Financial analysis presents complex challenges that could leverage large language model (LLM) capabilities. However, the scarcity of challenging financial datasets, particularly for Japanese financial data, impedes academic innovation in financial analytics. As LLMs advance, this lack of accessible research resources increasingly hinders their development and evaluation in this specialized domain. To address this gap, we introduce EDINET-Bench, an open-source Japanese financial benchmark designed to evaluate the performance of LLMs on challenging financial tasks including accounting fraud detection, earnings forecasting, and industry prediction. EDINET-Bench is constructed by downloading annual reports from the past 10 years from Japan's Electronic Disclosure for Investors' NETwork (EDINET) and automatically assigning labels corresponding to each evaluation task. Our experiments reveal that even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle, performing only slightly better than logistic regression in binary classification for fraud detection and earnings forecasting. These results highlight significant challenges in applying LLMs to real-world financial applications and underscore the need for domain-specific adaptation. Our dataset, benchmark construction code, and evaluation code is publicly available to facilitate future research in finance with LLMs.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have become essential tools for analyzing graph-structured data in domains such as drug discovery and financial analysis, leading to growing demands for model transparency. Recent advances in explainable GNNs have addressed this need by revealing important subgraphs that influence predictions, but these explanation mechanisms may inadvertently expose models to security risks. This paper investigates how such explanations potentially leak critical decision logic that can be exploited for model stealing. We propose {\method}, a novel stealing framework that integrates explanation alignment for capturing decision logic with guided data augmentation for efficient training under limited queries, enabling effective replication of both the predictive behavior and underlying reasoning patterns of target models. Experiments on molecular graph datasets demonstrate that our approach shows advantages over conventional methods in model stealing. This work highlights important security considerations for the deployment of explainable GNNs in sensitive domains and suggests the need for protective measures against explanation-based attacks. Our code is available at https://github.com/beanmah/EGSteal.
Time series forecasting has important applications in financial analysis, weather forecasting, and traffic management. However, existing deep learning models are limited in processing non-stationary time series data because they cannot effectively capture the statistical characteristics that change over time. To address this problem, this paper proposes a new framework, AEFIN, which enhances the information sharing ability between stable and unstable components by introducing a cross-attention mechanism, and combines Fourier analysis networks with MLP to deeply explore the seasonal patterns and trend characteristics in unstable components. In addition, we design a new loss function that combines time-domain stability constraints, time-domain instability constraints, and frequency-domain stability constraints to improve the accuracy and robustness of forecasting. Experimental results show that AEFIN outperforms the most common models in terms of mean square error and mean absolute error, especially under non-stationary data conditions, and shows excellent forecasting capabilities. This paper provides an innovative solution for the modeling and forecasting of non-stationary time series data, and contributes to the research of deep learning for complex time series.
Predicting stock market prices following corporate earnings calls remains a significant challenge for investors and researchers alike, requiring innovative approaches that can process diverse information sources. This study investigates the impact of corporate earnings calls on stock prices by introducing a multi-modal predictive model. We leverage textual data from earnings call transcripts, along with images and tables from accompanying presentations, to forecast stock price movements on the trading day immediately following these calls. To facilitate this research, we developed the MiMIC (Multi-Modal Indian Earnings Calls) dataset, encompassing companies representing the Nifty 50, Nifty MidCap 50, and Nifty Small 50 indices. The dataset includes earnings call transcripts, presentations, fundamentals, technical indicators, and subsequent stock prices. We present a multimodal analytical framework that integrates quantitative variables with predictive signals derived from textual and visual modalities, thereby enabling a holistic approach to feature representation and analysis. This multi-modal approach demonstrates the potential for integrating diverse information sources to enhance financial forecasting accuracy. To promote further research in computational economics, we have made the MiMIC dataset publicly available under the CC-NC-SA-4.0 licence. Our work contributes to the growing body of literature on market reactions to corporate communications and highlights the efficacy of multi-modal machine learning techniques in financial analysis.
Language models (LMs) have exhibited exceptional versatility in reasoning and in-depth financial analysis through their proprietary information processing capabilities. Previous research focused on evaluating classification performance while often overlooking explainability or pre-conceived that refined explanation corresponds to higher classification accuracy. Using a public dataset in finance domain, we quantitatively evaluated self-explanations by LMs, focusing on their factuality and causality. We identified the statistically significant relationship between the accuracy of classifications and the factuality or causality of self-explanations. Our study built an empirical foundation for approximating classification confidence through self-explanations and for optimizing classification via proprietary reasoning.
Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather forecasting, power load forecasting, and financial analysis. In recent studies, MLP-mixer models for time series forecasting have been shown as a promising alternative to transformer-based models. However, the performance of these models is still yet to reach its potential. In this paper, we propose Wavelet Patch Mixer (WPMixer), a novel MLP-based model, for long-term time series forecasting, which leverages the benefits of patching, multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, and mixing. Our model is based on three key components: (i) multi-resolution wavelet decomposition, (ii) patching and embedding, and (iii) MLP mixing. Multi-resolution wavelet decomposition efficiently extracts information in both the frequency and time domains. Patching allows the model to capture an extended history with a look-back window and enhances capturing local information while MLP mixing incorporates global information. Our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art MLP-based and transformer-based models for long-term time series forecasting in a computationally efficient way, demonstrating its efficacy and potential for practical applications.
In recent years, the application of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in financial analysis and investment decision-making has gained significant attention. However, most existing approaches rely on single-agent systems, which fail to fully utilize the collaborative potential of multiple AI agents. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent collaboration system designed to enhance decision-making in financial investment research. The system incorporates agent groups with both configurable group sizes and collaboration structures to leverage the strengths of each agent group type. By utilizing a sub-optimal combination strategy, the system dynamically adapts to varying market conditions and investment scenarios, optimizing performance across different tasks. We focus on three sub-tasks: fundamentals, market sentiment, and risk analysis, by analyzing the 2023 SEC 10-K forms of 30 companies listed on the Dow Jones Index. Our findings reveal significant performance variations based on the configurations of AI agents for different tasks. The results demonstrate that our multi-agent collaboration system outperforms traditional single-agent models, offering improved accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability in complex financial environments. This study highlights the potential of multi-agent systems in transforming financial analysis and investment decision-making by integrating diverse analytical perspectives.
Time series forecasting has become an increasingly popular research area due to its critical applications in various real-world domains such as traffic management, weather prediction, and financial analysis. Despite significant advancements, existing models face notable challenges, including the necessity of manual hyperparameter tuning for different datasets, and difficulty in effectively distinguishing signal from redundant features in data characterized by strong seasonality. These issues hinder the generalization and practical application of time series forecasting models. To solve this issues, we propose an innovative time series forecasting model TimeSieve designed to address these challenges. Our approach employs wavelet transforms to preprocess time series data, effectively capturing multi-scale features without the need for additional parameters or manual hyperparameter tuning. Additionally, we introduce the information bottleneck theory that filters out redundant features from both detail and approximation coefficients, retaining only the most predictive information. This combination reduces significantly improves the model's accuracy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on 70% of the datasets, achieving higher predictive accuracy and better generalization across diverse datasets. Our results validate the effectiveness of our approach in addressing the key challenges in time series forecasting, paving the way for more reliable and efficient predictive models in practical applications. The code for our model is available at https://github.com/xll0328/TimeSieve.
As financial institutions and professionals increasingly incorporate Large Language Models (LLMs) into their workflows, substantial barriers, including proprietary data and specialized knowledge, persist between the finance sector and the AI community. These challenges impede the AI community's ability to enhance financial tasks effectively. Acknowledging financial analysis's critical role, we aim to devise financial-specialized LLM-based toolchains and democratize access to them through open-source initiatives, promoting wider AI adoption in financial decision-making. In this paper, we introduce FinRobot, a novel open-source AI agent platform supporting multiple financially specialized AI agents, each powered by LLM. Specifically, the platform consists of four major layers: 1) the Financial AI Agents layer that formulates Financial Chain-of-Thought (CoT) by breaking sophisticated financial problems down into logical sequences; 2) the Financial LLM Algorithms layer dynamically configures appropriate model application strategies for specific tasks; 3) the LLMOps and DataOps layer produces accurate models by applying training/fine-tuning techniques and using task-relevant data; 4) the Multi-source LLM Foundation Models layer that integrates various LLMs and enables the above layers to access them directly. Finally, FinRobot provides hands-on for both professional-grade analysts and laypersons to utilize powerful AI techniques for advanced financial analysis. We open-source FinRobot at \url{https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/FinRobot}.
The task of financial analysis primarily encompasses two key areas: stock trend prediction and the corresponding financial question answering. Currently, machine learning and deep learning algorithms (ML&DL) have been widely applied for stock trend predictions, leading to significant progress. However, these methods fail to provide reasons for predictions, lacking interpretability and reasoning processes. Also, they can not integrate textual information such as financial news or reports. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) have remarkable textual understanding and generation ability. But due to the scarcity of financial training datasets and limited integration with real-time knowledge, LLMs still suffer from hallucinations and are unable to keep up with the latest information. To tackle these challenges, we first release AlphaFin datasets, combining traditional research datasets, real-time financial data, and handwritten chain-of-thought (CoT) data. It has a positive impact on training LLMs for completing financial analysis. We then use AlphaFin datasets to benchmark a state-of-the-art method, called Stock-Chain, for effectively tackling the financial analysis task, which integrates retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) techniques. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework on financial analysis.
