The growing number of AI applications, also for high-stake decisions, increases the interest in Explainable and Interpretable Machine Learning (XI-ML). This trend can be seen both in the increasing number of regulations and strategies for developing trustworthy AI and the growing number of scientific papers dedicated to this topic. To ensure the sustainable development of AI, it is essential to understand the dynamics of the impact of regulation on research papers as well as the impact of scientific discourse on AI-related policies. This paper introduces a novel framework for joint analysis of AI-related policy documents and eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) research papers. The collected documents are enriched with metadata and interconnections, using various NLP methods combined with a methodology inspired by Institutional Grammar. Based on the information extracted from collected documents, we showcase a series of analyses that help understand interactions, similarities, and differences between documents at different stages of institutionalization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to use automatic language analysis tools to understand the dynamics between XI-ML methods and regulations. We believe that such a system contributes to better cooperation between XAI researchers and AI policymakers.
Disinformation through fake news is an ongoing problem in our society and has become easily spread through social media. The most cost and time effective way to filter these large amounts of data is to use a combination of human and technical interventions to identify it. From a technical perspective, Natural Language Processing (NLP) is widely used in detecting fake news. Social media companies use NLP techniques to identify the fake news and warn their users, but fake news may still slip through undetected. It is especially a problem in more localised contexts (outside the United States of America). How do we adjust fake news detection systems to work better for local contexts such as in South Africa. In this work we investigate fake news detection on South African websites. We curate a dataset of South African fake news and then train detection models. We contrast this with using widely available fake news datasets (from mostly USA website). We also explore making the datasets more diverse by combining them and observe the differences in behaviour in writing between nations' fake news using interpretable machine learning.
Autonomous vehicles must balance a complex set of objectives. There is no consensus on how they should do so, nor on a model for specifying a desired driving behavior. We created a dataset to help address some of these questions in a limited operating domain. The data consists of 92 traffic scenarios, with multiple ways of traversing each scenario. Multiple annotators expressed their preference between pairs of scenario traversals. We used the data to compare an instance of a rulebook, carefully hand-crafted independently of the dataset, with several interpretable machine learning models such as Bayesian networks, decision trees, and logistic regression trained on the dataset. To compare driving behavior, these models use scores indicating by how much different scenario traversals violate each of 14 driving rules. The rules are interpretable and designed by subject-matter experts. First, we found that these rules were enough for these models to achieve a high classification accuracy on the dataset. Second, we found that the rulebook provides high interpretability without excessively sacrificing performance. Third, the data pointed to possible improvements in the rulebook and the rules, and to potential new rules. Fourth, we explored the interpretability vs performance trade-off by also training non-interpretable models such as a random forest. Finally, we make the dataset publicly available to encourage a discussion from the wider community on behavior specification for AVs. Please find it at github.com/bassam-motional/Reasonable-Crowd.
Assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with cine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been used to non-invasively evaluate detailed cardiac structure and function. Accurate segmentation of cardiac structures from cine MRI is a crucial step for early diagnosis and prognosis of CVD, and has been greatly improved with convolutional neural networks (CNN). There, however, are a number of limitations identified in CNN models, such as limited interpretability and high complexity, thus limiting their use in clinical practice. In this work, to address the limitations, we propose a lightweight and interpretable machine learning model, successive subspace learning with the subspace approximation with adjusted bias (Saab) transform, for accurate and efficient segmentation from cine MRI. Specifically, our segmentation framework is comprised of the following steps: (1) sequential expansion of near-to-far neighborhood at different resolutions; (2) channel-wise subspace approximation using the Saab transform for unsupervised dimension reduction; (3) class-wise entropy guided feature selection for supervised dimension reduction; (4) concatenation of features and pixel-wise classification with gradient boost; and (5) conditional random field for post-processing. Experimental results on the ACDC 2017 segmentation database, showed that our framework performed better than state-of-the-art U-Net models with 200$\times$ fewer parameters in delineating the left ventricle, right ventricle, and myocardium, thus showing its potential to be used in clinical practice.
