Network traffic prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent network operation. Traditional prediction methods often rely on centralized training, necessitating the transfer of vast amounts of traffic data to a central server. This approach can lead to latency and privacy concerns. To address these issues, federated learning integrated with differential privacy has emerged as a solution to improve data privacy and model robustness in distributed settings. Nonetheless, existing federated learning protocols are vulnerable to Byzantine attacks, which may significantly compromise model robustness. Developing a robust and privacy-preserving prediction model in the presence of Byzantine clients remains a significant challenge. To this end, we propose an asynchronous differential federated learning framework based on distributionally robust optimization. The proposed framework utilizes multiple clients to train the prediction model collaboratively with local differential privacy. In addition, regularization techniques have been employed to further improve the Byzantine robustness of the models. We have conducted extensive experiments on three real-world datasets, and the results elucidate that our proposed distributed algorithm can achieve superior performance over existing methods.
Accurate prediction of traffic flow parameters and real time identification of congestion states are essential for the efficient operation of intelligent transportation systems. This paper proposes a Periodic Pattern Transformer Network (PPTNet) for traffic flow prediction, integrating periodic pattern extraction with the Transformer architecture, coupled with a fuzzy inference method for real-time congestion identification. Firstly, a high-precision traffic flow dataset (Traffic Flow Dataset for China's Congested Highways and Expressways, TF4CHE) suitable for congested highway scenarios in China is constructed based on drone aerial imagery data. Subsequently, the proposed PPTNet employs Fast Fourier Transform to capture multi-scale periodic patterns and utilizes two-dimensional Inception convolutions to efficiently extract intra and inter periodic features. A Transformer decoder dynamically models temporal dependencies, enabling accurate predictions of traffic density and speed. Finally, congestion probabilities are calculated in real-time using the predicted outcomes via a Mamdani fuzzy inference-based congestion identification module. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed PPTNet significantly outperforms mainstream traffic prediction methods in prediction accuracy, and the congestion identification module effectively identifies real-time road congestion states, verifying the superiority and practicality of the proposed method in real-world traffic scenarios. Project page: https://github.com/ADSafetyJointLab/PPTNet.
Accurate traffic flow prediction is vital for optimizing urban mobility, yet it remains difficult in many cities due to complex spatio-temporal dependencies and limited high-quality data. While deep graph-based models demonstrate strong predictive power, their performance often comes at the cost of high computational overhead and substantial training data requirements, making them impractical for deployment in resource-constrained or data-scarce environments. We propose the FlowDistill, a lightweight and scalable traffic prediction framework based on knowledge distillation from large language models (LLMs). In this teacher-student setup, a fine-tuned LLM guides a compact multi-layer perceptron (MLP) student model using a novel combination of the information bottleneck principle and teacher-bounded regression loss, ensuring the distilled model retains only essential and transferable knowledge. Spatial and temporal correlations are explicitly encoded to enhance the model's generalization across diverse urban settings. Despite its simplicity, FlowDistill consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models in prediction accuracy while requiring significantly less training data, and achieving lower memory usage and inference latency, highlighting its efficiency and suitability for real-world, scalable deployment.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and differential equations (DEs) are two rapidly advancing areas of research that have shown remarkable synergy in recent years. GNNs have emerged as powerful tools for learning on graph-structured data, while differential equations provide a principled framework for modeling continuous dynamics across time and space. The intersection of these fields has led to innovative approaches that leverage the strengths of both, enabling applications in physics-informed learning, spatiotemporal modeling, and scientific computing. This survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the burgeoning research at the intersection of GNNs and DEs. We will categorize existing methods, discuss their underlying principles, and highlight their applications across domains such as molecular modeling, traffic prediction, and epidemic spreading. Furthermore, we identify open challenges and outline future research directions to advance this interdisciplinary field. A comprehensive paper list is provided at https://github.com/Emory-Melody/Awesome-Graph-NDEs. This survey serves as a resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand and contribute to the fusion of GNNs and DEs
Modern transportation systems face pressing challenges due to increasing demand, dynamic environments, and heterogeneous information integration. The rapid evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers transformative potential to address these challenges. Extensive knowledge and high-level capabilities derived from pretraining evolve the default role of LLMs as text generators to become versatile, knowledge-driven task solvers for intelligent transportation systems. This survey first presents LLM4TR, a novel conceptual framework that systematically categorizes the roles of LLMs in transportation into four synergetic dimensions: information processors, knowledge encoders, component generators, and decision facilitators. Through a unified taxonomy, we systematically elucidate how LLMs bridge fragmented data pipelines, enhance predictive analytics, simulate human-like reasoning, and enable closed-loop interactions across sensing, learning, modeling, and managing tasks in transportation systems. For each role, our review spans diverse applications, from traffic prediction and autonomous driving to safety analytics and urban mobility optimization, highlighting how emergent capabilities of LLMs such as in-context learning and step-by-step reasoning can enhance the operation and management of transportation systems. We further curate practical guidance, including available resources and computational guidelines, to support real-world deployment. By identifying challenges in existing LLM-based solutions, this survey charts a roadmap for advancing LLM-driven transportation research, positioning LLMs as central actors in the next generation of cyber-physical-social mobility ecosystems. Online resources can be found in the project page: https://github.com/tongnie/awesome-llm4tr.
