The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, highlighted the critical need for accurate prediction of disease severity to optimize healthcare resource allocation and patient management. The spike protein, which facilitates viral entry into host cells, exhibits high mutation rates, particularly in the receptor-binding domain, influencing viral pathogenicity. Artificial intelligence approaches, such as deep learning, offer promising solutions for leveraging genomic and clinical data to predict disease outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop a hybrid CNN-LSTM deep learning model to predict COVID-19 severity using spike protein sequences and associated clinical metadata from South American patients. Methods: We retrieved 9,570 spike protein sequences from the GISAID database, of which 3,467 met inclusion criteria after standardization. The dataset included 2,313 severe and 1,154 mild cases. A feature engineering pipeline extracted features from sequences, while demographic and clinical variables were one-hot encoded. A hybrid CNN-LSTM architecture was trained, combining CNN layers for local pattern extraction and an LSTM layer for long-term dependency modeling. Results: The model achieved an F1 score of 82.92%, ROC-AUC of 0.9084, precision of 83.56%, and recall of 82.85%, demonstrating robust classification performance. Training stabilized at 85% accuracy with minimal overfitting. The most prevalent lineages (P.1, AY.99.2) and clades (GR, GK) aligned with regional epidemiological trends, suggesting potential associations between viral genetics and clinical outcomes. Conclusion: The CNN-LSTM hybrid model effectively predicted COVID-19 severity using spike protein sequences and clinical data, highlighting the utility of AI in genomic surveillance and precision public health. Despite limitations, this approach provides a framework for early severity prediction in future outbreaks.
The COVID-19 pandemic strained healthcare resources and prompted discussion about how machine learning can alleviate physician burdens and contribute to diagnosis. Chest x-rays (CXRs) are used for diagnosis of COVID-19, but few studies predict the severity of a patient's condition from CXRs. In this study, we produce a large COVID severity dataset by merging three sources and investigate the efficacy of transfer learning using ImageNet- and CXR-pretrained models and vision transformers (ViTs) in both severity regression and classification tasks. A pretrained DenseNet161 model performed the best on the three class severity prediction problem, reaching 80% accuracy overall and 77.3%, 83.9%, and 70% on mild, moderate and severe cases, respectively. The ViT had the best regression results, with a mean absolute error of 0.5676 compared to radiologist-predicted severity scores. The project's source code is publicly available.
Biomedical knowledge graphs (KGs) encode rich, structured information critical for drug discovery tasks, but extracting meaningful insights from large-scale KGs remains challenging due to their complex structure. Existing biomedical subgraph retrieval methods are tailored for graph neural networks (GNNs), limiting compatibility with other paradigms, including large language models (LLMs). We introduce K-Paths, a model-agnostic retrieval framework that extracts structured, diverse, and biologically meaningful multi-hop paths from dense biomedical KGs. These paths enable the prediction of unobserved drug-drug and drug-disease interactions, including those involving entities not seen during training, thus supporting inductive reasoning. K-Paths is training-free and employs a diversity-aware adaptation of Yen's algorithm to extract the K shortest loopless paths between entities in a query, prioritizing biologically relevant and relationally diverse connections. These paths serve as concise, interpretable reasoning chains that can be directly integrated with LLMs or GNNs to improve generalization, accuracy, and enable explainable inference. Experiments on benchmark datasets show that K-Paths improves zero-shot reasoning across state-of-the-art LLMs. For instance, Tx-Gemma 27B improves by 19.8 and 4.0 F1 points on interaction severity prediction and drug repurposing tasks, respectively. Llama 70B achieves gains of 8.5 and 6.2 points on the same tasks. K-Paths also boosts the training efficiency of EmerGNN, a state-of-the-art GNN, by reducing the KG size by 90% while maintaining predictive performance. Beyond efficiency, K-Paths bridges the gap between KGs and LLMs, enabling scalable and explainable LLM-augmented scientific discovery. We release our code and the retrieved paths as a benchmark for inductive reasoning.
