This paper considers a strongly connected network of agents, each capable of partially observing and controlling a discrete-time linear time-invariant (LTI) system that is jointly observable and controllable. Additionally, agents collaborate to achieve a shared estimated state, computed as the average of their local state estimates. Recent studies suggest that increasing the number of average consensus steps between state estimation updates allows agents to choose from a wider range of state feedback controllers, thereby potentially enhancing control performance. However, such approaches require that agents know the input matrices of all other nodes, and the selection of control gains is, in general, centralized. Motivated by the limitations of such approaches, we propose a new technique where: (i) estimation and control gain design is fully distributed and finite-time, and (ii) agent coordination involves a finite-time exact average consensus algorithm, allowing arbitrary selection of estimation convergence rate despite the estimator's distributed nature. We verify our methodology's effectiveness using illustrative numerical simulations.
This paper introduces a novel control framework for Lagrangian variable speed limits in hybrid traffic flow environments utilizing automated vehicles (AVs). The framework was validated using a fleet of 100 connected automated vehicles as part of the largest coordinated open-road test designed to smooth traffic flow. The framework includes two main components: a high-level controller deployed on the server side, named Speed Planner, and low-level controllers called vehicle controllers deployed on the vehicle side. The Speed Planner designs and updates target speeds for the vehicle controllers based on real-time Traffic State Estimation (TSE) [1]. The Speed Planner comprises two modules: a TSE enhancement module and a target speed design module. The TSE enhancement module is designed to minimize the effects of inherent latency in the received traffic information and to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of the input traffic data. The target speed design module generates target speed profiles with the goal of improving traffic flow. The vehicle controllers are designed to track the target speed meanwhile responding to the surrounding situation. The numerical simulation indicates the performance of the proposed method: the bottleneck throughput has increased by 5.01%, and the speed standard deviation has been reduced by a significant 34.36%. We further showcase an operational study with a description of how the controller was implemented on a field-test with 100 AVs and its comprehensive effects on the traffic flow.
Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state estimation, however can have difficulty learning the parameters accurately. On the other hand, machine learning based approaches can naturally learn the state and parameters, but their applicability can be limited, or produce uncertainties that are hard to interpret. Inspired by the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method in spatial statistics, we propose an alternative approach to DA based on iteratively linearising the dynamical model. This produces a Gaussian Markov random field at each iteration, enabling one to use INLA to infer the state and parameters. Our approach can be used for arbitrary nonlinear systems, while retaining interpretability, and is furthermore demonstrated to outperform existing methods on the DA task. By providing a more nuanced approach to handling nonlinear PDE priors, our methodology offers improved accuracy and robustness in predictions, especially where data sparsity is prevalent.
The ability to estimate joint parameters is essential for various applications in robotics and computer vision. In this paper, we propose CAPT: category-level articulation estimation from a point cloud using Transformer. CAPT uses an end-to-end transformer-based architecture for joint parameter and state estimation of articulated objects from a single point cloud. The proposed CAPT methods accurately estimate joint parameters and states for various articulated objects with high precision and robustness. The paper also introduces a motion loss approach, which improves articulation estimation performance by emphasizing the dynamic features of articulated objects. Additionally, the paper presents a double voting strategy to provide the framework with coarse-to-fine parameter estimation. Experimental results on several category datasets demonstrate that our methods outperform existing alternatives for articulation estimation. Our research provides a promising solution for applying Transformer-based architectures in articulated object analysis.
The impact of meteorological observations on weather forecasting varies with sensor type, location, time, and other environmental factors. Thus, quantitative analysis of observation impacts is crucial for effective and efficient development of weather forecasting systems. However, the existing impact analysis methods are difficult to be widely applied due to their high dependencies on specific forecasting systems. Also, they cannot provide observation impacts at multiple spatio-temporal scales, only global impacts of observation types. To address these issues, we present a novel system called ``CloudNine,'' which allows analysis of individual observations' impacts on specific predictions based on explainable graph neural networks (XGNNs). Combining an XGNN-based atmospheric state estimation model with a numerical weather prediction model, we provide a web application to search for observations in the 3D space of the Earth system and to visualize the impact of individual observations on predictions in specific spatial regions and time periods.
