This paper studies how to construct confidence regions for principal component analysis (PCA) in high dimension, a problem that has been vastly under-explored. While computing measures of uncertainty for nonlinear/nonconvex estimators is in general difficult in high dimension, the challenge is further compounded by the prevalent presence of missing data and heteroskedastic noise. We propose a novel approach to performing valid inference on the principal subspace under a spiked covariance model with missing data, on the basis of an estimator called HeteroPCA (Zhang et al., 2022). We develop non-asymptotic distributional guarantees for HeteroPCA, and demonstrate how these can be invoked to compute both confidence regions for the principal subspace and entrywise confidence intervals for the spiked covariance matrix. Our inference procedures are fully data-driven and adaptive to heteroskedastic random noise, without requiring prior knowledge about the noise levels.
Scene video text spotting (SVTS) is a very important research topic because of many real-life applications. However, only a little effort has put to spotting scene video text, in contrast to massive studies of scene text spotting in static images. Due to various environmental interferences like motion blur, spotting scene video text becomes very challenging. To promote this research area, this competition introduces a new challenge dataset containing 129 video clips from 21 natural scenarios in full annotations. The competition containts three tasks, that is, video text detection (Task 1), video text tracking (Task 2) and end-to-end video text spotting (Task3). During the competition period (opened on 1st March, 2021 and closed on 11th April, 2021), a total of 24 teams participated in the three proposed tasks with 46 valid submissions, respectively. This paper includes dataset descriptions, task definitions, evaluation protocols and results summaries of the ICDAR 2021 on SVTS competition. Thanks to the healthy number of teams as well as submissions, we consider that the SVTS competition has been successfully held, drawing much attention from the community and promoting the field research and its development.
This paper proposes the CogSense system, which is inspired by sense-making cognition and perception in the mammalian brain to perform perception error detection and perception parameter adaptation using probabilistic signal temporal logic. As a specific application, a contrast-based perception adaption method is presented and validated. The proposed method evaluates perception errors using heterogeneous probe functions computed from the detected objects and subsequently solves a contrast optimization problem to correct perception errors. The CogSense probe functions utilize the characteristics of geometry, dynamics, and detected blob image quality of the objects to develop axioms in a probabilistic signal temporal logic framework. By evaluating these axioms, we can formally verify whether the detections are valid or erroneous. Further, using the CogSense axioms, we generate the probabilistic signal temporal logic-based constraints to finally solve the contrast-based optimization problem to reduce false positives and false negatives.
We propose a novel method to generate fabrication blueprints from images of carpentered items. While 3D reconstruction from images is a well-studied problem, typical approaches produce representations that are ill-suited for computer-aided design and fabrication applications. Our key insight is that fabrication processes define and constrain the design space for carpentered objects, and can be leveraged to develop novel reconstruction methods. Our method makes use of domain-specific constraints to recover not just valid geometry, but a semantically valid assembly of parts, using a combination of image-based and geometric optimization techniques. We demonstrate our method on a variety of wooden objects and furniture, and show that we can automatically obtain designs that are both easy to edit and accurate recreations of the ground truth. We further illustrate how our method can be used to fabricate a physical replica of the captured object as well as a customized version, which can be produced by directly editing the reconstructed model in CAD software.
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the locations of change points in a high-dimensional mean shift model. To that end, we develop a locally refitted least squares estimator and obtain component-wise and simultaneous rates of estimation of the underlying change points. The simultaneous rate is the sharpest available in the literature by at least a factor of $\log p,$ while the component-wise one is optimal. These results enable existence of limiting distributions. Component-wise distributions are characterized under both vanishing and non-vanishing jump size regimes, while joint distributions for any finite subset of change point estimates are characterized under the latter regime, which also yields asymptotic independence of these estimates. The combined results are used to construct asymptotically valid component-wise and simultaneous confidence intervals for the change point parameters. The results are established under a high dimensional scaling, allowing for diminishing jump sizes, in the presence of diverging number of change points and under subexponential errors. They are illustrated on synthetic data and on sensor measurements from smartphones for activity recognition.