Rolling element bearings are critical components of rotating machinery, with their performance directly influencing the efficiency and reliability of industrial systems. At the same time, bearing faults are a leading cause of machinery failures, often resulting in costly downtime, reduced productivity, and, in extreme cases, catastrophic damage. This study presents a methodology that utilizes Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks to address these challenges through automatic feature selection, hyperparameter tuning and interpretable fault analysis within a unified framework. By training shallow network architectures and minimizing the number of selected features, the framework produces lightweight models that deliver explainable results through feature attribution and symbolic representations of their activation functions. Validated on two widely recognized datasets for bearing fault diagnosis, the framework achieved perfect F1-Scores for fault detection and high performance in fault and severity classification tasks, including 100% F1-Scores in most cases. Notably, it demonstrated adaptability by handling diverse fault types, such as imbalance and misalignment, within the same dataset. The symbolic representations enhanced model interpretability, while feature attribution offered insights into the optimal feature types or signals for each studied task. These results highlight the framework's potential for practical applications, such as real-time machinery monitoring, and for scientific research requiring efficient and explainable models.
In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning method based on a new Hybrid ConvNet-Transformer architecture to detect and stage Parkinson's disease (PD) from gait data. We adopt a two-step approach by dividing the problem into two sub-problems. Our Hybrid ConvNet-Transformer model first distinguishes healthy versus parkinsonian patients. If the patient is parkinsonian, a multi-class Hybrid ConvNet-Transformer model determines the Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) score to assess the PD severity stage. Our hybrid architecture exploits the strengths of both Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) and Transformers to accurately detect PD and determine the severity stage. In particular, we take advantage of ConvNets to capture local patterns and correlations in the data, while we exploit Transformers for handling long-term dependencies in the input signal. We show that our hybrid method achieves superior performance when compared to other state-of-the-art methods, with a PD detection accuracy of 97% and a severity staging accuracy of 87%. Our source code is available at: https://github.com/SafwenNaimi
Many variables of interest in clinical medicine, like disease severity, are recorded using discrete ordinal categories such as normal/mild/moderate/severe. These labels are used to train and evaluate disease severity prediction models. However, ordinal categories represent a simplification of an underlying continuous severity spectrum. Using continuous scores instead of ordinal categories is more sensitive to detecting small changes in disease severity over time. Here, we present a generalized framework that accurately predicts continuously valued variables using only discrete ordinal labels during model development. We found that for three clinical prediction tasks, models that take the ordinal relationship of the training labels into account outperformed conventional multi-class classification models. Particularly the continuous scores generated by ordinal classification and regression models showed a significantly higher correlation with expert rankings of disease severity and lower mean squared errors compared to the multi-class classification models. Furthermore, the use of MC dropout significantly improved the ability of all evaluated deep learning approaches to predict continuously valued scores that truthfully reflect the underlying continuous target variable. We showed that accurate continuously valued predictions can be generated even if the model development only involves discrete ordinal labels. The novel framework has been validated on three different clinical prediction tasks and has proven to bridge the gap between discrete ordinal labels and the underlying continuously valued variables.
Chest X-rays have been widely used for COVID-19 screening; however, 3D computed tomography (CT) is a more effective modality. We present our findings on COVID-19 severity prediction from chest CT scans using the STOIC dataset. We developed an ensemble deep learning based model that incorporates multiple neural networks to improve predictions. To address data imbalance, we used slicing functions and data augmentation. We further improved performance using test time data augmentation. Our approach which employs a simple yet effective ensemble of deep learning-based models with strong test time augmentations, achieved results comparable to more complex methods and secured the fourth position in the STOIC2021 COVID-19 AI Challenge. Our code is available on online: at: https://github.com/aleemsidra/stoic2021- baseline-finalphase-main.
Road safety is a major global public health concern. Effective traffic crash prediction can play a critical role in reducing road traffic accidents. However, Existing machine learning approaches tend to focus on predicting traffic accidents in isolation, without considering the potential relationships between different accident locations within road networks. To incorporate graph structure information, graph-based approaches such as Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can be naturally applied. However, applying GNNs to the accident prediction problem faces challenges due to the lack of suitable graph-structured traffic accident datasets. To bridge this gap, we have constructed a real-world graph-based Traffic Accident Prediction (TAP) data repository, along with two representative tasks: accident occurrence prediction and accident severity prediction. With nationwide coverage, real-world network topology, and rich geospatial features, this data repository can be used for a variety of traffic-related tasks. We further comprehensively evaluate eleven state-of-the-art GNN variants and two non-graph-based machine learning methods using the created datasets. Significantly facilitated by the proposed data, we develop a novel Traffic Accident Vulnerability Estimation via Linkage (TRAVEL) model, which is designed to capture angular and directional information from road networks. We demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms the baselines. The data and code are available on GitHub (https://github.com/baixianghuang/travel).
