Action-driven stochastic human motion prediction aims to generate future motion sequences of a pre-defined target action based on given past observed sequences performing non-target actions. This task primarily presents two challenges. Firstly, generating smooth transition motions is hard due to the varying transition speeds of different actions. Secondly, the action characteristic is difficult to be learned because of the similarity of some actions. These issues cause the predicted results to be unreasonable and inconsistent. As a result, we propose two memory banks, the Soft-transition Action Bank (STAB) and Action Characteristic Bank (ACB), to tackle the problems above. The STAB stores the action transition information. It is equipped with the novel soft searching approach, which encourages the model to focus on multiple possible action categories of observed motions. The ACB records action characteristic, which produces more prior information for predicting certain actions. To fuse the features retrieved from the two banks better, we further propose the Adaptive Attention Adjustment (AAA) strategy. Extensive experiments on four motion prediction datasets demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms the previous state-of-the-art. The demo and code are available at https://hyqlat.github.io/STABACB.github.io/.
Human Motion Prediction (HMP) aims to predict future poses at different moments according to past motion sequences. Previous approaches have treated the prediction of various moments equally, resulting in two main limitations: the learning of short-term predictions is hindered by the focus on long-term predictions, and the incorporation of prior information from past predictions into subsequent predictions is limited. In this paper, we introduce a novel multi-stage training framework called Temporal Continual Learning (TCL) to address the above challenges. To better preserve prior information, we introduce the Prior Compensation Factor (PCF). We incorporate it into the model training to compensate for the lost prior information. Furthermore, we derive a more reasonable optimization objective through theoretical derivation. It is important to note that our TCL framework can be easily integrated with different HMP backbone models and adapted to various datasets and applications. Extensive experiments on four HMP benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of TCL. The code is available at https://github.com/hyqlat/TCL.
Existing long-term video prediction methods often rely on an autoregressive video prediction mechanism. However, this approach suffers from error propagation, particularly in distant future frames. To address this limitation, this paper proposes the first AutoRegression-Free (ARFree) video prediction framework using diffusion models. Different from an autoregressive video prediction mechanism, ARFree directly predicts any future frame tuples from the context frame tuple. The proposed ARFree consists of two key components: 1) a motion prediction module that predicts a future motion using motion feature extracted from the context frame tuple; 2) a training method that improves motion continuity and contextual consistency between adjacent future frame tuples. Our experiments with two benchmark datasets show that the proposed ARFree video prediction framework outperforms several state-of-the-art video prediction methods.
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning and task planning capabilities but remain fundamentally limited in physical interaction modeling. Existing approaches integrate perception via Vision-Language Models (VLMs) or adaptive decision-making through Reinforcement Learning (RL), but they fail to capture dynamic object interactions or require task-specific training, limiting their real-world applicability. We introduce APEX (Anticipatory Physics-Enhanced Execution), a framework that equips LLMs with physics-driven foresight for real-time task planning. APEX constructs structured graphs to identify and model the most relevant dynamic interactions in the environment, providing LLMs with explicit physical state updates. Simultaneously, APEX provides low-latency forward simulations of physically feasible actions, allowing LLMs to select optimal strategies based on predictive outcomes rather than static observations. We evaluate APEX on three benchmarks designed to assess perception, prediction, and decision-making: (1) Physics Reasoning Benchmark, testing causal inference and object motion prediction; (2) Tetris, evaluating whether physics-informed prediction enhances decision-making performance in long-horizon planning tasks; (3) Dynamic Obstacle Avoidance, assessing the immediate integration of perception and action feasibility analysis. APEX significantly outperforms standard LLMs and VLM-based models, demonstrating the necessity of explicit physics reasoning for bridging the gap between language-based intelligence and real-world task execution. The source code and experiment setup are publicly available at https://github.com/hwj20/APEX_EXP .
