This paper investigates a bi-static integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) system for multi-target scenarios using impulse radio ultra-wideband (IR-UWB) signals, which offer fine temporal resolution, low power consumption, and strong resistance to multipath interference. Two typical modulation schemes, namely pulse position modulation (PPM) and binary phase shift keying (BPSK), are considered for communication over the delay and phase domains, respectively. Accordingly, we introduce a pilot-based decoupling approach that relies on known time-delays, as well as a differential decoupling strategy that uses a known starting symbol position ({no pilot required}). A key contribution of this work is the development of a unified analytical framework based on the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), which characterizes the fundamental coupling between communication and sensing in both delay and Doppler domains. This coupling is examined through the singularity structure of the FIM, providing new theoretical insights into the joint performance limits of UWB-ISAC systems. Finally, we assess the sensing and communication performance under various modulation schemes under the constraints of current UWB standards. This assessment utilizes the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) for sensing and the data transmission rate for communication, offering theoretical insights into choosing suitable data signal processing methods in real-world applications.
Through experimental studies, many details of the pathway of integrin $\alpha_{\rm IIb}\beta_3$ activation by ADP during the platelet aggregation process have been mapped out. ADP binds to two separate G protein coupled receptors on platelet surfaces, leading to alterations in the regulation of the small GTPase RAP1. We seek to (1) gain insights into the relative contributions of both pathways to RAP1-mediated integrin activation and to (2) predict wildtype and mutated cell behavior in response to a continuous range of external agonist concentrations. To this end, we develop a dynamical systems model detailing the action of each protein in the two pathways up to the regulation of RAP1. We perform a parameter estimation using flow cytometry data to determine a number of unknown rate constants. We then validate with already published data; in particular, the model confirmed the effect of impaired P2Y$_1$ receptor desensitization or reduced RASA3 expression on RAP1 activation. We then predict the effect of protein expression levels on integrin activation and show that components of the P2Y$_{12}$ pathway are critical to the regulation of integrin. This model aids in our understanding of interindividual variability in platelet response to ADP and therapeutic P2Y$_{12}$ inhibition. It also provides a more detailed view of platelet activation in the ongoing mathematical study of platelet aggregation.
This paper addresses the challenge of estimating high-dimensional parameters in non-standard data environments, where traditional methods often falter due to issues such as heavy-tailed distributions, data contamination, and dependent observations. We propose robust subsampling techniques, specifically Adaptive Importance Sampling (AIS) and Stratified Subsampling, designed to enhance the reliability and efficiency of parameter estimation. Under some clearly outlined conditions, we establish consistency and asymptotic normality for the proposed estimators, providing non-asymptotic error bounds that quantify their performance. Our theoretical foundations are complemented by controlled experiments demonstrating the superiority of our methods over conventional approaches. By bridging the gap between theory and practice, this work offers significant contributions to robust statistical estimation, paving the way for advancements in various applied domains.
We conduct the convergence analysis of parameter estimation in the contaminated mixture of experts. This model is motivated from the prompt learning problem where ones utilize prompts, which can be formulated as experts, to fine-tune a large-scaled pre-trained model for learning downstream tasks. There are two fundamental challenges emerging from the analysis: (i) the proportion in the mixture of the pre-trained model and the prompt may converge to zero where the prompt vanishes during the training; (ii) the algebraic interaction among parameters of the pre-trained model and the prompt can occur via some partial differential equation and decelerate the prompt learning. In response, we introduce a distinguishability condition to control the previous parameter interaction. Additionally, we also consider various types of expert structures to understand their effects on the parameter estimation. In each scenario, we provide comprehensive convergence rates of parameter estimation along with the corresponding minimax lower bounds.