As hospitals move towards automating and integrating their computing systems, more fine-grained hospital operations data are becoming available. These data include hospital architectural drawings, logs of interactions between patients and healthcare professionals, prescription data, procedures data, and data on patient admission, discharge, and transfers. This has opened up many fascinating avenues for healthcare-related prediction tasks for improving patient care. However, in order to leverage off-the-shelf machine learning software for these tasks, one needs to learn structured representations of entities involved from heterogeneous, dynamic data streams. Here, we propose DECENT, an auto-encoding heterogeneous co-evolving dynamic neural network, for learning heterogeneous dynamic embeddings of patients, doctors, rooms, and medications from diverse data streams. These embeddings capture similarities among doctors, rooms, patients, and medications based on static attributes and dynamic interactions. DECENT enables several applications in healthcare prediction, such as predicting mortality risk and case severity of patients, adverse events (e.g., transfer back into an intensive care unit), and future healthcare-associated infections. The results of using the learned patient embeddings in predictive modeling show that DECENT has a gain of up to 48.1% on the mortality risk prediction task, 12.6% on the case severity prediction task, 6.4% on the medical intensive care unit transfer task, and 3.8% on the Clostridioides difficile (C.diff) Infection (CDI) prediction task over the state-of-the-art baselines. In addition, case studies on the learned doctor, medication, and room embeddings show that our approach learns meaningful and interpretable embeddings.
Since the appearance of Covid-19 in late 2019, Covid-19 has become an active research topic for the artificial intelligence (AI) community. One of the most interesting AI topics is Covid-19 analysis of medical imaging. CT-scan imaging is the most informative tool about this disease. This work is part of the 3nd COV19D competition for Covid-19 Severity Prediction. In order to deal with the big gap between the validation and test results that were shown in the previous version of this competition, we proposed to combine the prediction of 2D and 3D CNN predictions. For the 2D CNN approach, we propose 2B-InceptResnet architecture which consists of two paths for segmented lungs and infection of all slices of the input CT-scan, respectively. Each path consists of ConvLayer and Inception-ResNet pretrained model on ImageNet. For the 3D CNN approach, we propose hybrid-DeCoVNet architecture which consists of four blocks: Stem, four 3D-ResNet layers, Classification Head and Decision layer. Our proposed approaches outperformed the baseline approach in the validation data of the 3nd COV19D competition for Covid-19 Severity Prediction by 36%.
Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) has become one of the leading causes of vision impairment in working-aged people and is a severe problem worldwide. However, most of the works ignored the ordinal information of labels. In this project, we propose a novel design MTCSNN, a Multi-task Clinical Siamese Neural Network for Diabetic Retinopathy severity prediction task. The novelty of this project is to utilize the ordinal information among labels and add a new regression task, which can help the model learn more discriminative feature embedding for fine-grained classification tasks. We perform comprehensive experiments over the RetinaMNIST, comparing MTCSNN with other models like ResNet-18, 34, 50. Our results indicate that MTCSNN outperforms the benchmark models in terms of AUC and accuracy on the test dataset.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused devastating economic and social disruption, straining the resources of healthcare institutions worldwide. This has led to a nationwide call for models to predict hospitalization and severe illness in patients with COVID-19 to inform distribution of limited healthcare resources. We respond to one of these calls specific to the pediatric population. To address this challenge, we study two prediction tasks for the pediatric population using electronic health records: 1) predicting which children are more likely to be hospitalized, and 2) among hospitalized children, which individuals are more likely to develop severe symptoms. We respond to the national Pediatric COVID-19 data challenge with a novel machine learning model, MedML. MedML extracts the most predictive features based on medical knowledge and propensity scores from over 6 million medical concepts and incorporates the inter-feature relationships between heterogeneous medical features via graph neural networks (GNN). We evaluate MedML across 143,605 patients for the hospitalization prediction task and 11,465 patients for the severity prediction task using data from the National Cohort Collaborative (N3C) dataset. We also report detailed group-level and individual-level feature importance analyses to evaluate the model interpretability. MedML achieves up to a 7% higher AUROC score and up to a 14% higher AUPRC score compared to the best baseline machine learning models and performs well across all nine national geographic regions and over all three-month spans since the start of the pandemic. Our cross-disciplinary research team has developed a method of incorporating clinical domain knowledge as the framework for a new type of machine learning model that is more predictive and explainable than current state-of-the-art data-driven feature selection methods.