Modern data analytics underpinned by machine learning techniques has become a key enabler to the automation of data-led decision making. As an important branch of state-of-the-art data analytics, business process predictions are also faced with a challenge in regard to the lack of explanation to the reasoning and decision by the underlying `black-box' prediction models. With the development of interpretable machine learning techniques, explanations can be generated for a black-box model, making it possible for (human) users to access the reasoning behind machine learned predictions. In this paper, we aim to present an approach that allows us to use model explanations to investigate certain reasoning applied by machine learned predictions and detect potential issues with the underlying methods thus enhancing trust in business process prediction models. A novel contribution of our approach is the proposal of model inspection that leverages both the explanations generated by interpretable machine learning mechanisms and the contextual or domain knowledge extracted from event logs that record historical process execution. Findings drawn from this work are expected to serve as a key input to developing model reliability metrics and evaluation in the context of business process predictions.
Background: Medical decision-making impacts both individual and public health. Clinical scores are commonly used among a wide variety of decision-making models for determining the degree of disease deterioration at the bedside. AutoScore was proposed as a useful clinical score generator based on machine learning and a generalized linear model. Its current framework, however, still leaves room for improvement when addressing unbalanced data of rare events. Methods: Using machine intelligence approaches, we developed AutoScore-Imbalance, which comprises three components: training dataset optimization, sample weight optimization, and adjusted AutoScore. All scoring models were evaluated on the basis of their area under the curve (AUC) in the receiver operating characteristic analysis and balanced accuracy (i.e., mean value of sensitivity and specificity). By utilizing a publicly accessible dataset from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, we assessed the proposed model and baseline approaches in the prediction of inpatient mortality. Results: AutoScore-Imbalance outperformed baselines in terms of AUC and balanced accuracy. The nine-variable AutoScore-Imbalance sub-model achieved the highest AUC of 0.786 (0.732-0.839) while the eleven-variable original AutoScore obtained an AUC of 0.723 (0.663-0.783), and the logistic regression with 21 variables obtained an AUC of 0.743 (0.685-0.800). The AutoScore-Imbalance sub-model (using down-sampling algorithm) yielded an AUC of 0. 0.771 (0.718-0.823) with only five variables, demonstrating a good balance between performance and variable sparsity. Conclusions: The AutoScore-Imbalance tool has the potential to be applied to highly unbalanced datasets to gain further insight into rare medical events and to facilitate real-world clinical decision-making.
Machine learning algorithms often produce models considered as complex black-box models by both end users and developers. They fail to explain the model in terms of the domain they are designed for. The proposed Iterative Visual Logical Classifier (IVLC) is an interpretable machine learning algorithm that allows end users to design a model and classify data with more confidence and without having to compromise on the accuracy. Such technique is especially helpful when dealing with sensitive and crucial data like cancer data in the medical domain with high cost of errors. With the help of the proposed interactive and lossless multidimensional visualization, end users can identify the pattern in the data based on which they can make explainable decisions. Such options would not be possible in black box machine learning methodologies. The interpretable IVLC algorithm is supported by the Interactive Shifted Paired Coordinates Software System (SPCVis). It is a lossless multidimensional data visualization system with user interactive features. The interactive approach provides flexibility to the end user to perform data classification as self-service without having to rely on a machine learning expert. Interactive pattern discovery becomes challenging while dealing with large data sets with hundreds of dimensions/features. To overcome this problem, this chapter proposes an automated classification approach combined with new Coordinate Order Optimizer (COO) algorithm and a Genetic algorithm. The COO algorithm automatically generates the coordinate pair sequences that best represent the data separation and the genetic algorithm helps optimizing the proposed IVLC algorithm by automatically generating the areas for data classification. The feasibility of the approach is shown by experiments on benchmark datasets covering both interactive and automated processes used for data classification.
