We address quality assessment for neural network based ASR by providing explanations that help increase our understanding of the system and ultimately help build trust in the system. Compared to simple classification labels, explaining transcriptions is more challenging as judging their correctness is not straightforward and transcriptions as a variable-length sequence is not handled by existing interpretable machine learning models. We provide an explanation for an ASR transcription as a subset of audio frames that is both a minimal and sufficient cause of the transcription. To do this, we adapt existing explainable AI (XAI) techniques from image classification-Statistical Fault Localisation(SFL) and Causal. Additionally, we use an adapted version of Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) for ASR as a baseline in our experiments. We evaluate the quality of the explanations generated by the proposed techniques over three different ASR ,Google API, the baseline model of Sphinx, Deepspeech and 100 audio samples from the Commonvoice dataset.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have shown exceptional performances in a wide range of tasks and have become the go-to method for problems requiring high-level predictive power. There has been extensive research on how DNNs arrive at their decisions, however, the inherently uninterpretable networks remain up to this day mostly unobservable "black boxes". In recent years, the field has seen a push towards interpretable neural networks, such as the visually interpretable Neural Additive Models (NAMs). We propose a further step into the direction of intelligibility beyond the mere visualization of feature effects and propose Structural Neural Additive Models (SNAMs). A modeling framework that combines classical and clearly interpretable statistical methods with the predictive power of neural applications. Our experiments validate the predictive performances of SNAMs. The proposed framework performs comparable to state-of-the-art fully connected DNNs and we show that SNAMs can even outperform NAMs while remaining inherently more interpretable.
This chapter presents a practical guide for conducting Sentiment Analysis using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques in the domain of tick-borne disease text. The aim is to demonstrate the process of how the presence of bias in the discourse surrounding chronic manifestations of the disease can be evaluated. The goal is to use a dataset of 5643 abstracts collected from scientific journals on the topic of chronic Lyme disease to demonstrate using Python, the steps for conducting sentiment analysis using pre-trained language models and the process of validating the preliminary results using both interpretable machine learning tools, as well as a novel methodology of using emerging state-of-the-art large language models like ChatGPT. This serves as a useful resource for researchers and practitioners interested in using NLP techniques for sentiment analysis in the medical domain.
This paper presents a data-driven interpretable machine learning algorithm for semi-static hedging of Exchange Traded options, considering transaction costs with efficient run-time. Further, we provide empirical evidence on the performance of hedging longer-term National Stock Exchange (NSE) Index options using a self-replicating portfolio of shorter-term options and cash position, achieved by the automated algorithm, under different modeling assumptions and market conditions, including Covid period. We also systematically assess the model's performance using the Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test by benchmarking against the static hedge proposed by Peter Carr and Liuren Wu and industry-standard dynamic hedging. We finally perform a thorough Profit and Loss (PnL) attribution analysis on the target option and hedge portfolios (dynamic and static) to discern the factors explaining the superior performance of static hedging.
For the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) in high-risk settings, such as healthcare, methods that provide interpretability/explainability or allow fine-grained error analysis are critical. Many recent methods for interpretability/explainability and fine-grained error analysis use concepts, which are meta-labels that are semantically meaningful to humans. However, there are only a few datasets that include concept-level meta-labels and most of these meta-labels are relevant for natural images that do not require domain expertise. Densely annotated datasets in medicine focused on meta-labels that are relevant to a single disease such as melanoma. In dermatology, skin disease is described using an established clinical lexicon that allows clinicians to describe physical exam findings to one another. To provide a medical dataset densely annotated by domain experts with annotations useful across multiple disease processes, we developed SkinCon: a skin disease dataset densely annotated by dermatologists. SkinCon includes 3230 images from the Fitzpatrick 17k dataset densely annotated with 48 clinical concepts, 22 of which have at least 50 images representing the concept. The concepts used were chosen by two dermatologists considering the clinical descriptor terms used to describe skin lesions. Examples include "plaque", "scale", and "erosion". The same concepts were also used to label 656 skin disease images from the Diverse Dermatology Images dataset, providing an additional external dataset with diverse skin tone representations. We review the potential applications for the SkinCon dataset, such as probing models, concept-based explanations, and concept bottlenecks. Furthermore, we use SkinCon to demonstrate two of these use cases: debugging mistakes of an existing dermatology AI model with concepts and developing interpretable models with post-hoc concept bottleneck models.