Class distribution plays an important role in learning deep classifiers. When the proportion of each class in the test set differs from the training set, the performance of classification nets usually degrades. Such a label distribution shift problem is common in medical diagnosis since the prevalence of disease vary over location and time. In this paper, we propose the first method to tackle label shift for medical image classification, which effectively adapt the model learned from a single training label distribution to arbitrary unknown test label distribution. Our approach innovates distribution calibration to learn multiple representative classifiers, which are capable of handling different one-dominating-class distributions. When given a test image, the diverse classifiers are dynamically aggregated via the consistency-driven test-time adaptation, to deal with the unknown test label distribution. We validate our method on two important medical image classification tasks including liver fibrosis staging and COVID-19 severity prediction. Our experiments clearly show the decreased model performance under label shift. With our method, model performance significantly improves on all the test datasets with different label shifts for both medical image diagnosis tasks.
Parkinson's disease (PD) is a neurological disorder that has a variety of observable motor-related symptoms such as slow movement, tremor, muscular rigidity, and impaired posture. PD is typically diagnosed by evaluating the severity of motor impairments according to scoring systems such as the Movement Disorder Society Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS). Automated severity prediction using video recordings of individuals provides a promising route for non-intrusive monitoring of motor impairments. However, the limited size of PD gait data hinders model ability and clinical potential. Because of this clinical data scarcity and inspired by the recent advances in self-supervised large-scale language models like GPT-3, we use human motion forecasting as an effective self-supervised pre-training task for the estimation of motor impairment severity. We introduce GaitForeMer, Gait Forecasting and impairment estimation transforMer, which is first pre-trained on public datasets to forecast gait movements and then applied to clinical data to predict MDS-UPDRS gait impairment severity. Our method outperforms previous approaches that rely solely on clinical data by a large margin, achieving an F1 score of 0.76, precision of 0.79, and recall of 0.75. Using GaitForeMer, we show how public human movement data repositories can assist clinical use cases through learning universal motion representations. The code is available at https://github.com/markendo/GaitForeMer .
Since COVID strongly affects the respiratory system, lung CT-scans can be used for the analysis of a patients health. We introduce a neural network for the prediction of the severity of lung damage and the detection of a COVID-infection using three-dimensional CT-data. Therefore, we adapt the recent ConvNeXt model to process three-dimensional data. Furthermore, we design and analyze different pretraining methods specifically designed to improve the models ability to handle three-dimensional CT-data. We rank 2nd in the 1st COVID19 Severity Detection Challenge and 3rd in the 2nd COVID19 Detection Challenge.
In today's world, a massive amount of data is available in almost every sector. This data has become an asset as we can use this enormous amount of data to find information. Mainly health care industry contains many data consisting of patient and disease-related information. By using the machine learning technique, we can look for hidden data patterns to predict various diseases. Recently CVDs, or cardiovascular disease, have become a leading cause of death around the world. The number of death due to CVDs is frightening. That is why many researchers are trying their best to design a predictive model that can save many lives using the data mining model. In this research, some fusion models have been constructed to diagnose CVDs along with its severity. Machine learning(ML) algorithms like artificial neural network, SVM, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and AdaBoost have been applied to the heart disease dataset to predict disease. Randomoversampler was implemented because of the class imbalance in multiclass classification. To improve the performance of classification, a weighted score fusion approach was taken. At first, the models were trained. After training, two algorithms' decision was combined using a weighted sum rule. A total of three fusion models have been developed from the six ML algorithms. The results were promising in the performance parameter. The proposed approach has been experimented with different test training ratios for binary and multiclass classification problems, and for both of them, the fusion models performed well. The highest accuracy for multiclass classification was found as 75%, and it was 95% for binary. The code can be found in : https://github.com/hafsa-kibria/Weighted_score_fusion_model_heart_disease_prediction
The COVID-19 corona virus has claimed 4.1 million lives, as of July 24, 2021. A variety of machine learning models have been applied to related data to predict important factors such as the severity of the disease, infection rate and discover important prognostic factors. Often the usefulness of the findings from the use of these techniques is reduced due to lack of method interpretability. Some recent progress made on the interpretability of machine learning models has the potential to unravel more insights while using conventional machine learning models. In this work, we analyze COVID-19 blood work data with some of the popular machine learning models; then we employ state-of-the-art post-hoc local interpretability techniques(e.g.- SHAP, LIME), and global interpretability techniques(e.g. - symbolic metamodeling) to the trained black-box models to draw interpretable conclusions. In the gamut of machine learning algorithms, regressions remain one of the simplest and most explainable models with clear mathematical formulation. We explore one of the most recent techniques called symbolic metamodeling to find the mathematical expression of the machine learning models for COVID-19. We identify Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), initial Albumin level (ALBI), Aspartate aminotransferase (ASTI), Total Bilirubin initial(TBILI) and D-Dimer initial (DIMER) as major prognostic factors of the disease severity. Our contributions are- (i) uncover the underlying mathematical expression for the black-box models on COVID-19 severity prediction task (ii) we are the first to apply symbolic metamodeling to this task, and (iii) discover important features and feature interactions.