Industrial prognostics aims to develop data-driven methods that leverage high-dimensional degradation signals from assets to predict their failure times. The success of these models largely depends on the availability of substantial historical data for training. However, in practice, individual organizations often lack sufficient data to independently train reliable prognostic models, and privacy concerns prevent data sharing between organizations for collaborative model training. To overcome these challenges, this article proposes a statistical learning-based federated model that enables multiple organizations to jointly train a prognostic model while keeping their data local and secure. The proposed approach involves two key stages: federated dimension reduction and federated (log)-location-scale regression. In the first stage, we develop a federated randomized singular value decomposition algorithm for multivariate functional principal component analysis, which efficiently reduces the dimensionality of degradation signals while maintaining data privacy. The second stage proposes a federated parameter estimation algorithm for (log)-location-scale regression, allowing organizations to collaboratively estimate failure time distributions without sharing raw data. The proposed approach addresses the limitations of existing federated prognostic methods by using statistical learning techniques that perform well with smaller datasets and provide comprehensive failure time distributions. The effectiveness and practicality of the proposed model are validated using simulated data and a dataset from the NASA repository.
Mixture of Experts (MoE) models are highly effective in scaling model capacity while preserving computational efficiency, with the gating network, or router, playing a central role by directing inputs to the appropriate experts. In this paper, we establish a novel connection between MoE frameworks and attention mechanisms, demonstrating how quadratic gating can serve as a more expressive and efficient alternative. Motivated by this insight, we explore the implementation of quadratic gating within MoE models, identifying a connection between the self-attention mechanism and the quadratic gating. We conduct a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the quadratic softmax gating MoE framework, showing improved sample efficiency in expert and parameter estimation. Our analysis provides key insights into optimal designs for quadratic gating and expert functions, further elucidating the principles behind widely used attention mechanisms. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that the quadratic gating MoE outperforms the traditional linear gating MoE. Moreover, our theoretical insights have guided the development of a novel attention mechanism, which we validated through extensive experiments. The results demonstrate its favorable performance over conventional models across various tasks.
Sparse system identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is still challenging, especially for stiff and high-order differential equations for noisy measurement data. The use of highly correlated functions makes distinguishing between true and false functions difficult, which limits the choice of functions. In this study, an equation discovery method has been proposed to tackle these problems. The key elements include a) use of B-splines for data fitting to get analytical derivatives superior to numerical derivatives, b) sequentially regularized derivatives for denoising (SRDD) algorithm, highly effective in removing noise from signal without system information loss, c) uncorrelated component analysis (UCA) algorithm that identifies and eliminates highly correlated functions while retaining the true functions, and d) physics-informed spline fitting (PISF) where the spline fitting is updated gradually while satisfying the governing equation with a dictionary of candidate functions to converge to the correct equation sequentially. The complete framework is built on a unified deep-learning architecture that eases the optimization process. The proposed method is demonstrated to discover various differential equations at various noise levels, including three-dimensional, fourth-order, and stiff equations. The parameter estimation converges accurately to the true values with a small coefficient of variation, suggesting robustness to the noise.
Recent advancements in machine learning have transformed the discovery of physical laws, moving from manual derivation to data-driven methods that simultaneously learn both the structure and parameters of governing equations. This shift introduces new challenges regarding the validity of the discovered equations, particularly concerning their uniqueness and, hence, identifiability. While the issue of non-uniqueness has been well-studied in the context of parameter estimation, it remains underexplored for algorithms that recover both structure and parameters simultaneously. Early studies have primarily focused on idealized scenarios with perfect, noise-free data. In contrast, this paper investigates how noise influences the uniqueness and identifiability of physical laws governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). We develop a comprehensive mathematical framework to analyze the uniqueness of PDEs in the presence of noise and introduce new algorithms that account for noise, providing thresholds to assess uniqueness and identifying situations where excessive noise hinders reliable conclusions. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these algorithms in detecting uniqueness despite the presence of noise.
This paper considers the problem of combinatorial multi-armed bandits with semi-bandit feedback and a cardinality constraint on the super-arm size. Existing algorithms for solving this problem typically involve two key sub-routines: (1) a parameter estimation routine that sequentially estimates a set of base-arm parameters, and (2) a super-arm selection policy for selecting a subset of base arms deemed optimal based on these parameters. State-of-the-art algorithms assume access to an exact oracle for super-arm selection with unbounded computational power. At each instance, this oracle evaluates a list of score functions, the number of which grows as low as linearly and as high as exponentially with the number of arms. This can be prohibitive in the regime of a large number of arms. This paper introduces a novel realistic alternative to the perfect oracle. This algorithm uses a combination of group-testing for selecting the super arms and quantized Thompson sampling for parameter estimation. Under a general separability assumption on the reward function, the proposed algorithm reduces the complexity of the super-arm-selection oracle to be logarithmic in the number of base arms while achieving the same regret order as the state-of-the-art algorithms that use exact oracles. This translates to at least an exponential reduction in complexity compared to the oracle-based approaches.
The Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model is one of the most widely used models for ranking a collection of items or agents based on pairwise comparisons among them. Given $n$ agents, the BTL model endows each agent $i$ with a latent skill score $\alpha_i > 0$ and posits that the probability that agent $i$ is preferred over agent $j$ is $\alpha_i/(\alpha_i + \alpha_j)$. In this work, our objective is to formulate a hypothesis test that determines whether a given pairwise comparison dataset, with $k$ comparisons per pair of agents, originates from an underlying BTL model. We formalize this testing problem in the minimax sense and define the critical threshold of the problem. We then establish upper bounds on the critical threshold for general induced observation graphs (satisfying mild assumptions) and develop lower bounds for complete induced graphs. Our bounds demonstrate that for complete induced graphs, the critical threshold scales as $\Theta((nk)^{-1/2})$ in a minimax sense. In particular, our test statistic for the upper bounds is based on a new approximation we derive for the separation distance between general pairwise comparison models and the class of BTL models. To further assess the performance of our statistical test, we prove upper bounds on the type I and type II probabilities of error. Much of our analysis is conducted within the context of a fixed observation graph structure, where the graph possesses certain ``nice'' properties, such as expansion and bounded principal ratio. Additionally, we derive several auxiliary results, such as bounds on principal ratios of graphs, $\ell^2$-bounds on BTL parameter estimation under model mismatch, stability of rankings under the BTL model, etc. We validate our theoretical results through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets and propose a data-driven permutation testing approach to determine test thresholds.
In the field of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics (PKPD) modeling, which plays a pivotal role in the drug development process, traditional models frequently encounter difficulties in fully encapsulating the complexities of drug absorption, distribution, and their impact on targets. Although multi-compartment models are frequently utilized to elucidate intricate drug dynamics, they can also be overly complex. To generalize modeling while maintaining simplicity, we propose an innovative approach that enhances PK and integrated PK-PD modeling by incorporating fractional calculus or time-varying parameter(s), combined with constant or piecewise constant parameters. These approaches effectively model anomalous diffusion, thereby capturing drug trapping and escape rates in heterogeneous tissues, which is a prevalent phenomenon in drug dynamics. Furthermore, this method provides insight into the dynamics of drug in cancer in multi-dose administrations. Our methodology employs a Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) and fractional Physics-Informed Neural Networks (fPINNs), integrating ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with integer/fractional derivative order from compartmental modeling with neural networks. This integration optimizes parameter estimation for variables that are time-variant, constant, piecewise constant, or related to the fractional derivative order. The results demonstrate that this methodology offers a robust framework that not only markedly enhances the model's depiction of drug absorption rates and distributed delayed responses but also unlocks different drug-effect dynamics, providing new insights into absorption rates, anomalous diffusion, drug resistance, peristance and pharmacokinetic tolerance, all within a system of just two (fractional) ODEs with explainable results.
This paper illustrates a further application of topological data analysis to the study of self-organising models for chemical and biological systems. In particular, we investigate whether topological summaries can capture the parameter dependence of pattern topology in reaction diffusion systems, by examining the homology of sublevel sets of solutions to Turing reaction diffusion systems for a range of parameters. We demonstrate that a topological clustering algorithm can reveal how pattern topology depends on parameters, using the chlorite--iodide--malonic acid system, and the prototypical Schnakenberg system for illustration. In addition, we discuss the prospective application of such clustering, for instance in refining priors for detailed parameter estimation for self-organising systems.