Detecting Parkinson's Disease in its early stages using EEG data presents a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach, representing EEG data as a 15-variate series of bandpower and peak frequency values/coefficients. The hypothesis is that this representation captures essential information from the noisy EEG signal, improving disease detection. Statistical features extracted from this representation are utilised as input for interpretable machine learning models, specifically Decision Tree and AdaBoost classifiers. Our classification pipeline is deployed within our proposed framework which enables high-importance data types and brain regions for classification to be identified. Interestingly, our analysis reveals that while there is no significant regional importance, the N1 sleep data type exhibits statistically significant predictive power (p < 0.01) for early-stage Parkinson's Disease classification. AdaBoost classifiers trained on the N1 data type consistently outperform baseline models, achieving over 80% accuracy and recall. Our classification pipeline statistically significantly outperforms baseline models indicating that the model has acquired useful information. Paired with the interpretability (ability to view feature importance's) of our pipeline this enables us to generate meaningful insights into the classification of early stage Parkinson's with our N1 models. In Future, these models could be deployed in the real world - the results presented in this paper indicate that more than 3 in 4 early-stage Parkinson's cases would be captured with our pipeline.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and Machine learning (ML) are increasingly used in energy and engineering systems, but these models must be fair, unbiased, and explainable. It is critical to have confidence in AI's trustworthiness. ML techniques have been useful in predicting important parameters and in improving model performance. However, for these AI techniques to be useful for making decisions, they need to be audited, accounted for, and easy to understand. Therefore, the use of explainable AI (XAI) and interpretable machine learning (IML) is crucial for the accurate prediction of prognostics, such as remaining useful life (RUL), in a digital twin system, to make it intelligent while ensuring that the AI model is transparent in its decision-making processes and that the predictions it generates can be understood and trusted by users. By using AI that is explainable, interpretable, and trustworthy, intelligent digital twin systems can make more accurate predictions of RUL, leading to better maintenance and repair planning, and ultimately, improved system performance. The objective of this paper is to explain the ideas of XAI and IML and to justify the important role of AI/ML in the digital twin framework and components, which requires XAI to understand the prediction better. This paper explains the importance of XAI and IML in both local and global aspects to ensure the use of trustworthy AI/ML applications for RUL prediction. We used the RUL prediction for the XAI and IML studies and leveraged the integrated Python toolbox for interpretable machine learning~(PiML).
Prototypical part network (ProtoPNet) methods have been designed to achieve interpretable classification by associating predictions with a set of training prototypes, which we refer to as trivial prototypes because they are trained to lie far from the classification boundary in the feature space. Note that it is possible to make an analogy between ProtoPNet and support vector machine (SVM) given that the classification from both methods relies on computing similarity with a set of training points (i.e., trivial prototypes in ProtoPNet, and support vectors in SVM). However, while trivial prototypes are located far from the classification boundary, support vectors are located close to this boundary, and we argue that this discrepancy with the well-established SVM theory can result in ProtoPNet models with inferior classification accuracy. In this paper, we aim to improve the classification of ProtoPNet with a new method to learn support prototypes that lie near the classification boundary in the feature space, as suggested by the SVM theory. In addition, we target the improvement of classification results with a new model, named ST-ProtoPNet, which exploits our support prototypes and the trivial prototypes to provide more effective classification. Experimental results on CUB-200-2011, Stanford Cars, and Stanford Dogs datasets demonstrate that ST-ProtoPNet achieves state-of-the-art classification accuracy and interpretability results. We also show that the proposed support prototypes tend to be better localised in the object of interest rather than in the background region.
Considering the profound transformation affecting pathology practice, we aimed to develop a scalable artificial intelligence (AI) system to diagnose colorectal cancer from whole-slide images (WSI). For this, we propose a deep learning (DL) system that learns from weak labels, a sampling strategy that reduces the number of training samples by a factor of six without compromising performance, an approach to leverage a small subset of fully annotated samples, and a prototype with explainable predictions, active learning features and parallelisation. Noting some problems in the literature, this study is conducted with one of the largest WSI colorectal samples dataset with approximately 10,500 WSIs. Of these samples, 900 are testing samples. Furthermore, the robustness of the proposed method is assessed with two additional external datasets (TCGA and PAIP) and a dataset of samples collected directly from the proposed prototype. Our proposed method predicts, for the patch-based tiles, a class based on the severity of the dysplasia and uses that information to classify the whole slide. It is trained with an interpretable mixed-supervision scheme to leverage the domain knowledge introduced by pathologists through spatial annotations. The mixed-supervision scheme allowed for an intelligent sampling strategy effectively evaluated in several different scenarios without compromising the performance. On the internal dataset, the method shows an accuracy of 93.44% and a sensitivity between positive (low-grade and high-grade dysplasia) and non-neoplastic samples of 0.996. On the external test samples varied with TCGA being the most challenging dataset with an overall accuracy of 84.91% and a sensitivity of 0.996.