Data-driven research on the automated discovery and repair of security vulnerabilities in source code requires comprehensive datasets of real-life vulnerable code and their fixes. To assist in such research, we propose a method to automatically collect and curate a comprehensive vulnerability dataset from Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) records in the public National Vulnerability Database (NVD). We implement our approach in a fully automated dataset collection tool and share an initial release of the resulting vulnerability dataset named CVEfixes. The CVEfixes collection tool automatically fetches all available CVE records from the NVD, gathers the vulnerable code and corresponding fixes from associated open-source repositories, and organizes the collected information in a relational database. Moreover, the dataset is enriched with meta-data such as programming language, and detailed code and security metrics at five levels of abstraction. The collection can easily be repeated to keep up-to-date with newly discovered or patched vulnerabilities. The initial release of CVEfixes spans all published CVEs up to 9 June 2021, covering 5365 CVE records for 1754 open-source projects that were addressed in a total of 5495 vulnerability fixing commits. CVEfixes supports various types of data-driven software security research, such as vulnerability prediction, vulnerability classification, vulnerability severity prediction, analysis of vulnerability-related code changes, and automated vulnerability repair.
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a contagious infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-COV-2) and it has infected and killed millions of people across the globe. In the absence of specific drugs or vaccines for the treatment of COVID-19 and the limitation of prevailing diagnostic techniques, there is a requirement for some alternate automatic screening systems that can be used by the physicians to quickly identify and isolate the infected patients. A chest X-ray (CXR) image can be used as an alternative modality to detect and diagnose the COVID-19. In this study, we present an automatic COVID-19 diagnostic and severity prediction (COVIDX) system that uses deep feature maps from CXR images to diagnose COVID-19 and its severity prediction. The proposed system uses a three-phase classification approach (healthy vs unhealthy, COVID-19 vs Pneumonia, and COVID-19 severity) using different shallow supervised classification algorithms. We evaluated COVIDX not only through 10-fold cross2 validation and by using an external validation dataset but also in real settings by involving an experienced radiologist. In all the evaluation settings, COVIDX outperforms all the existing stateof-the-art methods designed for this purpose. We made COVIDX easily accessible through a cloud-based webserver and python code available at https://sites.google.com/view/wajidarshad/software and https://github.com/wajidarshad/covidx, respectively.
The black-box nature of machine learning models hinders the deployment of some high-accuracy models in medical diagnosis. It is risky to put one's life in the hands of models that medical researchers do not fully understand. However, through model interpretation, black-box models can promptly reveal significant biomarkers that medical practitioners may have overlooked due to the surge of infected patients in the COVID-19 pandemic. This research leverages a database of 92 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 laboratory tests between 18th Jan. 2020 and 5th Mar. 2020, in Zhuhai, China, to identify biomarkers indicative of severity prediction. Through the interpretation of four machine learning models, decision tree, random forests, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks using permutation feature importance, Partial Dependence Plot (PDP), Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE), Accumulated Local Effects (ALE), Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME), and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP), we identify an increase in N-Terminal pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NTproBNP), C-Reaction Protein (CRP), and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), a decrease in lymphocyte (LYM) is associated with severe infection and an increased risk of death, which is consistent with recent medical research on COVID-19 and other research using dedicated models. We further validate our methods on a large open dataset with 5644 confirmed patients from the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, at S\~ao Paulo, Brazil from Kaggle, and unveil leukocytes, eosinophils, and platelets as three indicative biomarkers for COVID-19.