Multivariate time series anomaly detection (MTS-AD) is critical in domains like healthcare, cybersecurity, and industrial monitoring, yet remains challenging due to complex inter-variable dependencies, temporal dynamics, and sparse anomaly labels. We introduce mTSBench, the largest benchmark to date for MTS-AD and unsupervised model selection, spanning 344 labeled time series across 19 datasets and 12 diverse application domains. mTSBench evaluates 24 anomaly detection methods, including large language model (LLM)-based detectors for multivariate time series, and systematically benchmarks unsupervised model selection techniques under standardized conditions. Consistent with prior findings, our results confirm that no single detector excels across datasets, underscoring the importance of model selection. However, even state-of-the-art selection methods remain far from optimal, revealing critical gaps. mTSBench provides a unified evaluation suite to enable rigorous, reproducible comparisons and catalyze future advances in adaptive anomaly detection and robust model selection.
Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned against using CV in their analysis. The striking increase in the use of machine learning, and thus CV, in the analysis of experimental designs, has led us to empirically study the effectiveness of CV compared to other methods of selecting models in designed experiments, including the little bootstrap. We consider both response surface settings where prediction is of primary interest, as well as screening where factor selection is most important. Overall, we provide evidence that the use of leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) in the analysis of small, structured is often useful. More general $k$-fold CV may also be competitive but its performance is uneven.
Decision trees are widely used for interpretable machine learning due to their clearly structured reasoning process. However, this structure belies a challenge we refer to as predictive equivalence: a given tree's decision boundary can be represented by many different decision trees. The presence of models with identical decision boundaries but different evaluation processes makes model selection challenging. The models will have different variable importance and behave differently in the presence of missing values, but most optimization procedures will arbitrarily choose one such model to return. We present a boolean logical representation of decision trees that does not exhibit predictive equivalence and is faithful to the underlying decision boundary. We apply our representation to several downstream machine learning tasks. Using our representation, we show that decision trees are surprisingly robust to test-time missingness of feature values; we address predictive equivalence's impact on quantifying variable importance; and we present an algorithm to optimize the cost of reaching predictions.
The rapid emergence of diverse large language models (LLMs) has spurred the development of LLM routers that assign user queries to the most suitable model. However, existing LLM routers typically perform a single-round, one-to-one mapping (\textit{i.e.}, assigning each query to a single model in isolation), which limits their capability to tackle complex tasks that demand the complementary strengths of multiple LLMs. In this paper, we present \textbf{Router-R1}, a reinforcement learning (RL)-based framework that formulates multi-LLM routing and aggregation as a sequential decision process. Router-R1 instantiates the router itself as a capable LLM, leveraging its reasoning ability to interleave "think" actions (internal deliberation) with "route" actions (dynamic model invocation), and integrates each response into its evolving context. To guide learning, we employ a lightweight rule-based reward comprising format rewards, final outcome rewards, and a novel cost reward for performance and cost trade-off optimization, opening a pathway toward optimizing performance-cost tradeoffs via RL. Router-R1 also conditions only on simple model descriptors such as pricing, latency, and example performance, enabling strong generalization to unseen model selection. Experiments on seven general and multi-hop QA benchmarks show that Router-R1 outperforms over several strong baselines, achieving superior performance while maintaining robust generalization and cost management.Code is available at https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/Router-R1.
Partial label learning (PLL) seeks to train generalizable classifiers from datasets with inexact supervision, a common challenge in real-world applications. Existing studies have developed numerous approaches to progressively refine and recover ground-truth labels by training convolutional neural networks. However, limited attention has been given to foundation models that offer transferrable representations. In this work, we empirically conduct comprehensive evaluations of 11 foundation models across 13 PLL approaches on 8 benchmark datasets under 3 PLL scenarios. We further propose PartialCLIP, an efficient fine-tuning framework for foundation models in PLL. Our findings reveal that current PLL approaches tend to 1) achieve significant performance gains when using foundation models, 2) exhibit remarkably similar performance to each other, 3) maintain stable performance across varying ambiguity levels, while 4) are susceptible to foundation model selection and adaptation strategies. Additionally, we demonstrate the efficacy of text-embedding classifier initialization and effective candidate label filtering using zero-shot CLIP. Our experimental results and analysis underscore the limitations of current PLL approaches and provide valuable insights for developing more generalizable PLL models. The source code can be found at https://github.com/SEU-hk/PartialCLIP.