Over the last few years there has been rapid research growth into eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) and the closely aligned Interpretable Machine Learning (IML). Drivers for this growth include recent legislative changes and increased investments by industry and governments, along with increased concern from the general public. People are affected by autonomous decisions every day and the public need to understand the decision-making process to accept the outcomes. However, the vast majority of the applications of XAI/IML are focused on providing low-level `narrow' explanations of how an individual decision was reached based on a particular datum. While important, these explanations rarely provide insights into an agent's: beliefs and motivations; hypotheses of other (human, animal or AI) agents' intentions; interpretation of external cultural expectations; or, processes used to generate its own explanation. Yet all of these factors, we propose, are essential to providing the explanatory depth that people require to accept and trust the AI's decision-making. This paper aims to define levels of explanation and describe how they can be integrated to create a human-aligned conversational explanation system. In so doing, this paper will survey current approaches and discuss the integration of different technologies to achieve these levels with Broad eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (Broad-XAI), and thereby move towards high-level `strong' explanations.
Though deep learning has shown successful performance in classifying the label and severity stage of certain diseases, most of them give few explanations on how to make predictions. Inspired by Koch's Postulates, the foundation in evidence-based medicine (EBM) to identify the pathogen, we propose to exploit the interpretability of deep learning application in medical diagnosis. By determining and isolating the neuron activation patterns on which diabetic retinopathy (DR) detector relies to make decisions, we demonstrate the direct relation between the isolated neuron activation and lesions for a pathological explanation. To be specific, we first define novel pathological descriptors using activated neurons of the DR detector to encode both spatial and appearance information of lesions. Then, to visualize the symptom encoded in the descriptor, we propose Patho-GAN, a new network to synthesize medically plausible retinal images. By manipulating these descriptors, we could even arbitrarily control the position, quantity, and categories of generated lesions. We also show that our synthesized images carry the symptoms directly related to diabetic retinopathy diagnosis. Our generated images are both qualitatively and quantitatively superior to the ones by previous methods. Besides, compared to existing methods that take hours to generate an image, our second level speed endows the potential to be an effective solution for data augmentation.
Gradual argumentation frameworks represent arguments and their relationships in a weighted graph. Their graphical structure and intuitive semantics makes them a potentially interesting tool for interpretable machine learning. It has been noted recently that their mechanics are closely related to neural networks, which allows learning their weights from data by standard deep learning frameworks. As a first proof of concept, we propose a genetic algorithm to simultaneously learn the structure of argumentative classification models. To obtain a well interpretable model, the fitness function balances sparseness and accuracy of the classifier. We discuss our algorithm and present first experimental results on standard benchmarks from the UCI machine learning repository. Our prototype learns argumentative classification models that are comparable to decision trees in terms of learning performance and interpretability.
Prediction of survival in patients diagnosed with a brain tumour is challenging because of heterogeneous tumour behaviours and responses to treatment. Better estimations of prognosis would support treatment planning and patient support. Advances in machine learning have informed development of clinical predictive models, but their integration into clinical practice is almost non-existent. One reasons for this is the lack of interpretability of models. In this paper, we use a novel brain tumour dataset to compare two interpretable rule list models against popular machine learning approaches for brain tumour survival prediction. All models are quantitatively evaluated using standard performance metrics. The rule lists are also qualitatively assessed for their interpretability and clinical utility. The interpretability of the black box machine learning models is evaluated using two post-hoc explanation techniques, LIME and SHAP. Our results show that the rule lists were only slightly outperformed by the black box models. We demonstrate that rule list algorithms produced simple decision lists that align with clinical expertise. By comparison, post-hoc interpretability methods applied to black box models may produce unreliable explanations of local model predictions. Model interpretability is essential for understanding differences in predictive performance and for integration into clinical practice.
Although modern machine learning and deep learning methods allow for complex and in-depth data analytics, the predictive models generated by these methods are often highly complex, and lack transparency. Explainable AI (XAI) methods are used to improve the interpretability of these complex models, and in doing so improve transparency. However, the inherent fitness of these explainable methods can be hard to evaluate. In particular, methods to evaluate the fidelity of the explanation to the underlying black box require further development, especially for tabular data. In this paper, we (a) propose a three phase approach to developing an evaluation method; (b) adapt an existing evaluation method primarily for image and text data to evaluate models trained on tabular data; and (c) evaluate two popular explainable methods using this evaluation method. Our evaluations suggest that the internal mechanism of the underlying predictive model, the internal mechanism of the explainable method used and model and data complexity all affect explanation fidelity. Given that explanation fidelity is so sensitive to context and tools and data used, we could not clearly identify any specific explainable method as being superior to another.