While the progression of Large Language Models (LLMs) has notably propelled financial analysis, their application has largely been confined to singular language realms, leaving untapped the potential of bilingual Chinese-English capacity. To bridge this chasm, we introduce ICE-PIXIU, seamlessly amalgamating the ICE-INTENT model and ICE-FLARE benchmark for bilingual financial analysis. ICE-PIXIU uniquely integrates a spectrum of Chinese tasks, alongside translated and original English datasets, enriching the breadth and depth of bilingual financial modeling. It provides unrestricted access to diverse model variants, a substantial compilation of diverse cross-lingual and multi-modal instruction data, and an evaluation benchmark with expert annotations, comprising 10 NLP tasks, 20 bilingual specific tasks, totaling 95k datasets. Our thorough evaluation emphasizes the advantages of incorporating these bilingual datasets, especially in translation tasks and utilizing original English data, enhancing both linguistic flexibility and analytical acuity in financial contexts. Notably, ICE-INTENT distinguishes itself by showcasing significant enhancements over conventional LLMs and existing financial LLMs in bilingual milieus, underscoring the profound impact of robust bilingual data on the accuracy and efficacy of financial NLP.
Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. Recent advancements in large language models motivate the integrated financial analysis of both sentiment data, particularly market news, and numerical factors. Nonetheless, this methodology frequently encounters constraints due to the paucity of extensive datasets that amalgamate both quantitative and qualitative sentiment analyses. To address this challenge, we introduce a large-scale financial dataset, namely, Financial News and Stock Price Integration Dataset (FNSPID). It comprises 29.7 million stock prices and 15.7 million time-aligned financial news records for 4,775 S&P500 companies, covering the period from 1999 to 2023, sourced from 4 stock market news websites. We demonstrate that FNSPID excels existing stock market datasets in scale and diversity while uniquely incorporating sentiment information. Through financial analysis experiments on FNSPID, we propose: (1) the dataset's size and quality significantly boost market prediction accuracy; (2) adding sentiment scores modestly enhances performance on the transformer-based model; (3) a reproducible procedure that can update the dataset. Completed work, code, documentation, and examples are available at github.com/Zdong104/FNSPID. FNSPID offers unprecedented opportunities for the financial research community to advance predictive modeling and analysis.
As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.
Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential in natural language processing tasks within the financial domain. In this work, we present a Chinese Financial Generative Pre-trained Transformer framework, named CFGPT, which includes a dataset~(CFData) for pre-training and supervised fine-tuning, a financial LLM~(CFLLM) to adeptly manage financial texts, and a deployment framework~(CFAPP) designed to navigate real-world financial applications. The CFData comprising both a pre-training dataset and a supervised fine-tuning dataset, where the pre-training dataset collates Chinese financial data and analytics, alongside a smaller subset of general-purpose text with 584M documents and 141B tokens in total, and the supervised fine-tuning dataset is tailored for six distinct financial tasks, embodying various facets of financial analysis and decision-making with 1.5M instruction pairs and 1.5B tokens in total. The CFLLM, which is based on InternLM-7B to balance the model capability and size, is trained on CFData in two stage, continued pre-training and supervised fine-tuning. The CFAPP is centered on large language models (LLMs) and augmented with additional modules to ensure multifaceted functionality in real-world application. Our codes are released at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/CFGPT.
Long-form numerical reasoning in financial analysis aims to generate a reasoning program to calculate the correct answer for a given question. Previous work followed a retriever-generator framework, where the retriever selects key facts from a long-form document, and the generator generates a reasoning program based on retrieved facts. However, they treated all facts equally without considering the different contributions of facts with and without numbers. Meanwhile, the program consistency were ignored under supervised training, resulting in lower training accuracy and diversity. To solve these problems, we proposed APOLLO to improve the long-form numerical reasoning framework. For the retriever, we adopt a number-aware negative sampling strategy to enable the retriever to be more discriminative on key numerical facts. For the generator, we design consistency-based reinforcement learning and target program augmentation strategy based on the consistency of program execution results. Experimental results on the FinQA and ConvFinQA leaderboard verify the effectiveness of our proposed method, achieving the new state-of-the-art.
Time series has wide applications in the real world and is known to be difficult to forecast. Since its statistical properties change over time, its distribution also changes temporally, which will cause severe distribution shift problem to existing methods. However, it remains unexplored to model the time series in the distribution perspective. In this paper, we term this as Temporal Covariate Shift (TCS). This paper proposes Adaptive RNNs (AdaRNN) to tackle the TCS problem by building an adaptive model that generalizes well on the unseen test data. AdaRNN is sequentially composed of two novel algorithms. First, we propose Temporal Distribution Characterization to better characterize the distribution information in the TS. Second, we propose Temporal Distribution Matching to reduce the distribution mismatch in TS to learn the adaptive TS model. AdaRNN is a general framework with flexible distribution distances integrated. Experiments on human activity recognition, air quality prediction, and financial analysis show that AdaRNN outperforms the latest methods by a classification accuracy of 2.6% and significantly reduces the RMSE by 9.0%. We also show that the temporal distribution matching algorithm can be extended in Transformer structure to boost its performance.