In this work, we have developed a variational Bayesian inference theory of elasticity, which is accomplished by using a mixed Variational Bayesian inference Finite Element Method (VBI-FEM) that can be used to solve the inverse deformation problems of continua. In the proposed variational Bayesian inference theory of continuum mechanics, the elastic strain energy is used as a prior in a Bayesian inference network, which can intelligently recover the detailed continuum deformation mappings with only given the information on the deformed and undeformed continuum body shapes without knowing the interior deformation and the precise actual boundary conditions, both traction as well as displacement boundary conditions, and the actual material constitutive relation. Moreover, we have implemented the related finite element formulation in a computational probabilistic mechanics framework. To numerically solve mixed variational problem, we developed an operator splitting or staggered algorithm that consists of the finite element (FE) step and the Bayesian learning (BL) step as an analogue of the well-known the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. By solving the mixed probabilistic Galerkin variational problem, we demonstrated that the proposed method is able to inversely predict continuum deformation mappings with strong discontinuity or fracture without knowing the external load conditions. The proposed method provides a robust machine intelligent solution for the long-sought-after inverse problem solution, which has been a major challenge in structure failure forensic pattern analysis in past several decades. The proposed method may become a promising artificial intelligence-based inverse method for solving general partial differential equations.
The multifaceted nature of subjective experience poses a challenge to the study of consciousness. Traditional neuroscientific approaches often concentrate on isolated facets, such as perceptual awareness or the global state of consciousness and construct a theory around the relevant empirical paradigms and findings. Theories of consciousness are, therefore, often difficult to compare; indeed, there might be little overlap in the phenomena such theories aim to explain. Here, we take a different approach: starting with active inference, a first principles framework for modelling behaviour as (approximate) Bayesian inference, and building up to a minimal theory of consciousness, which emerges from the shared features of computational models derived under active inference. We review a body of work applying active inference models to the study of consciousness and argue that there is implicit in all these models a small set of theoretical commitments that point to a minimal (and testable) theory of consciousness.
Efficiently learning a sequence of related tasks, such as in continual learning, poses a significant challenge for neural nets due to the delicate trade-off between catastrophic forgetting and loss of plasticity. We address this challenge with a grounded framework for sequentially learning related tasks based on Bayesian inference. Specifically, we treat the model's parameters as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and perform efficient inference using Gaussian filtering and smoothing. This general formalism subsumes existing continual learning approaches, while also offering a clearer conceptual understanding of its components. Leveraging Laplace approximations during filtering, we construct Gaussian posterior measures on the weight space of a neural network for each task. We use it as an efficient regularizer by exploiting the structure of the generalized Gauss-Newton matrix (GGN) to construct diagonal plus low-rank approximations. The dynamics model allows targeted control of the learning process and the incorporation of domain-specific knowledge, such as modeling the type of shift between tasks. Additionally, using Bayesian approximate smoothing can enhance the performance of task-specific models without needing to re-access any data.
Despite the advent of touchscreens, typing on physical keyboards remains most efficient for entering text, because users can leverage all fingers across a full-size keyboard for convenient typing. As users increasingly type on the go, text input on mobile and wearable devices has had to compromise on full-size typing. In this paper, we present TapType, a mobile text entry system for full-size typing on passive surfaces--without an actual keyboard. From the inertial sensors inside a band on either wrist, TapType decodes and relates surface taps to a traditional QWERTY keyboard layout. The key novelty of our method is to predict the most likely character sequences by fusing the finger probabilities from our Bayesian neural network classifier with the characters' prior probabilities from an n-gram language model. In our online evaluation, participants on average typed 19 words per minute with a character error rate of 0.6% after 30 minutes of training. Expert typists thereby consistently achieved more than 25 WPM at a similar error rate. We demonstrate applications of TapType in mobile use around smartphones and tablets, as a complement to interaction in situated Mixed Reality outside visual control, and as an eyes-free mobile text input method using an audio feedback-only interface.
We introduce Flat Hilbert Bayesian Inference (FHBI), an algorithm designed to enhance generalization in Bayesian inference. Our approach involves an iterative two-step procedure with an adversarial functional perturbation step and a functional descent step within the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. This methodology is supported by a theoretical analysis that extends previous findings on generalization ability from finite-dimensional Euclidean spaces to infinite-dimensional functional spaces. To evaluate the effectiveness of FHBI, we conduct comprehensive comparisons against seven baseline methods on the VTAB-1K benchmark, which encompasses 19 diverse datasets across various domains with diverse semantics. Empirical results demonstrate that FHBI consistently outperforms the baselines by notable margins, highlighting its practical efficacy.