Urban traffic optimization is critical for improving transportation efficiency and alleviating congestion, particularly in large-scale dynamic networks. Traditional methods, such as Dijkstra's and Floyd's algorithms, provide effective solutions in static settings, but they struggle with the spatial-temporal complexity of real-world traffic flows. In this work, we propose TrafficKAN-GCN, a hybrid deep learning framework combining Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) with Graph Convolutional Networks (GCN), designed to enhance urban traffic flow optimization. By integrating KAN's adaptive nonlinear function approximation with GCN's spatial graph learning capabilities, TrafficKAN-GCN captures both complex traffic patterns and topological dependencies. We evaluate the proposed framework using real-world traffic data from the Baltimore Metropolitan area. Compared with baseline models such as MLP-GCN, standard GCN, and Transformer-based approaches, TrafficKAN-GCN achieves competitive prediction accuracy while demonstrating improved robustness in handling noisy and irregular traffic data. Our experiments further highlight the framework's ability to redistribute traffic flow, mitigate congestion, and adapt to disruptive events, such as the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse. This study contributes to the growing body of work on hybrid graph learning for intelligent transportation systems, highlighting the potential of combining KAN and GCN for real-time traffic optimization. Future work will focus on reducing computational overhead and integrating Transformer-based temporal modeling for enhanced long-term traffic prediction. The proposed TrafficKAN-GCN framework offers a promising direction for data-driven urban mobility management, balancing predictive accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency.
Mining spatio-temporal correlation patterns for traffic prediction is a well-studied field. However, most approaches are based on the assumption of the availability of and accessibility to a sufficiently dense data source, which is rather the rare case in reality. Traffic sensors in road networks are generally highly sparse in their distribution: fleet-based traffic sensing is sparse in space but also sparse in time. There are also other traffic application, besides road traffic, like moving objects in the marine space, where observations are sparsely and arbitrarily distributed in space. In this paper, we tackle the problem of traffic prediction on sparse and spatially irregular and non-deterministic traffic observations. We draw a border between imputations and this work as we consider high sparsity rates and no fixed sensor locations. We advance correlation mining methods with a Sparse Unstructured Spatio Temporal Reconstruction (SUSTeR) framework that reconstructs traffic states from sparse non-stationary observations. For the prediction the framework creates a hidden context traffic state which is enriched in a residual fashion with each observation. Such an assimilated hidden traffic state can be used by existing traffic prediction methods to predict future traffic states. We query these states with query locations from the spatial domain.