The 3D human pose is vital for modern computer vision and computer graphics, and its prediction has drawn attention in recent years. 3D human pose prediction aims at forecasting a human's future motion from the previous sequence. Ignoring that the arbitrariness of human motion sequences has a firm origin in transition in both temporal and spatial axes limits the performance of state-of-the-art methods, leading them to struggle with making precise predictions on complex cases, e.g., arbitrarily posing or greeting. To alleviate this problem, a network called HaarMoDic is proposed in this paper, which utilizes the 2D Haar transform to project joints to higher resolution coordinates where the network can access spatial and temporal information simultaneously. An ablation study proves that the significant contributing module within the HaarModic Network is the Multi-Resolution Haar (MR-Haar) block. Instead of mining in one of two axes or extracting separately, the MR-Haar block projects whole motion sequences to a mixed-up coordinate in higher resolution with 2D Haar Transform, allowing the network to give scope to information from both axes in different resolutions. With the MR-Haar block, the HaarMoDic network can make predictions referring to a broader range of information. Experimental results demonstrate that HaarMoDic surpasses state-of-the-art methods in every testing interval on the Human3.6M dataset in the Mean Per Joint Position Error (MPJPE) metric.
As the field progresses toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), there is a pressing need for more comprehensive and insightful evaluation frameworks that go beyond aggregate performance metrics. This paper introduces a unified rating system that jointly models the difficulty of individual test cases and the competency of AI models (or humans) across vision, language, and action domains. Unlike existing metrics that focus solely on models, our approach allows for fine-grained, difficulty-aware evaluations through competitive interactions between models and tasks, capturing both the long-tail distribution of real-world challenges and the competency gap between current models and full task mastery. We validate the generalizability and robustness of our system through extensive experiments on multiple established datasets and models across distinct AGI domains. The resulting rating distributions offer novel perspectives and interpretable insights into task difficulty, model progression, and the outstanding challenges that remain on the path to achieving full AGI task mastery.
This paper proposes an integrated approach for the safe and efficient control of mobile robots in dynamic and uncertain environments. The approach consists of two key steps: one-shot multimodal motion prediction to anticipate motions of dynamic obstacles and model predictive control to incorporate these predictions into the motion planning process. Motion prediction is driven by an energy-based neural network that generates high-resolution, multi-step predictions in a single operation. The prediction outcomes are further utilized to create geometric shapes formulated as mathematical constraints. Instead of treating each dynamic obstacle individually, predicted obstacles are grouped by proximity in an unsupervised way to improve performance and efficiency. The overall collision-free navigation is handled by model predictive control with a specific design for proactive dynamic obstacle avoidance. The proposed approach allows mobile robots to navigate effectively in dynamic environments. Its performance is accessed across various scenarios that represent typical warehouse settings. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms other existing dynamic obstacle avoidance methods.
End-to-end autonomous driving aims to produce planning trajectories from raw sensors directly. Currently, most approaches integrate perception, prediction, and planning modules into a fully differentiable network, promising great scalability. However, these methods typically rely on deterministic modeling of online maps in the perception module for guiding or constraining vehicle planning, which may incorporate erroneous perception information and further compromise planning safety. To address this issue, we delve into the importance of online map uncertainty for enhancing autonomous driving safety and propose a novel paradigm named UncAD. Specifically, UncAD first estimates the uncertainty of the online map in the perception module. It then leverages the uncertainty to guide motion prediction and planning modules to produce multi-modal trajectories. Finally, to achieve safer autonomous driving, UncAD proposes an uncertainty-collision-aware planning selection strategy according to the online map uncertainty to evaluate and select the best trajectory. In this study, we incorporate UncAD into various state-of-the-art (SOTA) end-to-end methods. Experiments on the nuScenes dataset show that integrating UncAD, with only a 1.9% increase in parameters, can reduce collision rates by up to 26% and drivable area conflict rate by up to 42%. Codes, pre-trained models, and demo videos can be accessed at https://github.com/pengxuanyang/UncAD.