Automating the enrichment of UML class diagrams with behavioral methods from natural language use cases is a significant challenge. This study evaluates nine large language models (LLMs) in augmenting a methodless UML diagram (21 classes, 17 relationships) using 21 structured waste-management use cases. A total of 90 diagrams (3,373 methods) were assessed across six metrics: method quantity, signature richness (visibility, names, parameters, return types), annotation completeness (linking to use cases/actions), structural fidelity, syntactic correctness (PlantUML compilation), and naming convergence (across models). All LLMs produced valid PlantUML diagrams adhering to UML conventions. Some models excelled in method coverage and annotation accuracy, while others showed richer parameterization but weaker traceability. These results demonstrate that LLMs can generate well-structured methods with consistent naming, advancing automated behavioral modeling. However, inconsistencies in annotations and signatures highlight the need for improved prompt engineering and model selection. The rapid generation of these methods supports Agile practices by enabling faster design iterations. Despite their capabilities, human oversight is essential to ensure accuracy, appropriateness, and semantic alignment. This positions LLMs as collaborative partners in software design. All experimental artifacts (\texttt{.puml}, \texttt{.png}, \texttt{.csv}) are publicly available for reproducibility.
Motivation: Model selection is a ubiquitous challenge in statistics. For penalized models, model selection typically entails tuning hyperparameters to maximize a measure of fit or minimize out-of-sample prediction error. However, these criteria fail to reflect other desirable characteristics, such as model sparsity, interpretability, or smoothness. Results: We present the R package pared to enable the use of multi-objective optimization for model selection. Our approach entails the use of Gaussian process-based optimization to efficiently identify solutions that represent desirable trade-offs. Our implementation includes popular models with multiple objectives including the elastic net, fused lasso, fused graphical lasso, and group graphical lasso. Our R package generates interactive graphics that allow the user to identify hyperparameter values that result in fitted models which lie on the Pareto frontier. Availability: We provide the R package pared and vignettes illustrating its application to both simulated and real data at https://github.com/priyamdas2/pared.
To be fully useful for public health practice, models for epidemic response must be able to do more than predict -- it is also important to incorporate the mechanisms underlying transmission dynamics to enable policymakers and practitioners to be able to evaluate what-if scenarios and intervention options. However, most mechanistic models suffer from uncertainty in both the parameters (e.g., parameter unidentifiability) and the model structure itself, which can hinder both successful parameter estimation and model interpretation. To enable rapid development of interpretable and parsimonious mechanistic models, we use penalized regression and covariate selection methods to integrate parameter identifiability and model selection directly into the parameter estimation procedure for (in this case) traditional ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. For both simulated and real-world epidemiological data, we demonstrate that the LASSO-ODE framework is highly effective in selecting a parsimonious, identifiable model from larger, more realistic but potentially unidentifiable models, from realistically sparse data with only a single measured compartment and multiple latent (unobserved) variables. While we focus on epidemic models in this paper as a case study, these same approaches are applicable to a wide range of application areas that are faced with relatively sparse data but a need for realistic mechanistic models (e.g. mathematical oncology and mathematical biology more broadly). Additionally, the cross-validation techniques designed for time series data introduced in our study can be used across a range of time series analysis and modeling approaches.
Web 2.0 social platforms are inherently centralized, with user data and algorithmic decisions controlled by the platform. However, users can only passively receive social predictions without being able to choose the underlying algorithm, which limits personalization. Fortunately, with the emergence of blockchain, users are allowed to choose algorithms that are tailored to their local situation, improving prediction results in a personalized way. In a blockchain environment, each user possesses its own model to perform the social prediction, capturing different perspectives on social interactions. In our work, we propose DeSocial, a decentralized social network learning framework deployed on an Ethereum (ETH) local development chain that integrates distributed data storage, node-level consensus, and user-driven model selection through Ganache. In the first stage, each user leverages DeSocial to evaluate multiple backbone models on their local subgraph. DeSocial coordinates the execution and returns model-wise prediction results, enabling the user to select the most suitable backbone for personalized social prediction. Then, DeSocial uniformly selects several validation nodes that possess the algorithm specified by each user, and aggregates the prediction results by majority voting, to prevent errors caused by any single model's misjudgment. Extensive experiments show that DeSocial has an evident improvement compared to the five classical centralized social network learning models, promoting user empowerment in blockchain-based decentralized social networks, showing the importance of multi-node validation and personalized algorithm selection based on blockchain. Our implementation is available at: https://github.com/agiresearch/DeSocial.
Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) is a critical yet challenging aspect of machine learning model development, significantly impacting model performance and generalization. Traditional HPO methods often struggle with high dimensionality, complex interdependencies, and computational expense. This paper introduces OptiMindTune, a novel multi-agent framework designed to intelligently and efficiently optimize hyperparameters. OptiMindTune leverages the collaborative intelligence of three specialized AI agents -- a Recommender Agent, an Evaluator Agent, and a Decision Agent -- each powered by Google's Gemini models. These agents address distinct facets of the HPO problem, from model selection and hyperparameter suggestion to robust evaluation and strategic decision-making. By fostering dynamic interactions and knowledge sharing, OptiMindTune aims to converge to optimal hyperparameter configurations more rapidly and robustly than existing single-agent or monolithic approaches. Our framework integrates principles from advanced large language models, and adaptive search to achieve scalable and intelligent AutoML. We posit that this multi-agent paradigm offers a promising avenue for tackling the increasing complexity of modern machine learning model tuning.
Effective disaster management requires timely access to accurate and contextually relevant information. Existing Information Retrieval (IR) benchmarks, however, focus primarily on general or specialized domains, such as medicine or finance, neglecting the unique linguistic complexity and diverse information needs encountered in disaster management scenarios. To bridge this gap, we introduce DisastIR, the first comprehensive IR evaluation benchmark specifically tailored for disaster management. DisastIR comprises 9,600 diverse user queries and more than 1.3 million labeled query-passage pairs, covering 48 distinct retrieval tasks derived from six search intents and eight general disaster categories that include 301 specific event types. Our evaluations of 30 state-of-the-art retrieval models demonstrate significant performance variances across tasks, with no single model excelling universally. Furthermore, comparative analyses reveal significant performance gaps between general-domain and disaster management-specific tasks, highlighting the necessity of disaster management-specific benchmarks for guiding IR model selection to support effective decision-making in disaster management scenarios. All source codes and DisastIR are available at https://github.com/KaiYin97/Disaster_IR.
Graph-structured data is a type of data to be obtained associated with a graph structure where vertices and edges describe some kind of data correlation. This paper proposes a regression method on graph-structured data, which is based on multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP), to capture both the correlation between vertices and the correlation between associated data. The proposed formulation is built on the definition of MOGP. This allows it to be applied to a wide range of data configurations and scenarios. Moreover, it has high expressive capability due to its flexibility in kernel design. It includes existing methods of Gaussian processes for graph-structured data as special cases and is possible to remove restrictions on data configurations, model selection, and inference scenarios in the existing methods. The performance of extensions achievable by the proposed formulation is evaluated through computer experiments with synthetic and real data.
The proliferation of open-sourced Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse downstream tasks necessitates efficient model selection, given the impracticality of fine-tuning all candidates due to computational constraints. Despite the recent advances in LLM selection, a fundamental research question largely remains nascent: how can we model the dynamic behaviors of LLMs during fine-tuning, thereby enhancing our understanding of their generalization performance across diverse downstream tasks? In this work, we propose a novel theoretical framework that provides a proper lens to assess the generalization capabilities of LLMs, thereby enabling accurate and efficient LLM selection for downstream applications. In particular, we first derive a Hessian-based PAC-Bayes generalization bound that unveils fine-tuning dynamics of LLMs and then introduce LENSLLM, a Neural Tangent Kernel(NTK)-based Rectified Scaling Model that enables accurate performance predictions across diverse tasks while maintaining computational efficiency. Extensive empirical results on 3 large-scale benchmarks demonstrate that our model achieves up to 91.1% accuracy and reduces up to 88.5% computational cost in LLM selection, outperforming 5 state-of-the-art methods. We open-source our proposed LENSLLM model and corresponding results at the Github link: https://github.com/Susan571/LENSLLM.git.
Sample-wise learning curves plot performance versus training set size. They are useful for studying scaling laws and speeding up hyperparameter tuning and model selection. Learning curves are often assumed to be well-behaved: monotone (i.e. improving with more data) and convex. By constructing the Learning Curves Database 1.1 (LCDB 1.1), a large-scale database with high-resolution learning curves, we show that learning curves are less often well-behaved than previously thought. Using statistically rigorous methods, we observe significant ill-behavior in approximately 14% of the learning curves, almost twice as much as in previous estimates. We also identify which learners are to blame and show that specific learners are more ill-behaved than others. Additionally, we demonstrate that different feature scalings rarely resolve ill-behavior. We evaluate the impact of ill-behavior on downstream tasks, such as learning curve fitting and model selection, and find it poses significant challenges, underscoring the relevance and potential of LCDB 1.1 as a challenging benchmark for future research.