We develop a decision making framework to cast the problem of learning a ranking policy for search or recommendation engines in a two-sided e-commerce marketplace as an expected reward optimization problem using observational data. As a value allocation mechanism, the ranking policy allocates retrieved items to the designated slots so as to maximize the user utility from the slotted items, at any given stage of the shopping journey. The objective of this allocation can in turn be defined with respect to the underlying probabilistic user browsing model as the expected number of interaction events on presented items matching the user intent, given the ranking context. Through recognizing the effect of ranking as an intervention action to inform users' interactions with slotted items and the corresponding economic value of the interaction events for the marketplace, we formulate the expected reward of the marketplace as the collective value from all presented ranking actions. The key element in this formulation is a notion of context value distribution, which signifies not only the attribution of value to ranking interventions within a session but also the distribution of marketplace reward across user sessions. We build empirical estimates for the expected reward of the marketplace from observational data that account for the heterogeneity of economic value across session contexts as well as the distribution shifts in learning from observational user activity data. The ranking policy can then be trained by optimizing the empirical expected reward estimates via standard Bayesian inference techniques. We report empirical results for a product search ranking task in a major e-commerce platform demonstrating the fundamental trade-offs governed by ranking polices trained on empirical reward estimates with respect to extreme choices of the context value distribution.
Constrained optimization problems arise in various engineering systems such as inventory management and power grids. Standard deep neural network (DNN) based machine learning proxies are ineffective in practical settings where labeled data is scarce and training times are limited. We propose a semi-supervised Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) based optimization proxy for this complex regime, wherein training commences in a sandwiched fashion, alternating between a supervised learning step for minimizing cost, and an unsupervised learning step for enforcing constraint feasibility. We show that the proposed semi-supervised BNN outperforms DNN architectures on important non-convex constrained optimization problems from energy network operations, achieving up to a tenfold reduction in expected maximum equality gap and halving the inequality gaps. Further, the BNN's ability to provide posterior samples is leveraged to construct practically meaningful probabilistic confidence bounds on performance using a limited validation data, unlike prior methods. The implementation code for this study is available at: https://github.com/kaarthiksundar/BNN-OPF/.
Based on the framework of Conformal Prediction (CP), we study the online construction of valid confidence sets given a black-box machine learning model. By converting the target confidence levels into quantile levels, the problem can be reduced to predicting the quantiles (in hindsight) of a sequentially revealed data sequence. Two very different approaches have been studied previously. (i) Direct approach: Assuming the data sequence is iid or exchangeable, one could maintain the empirical distribution of the observed data as an algorithmic belief, and directly predict its quantiles. (ii) Indirect approach: As statistical assumptions often do not hold in practice, a recent trend is to consider the adversarial setting and apply first-order online optimization to moving quantile losses (Gibbs & Cand\`es, 2021). It requires knowing the target quantile level beforehand, and suffers from certain validity issues on the obtained confidence sets, due to the associated loss linearization. This paper presents a novel Bayesian CP framework that combines their strengths. Without any statistical assumption, it is able to both: (i) answer multiple arbitrary confidence level queries online, with provably low regret; and (ii) overcome the validity issues suffered by first-order optimization baselines, due to being "data-centric" rather than "iterate-centric". From a technical perspective, our key idea is to regularize the algorithmic belief of the above direct approach by a Bayesian prior, which "robustifies" it by simulating a non-linearized Follow the Regularized Leader (FTRL) algorithm on the output. For statisticians, this can be regarded as an online adversarial view of Bayesian inference. Importantly, the proposed belief update backbone is shared by prediction heads targeting different confidence levels, bringing practical benefits analogous to U-calibration (Kleinberg et al., 2023).
A fully Bayesian treatment of complicated predictive models (such as deep neural networks) would enable rigorous uncertainty quantification and the automation of higher-level tasks including model selection. However, the intractability of sampling Bayesian posteriors over many parameters inhibits the use of Bayesian methods where they are most needed. Thermodynamic computing has emerged as a paradigm for accelerating operations used in machine learning, such as matrix inversion, and is based on the mapping of Langevin equations to the dynamics of noisy physical systems. Hence, it is natural to consider the implementation of Langevin sampling algorithms on thermodynamic devices. In this work we propose electronic analog devices that sample from Bayesian posteriors by realizing Langevin dynamics physically. Circuit designs are given for sampling the posterior of a Gaussian-Gaussian model and for Bayesian logistic regression, and are validated by simulations. It is shown, under reasonable assumptions, that the Bayesian posteriors for these models can be sampled in time scaling with $\ln(d)$, where $d$ is dimension. For the Gaussian-Gaussian model, the energy cost is shown to scale with $ d \ln(d)$. These results highlight the potential for fast, energy-efficient Bayesian inference using thermodynamic computing.