Diffusion models have recently gained significant attention in robotics due to their ability to generate multi-modal distributions of system states and behaviors. However, a key challenge remains: ensuring precise control over the generated outcomes without compromising realism. This is crucial for applications such as motion planning or trajectory forecasting, where adherence to physical constraints and task-specific objectives is essential. We propose a novel framework that enhances controllability in diffusion models by leveraging multi-modal prior distributions and enforcing strong modal coupling. This allows us to initiate the denoising process directly from distinct prior modes that correspond to different possible system behaviors, ensuring sampling to align with the training distribution. We evaluate our approach on motion prediction using the Waymo dataset and multi-task control in Maze2D environments. Experimental results show that our framework outperforms both guidance-based techniques and conditioned models with unimodal priors, achieving superior fidelity, diversity, and controllability, even in the absence of explicit conditioning. Overall, our approach provides a more reliable and scalable solution for controllable motion generation in robotics.
Current software stacks for real-world applications of autonomous driving leverage map information to ensure reliable localization, path planning, and motion prediction. An important field of research is the generation of point cloud maps, referring to the topic of simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM). As most recent developments do not include global position data, the resulting point cloud maps suffer from internal distortion and missing georeferencing, preventing their use for map-based localization approaches. Therefore, we propose FlexCloud for an automatic georeferencing of point cloud maps created from SLAM. Our approach is designed to work modularly with different SLAM methods, utilizing only the generated local point cloud map and its odometry. Using the corresponding GNSS positions enables direct georeferencing without additional control points. By leveraging a 3D rubber-sheet transformation, we can correct distortions within the map caused by long-term drift while maintaining its structure. Our approach enables the creation of consistent, globally referenced point cloud maps from data collected by a mobile mapping system (MMS). The source code of our work is available at https://github.com/TUMFTM/FlexCloud.
Recent breakthroughs in autonomous driving have been propelled by advances in robust world modeling, fundamentally transforming how vehicles interpret dynamic scenes and execute safe decision-making. World models have emerged as a linchpin technology, offering high-fidelity representations of the driving environment that integrate multi-sensor data, semantic cues, and temporal dynamics. This paper systematically reviews recent advances in world models for autonomous driving, proposing a three-tiered taxonomy: (i) Generation of Future Physical World, covering Image-, BEV-, OG-, and PC-based generation methods that enhance scene evolution modeling through diffusion models and 4D occupancy forecasting; (ii) Behavior Planning for Intelligent Agents, combining rule-driven and learning-based paradigms with cost map optimization and reinforcement learning for trajectory generation in complex traffic conditions; (ii) Interaction between Prediction and Planning, achieving multi-agent collaborative decision-making through latent space diffusion and memory-augmented architectures. The study further analyzes training paradigms, including self-supervised learning, multimodal pretraining, and generative data augmentation, while evaluating world models' performance in scene understanding and motion prediction tasks. Future research must address key challenges in self-supervised representation learning, long-tail scenario generation, and multimodal fusion to advance the practical deployment of world models in complex urban environments. Overall, the comprehensive analysis provides a technical roadmap for harnessing the transformative potential of world models in advancing safe and reliable autonomous driving solutions.
Perception and prediction modules are critical components of autonomous driving systems, enabling vehicles to navigate safely through complex environments. The perception module is responsible for perceiving the environment, including static and dynamic objects, while the prediction module is responsible for predicting the future behavior of these objects. These modules are typically divided into three tasks: object detection, object tracking, and motion prediction. Traditionally, these tasks are developed and optimized independently, with outputs passed sequentially from one to the next. However, this approach has significant limitations: computational resources are not shared across tasks, the lack of joint optimization can amplify errors as they propagate throughout the pipeline, and uncertainty is rarely propagated between modules, resulting in significant information loss. To address these challenges, the joint perception and prediction paradigm has emerged, integrating perception and prediction into a unified model through multi-task learning. This strategy not only overcomes the limitations of previous methods, but also enables the three tasks to have direct access to raw sensor data, allowing richer and more nuanced environmental interpretations. This paper presents the first comprehensive survey of joint perception and prediction for autonomous driving. We propose a taxonomy that categorizes approaches based on input representation, scene context modeling, and output representation, highlighting their contributions and limitations. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis and quantitative comparison of existing methods. Finally, we discuss future research directions based on identified gaps in the state-of-the-art.
