The neurons of artificial neural networks were originally invented when much less was known about biological neurons than is known today. Our work explores a modification to the core neuron unit to make it more parallel to a biological neuron. The modification is made with the knowledge that biological dendrites are not simply passive activation funnels, but also compute complex non-linear functions as they transmit activation to the cell body. The paper explores a novel system of "Perforated" backpropagation empowering the artificial neurons of deep neural networks to achieve better performance coding for the same features they coded for in the original architecture. After an initial network training phase, additional "Dendrite Nodes" are added to the network and separately trained with a different objective: to correlate their output with the remaining error of the original neurons. The trained Dendrite Nodes are then frozen, and the original neurons are further trained, now taking into account the additional error signals provided by the Dendrite Nodes. The cycle of training the original neurons and then adding and training Dendrite Nodes can be repeated several times until satisfactory performance is achieved. Our algorithm was successfully added to modern state-of-the-art PyTorch networks across multiple domains, improving upon original accuracies and allowing for significant model compression without a loss in accuracy.
Temporal Graph Learning (TGL) is crucial for capturing the evolving nature of stock markets. Traditional methods often ignore the interplay between dynamic temporal changes and static relational structures between stocks. To address this issue, we propose the Dynamic Graph Representation with Contrastive Learning (DGRCL) framework, which integrates dynamic and static graph relations to improve the accuracy of stock trend prediction. Our framework introduces two key components: the Embedding Enhancement (EE) module and the Contrastive Constrained Training (CCT) module. The EE module focuses on dynamically capturing the temporal evolution of stock data, while the CCT module enforces static constraints based on stock relations, refined within contrastive learning. This dual-relation approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of stock market dynamics. Our experiments on two major U.S. stock market datasets, NASDAQ and NYSE, demonstrate that DGRCL significantly outperforms state-of-the-art TGL baselines. Ablation studies indicate the importance of both modules. Overall, DGRCL not only enhances prediction ability but also provides a robust framework for integrating temporal and relational data in dynamic graphs. Code and data are available for public access.
The advent of large language models (LLMs) has initiated much research into their various financial applications. However, in applying LLMs on long documents, semantic relations are not explicitly incorporated, and a full or arbitrarily sparse attention operation is employed. In recent years, progress has been made in Abstract Meaning Representation (AMR), which is a graph-based representation of text to preserve its semantic relations. Since AMR can represent semantic relationships at a deeper level, it can be beneficially utilized by graph neural networks (GNNs) for constructing effective document-level graph representations built upon LLM embeddings to predict target metrics in the financial domain. We propose FLAG: Financial Long document classification via AMR-based GNN, an AMR graph based framework to generate document-level embeddings for long financial document classification. We construct document-level graphs from sentence-level AMR graphs, endow them with specialized LLM word embeddings in the financial domain, apply a deep learning mechanism that utilizes a GNN, and examine the efficacy of our AMR-based approach in predicting labeled target data from long financial documents. Extensive experiments are conducted on a dataset of quarterly earnings calls transcripts of companies in various sectors of the economy, as well as on a corpus of more recent earnings calls of companies in the S&P 1500 Composite Index. We find that our AMR-based approach outperforms fine-tuning LLMs directly on text in predicting stock price movement trends at different time horizons in both datasets. Our work also outperforms previous work utilizing document graphs and GNNs for text classification.
Stock price prediction is a challenging problem in the field of finance and receives widespread attention. In recent years, with the rapid development of technologies such as deep learning and graph neural networks, more research methods have begun to focus on exploring the interrelationships between stocks. However, existing methods mostly focus on the short-term dynamic relationships of stocks and directly integrating relationship information with temporal information. They often overlook the complex nonlinear dynamic characteristics and potential higher-order interaction relationships among stocks in the stock market. Therefore, we propose a stock price trend prediction model named LSR-IGRU in this paper, which is based on long short-term stock relationships and an improved GRU input. Firstly, we construct a long short-term relationship matrix between stocks, where secondary industry information is employed for the first time to capture long-term relationships of stocks, and overnight price information is utilized to establish short-term relationships. Next, we improve the inputs of the GRU model at each step, enabling the model to more effectively integrate temporal information and long short-term relationship information, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of predicting stock trend changes. Finally, through extensive experiments on multiple datasets from stock markets in China and the United States, we validate the superiority of the proposed LSR-IGRU model over the current state-of-the-art baseline models. We also apply the proposed model to the algorithmic trading system of a financial company, achieving significantly higher cumulative portfolio returns compared to other baseline methods. Our sources are released at https://github.com/ZP1481616577/Baselines_LSR-IGRU.