Active inference is a mathematical framework for understanding how agents (biological or artificial) interact with their environments, enabling continual adaptation and decision-making. It combines Bayesian inference and free energy minimization to model perception, action, and learning in uncertain and dynamic contexts. Unlike reinforcement learning, active inference integrates exploration and exploitation seamlessly by minimizing expected free energy. In this paper, we present a continual learning framework for agents operating in discrete time environments, using active inference as the foundation. We derive the mathematical formulations of variational and expected free energy and apply them to the design of a self-learning research agent. This agent updates its beliefs and adapts its actions based on new data without manual intervention. Through experiments in changing environments, we demonstrate the agent's ability to relearn and refine its models efficiently, making it suitable for complex domains like finance and healthcare. The paper concludes by discussing how the proposed framework generalizes to other systems, positioning active inference as a flexible approach for adaptive AI.
Geological Carbon Storage GCS is arguably the only scalable net-negative CO2 emission technology available While promising subsurface complexities and heterogeneity of reservoir properties demand a systematic approach to quantify uncertainty when optimizing production and mitigating storage risks which include assurances of Containment and Conformance of injected supercritical CO2 As a first step towards the design and implementation of a Digital Twin for monitoring underground storage operations a machine learning based data-assimilation framework is introduced and validated on carefully designed realistic numerical simulations As our implementation is based on Bayesian inference but does not yet support control and decision-making we coin our approach an uncertainty-aware Digital Shadow To characterize the posterior distribution for the state of CO2 plumes conditioned on multi-modal time-lapse data the envisioned Shadow combines techniques from Simulation-Based Inference SBI and Ensemble Bayesian Filtering to establish probabilistic baselines and assimilate multi-modal data for GCS problems that are challenged by large degrees of freedom nonlinear multi-physics non-Gaussianity and computationally expensive to evaluate fluid flow and seismic simulations To enable SBI for dynamic systems a recursive scheme is proposed where the Digital Shadows neural networks are trained on simulated ensembles for their state and observed data well and/or seismic Once training is completed the systems state is inferred when time-lapse field data becomes available In this computational study we observe that a lack of knowledge on the permeability field can be factored into the Digital Shadows uncertainty quantification To our knowledge this work represents the first proof of concept of an uncertainty-aware in-principle scalable Digital Shadow.
Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) describes an emerging family of methods for Bayesian inference with intractable likelihood functions that use neural networks as surrogate models. Here we introduce sbijax, a Python package that implements a wide variety of state-of-the-art methods in neural simulation-based inference using a user-friendly programming interface. sbijax offers high-level functionality to quickly construct SBI estimators, and compute and visualize posterior distributions with only a few lines of code. In addition, the package provides functionality for conventional approximate Bayesian computation, to compute model diagnostics, and to automatically estimate summary statistics. By virtue of being entirely written in JAX, sbijax is extremely computationally efficient, allowing rapid training of neural networks and executing code automatically in parallel on both CPU and GPU.
Sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal distributions remains a fundamental challenge across domains such as statistical Bayesian inference and physics-based machine learning. In this paper, we propose Annealing Flow (AF), a method built on Continuous Normalizing Flow (CNF) for sampling from high-dimensional and multi-modal distributions. AF is trained with a dynamic Optimal Transport (OT) objective incorporating Wasserstein regularization, and guided by annealing procedures, facilitating effective exploration of modes in high-dimensional spaces. Compared to recent NF methods, AF greatly improves training efficiency and stability, with minimal reliance on MC assistance. We demonstrate the superior performance of AF compared to state-of-the-art methods through experiments on various challenging distributions and real-world datasets, particularly in high-dimensional and multi-modal settings. We also highlight AF potential for sampling the least favorable distributions.
In the last few years, economic agent-based models have made the transition from qualitative models calibrated to match stylised facts to quantitative models for time series forecasting, and in some cases, their predictions have performed as well or better than those of standard models (see, e.g. Poledna et al. (2023a); Hommes et al. (2022); Pichler et al. (2022)). Here, we build on the model of Poledna et al., adding several new features such as housing markets, realistic synthetic populations of individuals with income, wealth and consumption heterogeneity, enhanced behavioural rules and market mechanisms, and an enhanced credit market. We calibrate our model for all 38 OECD member countries using state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian inference methods and test it by making out-of-sample forecasts. It outperforms both the Poledna and AR(1) time series models by a highly statistically significant margin. Our model is built within a platform we have developed, making it easy to build, run, and evaluate alternative models, which we hope will encourage future work in this area.
For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare a wide range of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling techniques to determine their relative efficacy on functions that resemble those encountered most frequently in the particle astrophysics literature. Our first series of tests explores a series of high-dimensional analytic test functions that exemplify particular challenges, for example highly multimodal posteriors or posteriors with curving degeneracies. We then investigate two real physics examples, the first being a global fit of the $\Lambda$CDM model using cosmic microwave background data from the Planck experiment, and the second being a global fit of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model using a wide variety of collider and astrophysics data. We show that several examples widely thought to be most easily solved using nested sampling approaches can in fact be more efficiently solved using modern MCMC algorithms, but the details of the implementation matter. Furthermore, we also provide a series of useful insights for practitioners of particle astrophysics and cosmology.