Modeling the evolutions of driving scenarios is important for the evaluation and decision-making of autonomous driving systems. Most existing methods focus on one aspect of scene evolution such as map generation, motion prediction, and trajectory planning. In this paper, we propose a unified Generative Pre-training for Driving (GPD-1) model to accomplish all these tasks altogether without additional fine-tuning. We represent each scene with ego, agent, and map tokens and formulate autonomous driving as a unified token generation problem. We adopt the autoregressive transformer architecture and use a scene-level attention mask to enable intra-scene bi-directional interactions. For the ego and agent tokens, we propose a hierarchical positional tokenizer to effectively encode both 2D positions and headings. For the map tokens, we train a map vector-quantized autoencoder to efficiently compress ego-centric semantic maps into discrete tokens. We pre-train our GPD-1 on the large-scale nuPlan dataset and conduct extensive experiments to evaluate its effectiveness. With different prompts, our GPD-1 successfully generalizes to various tasks without finetuning, including scene generation, traffic simulation, closed-loop simulation, map prediction, and motion planning. Code: https://github.com/wzzheng/GPD.
Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity models exist for any given region. The arbitrary choice of which velocity model to use in earthquake simulations impacts ground motion predictions. However, current hazard analysis methods do not account for this source of uncertainty. We present a proof-of-concept ground motion prediction workflow for incorporating uncertainties arising from inconsistencies between existing seismic velocity models. Our analysis is based on the probabilistic fusion of overlapping seismic velocity models using scalable Gaussian process (GP) regression. Specifically, we fit a GP to two synthetic 1-D velocity profiles simultaneously, and show that the predictive uncertainty accounts for the differences between the models. We subsequently draw velocity model samples from the predictive distribution and estimate peak ground displacement using acoustic wave propagation through the velocity models. The resulting distribution of possible ground motion amplitudes is much wider than would be predicted by simulating shaking using only the two input velocity models. This proof-of-concept illustrates the importance of probabilistic methods for physics-based seismic hazard analysis.
We propose TAROT, a targeted data selection framework grounded in optimal transport theory. Previous targeted data selection methods primarily rely on influence-based greedy heuristics to enhance domain-specific performance. While effective on limited, unimodal data (i.e., data following a single pattern), these methods struggle as target data complexity increases. Specifically, in multimodal distributions, these heuristics fail to account for multiple inherent patterns, leading to suboptimal data selection. This work identifies two primary factors contributing to this limitation: (i) the disproportionate impact of dominant feature components in high-dimensional influence estimation, and (ii) the restrictive linear additive assumptions inherent in greedy selection strategies. To address these challenges, TAROT incorporates whitened feature distance to mitigate dominant feature bias, providing a more reliable measure of data influence. Building on this, TAROT uses whitened feature distance to quantify and minimize the optimal transport distance between the selected data and target domains. Notably, this minimization also facilitates the estimation of optimal selection ratios. We evaluate TAROT across multiple tasks, including semantic segmentation, motion prediction, and instruction tuning. Results consistently show that TAROT outperforms state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its versatility across various deep learning tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/vita-epfl/TAROT.
Motion prediction is critical for autonomous vehicles to effectively navigate complex environments and accurately anticipate the behaviors of other traffic participants. As autonomous driving continues to evolve, the need to assimilate new and varied driving scenarios necessitates frequent model updates through retraining. To address these demands, we introduce DECODE, a novel continual learning framework that begins with a pre-trained generalized model and incrementally develops specialized models for distinct domains. Unlike existing continual learning approaches that attempt to develop a unified model capable of generalizing across diverse scenarios, DECODE uniquely balances specialization with generalization, dynamically adjusting to real-time demands. The proposed framework leverages a hypernetwork to generate model parameters, significantly reducing storage requirements, and incorporates a normalizing flow mechanism for real-time model selection based on likelihood estimation. Furthermore, DECODE merges outputs from the most relevant specialized and generalized models using deep Bayesian uncertainty estimation techniques. This integration ensures optimal performance in familiar conditions while maintaining robustness in unfamiliar scenarios. Extensive evaluations confirm the effectiveness of the framework, achieving a notably low forgetting rate of 0.044 and an average minADE of 0.584 m, significantly surpassing traditional learning strategies and demonstrating adaptability across a wide range of driving conditions.