Abstract—This paper addresses the distribution system state estimation (DSSE) with unknown topology change. A specific kernel that can transfer across tasks is adopted to find relevant patterns from samples under different topologies and induce knowledge transfer. This enables the proposed method to achieve effective inductive reasoning when only limited data are available under a new topology. The Bayesian inference inherently allows us to quantify the uncertainties of the DSSE results. Comparative results with other methods on IEEE test systems demonstrate the improved accuracy and robustness against topology change.
We use Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to solve the discrete-time nonlinear observer state estimation problem. Integrated within a single-step exact observer linearization framework, the proposed PINN approach aims at learning a nonlinear state transformation map by solving a system of inhomogeneous functional equations. The performance of the proposed PINN approach is assessed via two illustrative case studies for which the observer linearizing transformation map can be derived analytically. We also perform an uncertainty quantification analysis for the proposed PINN scheme and we compare it with conventional power-series numerical implementations, which rely on the computation of a power series solution.
Traditional tracking-by-detection systems typically employ Kalman filters (KF) for state estimation. However, the KF requires domain-specific design choices and it is ill-suited to handling non-linear motion patterns. To address these limitations, we propose two innovative data-driven filtering methods. Our first method employs a Bayesian filter with a trainable motion model to predict an object's future location and combines its predictions with observations gained from an object detector to enhance bounding box prediction accuracy. Moreover, it dispenses with most domain-specific design choices characteristic of the KF. The second method, an end-to-end trainable filter, goes a step further by learning to correct detector errors, further minimizing the need for domain expertise. Additionally, we introduce a range of motion model architectures based on Recurrent Neural Networks, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, and Conditional Neural Processes, that are combined with the proposed filtering methods. Our extensive evaluation across multiple datasets demonstrates that our proposed filters outperform the traditional KF in object tracking, especially in the case of non-linear motion patterns -- the use case our filters are best suited to. We also conduct noise robustness analysis of our filters with convincing positive results. We further propose a new cost function for associating observations with tracks. Our tracker, which incorporates this new association cost with our proposed filters, outperforms the conventional SORT method and other motion-based trackers in multi-object tracking according to multiple metrics on motion-rich DanceTrack and SportsMOT datasets.
When a mobile robot is asked to navigate intelligently in an environment, it needs to estimate its own and the environment's state. One of the popular methods for robot state and position estimation is particle filtering (PF). Visual Teach and Repeat (VT&R) is a type of navigation that uses a camera to navigate the robot along the previously traversed path. Particle filters are usually used in VT&R to fuse data from odometry and camera to estimate the distance traveled along the path. However, in VT&R, there are other valuable states that the robot can benefit from, especially when moving through changing environments. We propose a multidimensional particle filter to estimate the robot state in VT&R navigation. Apart from the traveled distance, our particle filter estimates lateral and heading deviation from the taught path as well as the current appearance of the environment. This appearance is estimated using maps created across various environmental conditions recorded during the previous traversals. The joint state estimation is based on contrastive neural network architecture, allowing self-supervised learning. This architecture can process multiple images in parallel, alleviating the potential overhead caused by computing the particle filter over the maps simultaneously. We conducted experiments to show that the joint robot/environment state estimation improves navigation accuracy and robustness in a continual mapping setup. Unlike the other frameworks, which treat the robot position and environment appearance separately, our PF represents them as one multidimensional state, resulting in a more general uncertainty model for VT&R.
Geosteering, a key component of drilling operations, traditionally involves manual interpretation of various data sources such as well-log data. This introduces subjective biases and inconsistent procedures. Academic attempts to solve geosteering decision optimization with greedy optimization and Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) showed promise but lacked adaptivity to realistic diverse scenarios. Reinforcement learning (RL) offers a solution to these challenges, facilitating optimal decision-making through reward-based iterative learning. State estimation methods, e.g., particle filter (PF), provide a complementary strategy for geosteering decision-making based on online information. We integrate an RL-based geosteering with PF to address realistic geosteering scenarios. Our framework deploys PF to process real-time well-log data to estimate the location of the well relative to the stratigraphic layers, which then informs the RL-based decision-making process. We compare our method's performance with that of using solely either RL or PF. Our findings indicate a synergy between RL and PF in yielding optimized geosteering decisions.
Accurate real-time traffic state forecasting plays a pivotal role in traffic control research. In particular, the CIRCLES consortium project necessitates predictive techniques to mitigate the impact of data source delays. After the success of the MegaVanderTest experiment, this paper aims at overcoming the current system limitations and develop a more suited approach to improve the real-time traffic state estimation for the next iterations of the experiment. In this paper, we introduce the SA-LSTM, a deep forecasting method integrating Self-Attention (SA) on the spatial dimension with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) yielding state-of-the-art results in real-time mesoscale traffic forecasting. We extend this approach to multi-step forecasting with the n-step SA-LSTM, which outperforms traditional multi-step forecasting methods in the trade-off between short-term and long-term predictions, all while operating in real-time.