In this paper we study the question of how to reconstruct the state of a power system using Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). In our previous research we proved that this question has an affirmative answer imposing some rather strict structural assumptions: namely, neglecting the generator rotors saliency and assuming that the stator resistance of the synchronous generator is zero. It was shown in simulations that the performance of the proposed observer was sensitive to these assumptions, observing a transient quality degradation for realistic simulations not imposing these assumptions. Moreover, it was assumed in our previous work that the mechanical power and the field voltage are available for measurement, a scenario that it is not always realistic. In this paper we accomplish two ambitious objectives. First, we propose a new observer that does not impose the simplifying assumptions on the generator model. Secondly, we consider the more realistic scenario where only mechanical power is available for measurement. That is, we solve a problem of state reconstruction of a nonlinear system with partially known input measurements -- that is well-known to be a very challenging task. The design of the first observer relies on two recent developments proposed by the authors, a parameter estimation based approach to the problem of state estimation and the use of the Dynamic Regressor Extension and Mixing (DREM) technique to estimate these parameters. The use of DREM allows us to overcome the problem of lack of persistent excitation that stymies the application of standard parameter estimation designs. On the other hand, the observer for the partial input measurement scenario relies on the clever exploitation of the systems model. Simulation results illustrates the good performance of the proposed observers.
We present a purely deep neural network-based approach for estimating long memory parameters of time series models that incorporate the phenomenon of long-range dependence. Parameters, such as the Hurst exponent, are critical in characterizing the long-range dependence, roughness, and self-similarity of stochastic processes. The accurate and fast estimation of these parameters holds significant importance across various scientific disciplines, including finance, physics, and engineering. We harnessed efficient process generators to provide high-quality synthetic training data, enabling the training of scale-invariant 1D Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models. Our neural models outperform conventional statistical methods, even those augmented with neural networks. The precision, speed, consistency, and robustness of our estimators are demonstrated through experiments involving fractional Brownian motion (fBm), the Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) process, and the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process. We believe that our work will inspire further research in the field of stochastic process modeling and parameter estimation using deep learning techniques.
Incorporating a priori physics knowledge into machine learning leads to more robust and interpretable algorithms. In this work, we combine deep learning techniques and classic numerical methods for differential equations to solve two challenging problems in dynamical systems theory: dynamics discovery and parameter estimation. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches on a suite of test problems exhibiting oscillatory and chaotic dynamics. When comparing the performance of various numerical schemes, such as the Runge-Kutta and linear multistep families of methods, we observe promising results in predicting the system dynamics and estimating physical parameters, given appropriate choices of spatial and temporal discretization schemes and numerical method orders.
Prompt-based techniques, such as prompt-tuning and prefix-tuning, have gained prominence for their efficiency in fine-tuning large pre-trained models. Despite their widespread adoption, the theoretical foundations of these methods remain limited. For instance, in prefix-tuning, we observe that a key factor in achieving performance parity with full fine-tuning lies in the reparameterization strategy. However, the theoretical principles underpinning the effectiveness of this approach have yet to be thoroughly examined. Our study demonstrates that reparameterization is not merely an engineering trick but is grounded in deep theoretical foundations. Specifically, we show that the reparameterization strategy implicitly encodes a shared structure between prefix key and value vectors. Building on recent insights into the connection between prefix-tuning and mixture of experts models, we further illustrate that this shared structure significantly improves sample efficiency in parameter estimation compared to non-shared alternatives. The effectiveness of prefix-tuning across diverse tasks is empirically confirmed to be enhanced by the shared structure, through extensive experiments in both visual and language domains. Additionally, we uncover similar structural benefits in prompt-tuning, offering new perspectives on its success. Our findings provide theoretical and empirical contributions, advancing the understanding of prompt-based methods and their underlying mechanisms. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Minhchuyentoancbn/ReparamPrefix
Tolling, or congestion pricing, has emerged as an effective tool for preventing gridlock in traffic systems. However, tolls are currently mostly designed on route-based traffic assignment models (TAM), which may be unrealistic and computationally expensive. Existing approaches also impractically assume that the central tolling authority can access latency function parameters that characterize the time required to traverse each network arc (edge), as well as the entropy parameter $\beta$ that characterizes commuters' stochastic arc-selection decisions on the network. To address these issues, this work formulates an online learning algorithm that simultaneously refines estimates of linear arc latency functions and entropy parameters in an arc-based TAM, while implementing tolls on each arc to induce equilibrium flows that minimize overall congestion on the network. We prove that our algorithm incurs regret upper bounded by $O(\sqrt{T} \ln(T) |\arcsMod| \max\{|\nodesMod| \ln(|\arcsMod|/|\nodesMod|), B \})$, where $T$ denotes the total iteration count, $|\arcsMod|$ and $|\nodesMod|$ denote the total number of arcs and nodes in the network, respectively, and $B$ describes the number of arcs required to construct an estimate of $\beta$ (usually $\ll |I|$). Finally, we present numerical results on simulated traffic networks that validate our theoretical contributions.