The effectiveness of neural network models largely relies on learning meaningful latent patterns from data, where self-supervised learning of informative representations can enhance model performance and generalisability. However, self-supervised representation learning for spatially characterised time series, which are ubiquitous in transportation domain, poses unique challenges due to the necessity of maintaining fine-grained spatio-temporal similarities in the latent space. In this study, we introduce two structure-preserving regularisers for the contrastive learning of spatial time series: one regulariser preserves the topology of similarities between instances, and the other preserves the graph geometry of similarities across spatial and temporal dimensions. To balance the contrastive learning objective and the need for structure preservation, we propose a dynamic weighting mechanism that adaptively manages this trade-off and stabilises training. We validate the proposed method through extensive experiments, including multivariate time series classification to demonstrate its general applicability, as well as macroscopic and microscopic traffic prediction to highlight its particular usefulness in encoding traffic interactions. Across all tasks, our method preserves the similarity structures more effectively and improves state-of-the-art task performances. This method can be integrated with an arbitrary neural network model and is particularly beneficial for time series data with spatial or geographical features. Furthermore, our findings suggest that well-preserved similarity structures in the latent space indicate more informative and useful representations. This provides insights to design more effective neural networks for data-driven transportation research. Our code is made openly accessible with all resulting data at https://github.com/yiru-jiao/spclt
Graph neural networks (GNNs) have gained considerable attention in recent years for traffic flow prediction due to their ability to learn spatio-temporal pattern representations through a graph-based message-passing framework. Although GNNs have shown great promise in handling traffic datasets, their deployment in real-life applications has been hindered by scalability constraints arising from high-order message passing. Additionally, the over-smoothing problem of GNNs may lead to indistinguishable region representations as the number of layers increases, resulting in performance degradation. To address these challenges, we propose a new knowledge distillation paradigm termed LightST that transfers spatial and temporal knowledge from a high-capacity teacher to a lightweight student. Specifically, we introduce a spatio-temporal knowledge distillation framework that helps student MLPs capture graph-structured global spatio-temporal patterns while alleviating the over-smoothing effect with adaptive knowledge distillation. Extensive experiments verify that LightST significantly speeds up traffic flow predictions by 5X to 40X compared to state-of-the-art spatio-temporal GNNs, all while maintaining superior accuracy.
Spatiotemporal data is ubiquitous, and forecasting it has important applications in many domains. However, its complex cross-component dependencies and non-linear temporal dynamics can be challenging for traditional techniques. Existing methods address this by learning the two dimensions separately. Here, we introduce Temporal Graphormer (T-Graphormer), a Transformer-based approach capable of modelling spatiotemporal correlations simultaneously. By adding temporal encodings in the Graphormer architecture, each node attends to all other tokens within the graph sequence, enabling the model to learn rich spacetime patterns with minimal predefined inductive biases. We show the effectiveness of T-Graphormer on real-world traffic prediction benchmark datasets. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, T-Graphormer reduces root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) by up to 20% and 10%.
Given a partially observed road network, how can we predict the traffic state of unobserved locations? While deep learning approaches show exceptional performance in traffic prediction, most assume sensors at all locations of interest, which is impractical due to financial constraints. Furthermore, these methods typically require costly retraining when sensor configurations change. We propose MoGERNN, an inductive spatio-temporal graph representation model, to address these challenges. Inspired by the Mixture of Experts approach in Large Language Models, we introduce a Mixture of Graph Expert (MoGE) block to model complex spatial dependencies through multiple graph message aggregators and a sparse gating network. This block estimates initial states for unobserved locations, which are then processed by a GRU-based Encoder-Decoder that integrates a graph message aggregator to capture spatio-temporal dependencies and predict future states. Experiments on two real-world datasets show MoGERNN consistently outperforms baseline methods for both observed and unobserved locations. MoGERNN can accurately predict congestion evolution even in areas without sensors, offering valuable information for traffic management. Moreover, MoGERNN is adaptable to dynamic sensing networks, maintaining competitive performance even compared to its retrained counterpart. Tests with different numbers of available sensors confirm its consistent superiority, and ablation studies validate the effectiveness of its key modules.
Accurate traffic flow prediction is essential for applications like transport logistics but remains challenging due to complex spatio-temporal correlations and non-linear traffic patterns. Existing methods often model spatial and temporal dependencies separately, failing to effectively fuse them. To overcome this limitation, the Dynamic Spatial-Temporal Trend Transformer DST2former is proposed to capture spatio-temporal correlations through adaptive embedding and to fuse dynamic and static information for learning multi-view dynamic features of traffic networks. The approach employs the Dynamic Trend Representation Transformer (DTRformer) to generate dynamic trends using encoders for both temporal and spatial dimensions, fused via Cross Spatial-Temporal Attention. Predefined graphs are compressed into a representation graph to extract static attributes and reduce redundancy. Experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance.
Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical in applications such as traffic prediction, climate modeling, and environmental monitoring. However, the prevalence of missing data in real-world sensor networks significantly complicates this task. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Graph MLP-Mixer (T-GMM), a novel architecture designed to address these challenges. The model combines node-level processing with patch-level subgraph encoding to capture localized spatial dependencies while leveraging a three-dimensional MLP-Mixer to handle temporal, spatial, and feature-based dependencies. Experiments on the AQI, ENGRAD, PV-US and METR-LA datasets demonstrate the model's ability to effectively forecast even in the presence of significant missing data. While not surpassing state-of-the-art models in all scenarios, the T-GMM exhibits strong learning capabilities, particularly in capturing long-range dependencies. These results highlight its potential for robust, scalable spatiotemporal forecasting.
In recent years, traffic flow prediction has played a crucial role in the management of intelligent transportation systems. However, traditional prediction methods are often limited by static spatial modeling, making it difficult to accurately capture the dynamic and complex relationships between time and space, thereby affecting prediction accuracy. This paper proposes an innovative traffic flow prediction network, SFADNet, which categorizes traffic flow into multiple traffic patterns based on temporal and spatial feature matrices. For each pattern, we construct an independent adaptive spatio-temporal fusion graph based on a cross-attention mechanism, employing residual graph convolution modules and time series modules to better capture dynamic spatio-temporal relationships under different fine-grained traffic patterns. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that SFADNet outperforms current state-of-the-art baselines across four large-scale datasets.
In recent years, traffic flow prediction has played a crucial role in the management of intelligent transportation systems. However, traditional forecasting methods often model non-Euclidean low-dimensional traffic data as a simple graph with single-type nodes and edges, failing to capture similar trends among nodes of the same type. To address this limitation, this paper proposes MHGNet, a novel framework for modeling spatiotemporal multi-heterogeneous graphs. Within this framework, the STD Module decouples single-pattern traffic data into multi-pattern traffic data through feature mappings of timestamp embedding matrices and node embedding matrices. Subsequently, the Node Clusterer leverages the Euclidean distance between nodes and different types of limit points to perform clustering with O(N) time complexity. The nodes within each cluster undergo residual subgraph convolution within the spatiotemporal fusion subgraphs generated by the DSTGG Module, followed by processing in the SIE Module for node repositioning and redistribution of weights. To validate the effectiveness of MHGNet, this paper conducts extensive ablation studies and quantitative evaluations on four widely used benchmarks, demonstrating its superior performance.
Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation systems. Existing approaches primarily focus on improving overall accuracy, often neglecting a critical issue: whether predictive models lead to biased decisions by transportation authorities. In practice, the uneven deployment of traffic sensors across urban areas results in imbalanced data, causing prediction models to perform poorly in certain regions and leading to unfair decision-making. This imbalance ultimately harms the equity and quality of life for residents. Moreover, current fairness-aware machine learning models only ensure fairness at specific time points, failing to maintain fairness over extended periods. As traffic conditions change, such static fairness approaches become ineffective. To address this gap, we propose FairTP, a framework for prolonged fair traffic prediction. We introduce two new fairness definitions tailored for dynamic traffic scenarios. Fairness in traffic prediction is not static; it varies over time and across regions. Each sensor or urban area can alternate between two states: "sacrifice" (low prediction accuracy) and "benefit" (high prediction accuracy). Prolonged fairness is achieved when the overall states of sensors remain similar over a given period. We define two types of fairness: region-based static fairness and sensor-based dynamic fairness. To implement this, FairTP incorporates a state identification module to classify sensors' states as either "sacrifice" or "benefit," enabling prolonged fairness-aware predictions. Additionally, we introduce a state-guided balanced sampling strategy to further enhance fairness, addressing performance disparities among regions with uneven sensor distributions. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that FairTP significantly improves prediction fairness while minimizing accuracy degradation.