Machine learning approaches are widely studied in the production prediction of CBM wells after hydraulic fracturing, but merely used in practice due to the low generalization ability and the lack of interpretability. A novel methodology is proposed in this article to discover the latent causality from observed data, which is aimed at finding an indirect way to interpret the machine learning results. Based on the theory of causal discovery, a causal graph is derived with explicit input, output, treatment and confounding variables. Then, SHAP is employed to analyze the influence of the factors on the production capability, which indirectly interprets the machine learning models. The proposed method can capture the underlying nonlinear relationship between the factors and the output, which remedies the limitation of the traditional machine learning routines based on the correlation analysis of factors. The experiment on the data of CBM shows that the detected relationship between the production and the geological/engineering factors by the presented method, is coincident with the actual physical mechanism. Meanwhile, compared with traditional methods, the interpretable machine learning models have better performance in forecasting production capability, averaging 20% improvement in accuracy.
As of 2022, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reporting and auditing are not yet compulsory for all companies and methodologies of measurement and estimation are not unified. We propose a machine learning-based model to estimate scope 1 and scope 2 GHG emissions of companies not reporting them yet. Our model, specifically designed to be transparent and completely adapted to this use case, is able to estimate emissions for a large universe of companies. It shows good out-of-sample global performances as well as good out-of-sample granular performances when evaluating it by sectors, by countries or by revenues buckets. We also compare our results to those of other providers and find our estimates to be more accurate. Thanks to the proposed explainability tools using Shapley values, our model is fully interpretable, the user being able to understand which factors split explain the GHG emissions for each particular company.
Current practice in interpretable machine learning often focuses on explaining the final model trained from data, e.g., by using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method. The recently developed Shapley variable importance cloud (ShapleyVIC) extends the current practice to a group of "nearly optimal models" to provide comprehensive and robust variable importance assessments, with estimated uncertainty intervals for a more complete understanding of variable contributions to predictions. ShapleyVIC was initially developed for applications with traditional regression models, and the benefits of ShapleyVIC inference have been demonstrated in real-life prediction tasks using the logistic regression model. However, as a model-agnostic approach, ShapleyVIC application is not limited to such scenarios. In this work, we extend ShapleyVIC implementation for machine learning models to enable wider applications, and propose it as a useful complement to the current SHAP analysis to enable more trustworthy applications of these black-box models.
We propose a novel model agnostic data-driven reliability analysis framework for time-dependent reliability analysis. The proposed approach -- referred to as MAntRA -- combines interpretable machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and identifying stochastic dynamic equation to evaluate reliability of stochastically-excited dynamical systems for which the governing physics is \textit{apriori} unknown. A two-stage approach is adopted: in the first stage, an efficient variational Bayesian equation discovery algorithm is developed to determine the governing physics of an underlying stochastic differential equation (SDE) from measured output data. The developed algorithm is efficient and accounts for epistemic uncertainty due to limited and noisy data, and aleatoric uncertainty because of environmental effect and external excitation. In the second stage, the discovered SDE is solved using a stochastic integration scheme and the probability failure is computed. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated on three numerical examples. The results obtained indicate the possible application of the proposed approach for reliability analysis of in-situ and heritage structures from on-site measurements.
Bayesian networks (BNs) are attractive, because they are graphical and interpretable machine learning models. However, exact inference on BNs is time-consuming, especially for complex problems. To improve the efficiency, we propose a fast BN exact inference solution named Fast-BNI on multi-core CPUs. Fast-BNI enhances the efficiency of exact inference through hybrid parallelism that tightly integrates coarse- and fine-grained parallelism. We also propose techniques to further simplify the bottleneck operations of BN exact inference. Fast-BNI source code is freely available at https://github.com/jjiantong/FastBN.
Interpretability is a pressing issue for machine learning. Common approaches to interpretable machine learning constrain interactions between features of the input, rendering the effects of those features on a model's output comprehensible but at the expense of model complexity. We approach interpretability from a new angle: constrain the information about the features without restricting the complexity of the model. Borrowing from information theory, we use the Distributed Information Bottleneck to find optimal compressions of each feature that maximally preserve information about the output. The learned information allocation, by feature and by feature value, provides rich opportunities for interpretation, particularly in problems with many features and complex feature interactions. The central object of analysis is not a single trained model, but rather a spectrum of models serving as approximations that leverage variable amounts of information about the inputs. Information is allocated to features by their relevance to the output, thereby solving the problem of feature selection by constructing a learned continuum of feature inclusion-to-exclusion. The optimal compression of each feature -- at every stage of approximation -- allows fine-grained inspection of the distinctions among feature values that are most impactful for prediction. We develop a framework for extracting insight from the spectrum of approximate models and demonstrate its utility on a range of tabular datasets.