Scoring systems are highly interpretable and widely used to evaluate time-to-event outcomes in healthcare research. However, existing time-to-event scores are predominantly created ad-hoc using a few manually selected variables based on clinician's knowledge, suggesting an unmet need for a robust and efficient generic score-generating method. AutoScore was previously developed as an interpretable machine learning score generator, integrated both machine learning and point-based scores in the strong discriminability and accessibility. We have further extended it to time-to-event data and developed AutoScore-Survival, for automatically generating time-to-event scores with right-censored survival data. Random survival forest provides an efficient solution for selecting variables, and Cox regression was used for score weighting. We illustrated our method in a real-life study of 90-day mortality of patients in intensive care units and compared its performance with survival models (i.e., Cox) and the random survival forest. The AutoScore-Survival-derived scoring model was more parsimonious than survival models built using traditional variable selection methods (e.g., penalized likelihood approach and stepwise variable selection), and its performance was comparable to survival models using the same set of variables. Although AutoScore-Survival achieved a comparable integrated area under the curve of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.767-0.794), the integer-valued time-to-event scores generated are favorable in clinical applications because they are easier to compute and interpret. Our proposed AutoScore-Survival provides an automated, robust and easy-to-use machine learning-based clinical score generator to studies of time-to-event outcomes. It provides a systematic guideline to facilitate the future development of time-to-event scores for clinical applications.
This paper contributes to interpretable machine learning via visual knowledge discovery in parallel coordinates. The concepts of hypercubes and hyper-blocks are used as easily understandable by end-users in the visual form in parallel coordinates. The Hyper algorithm for classification with mixed and pure hyper-blocks (HBs) is proposed to discover hyper-blocks interactively and automatically in individual, multiple, overlapping, and non-overlapping setting. The combination of hyper-blocks with linguistic description of visual patterns is presented too. It is shown that Hyper models generalize decision trees. The Hyper algorithm was tested on the benchmark data from UCI ML repository. It allowed discovering pure and mixed HBs with all data and then with 10-fold cross validation. The links between hyper-blocks, dimension reduction and visualization are established. Major benefits of hyper-block technology and the Hyper algorithm are in their ability to discover and observe hyper-blocks by end-users including side by side visualizations making patterns visible for all classes. Another advantage of sets of HBs relative to the decision trees is the ability to avoid both data overgeneralization and overfitting.
This paper proposed a new methodology for machine learning in 2-dimensional space (2-D ML) in inline coordinates. It is a full machine learning approach that does not require to deal with n-dimensional data in n-dimensional space. It allows discovering n-D patterns in 2-D space without loss of n-D information using graph representations of n-D data in 2-D. Specifically, it can be done with the inline based coordinates in different modifications, including static and dynamic ones. The classification and regression algorithms based on these inline coordinates were introduced. A successful case study based on a benchmark data demonstrated the feasibility of the approach. This approach helps to consolidate further a whole new area of full 2-D machine learning as a promising ML methodology. It has advantages of abilities to involve actively the end-users into the discovering of models and their justification. Another advantage is providing interpretable ML models.
The field of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to build explainable and interpretable machine learning (or deep learning) methods without sacrificing prediction performance. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have been successful in making predictions, especially in image classification. However, these famous deep learning models use tens of millions of parameters based on a large number of pre-trained filters which have been repurposed from previous data sets. We propose a novel Interaction-based Convolutional Neural Network (ICNN) that does not make assumptions about the relevance of local information. Instead, we use a model-free Influence Score (I-score) to directly extract the influential information from images to form important variable modules. We demonstrate that the proposed method produces state-of-the-art prediction performance of 99.8% on a real-world data set classifying COVID-19 Chest X-ray images without sacrificing the explanatory power of the model. This proposed design can efficiently screen COVID-19 patients before human diagnosis, and will be the benchmark for addressing future XAI problems in large-scale data sets.