Latent variable models are increasingly used in economics for high-dimensional categorical data like text and surveys. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with parallelized automatic differentiation for analyzing such data in a computationally efficient and methodologically sound manner. Our new model, Supervised Topic Model with Covariates, shows that carefully modeling this type of data can have significant implications on conclusions compared to a simpler, frequently used, yet methodologically problematic, two-step approach. A simulation study and revisiting Bandiera et al. (2020)'s study of executive time use demonstrate these results. The approach accommodates thousands of parameters and doesn't require custom algorithms specific to each model, making it accessible for applied researchers
This paper extends the idea of decoupling shrinkage and sparsity for continuous priors to Bayesian Quantile Regression (BQR). The procedure follows two steps: In the first step, we shrink the quantile regression posterior through state of the art continuous priors and in the second step, we sparsify the posterior through an efficient variant of the adaptive lasso, the signal adaptive variable selection (SAVS) algorithm. We propose a new variant of the SAVS which automates the choice of penalisation through quantile specific loss-functions that are valid in high dimensions. We show in large scale simulations that our selection procedure decreases bias irrespective of the true underlying degree of sparsity in the data, compared to the un-sparsified regression posterior. We apply our two-step approach to a high dimensional growth-at-risk (GaR) exercise. The prediction accuracy of the un-sparsified posterior is retained while yielding interpretable quantile specific variable selection results. Our procedure can be used to communicate to policymakers which variables drive downside risk to the macro economy.
This paper presents a topological learning-theoretic perspective on causal inference by introducing a series of topologies defined on general spaces of structural causal models (SCMs). As an illustration of the framework we prove a topological causal hierarchy theorem, showing that substantive assumption-free causal inference is possible only in a meager set of SCMs. Thanks to a known correspondence between open sets in the weak topology and statistically verifiable hypotheses, our results show that inductive assumptions sufficient to license valid causal inferences are statistically unverifiable in principle. Similar to no-free-lunch theorems for statistical inference, the present results clarify the inevitability of substantial assumptions for causal inference. An additional benefit of our topological approach is that it easily accommodates SCMs with infinitely many variables. We finally suggest that the framework may be helpful for the positive project of exploring and assessing alternative causal-inductive assumptions.
The paper proposes chi-square and normal inference methodologies for the unknown coefficient matrix $B^*$ of size $p\times T$ in a Multi-Task (MT) linear model with $p$ covariates, $T$ tasks and $n$ observations under a row-sparse assumption on $B^*$. The row-sparsity $s$, dimension $p$ and number of tasks $T$ are allowed to grow with $n$. In the high-dimensional regime $p\ggg n$, in order to leverage row-sparsity, the MT Lasso is considered. We build upon the MT Lasso with a de-biasing scheme to correct for the bias induced by the penalty. This scheme requires the introduction of a new data-driven object, coined the interaction matrix, that captures effective correlations between noise vector and residuals on different tasks. This matrix is psd, of size $T\times T$ and can be computed efficiently. The interaction matrix lets us derive asymptotic normal and $\chi^2_T$ results under Gaussian design and $\frac{sT+s\log(p/s)}{n}\to0$ which corresponds to consistency in Frobenius norm. These asymptotic distribution results yield valid confidence intervals for single entries of $B^*$ and valid confidence ellipsoids for single rows of $B^*$, for both known and unknown design covariance $\Sigma$. While previous proposals in grouped-variables regression require row-sparsity $s\lesssim\sqrt n$ up to constants depending on $T$ and logarithmic factors in $n,p$, the de-biasing scheme using the interaction matrix provides confidence intervals and $\chi^2_T$ confidence ellipsoids under the conditions ${\min(T^2,\log^8p)}/{n}\to 0$ and $$ \frac{sT+s\log(p/s)+\|\Sigma^{-1}e_j\|_0\log p}{n}\to0, \quad \frac{\min(s,\|\Sigma^{-1}e_j\|_0)}{\sqrt n} \sqrt{[T+\log(p/s)]\log p}\to 0, $$ allowing row-sparsity $s\ggg\sqrt n$ when $\|\Sigma^{-1}e_j\|_0 \sqrt T\lll \sqrt{n}$ up to logarithmic factors.
In bandit multiple hypothesis testing, each arm corresponds to a different null hypothesis that we wish to test, and the goal is to design adaptive algorithms that correctly identify large set of interesting arms (true discoveries), while only mistakenly identifying a few uninteresting ones (false discoveries). One common metric in non-bandit multiple testing is the false discovery rate (FDR). We propose a unified, modular framework for bandit FDR control that emphasizes the decoupling of exploration and summarization of evidence. We utilize the powerful martingale-based concept of "e-processes" to ensure FDR control for arbitrary composite nulls, exploration rules and stopping times in generic problem settings. In particular, valid FDR control holds even if the reward distributions of the arms could be dependent, multiple arms may be queried simultaneously, and multiple (cooperating or competing) agents may be querying arms, covering combinatorial semi-bandit type settings as well. Prior work has considered in great detail the setting where each arm's reward distribution is independent and sub-Gaussian, and a single arm is queried at each step. Our framework recovers matching sample complexity guarantees in this special case, and performs comparably or better in practice. For other settings, sample complexities will depend on the finer details of the problem (composite nulls being tested, exploration algorithm, data dependence structure, stopping rule) and we do not explore these; our contribution is to show that the FDR guarantee is clean and entirely agnostic to these details.