Autonomous driving requires a comprehensive understanding of 3D environments to facilitate high-level tasks such as motion prediction, planning, and mapping. In this paper, we introduce DriveMLLM, a benchmark specifically designed to evaluate the spatial understanding capabilities of multimodal large language models (MLLMs) in autonomous driving. DriveMLLM includes 880 front-facing camera images and introduces both absolute and relative spatial reasoning tasks, accompanied by linguistically diverse natural language questions. To measure MLLMs' performance, we propose novel evaluation metrics focusing on spatial understanding. We evaluate several state-of-the-art MLLMs on DriveMLLM, and our results reveal the limitations of current models in understanding complex spatial relationships in driving contexts. We believe these findings underscore the need for more advanced MLLM-based spatial reasoning methods and highlight the potential for DriveMLLM to drive further research in autonomous driving. Code will be available at \url{https://github.com/XiandaGuo/Drive-MLLM}.
The ability of intelligent systems to predict human behaviors is crucial, particularly in fields such as autonomous vehicle navigation and social robotics. However, the complexity of human motion have prevented the development of a standardized dataset for human motion prediction, thereby hindering the establishment of pre-trained models. In this paper, we address these limitations by integrating multiple datasets, encompassing both trajectory and 3D pose keypoints, to propose a pre-trained model for human motion prediction. We merge seven distinct datasets across varying modalities and standardize their formats. To facilitate multimodal pre-training, we introduce Multi-Transmotion, an innovative transformer-based model designed for cross-modality pre-training. Additionally, we present a novel masking strategy to capture rich representations. Our methodology demonstrates competitive performance across various datasets on several downstream tasks, including trajectory prediction in the NBA and JTA datasets, as well as pose prediction in the AMASS and 3DPW datasets. The code is publicly available: https://github.com/vita-epfl/multi-transmotion
Pedestrian motion prediction is a key part of the modular-based autonomous driving pipeline, ensuring safe, accurate, and timely awareness of human agents' possible future trajectories. The autonomous vehicle can use this information to prevent any possible accidents and create a comfortable and pleasant driving experience for the passengers and pedestrians. A wealth of research was done on the topic from the authors of robotics, computer vision, intelligent transportation systems, and other fields. However, a relatively unexplored angle is the integration of the state-of-art solutions into existing autonomous driving stacks and evaluating them in real-life conditions rather than sanitized datasets. We analyze selected publications with provided open-source solutions and provide a perspective obtained by integrating them into existing Autonomous Driving framework - Autoware Mini and performing experiments in natural urban conditions in Tartu, Estonia to determine valuability of traditional motion prediction metrics. This perspective should be valuable to any potential autonomous driving or robotics engineer looking for the real-world performance of the existing state-of-art pedestrian motion prediction problem. The code with instructions on accessing the dataset is available at https://github.com/dmytrozabolotnii/autoware_mini.
Predicting the behavior of road users accurately is crucial to enable the safe operation of autonomous vehicles in urban or densely populated areas. Therefore, there has been a growing interest in time series motion prediction research, leading to significant advancements in state-of-the-art techniques in recent years. However, the potential of using LiDAR data to capture more detailed local features, such as a person's gaze or posture, remains largely unexplored. To address this, we develop a novel multimodal approach for motion prediction based on the PointNet foundation model architecture, incorporating local LiDAR features. Evaluation on the Waymo Open Dataset shows a performance improvement of 6.20% and 1.58% in minADE and mAP respectively, when integrated and compared with the previous state-of-the-art MTR. We open-source the code of our LiMTR model.