The task of financial analysis primarily encompasses two key areas: stock trend prediction and the corresponding financial question answering. Currently, machine learning and deep learning algorithms (ML&DL) have been widely applied for stock trend predictions, leading to significant progress. However, these methods fail to provide reasons for predictions, lacking interpretability and reasoning processes. Also, they can not integrate textual information such as financial news or reports. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) have remarkable textual understanding and generation ability. But due to the scarcity of financial training datasets and limited integration with real-time knowledge, LLMs still suffer from hallucinations and are unable to keep up with the latest information. To tackle these challenges, we first release AlphaFin datasets, combining traditional research datasets, real-time financial data, and handwritten chain-of-thought (CoT) data. It has a positive impact on training LLMs for completing financial analysis. We then use AlphaFin datasets to benchmark a state-of-the-art method, called Stock-Chain, for effectively tackling the financial analysis task, which integrates retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) techniques. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on financial analysis.
The recent advancements in Deep Learning (DL) research have notably influenced the finance sector. We examine the robustness and generalizability of fifteen state-of-the-art DL models focusing on Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data. To carry out this study, we developed LOBCAST, an open-source framework that incorporates data preprocessing, DL model training, evaluation and profit analysis. Our extensive experiments reveal that all models exhibit a significant performance drop when exposed to new data, thereby raising questions about their real-world market applicability. Our work serves as a benchmark, illuminating the potential and the limitations of current approaches and providing insight for innovative solutions.
Natural Language Processing(NLP) demonstrates a great potential to support financial decision-making by analyzing the text from social media or news outlets. In this work, we build a platform to study the NLP-aided stock auto-trading algorithms systematically. In contrast to the previous work, our platform is characterized by three features: (1) We provide financial news for each specific stock. (2) We provide various stock factors for each stock. (3) We evaluate performance from more financial-relevant metrics. Such a design allows us to develop and evaluate NLP-aided stock auto-trading algorithms in a more realistic setting. In addition to designing an evaluation platform and dataset collection, we also made a technical contribution by proposing a system to automatically learn a good feature representation from various input information. The key to our algorithm is a method called semantic role labeling Pooling (SRLP), which leverages Semantic Role Labeling (SRL) to create a compact representation of each news paragraph. Based on SRLP, we further incorporate other stock factors to make the final prediction. In addition, we propose a self-supervised learning strategy based on SRLP to enhance the out-of-distribution generalization performance of our system. Through our experimental study, we show that the proposed method achieves better performance and outperforms all the baselines' annualized rate of return as well as the maximum drawdown of the CSI300 index and XIN9 index on real trading. Our Astock dataset and code are available at https://github.com/JinanZou/Astock.
In many real-world scenarios, we often deal with streaming data that is sequentially collected over time. Due to the non-stationary nature of the environment, the streaming data distribution may change in unpredictable ways, which is known as concept drift. To handle concept drift, previous methods first detect when/where the concept drift happens and then adapt models to fit the distribution of the latest data. However, there are still many cases that some underlying factors of environment evolution are predictable, making it possible to model the future concept drift trend of the streaming data, while such cases are not fully explored in previous work. In this paper, we propose a novel method DDG-DA, that can effectively forecast the evolution of data distribution and improve the performance of models. Specifically, we first train a predictor to estimate the future data distribution, then leverage it to generate training samples, and finally train models on the generated data. We conduct experiments on three real-world tasks (forecasting on stock price trend, electricity load and solar irradiance) and obtain significant improvement on multiple widely-used models.
Predicting the future price trends of stocks is a challenging yet intriguing problem given its critical role to help investors make profitable decisions. In this paper, we present a collaborative temporal-relational modeling framework for end-to-end stock trend prediction. The temporal dynamics of stocks is firstly captured with an attention-based recurrent neural network. Then, different from existing studies relying on the pairwise correlations between stocks, we argue that stocks are naturally connected as a collective group, and introduce the hypergraph structures to jointly characterize the stock group-wise relationships of industry-belonging and fund-holding. A novel hypergraph tri-attention network (HGTAN) is proposed to augment the hypergraph convolutional networks with a hierarchical organization of intra-hyperedge, inter-hyperedge, and inter-hypergraph attention modules. In this manner, HGTAN adaptively determines the importance of nodes, hyperedges, and hypergraphs during the information propagation among stocks, so that the potential synergies between stock movements can be fully exploited. Extensive experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Also, the results of investment simulation show that our approach can achieve a more desirable risk-adjusted return. The data and codes of our work have been released at https://github.com/lixiaojieff/HGTAN.
In this paper, we introduce an event-driven trading strategy that predicts stock movements by detecting corporate events from news articles. Unlike existing models that utilize textual features (e.g., bag-of-words) and sentiments to directly make stock predictions, we consider corporate events as the driving force behind stock movements and aim to profit from the temporary stock mispricing that may occur when corporate events take place. The core of the proposed strategy is a bi-level event detection model. The low-level event detector identifies events' existences from each token, while the high-level event detector incorporates the entire article's representation and the low-level detected results to discover events at the article-level. We also develop an elaborately-annotated dataset EDT for corporate event detection and news-based stock prediction benchmark. EDT includes 9721 news articles with token-level event labels as well as 303893 news articles with minute-level timestamps and comprehensive stock price labels. Experiments on EDT indicate that the proposed strategy outperforms all the baselines in winning rate, excess returns over the market, and the average return on each transaction.