Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown state-of-the-art performance in a variety of tasks, including arithmetic and reasoning; however, to gauge the intellectual capabilities of LLMs, causal reasoning has become a reliable proxy for validating a general understanding of the mechanics and intricacies of the world similar to humans. Previous works in natural language processing (NLP) have either focused on open-ended causal reasoning via causal commonsense reasoning (CCR) or framed a symbolic representation-based question answering for theoretically backed-up analysis via a causal inference engine. The former adds an advantage of real-world grounding but lacks theoretically backed-up analysis/validation, whereas the latter is far from real-world grounding. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing the COLD (Causal reasOning in cLosed Daily activities) framework, which is built upon human understanding of daily real-world activities to reason about the causal nature of events. We show that the proposed framework facilitates the creation of enormous causal queries (~ 9 million) and comes close to the mini-turing test, simulating causal reasoning to evaluate the understanding of a daily real-world task. We evaluate multiple LLMs on the created causal queries and find that causal reasoning is challenging even for activities trivial to humans. We further explore (the causal reasoning abilities of LLMs) using the backdoor criterion to determine the causal strength between events.
Event Causality Identification (ECI) focuses on extracting causal relations between events in texts. Existing methods for ECI primarily rely on causal features and external knowledge. However, these approaches fall short in two dimensions: (1) causal features between events in a text often lack explicit clues, and (2) external knowledge may introduce bias, while specific problems require tailored analyses. To address these issues, we propose SemDI - a simple and effective Semantic Dependency Inquiry Network for ECI. SemDI captures semantic dependencies within the context using a unified encoder. Then, it utilizes a Cloze Analyzer to generate a fill-in token based on comprehensive context understanding. Finally, this fill-in token is used to inquire about the causal relation between two events. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of SemDI, surpassing state-of-the-art methods on three widely used benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/hrlics/SemDI.
The inherent ambiguity of cause and effect boundaries poses a challenge in evaluating causal event extraction tasks. Traditional metrics like Exact Match and BertScore poorly reflect model performance, so we trained evaluation models to approximate human evaluation, achieving high agreement. We used them to perform Reinforcement Learning with extraction models to align them with human preference, prioritising semantic understanding. We successfully explored our approach through multiple datasets, including transferring an evaluator trained on one dataset to another as a way to decrease the reliance on human-annotated data. In that vein, we also propose a weak-to-strong supervision method that uses a fraction of the annotated data to train an evaluation model while still achieving high performance in training an RL model. Our code is available at https://github.com/oyarsa/event_extraction/tree/causal-event-extraction.
Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims to detect whether there exists a causal relation between two events in a document. Existing studies adopt a kind of identifying after learning paradigm, where events' representations are first learned and then used for the identification. Furthermore, they mainly focus on the causality existence, but ignoring causal direction. In this paper, we take care of the causal direction and propose a new identifying while learning mode for the ECI task. We argue that a few causal relations can be easily identified with high confidence, and the directionality and structure of these identified causalities can be utilized to update events' representations for boosting next round of causality identification. To this end, this paper designs an *iterative learning and identifying framework*: In each iteration, we construct an event causality graph, on which events' causal structure representations are updated for boosting causal identification. Experiments on two public datasets show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithms in both evaluations for causality existence identification and direction identification.
Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims at determining the existence of a causal relation between two events. Although recent prompt learning-based approaches have shown promising improvements on the ECI task, their performance are often subject to the delicate design of multiple prompts and the positive correlations between the main task and derivate tasks. The in-context learning paradigm provides explicit guidance for label prediction in the prompt learning paradigm, alleviating its reliance on complex prompts and derivative tasks. However, it does not distinguish between positive and negative demonstrations for analogy learning. Motivated from such considerations, this paper proposes an In-Context Contrastive Learning (ICCL) model that utilizes contrastive learning to enhance the effectiveness of both positive and negative demonstrations. Additionally, we apply contrastive learning to event pairs to better facilitate event causality identification. Our ICCL is evaluated on the widely used corpora, including the EventStoryLine and Causal-TimeBank, and results show significant performance improvements over the state-of-the-art algorithms.
Understanding causality is a core aspect of intelligence. The Event Causality Identification with Causal News Corpus Shared Task addresses two aspects of this challenge: Subtask 1 aims at detecting causal relationships in texts, and Subtask 2 requires identifying signal words and the spans that refer to the cause or effect, respectively. Our system, which is based on pre-trained transformers, stacked sequence tagging, and synthetic data augmentation, ranks third in Subtask 1 and wins Subtask 2 with an F1 score of 72.8, corresponding to a margin of 13 pp. to the second-best system.
Cognitive science and symbolic AI research suggest that event causality provides vital information for story understanding. However, machine learning systems for story understanding rarely employ event causality, partially due to the lack of methods that reliably identify open-world causal event relations. Leveraging recent progress in large language models, we present the first method for event causality identification that leads to material improvements in computational story understanding. Our technique sets a new state of the art on the COPES dataset (Wang et al., 2023) for causal event relation identification. Further, in the downstream story quality evaluation task, the identified causal relations lead to 3.6-16.6% relative improvement on correlation with human ratings. In the multimodal story video-text alignment task, we attain 4.1-10.9% increase on Clip Accuracy and 4.2-13.5% increase on Sentence IoU. The findings indicate substantial untapped potential for event causality in computational story understanding. The codebase is at https://github.com/insundaycathy/Event-Causality-Extraction.
Event Causality Identification (ECI), which aims to detect whether a causality relation exists between two given textual events, is an important task for event causality understanding. However, the ECI task ignores crucial event structure and cause-effect causality component information, making it struggle for downstream applications. In this paper, we explore a novel task, namely Event Causality Extraction (ECE), aiming to extract the cause-effect event causality pairs with their structured event information from plain texts. The ECE task is more challenging since each event can contain multiple event arguments, posing fine-grained correlations between events to decide the causeeffect event pair. Hence, we propose a method with a dual grid tagging scheme to capture the intra- and inter-event argument correlations for ECE. Further, we devise a event type-enhanced model architecture to realize the dual grid tagging scheme. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, and extensive analyses point out several future directions for ECE.
In this paper, we describe our participation in the subtask 1 of CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. We address the Causal Relation Identification (CRI) task by exploiting a set of simple yet complementary techniques for fine-tuning language models (LMs) on a small number of annotated examples (i.e., a few-shot configuration). We follow a prompt-based prediction approach for fine-tuning LMs in which the CRI task is treated as a masked language modeling problem (MLM). This approach allows LMs natively pre-trained on MLM problems to directly generate textual responses to CRI-specific prompts. We compare the performance of this method against ensemble techniques trained on the entire dataset. Our best-performing submission was fine-tuned with only 256 instances per class, 15.7% of the all available data, and yet obtained the second-best precision (0.82), third-best accuracy (0.82), and an F1-score (0.85) very close to what was reported by the winner team (0.86).
In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as cause$\rightarrow$effect$\rightarrow$signal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either cause$\rightarrow$effect or effect$\rightarrow$cause order achieves similar results.