-step method for selective inference on time-varying causal effect moderation that addresses the limitations of both high-dimensional and marginal analyses. Our method first selects a relatively smaller, more interpretable model to estimate a linear causal effect moderation using a Gaussian randomization approach. We then condition on the selection event to construct a pivot, enabling uniformly asymptotic semi-parametric inference in the selected model. Through simulations and real data analyses, we show that our method consistently achieves valid coverage rates, even when existing conditional methods and common sample splitting techniques fail. Moreover, our method yields shorter, bounded intervals, unlike existing methods that may produce infinitely long intervals.
Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have demonstrated outstanding performance in multimodal task reasoning. However, they often generate responses that appear plausible yet do not accurately reflect the visual content, a phenomenon known as hallucination. Recent approaches have introduced training-free methods that mitigate hallucinations by adjusting the decoding strategy during inference stage, typically attributing hallucination to the language model itself. Our analysis, however, reveals that distortions in the visual encoding process significantly affect the model's reasoning accuracy. Specifically, earlier visual layers may retain key features but gradually distort as the information propagates toward the output layer. Building on these findings, we propose a novel hallucination-mitigation method from the visual encoding perspective: \textbf{V}isu\textbf{a}l \textbf{L}ayer Fus\textbf{i}on Contrastive \textbf{D}ecoding (VaLiD). This method utilizes uncertainty to guide the selection of visual hidden layers, correcting distortions in the visual encoding process and thereby improving the reliability of generated text. Experimental results show that VaLiD effectively reduces hallucinations across various benchmarks, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to multiple baseline methods.
Existing methods to summarize posterior inference for mixture models focus on identifying a point estimate of the implied random partition for clustering, with density estimation as a secondary goal (Wade and Ghahramani, 2018; Dahl et al., 2022). We propose a novel approach for summarizing posterior inference in nonparametric Bayesian mixture models, prioritizing estimation of the mixing measure (or mixture) as an inference target. One of the key features is the model-agnostic nature of the approach, which remains valid under arbitrarily complex dependence structures in the underlying sampling model. Using a decision-theoretic framework, our method identifies a point estimate by minimizing posterior expected loss. A loss function is defined as a discrepancy between mixing measures. Estimating the mixing measure implies inference on the mixture density and the random partition. Exploiting the discrete nature of the mixing measure, we use a version of sliced Wasserstein distance. We introduce two specific variants for Gaussian mixtures. The first, mixed sliced Wasserstein, applies generalized geodesic projections on the product of the Euclidean space and the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. The second, sliced mixture Wasserstein, leverages the linearity of Gaussian mixture measures for efficient projection
We show how clustering standard errors in one or more dimensions can be justified in M-estimation when there is sampling or assignment uncertainty. Since existing procedures for variance estimation are either conservative or invalid, we propose a variance estimator that refines a conservative procedure and remains valid. We then interpret environments where clustering is frequently employed in empirical work from our design-based perspective and provide insights on their estimands and inference procedures.
Virtual Reality (VR) has been a beneficial training tool in fields such as advanced manufacturing. However, users may experience a high cognitive load due to various factors, such as the use of VR hardware or tasks within the VR environment. Studies have shown that eye-tracking has the potential to detect cognitive load, but in the context of VR and complex spatiotemporal tasks (e.g., assembly and disassembly), it remains relatively unexplored. Here, we present an ongoing study to detect users' cognitive load using an eye-tracking-based machine learning approach. We developed a VR training system for cold spray and tested it with 22 participants, obtaining 19 valid eye-tracking datasets and NASA-TLX scores. We applied Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Random Forest (RF) models to compare the accuracy of predicting cognitive load (i.e., NASA-TLX) using pupil dilation and fixation duration. Our preliminary analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using eye tracking to detect cognitive load in complex spatiotemporal VR experiences and motivates further exploration.
