We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at the previous timestep); instead we can optimize just the expected log-likelihood, performing a single step of natural gradient descent starting at the prior predictive. We prove this method recovers exact Bayesian inference if the model is conjugate. We also show how to compute an efficient deterministic approximation to the VB objective, as well as our simplified objective, when the variational distribution is Gaussian or a sub-family, including the case of a diagonal plus low-rank precision matrix. We show empirically that our method outperforms other online VB methods in the non-conjugate setting, such as online learning for neural networks, especially when controlling for computational costs.
Sequential Bayesian inference over predictive functions is a natural framework for continual learning from streams of data. However, applying it to neural networks has proved challenging in practice. Addressing the drawbacks of existing techniques, we propose an optimization objective derived by formulating continual learning as sequential function-space variational inference. In contrast to existing methods that regularize neural network parameters directly, this objective allows parameters to vary widely during training, enabling better adaptation to new tasks. Compared to objectives that directly regularize neural network predictions, the proposed objective allows for more flexible variational distributions and more effective regularization. We demonstrate that, across a range of task sequences, neural networks trained via sequential function-space variational inference achieve better predictive accuracy than networks trained with related methods while depending less on maintaining a set of representative points from previous tasks.
Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.
The digital twin concept represents an appealing opportunity to advance condition-based and predictive maintenance paradigms for civil engineering systems, thus allowing reduced lifecycle costs, increased system safety, and increased system availability. This work proposes a predictive digital twin approach to the health monitoring, maintenance, and management planning of civil engineering structures. The asset-twin coupled dynamical system is encoded employing a probabilistic graphical model, which allows all relevant sources of uncertainty to be taken into account. In particular, the time-repeating observations-to-decisions flow is modeled using a dynamic Bayesian network. Real-time structural health diagnostics are provided by assimilating sensed data with deep learning models. The digital twin state is continually updated in a sequential Bayesian inference fashion. This is then exploited to inform the optimal planning of maintenance and management actions within a dynamic decision-making framework. A preliminary offline phase involves the population of training datasets through a reduced-order numerical model and the computation of a health-dependent control policy. The strategy is assessed on two synthetic case studies, involving a cantilever beam and a railway bridge, demonstrating the dynamic decision-making capabilities of health-aware digital twins.
Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.
To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.
Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.