Deploying large language models (LLMs) in real-world applications requires robust safety guard models to detect and block harmful user prompts. While large safety guard models achieve strong performance, their computational cost is substantial. To mitigate this, smaller distilled models are used, but they often underperform on "hard" examples where the larger model provides accurate predictions. We observe that many inputs can be reliably handled by the smaller model, while only a small fraction require the larger model's capacity. Motivated by this, we propose SafeRoute, a binary router that distinguishes hard examples from easy ones. Our method selectively applies the larger safety guard model to the data that the router considers hard, improving efficiency while maintaining accuracy compared to solely using the larger safety guard model. Experimental results on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that our adaptive model selection significantly enhances the trade-off between computational cost and safety performance, outperforming relevant baselines.
Anomaly detection (AD) is essential in areas such as fraud detection, network monitoring, and scientific research. However, the diversity of data modalities and the increasing number of specialized AD libraries pose challenges for non-expert users who lack in-depth library-specific knowledge and advanced programming skills. To tackle this, we present AD-AGENT, an LLM-driven multi-agent framework that turns natural-language instructions into fully executable AD pipelines. AD-AGENT coordinates specialized agents for intent parsing, data preparation, library and model selection, documentation mining, and iterative code generation and debugging. Using a shared short-term workspace and a long-term cache, the agents integrate popular AD libraries like PyOD, PyGOD, and TSLib into a unified workflow. Experiments demonstrate that AD-AGENT produces reliable scripts and recommends competitive models across libraries. The system is open-sourced to support further research and practical applications in AD.
We address the problem of recovering multiple structures of different classes in a dataset contaminated by noise and outliers. In particular, we consider geometric structures defined by a mixture of underlying parametric models (e.g. planes and cylinders, homographies and fundamental matrices), and we tackle the robust fitting problem by preference analysis and clustering. We present a new algorithm, termed MultiLink, that simultaneously deals with multiple classes of models. MultiLink combines on-the-fly model fitting and model selection in a novel linkage scheme that determines whether two clusters are to be merged. The resulting method features many practical advantages with respect to methods based on preference analysis, being faster, less sensitive to the inlier threshold, and able to compensate limitations deriving from hypotheses sampling. Experiments on several public datasets demonstrate that Multi-Link favourably compares with state of the art alternatives, both in multi-class and single-class problems. Code is publicly made available for download.
The success of unsupervised learning raises the question of whether also supervised models can be trained without using the information in the output $y$. In this paper, we demonstrate that this is indeed possible. The key step is to formulate the model as a smoother, i.e. on the form $\hat{f}=Sy$, and to construct the smoother matrix $S$ independently of $y$, e.g. by training on random labels. We present a simple model selection criterion based on the distribution of the out-of-sample predictions and show that, in contrast to cross-validation, this criterion can be used also without access to $y$. We demonstrate on real and synthetic data that $y$-free trained versions of linear and kernel ridge regression, smoothing splines, and neural networks perform similarly to their standard, $y$-based, versions and, most importantly, significantly better than random guessing.
This work presents an open-source unified benchmarking and evaluation framework for text-to-image generation models, with a particular focus on the impact of metadata augmented prompts. Leveraging the DeepFashion-MultiModal dataset, we assess generated outputs through a comprehensive set of quantitative metrics, including Weighted Score, CLIP (Contrastive Language Image Pre-training)-based similarity, LPIPS (Learned Perceptual Image Patch Similarity), FID (Frechet Inception Distance), and retrieval-based measures, as well as qualitative analysis. Our results demonstrate that structured metadata enrichments greatly enhance visual realism, semantic fidelity, and model robustness across diverse text-to-image architectures. While not a traditional recommender system, our framework enables task-specific recommendations for model selection and prompt design based on evaluation metrics.
The use of language models for automatically evaluating long-form text (LLM-as-a-judge) is becoming increasingly common, yet most LLM judges are optimized exclusively for English, with strategies for enhancing their multilingual evaluation capabilities remaining largely unexplored in the current literature. This has created a disparity in the quality of automatic evaluation methods for non-English languages, ultimately hindering the development of models with better multilingual capabilities. To bridge this gap, we introduce M-Prometheus, a suite of open-weight LLM judges ranging from 3B to 14B parameters that can provide both direct assessment and pairwise comparison feedback on multilingual outputs. M-Prometheus models outperform state-of-the-art open LLM judges on multilingual reward benchmarks spanning more than 20 languages, as well as on literary machine translation (MT) evaluation covering 4 language pairs. Furthermore, M-Prometheus models can be leveraged at decoding time to significantly improve generated outputs across all 3 tested languages, showcasing their utility for the development of better multilingual models. Lastly, through extensive ablations, we identify the key factors for obtaining an effective multilingual judge, including backbone model selection and training on natively multilingual feedback data instead of translated data. We release our models, training dataset, and code.