Neural networks have long been used to model human intelligence, capturing elements of behavior and cognition, and their neural basis. Recent advancements in deep learning have enabled neural network models to reach and even surpass human levels of intelligence in many respects, yet unlike humans, their ability to learn new tasks quickly remains a challenge. People can reason not only in familiar domains, but can also rapidly learn to reason through novel problems and situations, raising the question of how well modern neural network models capture human intelligence and in which ways they diverge. In this work, we explore this gap by investigating human adults' ability to learn an abstract reasoning task based on Sudoku from a brief instructional tutorial with explanatory feedback for incorrect responses using a narrow range of training examples. We find that participants who master the task do so within a small number of trials and generalize well to puzzles outside of the training range. We also find that most of those who master the task can describe a valid solution strategy, and such participants perform better on transfer puzzles than those whose strategy descriptions are vague or incomplete. Interestingly, fewer than half of our human participants were successful in acquiring a valid solution strategy, and this ability is associated with high school mathematics education. We consider the challenges these findings pose for building computational models that capture all aspects of our findings and point toward a possible role for learning to engage in explanation-based reasoning to support rapid learning and generalization.
Fake news is a problem faced by society in this era. It is not rare for fake news to cause provocation and problem for the people. Indonesia, as a country with the 4th largest population, has a problem in dealing with fake news. More than 30% of rural and urban population are deceived by this fake news problem. As we have been studying, there is only few literatures on preventing the spread of fake news in Bahasa Indonesia. So, this research is conducted to prevent these problems. The dataset used in this research was obtained from a news portal that identifies fake news, turnbackhoax.id. Using Web Scrapping on this page, we got 1116 data consisting of valid news and fake news. The dataset can be accessed at https://github.com/JibranFawaid/turnbackhoax-dataset. This dataset will be combined with other available datasets. The methods used are CNN, BiLSTM, Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM, and BERT with Transformer Network. This research shows that the BERT method with Transformer Network has the best results with an accuracy of up to 90%.
LiDAR depth maps provide environmental guidance in a variety of applications. However, such depth maps are typically sparse and insufficient for complex tasks such as autonomous navigation. State of the art methods use image guided neural networks for dense depth completion. We develop a guided convolutional neural network focusing on gathering dense and valid information from sparse depth maps. To this end, we introduce a novel layer with spatially variant and content-depended dilation to include additional data from sparse input. Furthermore, we propose a sparsity invariant residual bottleneck block. We evaluate our Dense Validity Mask Network (DVMN) on the KITTI depth completion benchmark and achieve state of the art results. At the time of submission, our network is the leading method using sparsity invariant convolution.
Instrumental variables (IVs), sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome, play an important role in causal inference with unobserved confounders. However, the existing IV-based counterfactual prediction methods need well-predefined IVs, while it is an art rather than science to find valid IVs in many real-world scenes. Moreover, the predefined hand-made IVs could be weak or erroneous by violating the conditions of valid IVs. These thorny facts hinder the application of the IV-based counterfactual prediction methods. In this paper, we propose a novel Automatic Instrumental Variable decomposition (AutoIV) algorithm to automatically generate representations serving the role of IVs from observed variables (IV candidates). Specifically, we let the learned IV representations satisfy the relevance condition with the treatment and exclusion condition with the outcome via mutual information maximization and minimization constraints, respectively. We also learn confounder representations by encouraging them to be relevant to both the treatment and the outcome. The IV and confounder representations compete for the information with their constraints in an adversarial game, which allows us to get valid IV representations for IV-based counterfactual prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method generates valid IV representations for accurate IV-based counterfactual prediction.
In nonseparable triangular models with a binary endogenous treatment and a binary instrumental variable, Vuong and Xu (2017) established identification results for individual treatment effects (ITEs) under the rank invariance assumption. Using their approach, Feng, Vuong, and Xu (2019) proposed a uniformly consistent kernel estimator for the density of the ITE that utilizes estimated ITEs. In this paper, we establish the asymptotic normality of the density estimator of Feng, Vuong, and Xu (2019) and show that the ITE estimation errors have a non-negligible effect on the asymptotic distribution of the estimator. We propose asymptotically valid standard errors that account for ITEs estimation, as well as a bias correction. Furthermore, we develop uniform confidence bands for the density of the ITE using the jackknife multiplier or nonparametric bootstrap critical values.