Road traffic forecasting is crucial in real-world intelligent transportation scenarios like traffic dispatching and path planning in city management and personal traveling. Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) stand out as the mainstream solution in this task. Nevertheless, the quadratic complexity of remarkable dynamic spatial modeling-based STGNNs has become the bottleneck over large-scale traffic data. From the spatial data management perspective, we present a novel Transformer framework called PatchSTG to efficiently and dynamically model spatial dependencies for large-scale traffic forecasting with interpretability and fidelity. Specifically, we design a novel irregular spatial patching to reduce the number of points involved in the dynamic calculation of Transformer. The irregular spatial patching first utilizes the leaf K-dimensional tree (KDTree) to recursively partition irregularly distributed traffic points into leaf nodes with a small capacity, and then merges leaf nodes belonging to the same subtree into occupancy-equaled and non-overlapped patches through padding and backtracking. Based on the patched data, depth and breadth attention are used interchangeably in the encoder to dynamically learn local and global spatial knowledge from points in a patch and points with the same index of patches. Experimental results on four real world large-scale traffic datasets show that our PatchSTG achieves train speed and memory utilization improvements up to $10\times$ and $4\times$ with the state-of-the-art performance.
The increasing demand for efficient resource allocation in mobile networks has catalyzed the exploration of innovative solutions that could enhance the task of real-time cellular traffic prediction. Under these circumstances, federated learning (FL) stands out as a distributed and privacy-preserving solution to foster collaboration among different sites, thus enabling responsive near-the-edge solutions. In this paper, we comprehensively study the potential benefits of FL in telecommunications through a case study on federated traffic forecasting using real-world data from base stations (BSs) in Barcelona (Spain). Our study encompasses relevant aspects within the federated experience, including model aggregation techniques, outlier management, the impact of individual clients, personalized learning, and the integration of exogenous sources of data. The performed evaluation is based on both prediction accuracy and sustainability, thus showcasing the environmental impact of employed FL algorithms in various settings. The findings from our study highlight FL as a promising and robust solution for mobile traffic prediction, emphasizing its twin merits as a privacy-conscious and environmentally sustainable approach, while also demonstrating its capability to overcome data heterogeneity and ensure high-quality predictions, marking a significant stride towards its integration in mobile traffic management systems.
Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) and Transformers have shown significant promise in traffic forecasting by effectively modeling temporal and spatial correlations. However, rapid urbanization in recent years has led to dynamic shifts in traffic patterns and travel demand, posing major challenges for accurate long-term traffic prediction. The generalization capability of ST-GNNs in extended temporal scenarios and cross-city applications remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluate state-of-the-art models on an extended traffic benchmark and observe substantial performance degradation in existing ST-GNNs over time, which we attribute to their limited inductive capabilities. Our analysis reveals that this degradation stems from an inability to adapt to evolving spatial relationships within urban environments. To address this limitation, we reconsider the design of adaptive embeddings and propose a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) embedding approach that enables models to adapt to new scenarios without retraining. We incorporate PCA embeddings into existing ST-GNN and Transformer architectures, achieving marked improvements in performance. Notably, PCA embeddings allow for flexibility in graph structures between training and testing, enabling models trained on one city to perform zero-shot predictions on other cities. This adaptability demonstrates the potential of PCA embeddings in enhancing the robustness and generalization of spatiotemporal models.
Accurate traffic prediction faces significant challenges, necessitating a deep understanding of both temporal and spatial cues and their complex interactions across multiple variables. Recent advancements in traffic prediction systems are primarily due to the development of complex sequence-centric models. However, existing approaches often embed multiple variables and spatial relationships at each time step, which may hinder effective variable-centric learning, ultimately leading to performance degradation in traditional traffic prediction tasks. To overcome these limitations, we introduce variable-centric and prior knowledge-centric modeling techniques. Specifically, we propose a Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts (TITAN) model for traffic flow prediction. TITAN initially consists of three experts focused on sequence-centric modeling. Then, designed a low-rank adaptive method, TITAN simultaneously enables variable-centric modeling. Furthermore, we supervise the gating process using a prior knowledge-centric modeling strategy to ensure accurate routing. Experiments on two public traffic network datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, demonstrate that TITAN effectively captures variable-centric dependencies while ensuring accurate routing. Consequently, it achieves improvements in all evaluation metrics, ranging from approximately 4.37\% to 11.53\%, compared to previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) models. The code is open at \href{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}{https://github.com/sqlcow/TITAN}.