Counterfactual explanations are usually generated through heuristics that are sensitive to the search's initial conditions. The absence of guarantees of performance and robustness hinders trustworthiness. In this paper, we take a disciplined approach towards counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles. We advocate for a model-based search aiming at "optimal" explanations and propose efficient mixed-integer programming approaches. We show that isolation forests can be modeled within our framework to focus the search on plausible explanations with a low outlier score. We provide comprehensive coverage of additional constraints that model important objectives, heterogeneous data types, structural constraints on the feature space, along with resource and actionability restrictions. Our experimental analyses demonstrate that the proposed search approach requires a computational effort that is orders of magnitude smaller than previous mathematical programming algorithms. It scales up to large data sets and tree ensembles, where it provides, within seconds, systematic explanations grounded on well-defined models solved to optimality.
Effective biosecurity practices in swine production are key in preventing the introduction and dissemination of infectious pathogens. Ideally, biosecurity practices should be chosen by their impact on bio-containment and bio-exclusion, however quantitative supporting evidence is often unavailable. Therefore, the development of methodologies capable of quantifying and ranking biosecurity practices according to their efficacy in reducing risk have the potential to facilitate better informed choices. Using survey data on biosecurity practices, farm demographics, and previous outbreaks from 139 herds, a set of machine learning algorithms were trained to classify farms by porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus status, depending on their biosecurity practices, to produce a predicted outbreak risk. A novel interpretable machine learning toolkit, MrIML-biosecurity, was developed to benchmark farms and production systems by predicted risk, and quantify the impact of biosecurity practices on disease risk at individual farms. Quantifying the variable impact on predicted risk 50% of 42 variables were associated with fomite spread while 31% were associated with local transmission. Results from machine learning interpretations identified similar results, finding substantial contribution to predicted outbreak risk from biosecurity practices relating to: the turnover and number of employees; the surrounding density of swine premises and pigs; the sharing of trailers; distance from the public road; and production type. In addition, the development of individualized biosecurity assessments provides the opportunity to guide biosecurity implementation on a case-by-case basis. Finally, the flexibility of the MrIML-biosecurity toolkit gives it potential to be applied to wider areas of biosecurity benchmarking, to address weaknesses in other livestock systems and industry relevant diseases.
To increase the ubiquity of machine learning it needs to be automated. Automation is cost-effective as it allows experts to spend less time tuning the approach, which leads to shorter development times. However, while this automation produces highly accurate architectures, they can be uninterpretable, acting as `black-boxes' which produce low conventional errors but fail to model the underlying input-output relationships -- the ground truth. This paper explores the use of the Fit to Median Error measure in machine learning regression automation, using evolutionary computation in order to improve the approximation of the ground truth. When used alongside conventional error measures it improves interpretability by regularising learnt input-output relationships to the conditional median. It is compared to traditional regularisers to illustrate that the use of the Fit to Median Error produces regression neural networks which model more consistent input-output relationships. The problem considered is ship power prediction using a fuel-saving air lubrication system, which is highly stochastic in nature. The networks optimised for their Fit to Median Error are shown to approximate the ground truth more consistently, without sacrificing conventional Minkowski-r error values.
Lending decisions are usually made with proprietary models that provide minimally acceptable explanations to users. In a future world without such secrecy, what decision support tools would one want to use for justified lending decisions? This question is timely, since the economy has dramatically shifted due to a pandemic, and a massive number of new loans will be necessary in the short term. We propose a framework for such decisions, including a globally interpretable machine learning model, an interactive visualization of it, and several types of summaries and explanations for any given decision. The machine learning model is a two-layer additive risk model, which resembles a two-layer neural network, but is decomposable into subscales. In this model, each node in the first (hidden) layer represents a meaningful subscale model, and all of the nonlinearities are transparent. Our online visualization tool allows exploration of this model, showing precisely how it came to its conclusion. We provide three types of explanations that are simpler than, but consistent with, the global model: case-based reasoning explanations that use neighboring past cases, a set of features that were the most important for the model's prediction, and summary-explanations that provide a customized sparse explanation for any particular lending decision made by the model. Our framework earned the FICO recognition award for the Explainable Machine Learning Challenge, which was the first public challenge in the domain of explainable machine learning.