Classical parameter-space Bayesian inference for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) suffers from several unresolved prior issues, such as knowledge encoding intractability and pathological behaviours in deep networks, which can lead to improper posterior inference. To address these issues, functional Bayesian inference has recently been proposed leveraging functional priors, such as the emerging functional variational inference. In addition to variational methods, stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is another scalable and effective inference method for BNNs to asymptotically generate samples from the true posterior by simulating continuous dynamics. However, existing MCMC methods perform solely in parameter space and inherit the unresolved prior issues, while extending these dynamics to function space is a non-trivial undertaking. In this paper, we introduce novel functional MCMC schemes, including stochastic gradient versions, based on newly designed diffusion dynamics that can incorporate more informative functional priors. Moreover, we prove that the stationary measure of these functional dynamics is the target posterior over functions. Our functional MCMC schemes demonstrate improved performance in both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification on several tasks compared to naive parameter-space MCMC and functional variational inference.
State-of-the-art computer vision tasks, like monocular depth estimation (MDE), rely heavily on large, modern Transformer-based architectures. However, their application in safety-critical domains demands reliable predictive performance and uncertainty quantification. While Bayesian neural networks provide a conceptually simple approach to serve those requirements, they suffer from the high dimensionality of the parameter space. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methods, in particular low-rank adaptations (LoRA), have emerged as a popular strategy for adapting large-scale models to down-stream tasks by performing parameter inference on lower-dimensional subspaces. In this work, we investigate the suitability of PEFT methods for subspace Bayesian inference in large-scale Transformer-based vision models. We show that, indeed, combining BitFit, DiffFit, LoRA, and CoLoRA, a novel LoRA-inspired PEFT method, with Bayesian inference enables more robust and reliable predictive performance in MDE.
Error accumulation is an essential component of the Top-$k$ sparsification method in distributed gradient descent. It implicitly scales the learning rate and prevents the slow-down of lateral movement, but it can also deteriorate convergence. This paper proposes a novel sparsification algorithm called regularized Top-$k$ (RegTop-$k$) that controls the learning rate scaling of error accumulation. The algorithm is developed by looking at the gradient sparsification as an inference problem and determining a Bayesian optimal sparsification mask via maximum-a-posteriori estimation. It utilizes past aggregated gradients to evaluate posterior statistics, based on which it prioritizes the local gradient entries. Numerical experiments with ResNet-18 on CIFAR-10 show that at $0.1\%$ sparsification, RegTop-$k$ achieves about $8\%$ higher accuracy than standard Top-$k$.
Much of Bayesian inference centers around the design of estimators for inverse problems which are optimal assuming the data comes from a known prior. But what do these optimality guarantees mean if the prior is unknown? In recent years, algorithm unrolling has emerged as deep learning's answer to this age-old question: design a neural network whose layers can in principle simulate iterations of inference algorithms and train on data generated by the unknown prior. Despite its empirical success, however, it has remained unclear whether this method can provably recover the performance of its optimal, prior-aware counterparts. In this work, we prove the first rigorous learning guarantees for neural networks based on unrolling approximate message passing (AMP). For compressed sensing, we prove that when trained on data drawn from a product prior, the layers of the network approximately converge to the same denoisers used in Bayes AMP. We also provide extensive numerical experiments for compressed sensing and rank-one matrix estimation demonstrating the advantages of our unrolled architecture - in addition to being able to obliviously adapt to general priors, it exhibits improvements over Bayes AMP in more general settings of low dimensions, non-Gaussian designs, and non-product priors.
Intelligent real-world systems critically depend on expressive information about their system state and changing operation conditions, e.g., due to variation in temperature, location, wear, or aging. To provide this information, online inference and learning attempts to perform state estimation and (partial) system identification simultaneously. Current works combine tailored estimation schemes with flexible learning-based models but suffer from convergence problems and computational complexity due to many degrees of freedom in the inference problem (i.e., parameters to determine). To resolve these issues, we propose a procedure for data-driven offline conditioning of a highly flexible Gaussian Process (GP) formulation such that online learning is restricted to a subspace, spanned by expressive basis functions. Due to the simplicity of the transformed problem, a standard particle filter can be employed for Bayesian inference. In contrast to most existing works, the proposed method enables online learning of target functions that are nested nonlinearly inside a first-principles model. Moreover, we provide a theoretical quantification of the error, introduced by restricting learning to a subspace. A Monte-Carlo simulation study with a nonlinear battery model shows that the proposed approach enables rapid convergence with significantly fewer particles compared to a baseline and a state-of-the-art method.