The fifth Oriental Language Recognition (OLR) Challenge focuses on language recognition in a variety of complex environments to promote its development. The OLR 2020 Challenge includes three tasks: (1) cross-channel language identification, (2) dialect identification, and (3) noisy language identification. We choose Cavg as the principle evaluation metric, and the Equal Error Rate (EER) as the secondary metric. There were 58 teams participating in this challenge and one third of the teams submitted valid results. Compared with the best baseline, the Cavg values of Top 1 system for the three tasks were relatively reduced by 82%, 62% and 48%, respectively. This paper describes the three tasks, the database profile, and the final results. We also outline the novel approaches that improve the performance of language recognition systems most significantly, such as the utilization of auxiliary information.
Deep Neural Networks (DNN) applications are increasingly becoming a part of our everyday life, from medical applications to autonomous cars. Traditional validation of DNN relies on accuracy measures, however, the existence of adversarial examples has highlighted the limitations of these accuracy measures, raising concerns especially when DNN are integrated into safety-critical systems. In this paper, we present HOMRS, an approach to boost metamorphic testing by automatically building a small optimized set of high order metamorphic relations from an initial set of elementary metamorphic relations. HOMRS' backbone is a multi-objective search; it exploits ideas drawn from traditional systems testing such as code coverage, test case, path diversity as well as input validation. We applied HOMRS to MNIST/LeNet and SVHN/VGG and we report evidence that it builds a small but effective set of high-order transformations that generalize well to the input data distribution. Moreover, comparing to similar generation technique such as DeepXplore, we show that our distribution-based approach is more effective, generating valid transformations from an uncertainty quantification point of view, while requiring less computation time by leveraging the generalization ability of the approach.
Property graphs constitute data models for representing knowledge graphs. They allow for the convenient representation of facts, including facts about facts, represented by triples in subject or object position of other triples. Knowledge graphs such as Wikidata are created by a diversity of contributors and a range of sources leaving them prone to two types of errors. The first type of error, falsity of facts, is addressed by property graphs through the representation of provenance and validity, making triples occur as first-order objects in subject position of metadata triples. The second type of error, violation of domain constraints, has not been addressed with regard to property graphs so far. In RDF representations, this error can be addressed by shape languages such as SHACL or ShEx, which allow for checking whether graphs are valid with respect to a set of domain constraints. Borrowing ideas from the syntax and semantics definitions of SHACL, we design a shape language for property graphs, ProGS, which allows for formulating shape constraints on property graphs including their specific constructs, such as edges with identities and key-value annotations to both nodes and edges. We define a formal semantics of ProGS, investigate the resulting complexity of validating property graphs against sets of ProGS shapes, compare with corresponding results for SHACL, and implement a prototypical validator that utilizes answer set programming.
Image registration aims to establish spatial correspondence across pairs, or groups of images, and is a cornerstone of medical image computing and computer-assisted-interventions. Currently, most deep learning-based registration methods assume that the desired deformation fields are globally smooth and continuous, which is not always valid for real-world scenarios, especially in medical image registration (e.g. cardiac imaging and abdominal imaging). Such a global constraint can lead to artefacts and increased errors at discontinuous tissue interfaces. To tackle this issue, we propose a weakly-supervised Deep Discontinuity-preserving Image Registration network (DDIR), to obtain better registration performance and realistic deformation fields. We demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements in registration accuracy and predicts more realistic deformations, in registration experiments on cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) images from UK Biobank Imaging Study (UKBB), than state-of-the-art approaches.
Truly intelligent systems are expected to make critical decisions with incomplete and uncertain data. Active feature acquisition (AFA), where features are sequentially acquired to improve the prediction, is a step towards this goal. However, current AFA models all deal with a small set of candidate features and have difficulty scaling to a large feature space. Moreover, they are ignorant about the valid domains where they can predict confidently, thus they can be vulnerable to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. In order to remedy these deficiencies and bring AFA models closer to practical use, we propose several techniques to advance the current AFA approaches. Our framework can easily handle a large number of features using a hierarchical acquisition policy and is more robust to OOD inputs with the help of an OOD detector for partially observed data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our framework over strong baselines.