The integration of physiological computing into mixed-initiative human-robot interaction systems offers valuable advantages in autonomous task allocation by incorporating real-time features as human state observations into the decision-making system. This approach may alleviate the cognitive load on human operators by intelligently allocating mission tasks between agents. Nevertheless, accommodating a diverse pool of human participants with varying physiological and behavioral measurements presents a substantial challenge. To address this, resorting to a probabilistic framework becomes necessary, given the inherent uncertainty and partial observability on the human's state. Recent research suggests to learn a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model from a data set of previously collected experiences that can be solved using Offline Reinforcement Learning (ORL) methods. In the present work, we not only highlight the potential of partially observable representations and physiological measurements to improve human operator state estimation and performance, but also enhance the overall mission effectiveness of a human-robot team. Importantly, as the fixed data set may not contain enough information to fully represent complex stochastic processes, we propose a method to incorporate model uncertainty, thus enabling risk-sensitive sequential decision-making. Experiments were conducted with a group of twenty-six human participants within a simulated robot teleoperation environment, yielding empirical evidence of the method's efficacy. The obtained adaptive task allocation policy led to statistically significant higher scores than the one that was used to collect the data set, allowing for generalization across diverse participants also taking into account risk-sensitive metrics.
Reliable and precise absolute positioning is necessary in the realm of Connected Automated Vehicles (CAV). Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) provides the foundation for absolute positioning. Recently enhanced Precise Point Positioning (PPP) technology now offers corrections for GNSS on a global scale, with the potential to achieve accuracy suitable for real-time CAV applications. However, in obstructed sky conditions, GNSS signals are often affected by outliers; therefore, addressing outliers is crucial. In GNSS applications, there are many more measurements available than are required to meet the specification. Therefore, selecting measurements to avoid outliers is of interest. The recently developed Risk-Averse Performance-Specified (RAPS) state estimation optimally selects measurements to minimize outlier risk while meeting a positive semi-definite constraint on performance; at present, the existing solution methods are not suitable for real-time computation and have not been demonstrated using challenging real-world data or in Real-time PPP (RT-PPP) applications. This article makes contributions in a few directions. First, it uses a diagonal performance specification, which reduces computational costs relative to the positive semi-definite constraint. Second, this article considers GNSS RT-PPP applications. Third, the experiments use real-world GNSS data collected in challenging environments. The RT-PPP experimental results show that among the compared methods: all achieve comparable performance in open-sky conditions, and all exceed the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) specification; however, in challenging environments, the diagonal RAPS approach shows improvement of 6-19% over traditional methods. Throughout, RAPS achieves the lowest estimation risk.
The spatio-temporal interpolation of large geophysical datasets has historically been addressed by Optimal Interpolation (OI) and more sophisticated equation-based or data-driven Data Assimilation (DA) techniques. Recent advances in the deep learning community enables to address the interpolation problem through a neural architecture incorporating a variational data assimilation framework. The reconstruction task is seen as a joint learning problem of the prior involved in the variational inner cost, seen as a projection operator of the state, and the gradient-based minimization of the latter. Both prior models and solvers are stated as neural networks with automatic differentiation which can be trained by minimizing a loss function, typically the mean squared error between some ground truth and the reconstruction. Such a strategy turns out to be very efficient to improve the mean state estimation, but still needs complementary developments to quantify its related uncertainty. In this work, we use the theory of Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) and Gaussian Processes (GP) to estimate both space-and time-varying covariance of the state. Our neural variational scheme is modified to embed an augmented state formulation with both state and SPDE parametrization to estimate. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework on a spatio-temporal GP driven by diffusion-based anisotropies and on realistic Sea Surface Height (SSH) datasets. We show how our solution reaches the OI baseline in the Gaussian case. For nonlinear dynamics, as almost always stated in DA, our solution outperforms OI, while allowing for fast and interpretable online parameter estimation.