The accurate modelling of structural dynamics is crucial across numerous engineering applications, such as Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), seismic analysis, and vibration control. Often, these models originate from physics-based principles and can be derived from corresponding governing equations, often of differential equation form. However, complex system characteristics, such as nonlinearities and energy dissipation mechanisms, often imply that such models are approximative and often imprecise. This challenge is further compounded in SHM, where sensor data is often sparse, making it difficult to fully observe the system's states. To address these issues, this paper explores the use of Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs), a class of physics-enhanced machine learning (PEML) techniques, for the identification and estimation of dynamical systems. PINNs offer a unique advantage by embedding known physical laws directly into the neural network's loss function, allowing for simple embedding of complex phenomena, even in the presence of uncertainties. This study specifically investigates three key applications of PINNs: state estimation in systems with sparse sensing, joint state-parameter estimation, when both system response and parameters are unknown, and parameter estimation within a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainties. The results demonstrate that PINNs deliver an efficient tool across all aforementioned tasks, even in presence of modelling errors. However, these errors tend to have a more significant impact on parameter estimation, as the optimization process must reconcile discrepancies between the prescribed model and the true system behavior. Despite these challenges, PINNs show promise in dynamical system modeling, offering a robust approach to handling uncertainties.
Extracting physical dynamical system parameters from recorded observations is key in natural science. Current methods for automatic parameter estimation from video train supervised deep networks on large datasets. Such datasets require labels, which are difficult to acquire. While some unsupervised techniques--which depend on frame prediction--exist, they suffer from long training times, initialization instabilities, only consider motion-based dynamical systems, and are evaluated mainly on synthetic data. In this work, we propose an unsupervised method to estimate the physical parameters of known, continuous governing equations from single videos suitable for different dynamical systems beyond motion and robust to initialization. Moreover, we remove the need for frame prediction by implementing a KL-divergence-based loss function in the latent space, which avoids convergence to trivial solutions and reduces model size and compute. We first evaluate our model on synthetic data, as commonly done. After which, we take the field closer to reality by recording Delfys75: our own real-world dataset of 75 videos for five different types of dynamical systems to evaluate our method and others. Our method compares favorably to others. %, yet, and real-world video datasets and demonstrate improved parameter estimation accuracy compared to existing methods. Code and data are available online:https://github.com/Alejandro-neuro/Learning_physics_from_video.
Computational models are invaluable in capturing the complexities of real-world biological processes. Yet, the selection of appropriate algorithms for inference tasks, especially when dealing with real-world observational data, remains a challenging and underexplored area. This gap has spurred the development of various parameter estimation algorithms, particularly within the realm of Simulation-Based Inference (SBI), such as neural and statistical SBI methods. Limited research exists on how to make informed choices on SBI methods when faced with real-world data, which often results in some form of model misspecification. In this paper, we provide comprehensive guidelines for deciding between SBI approaches for complex biological models. We apply the guidelines to two agent-based models that describe cellular dynamics using real-world data. Our study unveils a critical insight: while neural SBI methods demand significantly fewer simulations for inference results, they tend to yield biased estimations, a trend persistent even with robust variants of these algorithms. On the other hand, the accuracy of statistical SBI methods enhances substantially as the number of simulations increases. This finding suggests that, given a sufficient computational budget, statistical SBI can surpass neural SBI in performance. Our results not only shed light on the efficacy of different SBI methodologies in real-world scenarios but also suggest potential avenues for enhancing neural SBI approaches. This study is poised to be a useful resource for computational biologists navigating the intricate landscape of SBI in biological modeling.