This work introduces a novel interpretable machine learning method called Mixture of Decision Trees (MoDT). It constitutes a special case of the Mixture of Experts ensemble architecture, which utilizes a linear model as gating function and decision trees as experts. Our proposed method is ideally suited for problems that cannot be satisfactorily learned by a single decision tree, but which can alternatively be divided into subproblems. Each subproblem can then be learned well from a single decision tree. Therefore, MoDT can be considered as a method that improves performance while maintaining interpretability by making each of its decisions understandable and traceable to humans. Our work is accompanied by a Python implementation, which uses an interpretable gating function, a fast learning algorithm, and a direct interface to fine-tuned interpretable visualization methods. The experiments confirm that the implementation works and, more importantly, show the superiority of our approach compared to single decision trees and random forests of similar complexity.
Explaining the behaviors of deep neural networks, usually considered as black boxes, is critical especially when they are now being adopted over diverse aspects of human life. Taking the advantages of interpretable machine learning (interpretable ML), this work proposes a novel tool called Catastrophic Forgetting Dissector (or CFD) to explain catastrophic forgetting in continual learning settings. We also introduce a new method called Critical Freezing based on the observations of our tool. Experiments on ResNet articulate how catastrophic forgetting happens, particularly showing which components of this famous network are forgetting. Our new continual learning algorithm defeats various recent techniques by a significant margin, proving the capability of the investigation. Critical freezing not only attacks catastrophic forgetting but also exposes explainability.
Model distillation has been a popular method for producing interpretable machine learning. It uses an interpretable "student" model to mimic the predictions made by the black box "teacher" model. However, when the student model is sensitive to the variability of the data sets used for training even when keeping the teacher fixed, the corresponded interpretation is not reliable. Existing strategies stabilize model distillation by checking whether a large enough corpus of pseudo-data is generated to reliably reproduce student models, but methods to do so have so far been developed for a specific student model. In this paper, we develop a generic approach for stable model distillation based on central limit theorem for the average loss. We start with a collection of candidate student models and search for candidates that reasonably agree with the teacher. Then we construct a multiple testing framework to select a corpus size such that the consistent student model would be selected under different pseudo samples. We demonstrate the application of our proposed approach on three commonly used intelligible models: decision trees, falling rule lists and symbolic regression. Finally, we conduct simulation experiments on Mammographic Mass and Breast Cancer datasets and illustrate the testing procedure throughout a theoretical analysis with Markov process. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/yunzhe-zhou/GenericDistillation.
Big streams of Earth images from satellites or other platforms (e.g., drones and mobile phones) are becoming increasingly available at low or no cost and with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution. This thesis recognizes the unprecedented opportunities offered by the high quality and open access Earth observation data of our times and introduces novel machine learning and big data methods to properly exploit them towards developing applications for sustainable and resilient agriculture. The thesis addresses three distinct thematic areas, i.e., the monitoring of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the monitoring of food security and applications for smart and resilient agriculture. The methodological innovations of the developments related to the three thematic areas address the following issues: i) the processing of big Earth Observation (EO) data, ii) the scarcity of annotated data for machine learning model training and iii) the gap between machine learning outputs and actionable advice. This thesis demonstrated how big data technologies such as data cubes, distributed learning, linked open data and semantic enrichment can be used to exploit the data deluge and extract knowledge to address real user needs. Furthermore, this thesis argues for the importance of semi-supervised and unsupervised machine learning models that circumvent the ever-present challenge of scarce annotations and thus allow for model generalization in space and time. Specifically, it is shown how merely few ground truth data are needed to generate high quality crop type maps and crop phenology estimations. Finally, this thesis argues there is considerable distance in value between model inferences and decision making in real-world scenarios and thereby showcases the power of causal and interpretable machine learning in bridging this gap.
Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small perturbations of that instance that allows changing the classification outcome. This work aims to leverage Counterfactual Explanations to detect the important decision boundaries of a pre-trained black-box model. This information is used to build a supervised discretization of the features in the dataset with a tunable granularity. Using the discretized dataset, an optimal Decision Tree can be trained that resembles the black-box model, but that is interpretable and compact. Numerical results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the approach in terms of accuracy and sparsity.