We consider the problem of real-time reconstruction of urban air pollution maps. The task is challenging due to the heterogeneous sources of available data, the scarcity of direct measurements, the presence of noise, and the large surfaces that need to be considered. In this work, we introduce different reconstruction methods based on posing the problem on city graphs. Our strategies can be classified as fully data-driven, physics-driven, or hybrid, and we combine them with super-learning models. The performance of the methods is tested in the case of the inner city of Paris, France.
This paper presents a novel guidance law for target tracking applications where the target motion model is unknown and sensor measurements are intermittent due to unknown environmental conditions and low measurement update rate. In this work, the target motion model is represented by a transformer neural network and trained by previous target position measurements. This transformer motion model serves as the prediction step in a particle filter for target state estimation and uncertainty quantification. The particle filter estimation uncertainty is utilized in the information-driven guidance law to compute a path for the mobile agent to travel to a position with maximum expected entropy reduction (EER). The computation of EER is performed in real-time by approximating the information gain from the predicted particle distributions relative to the current distribution. Simulation and hardware experiments are performed with a quadcopter agent and TurtleBot target to demonstrate that the presented guidance law outperforms two other baseline guidance methods.
This paper introduces a novel proprioceptive state estimator for legged robots that combines model-based filters and deep neural networks. Recent studies have shown that neural networks such as multi-layer perceptron or recurrent neural networks can estimate the robot states, including contact probability and linear velocity. Inspired by this, we develop a state estimation framework that integrates a neural measurement network (NMN) with an invariant extended Kalman filter. We show that our framework improves estimation performance in various terrains. Existing studies that combine model-based filters and learning-based approaches typically use real-world data. However, our approach relies solely on simulation data, as it allows us to easily obtain extensive data. This difference leads to a gap between the learning and the inference domain, commonly referred to as a sim-to-real gap. We address this challenge by adapting existing learning techniques and regularization. To validate our proposed method, we conduct experiments using a quadruped robot on four types of terrain: \textit{flat}, \textit{debris}, \textit{soft}, and \textit{slippery}. We observe that our approach significantly reduces position drift compared to the existing model-based state estimator.
This report presents three Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) methods for discrete-time partitioned linear systems, i.e. systems decomposed into coupled subsystems with non-overlapping states. The MHE approach is used due to its capability of exploiting physical constraints on states in the estimation process. In the proposed algorithms, each subsystem solves reduced-order MHE problems to estimate its own state and different estimators have different computational complexity, accuracy and transmission requirements among subsystems. In all cases, conditions for the convergence of the estimation error to zero are analyzed.
Message passing Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are known to be limited in expressive power by the 1-WL color-refinement test for graph isomorphism. Other more expressive models either are computationally expensive or need preprocessing to extract structural features from the graph. In this work, we propose to make GNNs universal by guiding the learning process with exact isomorphism solver techniques which operate on the paradigm of Individualization and Refinement (IR), a method to artificially introduce asymmetry and further refine the coloring when 1-WL stops. Isomorphism solvers generate a search tree of colorings whose leaves uniquely identify the graph. However, the tree grows exponentially large and needs hand-crafted pruning techniques which are not desirable from a learning perspective. We take a probabilistic view and approximate the search tree of colorings (i.e. embeddings) by sampling multiple paths from root to leaves of the search tree. To learn more discriminative representations, we guide the sampling process with particle filter updates, a principled approach for sequential state estimation. Our algorithm is end-to-end differentiable, can be applied with any GNN as backbone and learns richer graph representations with only linear increase in runtime. Experimental evaluation shows that our approach consistently outperforms leading GNN models on both synthetic benchmarks for isomorphism detection as well as real-world datasets.
This paper introduces a stochastic hybrid system (SHS) framework in state space model to capture sensor, communication, and system contingencies in modern power systems (MPS). Within this new framework, the paper concentrates on the development of state estimation methods and algorithms to provide reliable state estimation under randomly intermittent and noisy sensor data. MPSs employ diversified measurement devices for monitoring system operations that are subject to random measurement errors and rely on communication networks to transmit data whose channels encounter random packet loss and interruptions. The contingency and noise form two distinct and interacting stochastic processes that have a significant impact on state estimation accuracy and reliability. This paper formulates stochastic hybrid system models for MPSs, introduces coordinated observer design algorithms for state estimation, and establishes their convergence and reliability properties. A further study reveals a fundamental design tradeoff between convergence rates and steady-state error variances. Simulation studies on the IEEE 5-bus system and IEEE 33-bus system are used to illustrate the modeling methods, observer design algorithms, convergence properties, performance evaluations, and impact sensor system selections.