We address the issue of the testability of instrumental variables derived from observational data. Most existing testable implications are centered on scenarios where the treatment is a discrete variable, e.g., instrumental inequality (Pearl, 1995), or where the effect is assumed to be constant, e.g., instrumental variables condition based on the principle of independent mechanisms (Burauel, 2023). However, treatments can often be continuous variables, such as drug dosages or nutritional content levels, and non-constant effects may occur in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider an additive nonlinear, non-constant effects model with unmeasured confounders, in which treatments can be either discrete or continuous, and propose an Auxiliary-based Independence Test (AIT) condition to test whether a variable is a valid instrument. We first show that if the candidate instrument is valid, then the AIT condition holds. Moreover, we illustrate the implications of the AIT condition and demonstrate that, in certain conditions, AIT conditions are necessary and sufficient to detect all invalid IVs. We also extend the AIT condition to include covariates and introduce a practical testing algorithm. Experimental results on both synthetic and three different real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our proposed condition.
This study examines conversational business analytics, an approach that utilizes AI to address the technical competency gaps that hinder end users from effectively using traditional self-service analytics. By facilitating natural language interactions, conversational business analytics aims to empower end users to independently retrieve data and generate insights. The analysis focuses on Text-to-SQL as a representative technology for translating natural language requests into SQL statements. Developing theoretical models grounded in expected utility theory, this study identifies the conditions under which conversational business analytics, through partial or full support, can outperform delegation to human experts. The results indicate that partial support, focusing solely on information generation by AI, is viable when the accuracy of AI-generated SQL queries leads to a profit that surpasses the performance of a human expert. In contrast, full support includes not only information generation but also validation through explanations provided by the AI, and requires sufficiently high validation effectiveness to be reliable. However, user-based validation presents challenges, such as misjudgment and rejection of valid SQL queries, which may limit the effectiveness of conversational business analytics. These challenges underscore the need for robust validation mechanisms, including improved user support, automated processes, and methods for assessing quality independent of the technical competency of end users.
Quantitative automata are useful representations for numerous applications, including modeling probability distributions over sequences to Markov chains and reward machines. Actively learning such automata typically occurs using explicitly gathered input-output examples under adaptations of the L-star algorithm. However, obtaining explicit input-output pairs can be expensive, and there exist scenarios, including preference-based learning or learning from rankings, where providing constraints is a less exerting and a more natural way to concisely describe desired properties. Consequently, we propose the problem of learning deterministic quantitative automata from sets of constraints over the valuations of input sequences. We present QUINTIC, an active learning algorithm, wherein the learner infers a valid automaton through deductive reasoning, by applying a theory to a set of currently available constraints and an assumed preference model and quantitative automaton class. QUINTIC performs a complete search over the space of automata, and is guaranteed to be minimal and correctly terminate. Our evaluations utilize theory of rationals in order to learn summation, discounted summation, product, and classification quantitative automata, and indicate QUINTIC is effective at learning these types of automata.
Economists often estimate treatment effects in experiments using remotely sensed variables (RSVs), e.g. satellite images or mobile phone activity, in place of directly measured economic outcomes. A common practice is to use an observational sample to train a predictor of the economic outcome from the RSV, and then to use its predictions as the outcomes in the experiment. We show that this method is biased whenever the RSV is post-outcome, i.e. if variation in the economic outcome causes variation in the RSV. In program evaluation, changes in poverty or environmental quality cause changes in satellite images, but not vice versa. As our main result, we nonparametrically identify the treatment effect by formalizing the intuition that underlies common practice: the conditional distribution of the RSV given the outcome and treatment is stable across the samples.Based on our identifying formula, we find that the efficient representation of RSVs for causal inference requires three predictions rather than one. Valid inference does not require any rate conditions on RSV predictions, justifying the use of complex deep learning algorithms with unknown statistical properties. We re-analyze the effect of an anti-poverty program in India using satellite images.
Estimating three-dimensional conformations of a molecular graph allows insight into the molecule's biological and chemical functions. Fast generation of valid conformations is thus central to molecular modeling. Recent advances in graph-based deep networks have accelerated conformation generation from hours to seconds. However, current network architectures do not scale well to large molecules. Here we present ConfFlow, a flow-based model for conformation generation based on transformer networks. In contrast with existing approaches, ConfFlow directly samples in the coordinate space without enforcing any explicit physical constraints. The generative procedure is highly interpretable and is akin to force field updates in molecular dynamics simulation. When applied to the generation of large molecule conformations, ConfFlow improve accuracy by up to $40\%$ relative to state-of-the-art learning-based methods. The source code is made available at https://github.com/IntelLabs/ConfFlow.